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Discussion: Mike Rizzo's Team-Building Strategy

Chico Harlan of the Washington Post has some interesting thoughts in the wake of yesterday's deal between the Nationals and Pirates. He argues that this trade was an indication of GM Mike Rizzo's team-building strategy, "which favors reliability over high-yield potential, a counter to predecessor Jim Bowden."

Harlan continues, "the trade, too, commences Washington's attempt to restock a malformed roster on which few outfielders can catch and few relievers can hold leads."

Meanwhile, Dave Cameron at Fangraphs argues that Nyjer Morgan might be more valuable than most give him credit for.

Morgan and Sean Burnett will both plug holes for the Nationals, but is this kind of deal a ticket to respectability for Washington? Is reliability a good return for the upside of Lastings Milledge? Pick a side!


Comments

Jim Bowden's strategy didn't work so why not try Rizzo's?

It's hard to argue that Milledge's upside was worth all the headaches off the field. The guy was a problem in the clubhouse with the Mets, and the problems actually seemed to get worse in Washington. Good luck to the Pirates with that one...

Trading Dukes must be part of it as well.

That trade made no sense for the Nats, I can see you wanna get rid of Lastings.

But you trade your opening day closer for nothing?

If Milledge, Alvarez, McCutchen, Tabata, Lincoln, Morton, and Tony Sanchez live up to some of the hype they will have a good core.

the stat geeks can talk all they want about milledge's upside, but there is no baseball stat for bats**t crazy! bad move by the bucs to sign this diva.

Lets say Milledge never finds it, its still a good trade for the Buccos.

That's got to be the quote of the night, kevin.

661dodgerblue, I agree. They needed room in that outfield for the guys they have coming up. Also, everything points to the first half of this season being fluky for hanrahan. I don't think he can help but get better than he has been. His stuff can be sick at times. If he can learn some control, he could be exceptional. That's a big if, though...

I think that is absolutly the right thing for the NATS to do. I would take constant good performance from 2 guys everyday over the possible huge upside of Lastings. This was a great trade for the NATS.

Rizzo should ask Dave Littlefield how well that "reliability" team building strategy works.....

Maybe Rizzo could hire old Dave to give him some tips

Loving the commentary the past few days from the people who have seen Hanrahan's Baseball Reference page, but have never actually seen him pitch.

for the Pirates sake, I hope they never consider making Hanrahan a "closer". He can't handle that kind of pressure. when the game is out of reach, he pitches well, or at least competently.

He completely implodes when the game is on the line.

I like this trade for the Nats. Milledge was a head-case and diddn't belong wiht the nationals clubhouse chemistry. while Hanrahan should rebound, he was out of options, so it was either wait him out in DC and see if he fixes himself or trade him and they chose the latter. Morgan looked like a solid player when i saw him in April. I know nothing about Burnett, but he seems reliable, like Villone and Tavarez have been more or less.

I think this will benefit the Nats in the short run, but if Milledge pans out the favor will swing towards the Pirates.

I really don't have a big problem with this trade, but the reasoning behind it is completely backward. Reliability over high yield? Isn't that pretty much the same things as taking the 'safe' guy instead of the kid with upside. The result of that strategy is inevitably mediocrity.

Look fellas, I'm in no position to knock a franchise, especially since mine hasn't won in 16 years, but any Nat fan that says this was a good move is lying to themselves. I've been there, the first step is accepting that it wasn't. Not trying to ruffle any feathers, but I think we flat out robbed you guys. And again, Milledge and Hanrahan could become 2 nobodies, but that's basically what we gave up for em. Win win for the Bucs.

I don't agree with the "reliability over potential" line from Chico. Getting Morgan, to me, was all about cultivating the potential of the pitching staff. Even if Milledge reaches his ceiling, he's not a center fielder. And there's much more potential in the rotation as a whole than there is in Milledge. And instilling confidence that these guys can pitch to contact and still get outs is huge. It's just like getting run support for young pitchers.

