Discussion: Who Should Start The All-Star Game?

AL= Greinke
NL= Dan Haren

Nice way to see who is here tonight Mike :-)

How can anyone else start for the AL other than superman Grienke? 10-4, 2.00 ERA, 4CG and 5 shutouts. I hope Jon Madden does not lose his mind and go with Verlander instead.

NL will probably be Lincecum and why not? Fan favorite, 9-2 w/140+ K's.

"AL= Greinke
NL= Dan Haren"

I'll go with what he typed, it's easier then spelling the names out.

icedrake523 - I thought Lincecum was there was year? We was selected to the team, but didn't pitch because he had started two days prior or something like that.

yankfan1's got it

Billingsley's numbers arent' close to Haren's or Lincecum's.

AL - Greinke
NL - Haren

No question. Haren's WHIP is otherworldly.

Ah yes, that's right Spieg7. Thanks.

"We still have the best record, and alot has to do with [Billingsly]"

The Red Sox best AL record has a lot to do with Josh Beckett. He should probably be an all-star, but Greinke, Verlander, Jackson and Halladay still blow him out of the water, statwise.

"Billz should be 11-2..."

And Santana shoulda won 22 games last year. Shoulda, woulda, coulda.

"Haren is unbelievable...too much to sustain"

So he shouldn't start because he can't sustain and incredible start?

AL: Greinke, Jackson, Halladay then Verlander.

Halladay has been fantastic, but Greinke has better peripherals, K's, ERA, etc. Verlander again, a worse ERA although I really like the guy as a pitcher. Might get even better than he is. One guy really being underlooked is Edwin Jackson - 1.04 WHIP, 84 hits allowed, 84 K's. 2.49 ERA second to Greinke in the AL.

NL: Haren, Lincecum, Johnson then Cain.

Haren has a .81 WHIP. '95 Greg Maddux-esque. Walter Johnson-esque. He has been incredible. Lincecum and Johnson, both are flat out dominant and showing it. Then Cain, again underrated.

While I agree peripherals like k/bb and whip are important in generally determining how effective pitchers are, I really think the end-all-be-all is ERA. I'm not so concerned how guys get outs, as long as they get them, and I don't care if they let guys on, so long as they strand them. I know having a high whip could have other implications, like short outings, but if a starter is averaging 6+ IP per start, has a borderline higher WHIP (i.e. 1.30+), but can manage an ERA under 3.00, what's the concern?

AL: Greinke
NL: Lincecum (he hasn't allowed a run in 24 innings and two of his last three games have been complete and came very close tonight, He may have started slow for Cy Young standards but he's only getting better, just look at his recent #'s! Haren's not pitching like that!)

if he had run support like our rivals he could be undefeated... so please quit that Billingsley campaign.

"icedrake523 - I thought Lincecum was there was year? We was selected to the team, but didn't pitch because he had started two days prior or something like that."

He was selected but wasn't there because he had "flu-like symptoms."

@ARW
The reason we use statistics like K/BB/ K/9, and BABIP (not so much WHIP) is because it tells us a much more important message, a message that ERA cannot do. This message helps us predict a players future results.

When I see a pitcher who strikes out 10 batters per 9 innings, walks less than 3 per 9 but somehow manages to have a high ERA the first thing I do is look at their BABIP. 9 times out of ten their BABIP is higher than their career average, meaning that he has been getting unlucky. Just by seeing these few numbers I can tell if what we have seen in the past is for real or just a phase.

ERA fluctuates way too much to be considered a reliable stat. It doesn't tell us how good a pitcher really is, it only tells us how lucky/unlucky he has been in the past.

The best statistic to use would be FIP (fielding independent pitching) it uses a pitchers peripheral to generate a number. That number basically shows us what a pitcher's ERA should be when throwing luck aside. It is also easily convertible into runs and then wins.

