Cole Hamels now owns the second-largest salary in arbitration history ($15MM), and he's not stopping there. Agent John Boggs expects his client to be compensated as an "elite pitcher," and he doesn't consider Jered Weaver's team-friendly five-year, $85MM deal a factor. Explained Boggs to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com:
"I don't think it's a parallel. That contract is great for Jered. I understand it. But he took a different path and left a lot of money on the table. He came up through the Angels system and grew up in their backyard. He's pitching where he grew up. That situation appeals to him. It's a similar situation to when I had Tony Gwynn. Without getting into specifics of what we're looking for, the Weaver situation is unique to Weaver."
Weaver's contract covered his final arbitration year and then four free agent seasons at an average of $17.5MM. Unlike Weaver, Hamels was a Super Two player, and the salary of his final arbitration year has already been determined. Hamels' new contract will probably only cover free agent years. Even if he doesn't reach the $23-24MM range of C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee, I think six years and $120MM is just a starting point for Hamels, who will turn 29 during the 2012-13 offseason.
The Phillies have first dibs. According to Boggs, "When you're this close [to free-agency] you have mixed emotions. But Cole has come through the Phillies organization, and if you asked him his preference, more than likely he'd want to remain with the Phillies. That's how it would be going into the negotiations, but every negotiation is different. Everything depends on our perceived value of what Cole is worth and what their perceived value of him is. That will dictate if a long-term deal gets done. We'll always give the Phillies every opportunity to secure him."
Weaver > Hamels
Agree – gross over payment on Hamels
disagree. if you look at their stats, they actually have VERY similar numbers.
Hamels has a higher career K/9 and lower WHIP.. but Weaver has more wins and a lower ERA.
i wouldn’t say that either is better than the other. Weaver definitely has the bigger, tougher role though as the #1 for his team.
Hamels had a better K/9? I’m honestly surprised by that because it seems like Weaver is more of a strikeout pitcher.
He was in ’10. All of his other years he’s been 7.7 K/9 or lower.
He has a career 7.8 K/9. He only has one year that actually is 7.8 K/9 or higher, and that’s at 2010 with a 9.3 K/9.
weaver is infinitely better than hamels, and hamels is nothing but a one hit wonder.
LOL one hit wonder?… um. hate to break it to ya buddy, but if you take out 2009, his numbers have actually IMPROVED every single year.
in this case, he is actually a “one MISS wonder”.
good try though. glad the philly hate is still around and kickin full strength.
Nope. Maybe slightly but their numbers are pretty close to each other.
So you’re saying they’re perpendicular then?
I like the Rays approach to starting pitching. Draft well, make sure the rotation is always young and talented. When starters get expensive, recycle them like used soda cans. Some orgainzations think great starting pitching is the toughest thing to come by, others feel it’s the easiest!
Its pretty easy when your team has a top-5 pick year after year.
I’m sick of this narrative. David Price was a top pick….but Matt Moore was an 8th rounder, James Shields was a 16th rounder, hellickson was a 4th rounder. The Rays know their stuff, you don’t. End of story
And the Rays were known to go overslot while other teams played by the rules. Don’t worry though, that ship has sailed.
So the Rays “broke the rules” by going overslot?
Matt Moore received a $115k bonus. That was slot.
They didn’t go overslot for Longoria.
They got Desmond Jennings in round 10. Slot.
nice cherrypicking.. every team has drafted good players over the years, its just that the Rays can’t afford to trade them away for established players since they cant pay them like the other teams.
who is cherry-picking exactly? you responded to a comment about the rays approach to pitching with the comment “it’s pretty easy when your team has a top-5 pick every year”
david price is the beginning and the end of the list. niemann was a top 5 pick but has next to nothing to do with their success. their biggest prizes were not products of high draft position and draft position has nothing to do with the brilliant contracts they often sign them to
We call that being smart.
Only David Price was a top pick. Look at a guys like Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore?! Also, just because you have a top pick and use it on a pitcher doesn’t mean ML success for that pitcher.
Whoever gets Hamels will definitely overpay. But based on how he currently “more thank likely” prefers the Phillies, doesn’t sound promising for a Philly return. He won’t take a discount, that’s for sure.
Doesn’t matter what the agent says, its obviously in his best interest to say that to increase leverage. I expect the extension to be ironed out during spring training or early on in the season.
it’s already been said that he will not be granting a hometown discount. He wants every penny of what he deserves…what he thinks he deserves
Weaver is a better pitcher than Hamels is. Hamels CAN BE very good, but he’s not consistant enough to be considered a top 5 pitcher, like Weaver is.
Top 5-
Halladay
Felix
Verlander
Kershaw
Weaver
I’d put Hamels probably 8th behind those 5, Cliff Lee and Tim Lincicum, and slightly ahead of Jon Lester and CC Sebathia for the top 10.
That’s a good list actually.
