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Cafardo On Cabrera, Penny, Upton

In his latest column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe examines the differing opinions on this year's free agent market and passes on some info from around the majors. The highlights:

  • One National League GM on the top players in this year's free agent class: "[Matt Holliday] won’t get what Mark Teixeira got. No chance. [John] Lackey may get A.J. Burnett money, but I’m not even sure anyone would go that high."
  • A separate source tells Cafardo that many teams will wait out the market this winter, potentially resulting in a few bargains for thrifty teams later in the offseason.
  • Cafardo wonders if the Detroit Tigers would entertain trade offers for Miguel Cabrera, who will make $20MM next season. If so, Cafardo thinks the Red Sox would get involved.
  • The Seattle Mariners believe they're very close to contending, which will mean hanging on to Felix Hernandez and pursuing players like Lackey and Jason Bay this offseason.
  • The San Francisco Giants are interested in bringing back Brad Penny.
  • Cafardo says it "isn't far-fetched" that the Rays could deal B.J. Upton. He suggests Upton's availability will depend on Carl Crawford's future with the team, or lack thereof.


Comments

A Miguel Cabrera to the Saux trade will start with Clay Bucholz.

Maybe, something like Bucholz, Ellsbury, Bowden and Anderson.Even then, I'm not sure that's enough to get it done.

if the angels don't bring back lackey or figgins and the M's can sign bay and and 2 of the following pitchers

/sheets/harden/Duchscherer/Marquis/Wolf/Pineiro

they have a chance in that division

I can't see Cabrera getting traded unless he really started burning bridges in Detroit. He's too good.

As for Lackey, if Cafardo is right, I think whichever team that signs him will get a good deal. I was predicting him to get a similar deal to Burnett, but I think he's better than Burnett. Lackey has proven to be more reliable, both in terms of innings (regardless of injuries) and performance.

There is no way Detroit trades Miggy. End of story.

I don't know what's funnier - the thought that Detroit would trade their 26-year old star player that they are building their team around, or Boston's blinding envy of Cabrera. Someone please tell the Boston media for the hundredth time Cabrera isn't going anywhere...

A Miguel Cabrera to the Saux trade will start with Clay Bucholz.

Maybe, something like Bucholz, Ellsbury, Bowden and Anderson.Even then, I'm not sure that's enough to get it done.

Posted by: angryredmenace | November 15, 2009 at 09:52 AM

NO FREAKING WAY, IT'S NOT LIKE HE'S COSTING 400K A YEAR.

HE IS GETTING PAID 20 MILLION A YEAR

they would trade him if another team picked up maggys contract d-train and bondermen

BxSquad: Perhaps you disagree, but the Red Sox would make that deal in a heartbeat, as they should. Fortunately for you, I don't think Detroit would do it.

Red Sox would have to give up Buchholz, Anderson, Ellsbury, and Kelly to land Cabrera. Anything less, they would fleece the Tigers

Why the hell would Detroit want a light hitting, horrible fielding centerfielder and an over rated pitcher for one of the best hitters in the game?

Cabrera isn't being moved. Yes, he is making 20 mil. but he is one of the few players on that team who earns his paycheck.

Why would the Red Sox give up their number three pitcher, starting centerfielder and leadoff hitter, and two of their top prospects (who make less than 2 million total) for a $20 million a year player? I'd much rather see the Red Sox get Adrian Gonzalez...he is a better player and he's not a scumbag like Cabrera.

This is a Boston newspaper writer who just wants to sell newspapers.

He has no insight into anything.

@ MLB in the Know

And you do?

> "Why the hell would Detroit want a light hitting, horrible fielding centerfielder and an over rated pitcher for one of the best hitters in the game?"

At least this 'light hitting' centerfielder can hit left handed pitching, unlike their current CFer.

Yeah, Holliday isn't worth Teixeira money. Sorry, but Holliday isn't a player that hit about .290 with an AL leading 39 homers and 122 rbi's while winning a gold glove and a silver slugger, and is up for the AL mvp. Boras needs to get real, ASAP.

As for Lackey, I don't think it's possible that he'll get Burnett money. Burnett's 2008 season was an excellent season, and Lackey just doesn't put up the numbers he does aside from wins. Lackey is not an overpowering or a great strikeout pitcher, he has decent stuff, and a knack for getting outs. He won't be up there in the league lead for K's or ERA, but he'll get you wins. Reminds me a little of Chien Ming Wang.

