In the midst of a renaissance year at the age of 33, it's hard to peg Randy Wolf's value heading into free agency. The left-handed starter has posted an ERA of 3.24 (4.25 xFIP) to go along with a 6.8 K/9 and a career best 2.3 BB/9. Detracting from his value of course, is his injury history. Wolf averaged just 94 innings per season between 2004 and 2007.
Even the Astros had a hard time ascertaining his value in a slumping economy last winter. Ed Wade offered Wolf a three-year deal worth $28.5MM before pulling it almost immediately.
Wolf proved to be one of the biggest bargains of the 2009 free agent class, signing a one-year deal with the Dodgers with a base value of $5MM. Even when factoring in the incentives that Wolf will earn for his 200+ innings, (bringing the total to $8MM) he is still a tremendous value as Fangraphs estimates his worth up to this point to be $14MM.
Jayson Stark sees Wolf as the second best starting pitcher in the 2010 free agent class. Stark also quotes one general manager as saying, "I don't think there's one pitcher in this entire group I'd invest a lot of money in. Not one."
Would you extend a major contract offer to Wolf considering his injury-riddled past? Could Wolf command a contract in the vicinity of $40MM over three years?