Somewhere Cliff Lee is crying, wondering how you placed Weaver over him. Sabathia too.
I’d throw Lincecum out there BEFORE Weaver.
Wait. Weaver is better than Sabathia when Sabathia has had the better FIP in 4 of the last 5 years? While 3 of them have been in the AL East? That’s cool.
If we are talking right now, I would not put Weaver ahead of Lee, Lincecum or Sabathia. Lincecum should be about tied with Verlander. I think Weaver currently is about the same level as Hamels. So, he’s somewhere between 8 and 10. If you mean projected over the next five years or so, I’d go Felix, Lincecum, Kershaw, Verlander, Price and then Weaver/Hamels (and, of course, watch out for Stephen Strasburg, Ricky Romero and Josh Johnson).
Josh Johnson cant even stay healthy.
So disappointing. Imagine if he actually could stay healthy. He’d be top 3 in the Cy Young voting if not the winner every damn year.
how is weaver better than lincecum, is there some stat i dont know about , like homerism or man crush and id like another year out of kershaw before we start calling him sandy koufax
A) I agree with vonhayes
B)
Halladay
Verlander
Lincecum
King Felix
Sabathia
Lee
Kershaw
Weaver
Hamels
Lester
If we were talking about over the next 5-7 years then obv Weaver is top 5 along with King Felix, Verlander, Kershaw, and Lincecum (if his arm doesn’t fall off)
kershaw is entering his age 24 season and is coming off 3 great years, most recently a cy young year, and you still need more?
ok
two good , one great , he is good im not dissing your boy over there im just not ready to say he is top five when these other guys have had multiple great years not just the one
i second that, smh
“I think six years and $120MM is just a starting point for Hamels, who will turn 29 during the 2012-13 offseason.”
Pass..
The Phillies are getting the best out of the guy. End o story.
I think we’re going to see a steep regression is offseason spending (at least regarding pitchers) in the coming years. While the team I root for is the main conspirator, a dozen others quickly followed suit. So many are at fault. There was a great article that discussed this the other day during the Montero and Pineda mayhem, about how 99% of the time, a pitchers best years are generally behind them once they sign these mammoth deals.
I’m not implying Hamels is on par with the pack, because he is definitely a notch above the league, but 6,7,8 year deals to pitchers, I think, is a thing of the past. Unfortunately for Hamels and Cain, they maybe the first few to usher in this new era of new deals. I can’t see either at this point getting more than 5 years and $20mm per year, at best. Maybe Cain because he is younger and his stuff should translate a little better among both leagues.
Speaking of my team in particular, I like what the Yankees are doing with all the young top of the rotation arms they may have. Kind of like the Braves, Giants (until recently in terms of cost) and the Rays. It’s ok to have one $20mm+ pitcher on the roster, but that’s what Hamels and the ones that follow him have to realize. Most teams are already max’ed out.
Hamels and Weaver are comparable from a pitching perspective, but not from a contract perspective. Weaver avoided the risk of a season and a half of injury and signed what’s widely seen as a below market deal. Hamels seems bent on seeing free agency. How many top pitchers have gotten to the open market under 30?
Using Dave Cameron’s discussion of linear dollars per win, http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/linear-dollars-per-win-again/, I think 6/125 is actually a conservative number on the open market.
Also, consider the market- Yankees will again be interested in a pitcher, Phillies want to keep him, Red Sox might play and the Dodgers will have a new billionaire owner and hardly any salary commitments. Not to mention potential dark horses like the Nats, Rangers and others.
The Phillies could head this off with a new deal for him before the season, but barring that and injury, he’s looking at a huge payday.
There is also a lot of good pitchers on the market… If his agent uses the Yankees or Red Sox against a team, the team just has to call up Greinke or Cain or Marcum or Lewis or the other like 20 viable FA pitchers…
True, though not all at his level of production. Cain a comp, but right-handed. Grienke had a higher peak than either, but the large markets, particularly in the Northeast, might stay away on the “mental makeup” front. Not saying they should, but they might.
Marcum et al. not in the same category.
Not saying they’re in the same tier, but teams like the Yankees, red sox, dodgers, angels, etc. already have at least one ace, so getting hamels over marcum is more of a luxury.
I would take Hamels over Weaver any day of the week..
I would bet Cashman already has the ridiculous contract offer saved on his computer ready to print out as soon as the deadline for teams to negotiate strictly with their own free agents passes by.
Can’t wit till he hits free agency next year!
Shots fired.
Check again.
Both have two top-6 Cy Young finishes in their career.
Technically, all starting pitchers are a “Cy Young entrant.” I believe contender was the term you were looking for. In that case, like vtadave mentioned above, they both have two top-6 Cy Young finishes with almost identical career stats.
Actually, he was … but riddle me this, how many LCS and WS MVPs does Weaver have?
He was top 5 last year and top 6 in 2007 what are you talking about?