As a Angels fan, the Mariners are the best challenge we have of not making the playoffs next year. With that said, Bay isn't what they need. Lackey, maybe, but that team is more than good enough to put up a fight in the AL West.

the red sox will not trade kelly or westmoreland.. they have plenty of other prospects to get the deal done. we got buchholz, bard, reddick, bowden, kalish, tazawa, anderson, pimental, doubront, exposito, navarro, rizzo, jimenez, federowics, richardson, lavarnway, place, britton.. all in the top 30.. overrated my ass

If Detroit wanted to move Cabrera, the Sox can offer one thing that can make it worth it. The ability to take Mag's contract as well. Detroit wipes 38 mil off the book this year alone, which is almost 40% of their before before arb raises, and in return gets less in total prospect package, but gains much needed salary relief. Playing the partial playing time game with Ordonez through the summer soured the relationship, and I think Detroit would be happy to move on from him a year earlier, and they could receive a package of prospects including Westmoreland, Navarro, and Kelly. Throw in Bowden and you have close o what i believe it would take, may another high ceiling low minors arm like Doubront. Then Detroit can be as active in FA as they care to be, and also free up cash for next year's outstanding FA class.

I do not get why people are going crazy. Is Cabrera going to be traded? Probably not but Cafardo didn't say he was going to be he was just speculating on it. Honestly don't blame a sportswriter for writing about your team possibly trading your young power hitter just because your team is cutting payroll. It isn't his fault your team gave Willis that extension, he didn't let Ordonez's option vest, he didn't give out all the bad contracts that your team did. He isn't saying the Cabrera will get trading he is just speculating on it so quit freaking out.

how many times do people have to say westmoreland and kelly are untouchable!.. theo won't trade them

The only way I want to see Bucholz go to Detroit in a deal for Miggy is if the Sox sign Lackey first, cuz I think after Lackey, Bucholz has the potential to be as good if not better than any other FA starting pitcher. If we sign Lackey, I say go ahead and get Miggy as long as we dont need to throw in Ellsbury, unless we somehow get Granderson as well.

I don't know why Detroit would trade a guy who will be a legitimate MVP candidate for the next 5-6 years, no matter how much he makes. That team will be built around Verlander and Cabrera, and the only one who thinks otherwise is a Boston writer who's still smarting from his team's quick playoff exit. Oh, and the Boston fans who want to believe him.

I would hope the Giants interest in Penny is to allow them to trade a pitcher (other than Tiny Tim) for a bat.

Cafardo is such an idiot, hey I wonder if the Cardinals will make Pujols available, if so I think the Red Sox would get involved. Why don't the Red Sox and Yankees just get every great player. Then we can just have the Yankees and Red Sox play each 162 times then who ever does better can play a High School team to determine who's the champion. I hate Boston and New York so much and Cafardo just writes whatever ideas come into his head. Does he have any facts to back up Miggy is available?

Bosox7796

Tell me why you think the Red Sox would EVER trade Clay Buccholz for "Miggy?"

"I say go ahead and get Miggy as long as we dont need to throw in Ellsbury, unless we somehow get Granderson as well."

So youre saying
Boston Gets:
"Miggy" and Granderson
Tigers Get:
Buccholz and Ellsbury

That is the stupid trade. I cant belive you said that, and You are a Red Sox fan...?


@ MLB in the Know

And you do?

Posted by: soxcurse | November 15, 2009 at 10:31 AM

My sentiments exactly.

"how many times do people have to say westmoreland and kelly are untouchable!.. theo won't trade them"

Saying two guys in the low minors are untouchable is ridiculous. The only players I think are truly untouchable right now are Tim Lincecum and Evan Longoria. If one of those two were offered for both of the guys you mentioned, you don't think your beloved Theo would accept immediately?

For everyone that is saying the Red Sox would have to trade Ellsbury, Buccholz, Kelly, and Anderson, they will not trade Jacoby, or Kelly.'

Why would the Red Sox ever trade Jacoby Ellsbury??

While Cabrera has a very small chance of actually being traded, all of you guys throwing out these ridiculous trade proposals need to get a clue. There is absolutely NO WAY that it would take Buchholz, Ellsbury, Kelly, and Westmoreland. That is WAY WAY more than it would take for Adrian Gonzalez who is a MUCH more valuable player right now due to contractual obligations. There is absolutely no way that it would take anywhere near that. Look at it what it took to get Miggy to Detroit in the first place. It took 2 top prospects for Miggy and Dontrelle. This was also before Willis had become bullpen fodder. Due to his enormous contract, if Miggy was traded (highly unlikely) it would take a package in the range of Buchholz, Bowden, and Reddick, and a MLB ready reliever.

So... it "isn't far-fetched" that Upton gets traded. What kind of a haul are the Rays looking for in return? Are they looking for particular positions? More prospects? Bullpen arms (really good ones)?

why the hell would the tigers trade cabby

Thank you Beckett Lester.