FIP (fielding independent pitching) shows how well these young pitchers have been performing. All three of these guys also have high BABIPs and low LOB%

Zimmermann: 4.65 ERA, 3.55 FIP
Stammen: 5.44 ERA, 4.32 FIP
Detwiler:5.24 ERA, 3.83 FIP

It's still a hard to evaluate trade because Milledge has sooo much upside, but having Morgan benefits those young pitchers both short term and long term.

Next step: listen on offers for all the vets, including Dunn.

I love how every pirates fan on here feels they know lastings milledge personally and thinks he is some kind of acehole. He made a rap tape and didn't curse, thats will smith-esque if you ask me. And as for his recent distaste with Washington, who wouldn't have distaste playing for that team. They are the only team that makes the pirates look good. And they ask him to rock out in centerfield and be a high obp lead off guy when his entire career he had expectations to be a 20/20 guy that should be used at 2-5 holes in your line up. He will be alright in pittsburgh even if he is an acehole.... see joey porter, barry bonds, van slyke etc. etc.

"Reliability over high yield? Isn't that pretty much the same things as taking the 'safe' guy instead of the kid with upside. The result of that strategy is inevitably mediocrity."

You could have said the same thing about the Lee/Podsednik trade. A big bat was traded for a guy who turned out to be the right piece. I'm not swaying Morgan brings a championship to Washington, just saying the Nats needed outfield defense and desperately. With Morgan, they get that and they deal from a position of strength... the only thing I don't get is why the hell Sean Burnett is implied to be a good reliever. In all honesty, the Pirates probably came out ahead in the deal, but this wasn't a bad deal for the Nats.

Preach.

"Milledge was unavailable for comment, but his father, Tony Milledge, said last night that he hopes going to the Pirates will bring a fresh start.

"Lastings is thrilled to death, I can tell you that," Tony Milledge said by phone from Palmetto, Fla., the family home just across the river from Bradenton, the Pirates' spring home and Lastings' birthplace. "I'm telling you this is a good kid, and I'm not just saying that because I'm his dad. Tell the people in Pittsburgh, please give this kid a chance. He'll give you the shirt off his back, Pittsburgh."

3rd times a charm!

ummm Milledge loved his fresh start in DC... KABOOM. That exploded like bad Ben Stiller movie.

and for those who haven't watched Hanrahan he doesn't ever look like he can focus.

as for the Nats side Morgan was a defensive need. and Burnett well he's better than half the guys they used.

A couple things:

I think Milledge's "head case" problems were a bit overblown in DC. Is he a Cal Ripken or Tony Gywnn, no but he's not exactly Milton Bradley either.

I think this is a win for the Pirates. Simply put they traded two guys at their peak value (Burnett may have been a top prospect 5 years ago but hasn't been a valuable piece for some time) for a pair of players at their lowest possible value. If the Nats had tried to package Milledge and Hanrahan together this past offseason, they would have gotten a good return. Milledge was coming off a great 2nd half and Hanrahan was the best he's been in years. Also both guys were former 'Top prospects' so the pedigree factor was there as well.

@salarycaps

I dont know bro, Hanrahan looked pretty good tonight, from what I hear he's a victim of overuse in the WBC, and just plain bad luck.

I love fangraphs and read Dave Cameron religiously, but he's dead wrong here. Morgan has some value, but he's easily replaceable, Burnett is a soft-tosser, and Milledge and Hanrahan actually have some upside. It's an easy win for the Pirates and a risk well worth taking.

A few things: Tim, check Chico Harlan's resume before you give him much cred. The guy is a beat writer; had the Post sent him to cover Montgomery Conuty, MD politics last year, then he'd be just as qualified to make judgment with respect to that stuff.

The Nats did all they could to minimize Milledge's value, and Hanrahan has ptiched poorly but has really been very unlucky (bad hit rate, bad strand rate, has not given up very many long balls at all and has been dominant with the K's and K/BB). Rizzo trading talent for character is reason number 46 the Nats will continue to stink to High Heaven. Corey Patterson can catch and run, they had that guy already. Morgan at 29 has done nothing better that Patterson (but for a few more walsk and less any power) and has played a grand total of about 55 games at CF in his career. I hope that Rizzo is right and the kid plays great, but these ideas of having mediocre, yet reliable players are just plain stupid.