With that said the starters for the all star game need to be Greinke and Lincecum, they are far and beyond any other pitcher's in the game. I think Greinke is an obvious choice. Lincecum is too when you look at the right statistics. Lincecum is sporting a 1.99 FIP right now, worth 4.7 WAR. Haren on the other hand has a 2.76 FIP, clearly all star worthy, just not good enough to start the game. The reason why Haren's FIP is higher is do in part to an unusually low BABIP and Strand rate. His BABIP is .241, .50+ points under his career average. His strand rate right now is sitting at a ridiculous 84.2%. Once more hits start falling Haren's ERA will begin to elevate. He will probably end up with an ERA around 2.80 and a WHIP of about 1.00.

i know he wont(nor should he) but does anyone think jurrjens or vazquez deserves a spot on the NL roster?

Felix Hernandez - 8-3, 2.63 ERA, 114 K in 116 IP, 2.98

I probably give it to Greinke based on his amazing start to the season, but Felix should get some play in these discussion.

^that's 2.98 FIP.. whoops

NL = Haren
AL = Greinke

NL = Lincecum
AL = Greinke

Already seen Haren start an All-Star game, give me someone new.

'NL: Haren, Lincecum, Johnson then Cain.

Haren has a .81 WHIP. '95 Greg Maddux-esque. Walter Johnson-esque. He has been incredible. Lincecum and Johnson, both are flat out dominant and showing it. Then Cain, again underrated."

HAHAHA, Cain and Johnson over some of the other guys in the NL. You think they should be over Santana? And you call me an ultimate homer...

'Lincecum is 1st or 2nd in EVERY statistically significant category and is clearly dominating hitters. Aside from that, he is the clear Cy Young choice at this point in the season, yet again.'

Lincecum is far from being the clear cut Cy. Right now, you have to include what Haren is doing on a last place team. Also, look at Billz vs Lincecum. They have a similar record, Tims ERA is better, but he has thrown 1 2/3 innings more than than Billz, given up more hits, he has more wild pitches than Chad, etc. Lincecum is having a better statistical, but Billz is becoming that ace we all knew he would be...

AL:Grienke
NL:Lincecum

Grienke because even if he is a one hit wonder, his hit is this year, and hes doing amazing so far.
Lincecum because of his Scorless streak. 23 innings without letting a run score? 19 inning without letting a runner past 2nd? i call that Starter worthy.

AL for sure has to be Greinke.
The NL has to be either Haren or Lincecum, I'd be perfectly fine with either one he chooses to be the starter. I guess it also would depend if either one would be starting on the Sunday before the game, so I'm sure that would have something to do with the decision as well, but I don't know if that effects any at the moment if any do or not. All in all, I just don't see how there can be any kind of argument for anyone else that's not among those 6 listed.

"It's not like Haren shouldn't be mentioned, he's been flat out dominant. Have you seen him pitch? And that ERA should be even lower if you count in the god-awful defense he has behind him."

No doubt he's in the conversation, but seriously, 9 votes to Lincecum's 6? It seems like people look only at the ERA and somehow think that means Haren is having a better year... He's the clear #2, but I don't see the case to jump the Franchise.

CY TIM LINCECUM
CY TIM LINCECUM
CY TIM LINCECUM
FOR THE NL OF COURSE

AND FOR THE AL I THINK ....

MATT GARZ DESERVES IT. HIS RECORD MAYBE LOOK OK BUT I TELL U HE IS WORTH STARTING (JOE MADDEN MIGHT ALSO MAKE HIS OWN PLAYER PITCH)

Grenkie

Lincecum

Of course Haren and Halladay make good arguments as well....

I just want to see Cueto make it

LOOK EVERYBODY GRINKIE IS THE OBIVOUS CHOICE SO IS DAN HAREN, ROY HALLIDAY,
LINICOME,VERLANDER.

BUT I THINK THAT 2 GUYS DESERVE TO BE IN THE ALL STARE GAME AND THOSE PEOPLE ARE:
NL J.MARQUIE
AL T.WAKEFIELD
[WISH THE CUBS NEVER GOT REIDE OF JASON}

Donald for the AL and Haren for the NL.

As much as I'd like Halladay to start Greinke is more deserving.
NL Haren gets the edge over Lincecum.