If the Tigers traded Cabrera, that be the one thing Dumbrowski did right. The Tigers traded crap to the Marlins, I wonder if it happens again, but to the Red Sox? This would most obviously be a salary dump, but I wouldn't give up Buchholz or Ellsbury.

Red Sox would have to give up Buchholz, Anderson, Ellsbury, and Kelly to land Cabrera. Anything less, they would fleece the Tigers

Posted by: QueensKing | November 15, 2009 at 10:12 AM

Sold.

"Boras also makes a good point that there are some teams content to make the playoffs two or three times over five or six years, teams that will never go the extra mile for the franchise player to put them over the top." (Cafardo)

An interesting statement by Boras, if indeed he did make it. Could he be referencing the Red Sox, who despite having more money than Fort Knox have crapped the bed re upgrading (or even maintaining) their offense? And the fans just keep on drinking that second-fiddle Theo Kool-Aid.

I hate to agree with Boras but Theo's Scrooge-like attempts fix holes on the cheap is getting old. There's a saying ...if you want to run with the big dogs you need to quit peeing like a puppy. Cash, prospects, whatever, it's time for Sox management to get their legs up higher and get serious about winning again.

why the hell would the tigers trade cabby

Posted by: gottschalk47 | November 15, 2009 at 11:33 AM
___________________________

Because the economy has trashed Michigan in general and Detroit in particular and because owner Mike Ilitch didn't become worth $1.5 billion by making bad investments. The losses can continue for a LITTLE while longer but if team revenue continues to plunge, the Tigers will be forced to have a fire sale. This assessment isn't based on any bias. It's just a cold hard economic reality.

Ha ha @ Beckett_Lester on your D-TrainWRECK comment. I think all Tigers' fans hope Dontrelle moves UP to bullpen fodder...
Anyway, I highly doubt Detroit will trade Cabby, and why would Boston want Cabby if they can get Adrian Gonzalez?
All the Detroit trade talks are becoming a little crazy as well. I'm surprised Verlander isn't already thrown into the mix. I don't blame Detroit for listening to all the offers, though.

"So... it "isn't far-fetched" that Upton gets traded. What kind of a haul are the Rays looking for in return? Are they looking for particular positions? More prospects? Bullpen arms (really good ones)?"

It's really tough to gauge Upton's trade value.

He's developed into an elite defender in center field, but after breaking out in 2007, he had a disappointing 2008 before falling apart offensively in 2009.

He's a patient hitter with plus power and he's stolen 86 bases in the past two seasons, but he's also had issues with strikeouts, and his walk rate took a massive step back in 2009.

The Rays could certainly land a haul for him, his combination of present defensive value and absolutely massive offensive upside make him a really, really interesting piece, he's got the ability to be Carlos Beltran if he can put it all together.

I talk about the Rays, specifically the Matt Joyce situation, among other things (Granderson to the Angels rumors, Looper's option being declined, etc.) on my new blog, Scribbling the Majors.

If anyone's interested, just search "scribbling the majors" on Google, the first page it finds is my Matt Joyce post.

Miguel is younger, more seasoned, and every year he's logged 120+ games he's given you 100+ RBIs. Gonzo walked more this year, but outside of this year he hasn't been one to walk more then Miguel... Fluke year or is he a more patient batter? Don't know.

The only think you really can say is Gonzo has a better contract, until of course he's resigned to a long term deal.

I would hope the Giants interest in Penny is to allow them to trade a pitcher (other than Tiny Tim) for a bat.

Posted by: studio179 | November 15, 2009 at 10:59 AM

i hope they do sign penny, but they will never trade lincecum. he will be a giants his whole career. the best pitcher they might trade would be cain. but sanchez would be the first starter to go.

"Yeah, Holliday isn't worth Teixeira money. Sorry, but Holliday isn't a player that hit about .290 with an AL leading 39 homers and 122 rbi's while winning a gold glove and a silver slugger, and is up for the AL mvp. Boras needs to get real, ASAP."


Yeah, Texeira's numbers weren't even worth $20 million. Look at his numbers down the stretch and in the postseason in 2008. Then, look at 2009. The only thing he did better AT ALL, was hit a few more homeruns. He was virtually non-existent this October. It was all CC and A-Rod.

And a switch-hitter in Yankee pin-stripes should be knocking 50 homers a season with that short porch in RF. If you ask me, Tex was really only worth about $12 million in 2009.

As for Lackey, I don't think it's possible that he'll get Burnett money. Burnett's 2008 season was an excellent season, and Lackey just doesn't put up the numbers he does aside from wins. Lackey is not an overpowering or a great strikeout pitcher, he has decent stuff, and a knack for getting outs. He won't be up there in the league lead for K's or ERA, but he'll get you wins. Reminds me a little of Chien Ming Wang.