Just look at his name, the guy is an angels homer. End of story.
I would take that argument farther and say that numbers don’t mean anything! lol
I’m sure soxfankev can clean it up if given the chance!
The market is the market, and it determines one’s worth. He’s not overpriced if somebody is willing to pay him $X
is it just me or do agents seem to be getting slimier and slimier
Hamels is an Ace on the vast majority of other MLB teams. He had one semi-down year in which people cooled their praise, that coupled with pitching 3rd in a stacked rotation and people are clouded to how good he actually is.
I like your style.
Oh and homerism, ridiculous amounts of homerism.
Not impossible, certainly if Pujols has a “Pujolsian” season that convinces Moreno to keep spending.
Perhaps, and much will hinge on Haren’s 2012 season. If he pitches well again, I could see him re-signing with the Angels. I do not see them retaining both Haren and signing Hamels. I believe that Angels will look for a younger arm at this point. The Dodgers maybe, but they need to address Kershaw first, which won’t come cheap.
Since the argument is being made, if I was given the choice Weaver or Hamels and factoring in cost, I take Weaver hands down 10 times out of 10. Not knocking Hamels, but I’ve never been overly impressed with him.
Thats what they said with my Phillies last year
and here’s a sample with greater predictive value, the last 4 seasons:
ERA- FIP- SIERA tERA
78 84 3.47 3.76
79 85 3.71 3.41
9 of Weaver’s 33 starts last year came against the Mariners or A’s…
Are you kidding me? The AL West is a joke of division offensively besides Texas… It’s almost like pitching in the National League. Weaver also has the luxury of pitching the majority of his games in a pitchers park versus Citizens Bank Park.
I like you’re although I’d definitely have Felix over Grenkie.
greinke? please
Lol @ Greinke…ridiculous. I will take Hamels, Felix, Weaver and Lincecum, Kershaw and Lester over Greinke any day. Greinke barely scratches the top 10. Besides the Greinke nonsense at number 5 I agree with your top 4. Id have Felix at 5 probably.
How many does Jeff Suppan have?
you have to get there first to attain those honors, besides the pressure factor that’s a pretty weak argument
What are Suppan’s career numbers?
11 of Hamels’ 31 starts were against opponents in the bottom third of runs scored.
Big difference between “bottom third” and “Mariners or A’s”, who were all-time bad.
Your logic is astoundingly brilliant.
I lift things up, I put them down.
what r u smoking?
what r u smoking?
you must be a new fan , i guess the pujols signing is working after all
Which powerful DH does Weaver pitch too in the AL West?
Did the teacher let you use the computer during lunchtime?
the a’s fielded a triple a team that wouldnt have been last in triple a
typo , sorry
it’s relevant. fan graphs essentially has them as equals based on regular season performance. while the fact that weaver hasn’t gotten the opportunity, it can’t hurt him, but hamels’ success can help him.
Hamels is far better than Haren so I could see the Angels in on him as an upgrade for an absolutely killer 1-2 punch.
Nice book mr typical yankee fan but you wouldnt know how good hamels has been. WS MVP and a proven ace.
my point was that if Weaver was given the opportunity, he could do it. Granted i’m not one to argue towards anything having to do hypotheticals (I hate sabermetrics) but I’m not the one figuring out Hamels’ contract.
Yes he is…Just because one team is willing to pay him a certain amount does not mean his production is worth it. Thats like saying that the Sox did not overpay for Lackey or Dice K.
Strange how their SIERA and tERA are effectively flopped. Why is that?
Thats what he just said
wow i didnt realize , but occasionally i go watch the a’s play on dollar dog nite , aka every wednesday nite , and they are just pathetic at the plate , watching a whole team a slap hitters just isnt nice at all
ha, toronto signing somebody
one worlds series ring >no worlds series ring
Yeah. Once again, what are you smoking?
If you are talking about career WAR totals it is because of his 09 season where he put up a 9 WAR that he even comes close to the other guys . That season is nearly half of his WAR total in 7 seasons (not couting 06). Last year his WAR was 1.7…All the other pitchers I mentioned had higher WAR last year. Even if you look at the two most recent years 1.7 and 2.3. Lincecum in 5 season has a 23.2 WAR. Lester in 4 seasons has a 21 WAR. Weaver has a 26.8 in 6 seasons. So according to WAR all these pitchers are superior to Greinke. I would have Greinke at maybe 8-10 on my list.
Huh?
You know Hamels gets among the worst run support in the league right?
You do realize that Hamels pitched ONE GAME IN Safeco Field and Weaver pitched ONE GAME in Sunlife stadium…
I think you’re just trolling now.
as much as id hate to admit it , you might be right about the salary cap
good thing they resigned that guy to make a push for next year, maybe he was injured or just hit a pop fly to the tune of his 240 avg
not on the giants. hes after lincecum and cain and possibly bumgarner.