Also, to the Haren-haters, take into account that Haren is on a horrible team and in a hitter's park, while Lincecum is on a contending team and in a pitcher's park. I won't have an issue if either Lincecum or Halladay start, but it should be Haren and Greinke. And the rest of the guys I mentioned should all make the rosters as well.

Let's be real here... All bias aside, Felix is putting up one of the best statistical seasons and the exchange rate of ERA puts him in line with Lincecum and Haren of the NL. While the same can be said of a couple other pitchers, realize that Felix has statistically the worst defenses behind him and while he has Beltre, Ichiro, and Gutierrez... Lopez and Wlad are average, Johnson has been learning on the job in Johjima's absence, Betancourt and Brayan are ok at their positions to be generous. Detroit has one of the best and KC is somewhere near the middle of the pack. If Seattle defense played to it's potential he would be twice as amazing. Also realize his ERA coming into the Boston game was 0.84 since the 3rd week of May and he should have 10 wins with his pitching. Jackson is not pitching as good as his numbers and Greinke started like this last year and posted a 4.00+ ERA in the second half, I expect the same this year. If we are talking about most dominant, than going by what active players said in a report I saw, Felix Hernandez is considered the most dominant pitcher in baseball by player voting. 2nd was Lincecum, so there's your NL starter, 3rd Halladay, 4th Beckett, 5th Bedard. That's right, Johan didn't even make the list of the Top 5. Neither did Verlander or Greinke. If you are going off of production, well posting a 2.60 ERA give or take with the worst defense in baseball behind you should be notched up.

Felix and Tim should be starting. Even though Bedard has been injured, he's been dominant and while he hasn't started enough to be in this conversation, I think he deserves to go to the All-Star game... Billingsley should go, but he should in no way be a starter and I've seen homers before but the LakersDodgersYankees4Life guy is a total tool. He who said that Kemp was one of the best CFs in the game. Was that before or after he couldn't catch the ball Lopez hit in the Seattle series that cost them the game? Gutierrez would have made that catch probably coasting to the warning track not even sprinting. Then we could look at fangraphs assessed value of the two... Gutierrez $11.4MM (while playing through an eye infection and getting much less at bats, which does effect total value as they have assumed value for each stat and 79 more at bats would mean +3 HR, +3 2B, +10 RBI, +2 SB, +23 H, +12 R, would all raise his value to almost the same as Matt's) and Kemp $15.9MM, and he said that Washburn worth $7.1MM being thrown in with Gutierrez was not enough, even factoring Washburn will have a minimum of B status and get a comp. 1st round pick minimum when they offer arb. This is the type of tool he is. $18.5MM + 1 1st round pick is greater than $15.9MM last time I checked. He's a total tool and should be ignored.

I can't believe this is even open for discussion....The NL Starter is Tim Lincecum (the best SP in MLB!! as well as he will win his 2nd straight Cy Young Award this year)...Dan Haren...ha!!!...if its not him, it will be Matt Cain...these two are the top winners in the NL in the top 3 in ERA and WHIP...and in the top 5 in K's.....the AL is a little more open, but I think it will be Greinke or Halliday.

Santana should not even be in this conversation for a starter in the ALLSTAR game. He is not having a great season, there are several SP in the NL better than him this year...all being mentioned above. Anyways the METS suck!!!! They are the most undisciplined, overrated team in MLB. I would keep Wright and anybody else in tradeable. Plain and simple!!

and leads the NL in wins with his teammate as well!!

Haren and Grienke

With honorable mention to Jackson, Felix, Halladay and KEVIN MILLWOOD! (how has no one mentioned his name here after what he is doing in that park this season)

And to the Dodger Fan trying to force Billingsley into the conversation, please stop