This game is won by teams that play well and ech and every team that has won it all has done so based upon getting more than expected from the roster. The high upside guys are the key.

Rizzo looking for low upside low volitility guys explains why he hooked up with the Bucs -- they, and their like 13 year? losing streak, have plenty of those guys.

Rizzo got fleeced. Dukes got jobbed, Kearns should be on wiavers right now. Acta cannot manage and should also be gone.

Changing the tenor of te club is most efficiently doen by getting a new leader in the club house. It is way over due. Manny Acta needs to go!

I have been a full Nats STH for the entire run in Washington and I've been a baseball fan since 1970. I have never seen two worse baseball players than Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan.

I cannot understand why all these so called experts talk about 'upside' with Milledge. When you see him play you see he has no baseball instincts. He takes the wrong routes on fly balls, throws to the wrong base, doesn't properly position himself to throw when making a catch, mediocre hitter, cannot hit in the clutch, and had a bad attitude. He was late for the pre-game meeting and was even late for his own surgery to repair his hand that he broke because he cannot bunt.

Joel Hanrahan is single handedly responsible for at least seven Nationals losses this year. Calling him a closer is like calling a short guy "stretch". He NEVER, NEVER did the job as a closer. When you saw him get up in the bullpen, you knew the game was over and that the Nats were going to lose. All this talk about 'stuff' is nice for scouts, but when you see a guy blow game after game after game after game for your team, common sense has to take precedence over 'stuff'.

I don't know that much about Nyger Morgan and Sean Burnett but if even they never play a game for the Nationals, this trade was a steal for the Nats. Addition by subtraction.

I'm from DC. This trade falls into the "Great trade! Who'd we get?" category. I'm no scout but after 2 years I don't see the huge upside in Milledge. Hanrahan may figure it out or not, but it wasn't happening here. Good luck to them both, but time to move on.

"Milledge was unavailable for comment, but his father, Tony Milledge, said last night that he hopes going to the Pirates will bring a fresh start.

"Lastings is thrilled to death, I can tell you that," Tony Milledge said by phone from Palmetto, Fla., the family home just across the river from Bradenton, the Pirates' spring home and Lastings' birthplace. "I'm telling you this is a good kid, and I'm not just saying that because I'm his dad. Tell the people in Pittsburgh, please give this kid a chance. He'll give you the shirt off his back, Pittsburgh."

3rd times a charm!

Posted by: BuccoNation | July 01, 2009 at 07:50 PM


Haha, just wanted to say I lived in Bradenton, Fla for 9 years, weird coincidence.

A few things: Tim, check Chico Harlan's resume before you give him much cred.


If your going to critcize someone, at least address the right person, Tim didn't post this Brian Shephard did, it says so right under the headline.

Meant to quote Chacho on the second line of my post, damn typepad

Milledge may eventually blossom but I just don't think it was going to happen in DC. I think he is more valuable if he is able to learn to play CF. His bat is not as good for a corner OF. The Nats had to get a legitimate CF and Morgan should fill that role. The CF defense has been horrible all year. They have some good young starting pitchers and having good defense behind them can help their confidence.
I do like Hanrahan but the Nats had to get new blood in the bullpen. Maybe they follow this trade up with a Villone or Beimel trade.

Anyone who thinks this was a clear win for the Pirates can explain how getting a headcase outfielder on the DL in AAA and a former 6-yr minor league free agent reliever with a 7.71 whip and a 1.95 whip is somehow better than a starting OF and a lefty reliever with great BAA stats against both righties and lefties.

Milledge is what he is: a first round talent with enough baggage to fill a plane. Pittsburgh may have won the "upside" with this trade, but the Nats needed relievers who could perform and outfielders who aren't late to their own surguries.

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