What are you smoking??? A.J. Burnett has only had 2 real good seasons in his entire career and has only thrown 200+ innings a few times. He only pitches dominantly in contract seasons. He can't get his ERA below 4.00 most seasons, including this season. Want proof?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/burnea.01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lackejo01.shtml

The biggest difference between the 2 does not show up in any box score or statistical table, it's on the field. Burnett lets the pressure get to his head and, as a result, has serious laspses in control from to time. Whereas Lackey does get fired up, but he buckles down.

I'd take Lackey over Burnett no matter what, hands down.

Teixiera only worth 12 mil?

I laughed almost as hard as I did at the whole concept of Detroit trading away Miggy bit.

Does anyone see the possibility of the Cubs getting Upton for a package revolving around Szamrdjia. Throw in Sam Fuld and Jeff Baker.

Cabrera should have gone to the White Sox in the first place. But chinsy Kenny Williams didnt want Dontrelle. Stupid move KW. They could have flipped him for some prospects before his value tanked. IF Cabrera is available and the Sox could get him I would think Viciedo, Danks and another prospect would do the job. But I just dont see that happening.

"Does anyone see the possibility of the Cubs getting Upton for a package revolving around Szamrdjia. Throw in Sam Fuld and Jeff Baker."

No.

Samardzija has a no-trade clause. But even after that, he just isnt that good. He has pour control and doesnt K nearly enough players to make up for it. In fact, look at his career (both majors and minors)

4.25 FIP 06 in Low A
5.29 FIP 06 in A
4.34 FIP 07 in High A
5.94 FIP 07 in AA
4.81 FIP 08 in AA
4.16 FIP 08 in AAA
3.06 FIP 08 in ML (more on this season after)
4.37 FIP 09 in AAA
5.90 FIP 09 in ML

the 3.06 in the majors is the only positive blip on the record, period. But even it is misleading. The first 10 games he threw 14.2 innings of 0.915 WHIP, 8 H, (4.9 H/9), 5 BB (3.07 BB/9) with 15 Ks (9.2 K/9 and 3.0 K/BB) for a line against of .157/.232/.216/.448. The next 16 Games saw 13 IP, 2.00 WHIP, 16 Hits (11.1 H/9), 10 BB (6.9 BB/9) and only 10 K (6.9 K/9 and 1.0 K/BB) for a .291/.403/.327/.730 line against.

Nothing in his minor or ML track record (sans his first 10 games) indicates the Shark will be that good. I‘m not even sure how he got the prospect ranking he held. But I sure wish Hendry hadn’t given him that No-Trade and dumped him on someone else while he still had trade value.

Tampa Bay wouldn’t be foolish enough to greatly overvalue him in a deal like that. And outside of him, you have merely a 28 year old 5th OF that you can find comparables to on the Minor League free agent market and a 29 Year Old Utility Infielder who we got for nothing.

"rizzo, jimenez, federowics"

We stand corrected. Now that you mention a stud like Federowics...we forgot all about those future Hall-of-Famers.

"Teixiera only worth 12 mil?"


Ok, $15 million, and that's pushing it.

I've seen many a slugger put up bigger numbers while making less money at the exact same stage in their careers. Perhaps, it was a down year for Yankee Stadium standards. Who knows? He might hit 50 HR and drive in 140 RBI in 2010. Juan Gonzalez did it, Albert Belle did it. Why can't Mark Teixeira do it with one of the shortest porches in the history of MLB?

The Red Sox have neglected their offense?? They scored 43 fewer runs then the Yankees. That's the difference between having Martinez for a full season instead of half a season. The less Varitek, the more runs the Red Sox score....

If the Mariners sign Jason Bay I'll hate life.

"Red Sox would have to give up Buchholz, Anderson, Ellsbury, and Kelly to land Cabrera. Anything less, they would fleece the Tigers"


1-There is absolutely no reason for the Tigers to trade Miggy. The have a one-year payroll crunch, and then in 2011, they have almost nothing committed. They should be focusing on spending for 2011, not cutting.

2-The tigers wouldn't come remotely close to getting that kind of haul for Miggy. Last year seemed like about an average year for him, with 34 HRs, a .324 and a .942 OPS. Nice stats indeed. OTOH, Holliday had 24/.313/.909, and Bay had 36/.267/.921.

Why would the RS want a .942 OPS for $21M, instead of a .909 for ~ $18M or a .921 for ~ $15M?

The money alone makes those three pieces interchangeable. The idea that the RS would throw in 4 really good young players is beyond ridiculous.

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