ERA ---- WHIP --- ERA+ -- H/9 ---- W/9 ---- K/9 ---- K/W
2.19 --- 0.809 --- 207 ---- 6.1 ---- 1.2 ---- 8.8 ---- 7.53 – Haren
2.23 --- 1.050 --- 194 ---- 7.2 ---- 2.2 ---- 10.5 --- 4.70 – Lincecum

then the huge drop to
2.48 --- 1.233 --- 174 ---- 7.5 ---- 3.6 ---- 7.3 ---- 2.00 – Cain
2.69 --- 1.119 --- 165 ---- 7.3 ---- 2.8 ---- 6.8 ---- 2.44 – Cueto
2.73 --- 1.241 --- 154 ---- 7.8 ---- 3.3 ---- 6.5 ---- 1.95 – Jurrjens
2.75 --- 1.146 --- 154 ---- 6.4 ---- 4.0 ---- 9.8 ---- 2.48 – Gallardo
2.76 --- 1.128 --- 152 ---- 7.6 ---- 2.5 ---- 7.6 ---- 3.03 – Johnson
3.15 --- 1.372 --- 144 ---- 8.2 ---- 4.2 ---- 6.6 ---- 1.59 – D. Davis
3.05 --- 1.071 --- 137 ---- 7.8 ---- 1.8 ---- 10.4 --- 5.65 – J. Vazquez
3.12 --- 1.255 --- 134 ---- 7.2 ---- 4.1 ---- 8.8 ---- 2.16 – Billingsley
3.21 --- 1.331 --- 131 ---- 8.6 ---- 3.4 ---- 8.2 ---- 2.44 – W. Rodriguez
3.35 --- 1.127 --- 131 ---- 8.2 ---- 3.0 ---- 7.6 ---- 3.83 – Ted Lilly

And when they happen to end up next to eachother like that, you can actually see how similar Billingsley has been to Wandy Rodriguez, not Tim Lincecum.

The difference is that some of us can make the case for our guy... I'm still waiting to hear the Haren for Cy Young argument.

Carpenter would be right there if he had 40 or so more innings. Those 6 missed starts are about 1/3 his season though, so cant really put him in the same conversation.

@ CitizenSnips

Better in what respect? Lincecum leads the NL in CG, SHO, Ks, IP, and is second in Ws, ERA, WHIP. He also has a current streak of 23 scoreless innings, and hasn't allowed a runner past 2nd base in 42 years.

Haren is 1st in WHIP and ERA. He is 3rd in IP, CG and is 4th in Ks. Sure he has a better K/BB ratio, but what does that matter?

Please, make the *intelligent* case for the 7-5 pitcher deserving the Cy Young and ASG start over the 9-2 reigning Cy Young winner who is 1st or 2nd in every significant pitching category...

This harkens back to the ridiculous talk last year that Santana was more deserving of the Cy Young than Lincecum. If anything, I would have given the nod to Webb over Santana, but in reality, Lincecum was dominant, and he is even better this year...

I can't believe it but no santana mention

@ bigdaddyp16

RS/9: Are you telling me that less than half a run a game means anything, especially when Lincecum gave up 0 runs last night and got 9 runs of support that he didn't even need?

Ks/CG/SHO/IP: You're taking these separately, where they admittedly don't make a compelling case. However, what you are overlooking is that Lincecum is dominating in all of these categories, and that is compelling.

K/BB and WHIP: Why are these more meaningful? They are a good measure of how hittable (or unhittable) a pitcher is, but don't clearly measure how dominant a pitcher is any more than the other stats mentioned.

Cy Young: Yes, wins tend to be weighted a little more than they should, which is why Webb was even in the conversation last year. Lincecum was under-supported to a criminal degree in many starts last season, and if he had 5.43 RS/9 then, he would've won 22 or 23 games easily. However, Lincecum still won the Cy Young for precisely the reason that he is the clear choice right now. He is even more dominant statistically this year than he was last.

Haren is having a great year, and deserves to be in the conversation, but he does not make a realistic case for Cy Young or ASG start to this point. His K/BB ratio is always good, and he's getting the ball in the strike zone even more often this year, which is why he has fewer walks, which also explains his WHIP. How does that make him a better or more dominant (HA) pitcher than Lincecum? He's on a hot streak where balls aren't falling in for opposing hitters, and good for him. However, he doesn't have the ability to shut down opposing teams even when not keeping the ball in the strike zone.

