Strasburg: A Sure Thing, Or Not?

ESPN.com's Rob Neyer agrees with the argument Alan Schwarz makes in New York TimesStephen Strasburg is a phenomenal prospect, but we've seen other "can't miss" pitching prospects falter in the major leagues or fail to reach them. Until Strasburg proves himself in the majors, Neyer suggests that we stop preparing to etch Strasburg's name onto a Hall of Fame plaque.

Keith Law argues there's a difference between Strasburg and past pitchers like Ben McDonald and Mark Prior. Law compares Strasburg's career to six pitchers who were also labeled "best college pitcher ever" and finds that Strasburg has the best ERA, struck out the highest percentage of batters and walked the lowest percentage of batters.

And while pitchers drafted first overall haven't overwhelmed as a group, Law concludes that Strasburg "clearly is the right choice, his performance backs it up and the history of the draft doesn't give sufficient ammunition to send Washington in another direction."

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