"Maybe because this was a post about who should start the All Star Game before the Lincecum fans decided it should be about the Cy Young? Besides, if an ERA+ of 207 doesn't count as some sort of argument in your eyes, then you're really not listening."

The ASG starter for each league should be the Cy Young frontrunner at the half. How else do you select a starter?

And I love all these adjusted statistics... While they do demonstrate some level of equalization, you can't take them by themselves.

Again, the entire body of work of Lincecum and his dominance of so many different stats is much more compelling than Haren's ERA and WHIP.

richard.cordrey,

It just seems obvious that you're extremely biased to Lincecum. You basically just went and looked up all the stats that he lead or was really high in and quoted them. You're right that all of those as a whole are impressive. But I still don't think that there is any doubt that WHIP and K/BB are more indicative of great pitching. Dan leads both of those, and by amazing margins.

A lesser stat that I still think has meaning is Batting Avg against. Dan's is .194, tops in the league, compared to Tim's .221.

And I completely agree with SuzysMan. Tim's numbers are more sustainable and Dan has been prone to drop off in the 2nd half. My unbiased opinion is to start Haren in the ASG, and my prediction is Lincecum will earn/win the Cy Young.

What? The four stats are meaningless? Walking fewer people, allowing fewer hits, and striking out many more then you walk have nothing to do with how well you are pitching? Sorry to tell you, but those three things have almost everything to do with how well you are pitching – it is not even debatable. And with that, Haren has clearly been pitching better.

So let me get this right... You would prefer Haren with a lower WHIP and higher K/BB over Lincecum's ability to shut teams down with Ks, and more IP? You can have him. I'll take the guy who can dominate AND get the wins.

Haren has been slightly better than Lincecum this year up to this point, but that might not be the case when the ASG happens. But, Who do you WANT to see start? Lincecum is the most exciting pitcher in all of baseball right now and we'd all love to see him. He's a mega-star and Haren has had the honor before (and we all know he'll fade in the 2nd half.) So, Lincecum should start. But don't be surprised if Charlie Manual taps Chris Carpenter to start in STL as a hometown favorite.

In the AL, it's Greinke all the way. Sorry, Doc.

Do you know what WHIP is? Baserunners allowed per inning. The more baserunners you allow, the higher the chances of allowing runs. The higher the chances of allowing runs, the higher the chances of losing. And K/BB is MUCH more meaningful than K's alone. It's not even close.

"Seriously, you said Haren has fewer walks because he keeps the ball in the zone. So, why is he also giving up fewer hits?"

Because he's getting the breaks right now... The ball is falling his way, not the hitters'.

I think the fact that Lincecum has a WAR of 5.5 and Haren has a WAR of 3.7 answers this debate.

"Funny thing is, Lincecum has only let up 2 more ER than Haren... Seems to equalize that argument. The point is not the 'chance' of allowing a run, its whether or not you do. Lincecum gets the outs when he has to, an ability that Haren does not share."

So Lincecum, despite pitching in a pitchers park has allowed more runs the Haren in a hitters park? And that is an argument in favor of Timmy?

Also, to the second part
Line Against ------ w/MenOn
.189/.220/.312 --- .185/.219/.262 – Haren
.218/.270/.300 --- .225/.281/.324 – Lincecum

Are you so sure about Lincecum getting the outs he needs to? Last time I checked, a 281 OBP and .324 SLG is higher then a .219 OBP and .312 SLG

I think that the Haren/Lincecum discussion is pretty simple:

Haren has been excellent, but Lincecum has been absolutely freaking brilliant.

His 1.96 FIP is unreal, even when compared to Haren's 2.76 mark.

Lincecum has far more strikeouts, and while he's given up a few more walks, he's also given up just four home runs, compared to the eleven that Haren has gave up this year.

It should be Lincecum and Greinke, and it shouldn't be close.

Because a pitcher's W-L record determines how good a pitcher is. Right.

@ CitizenSnips

Yet again, you are bypassing all of the other categories that Lincecum is leading Haren in...

Oh man. This is funny. Basically cordrey is saying that letting someone on base and preventing them from scoring is better/more impressive than not letting them on base in the first place. HA! I needed a good laugh!!!