Orioles To Extend Adam Jones

6:29pm: It's a six-year, $85.5MM contract according to Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun (all four Twitter links). There is no seventh year option but there is a no-trade provision, and escalators could push the total value to $91.5MM. Jones will earn $8.5MM in 2013, $13MM in 2014 and 2015, $16MM in 2016 and 2017, and $17MM in 2018 with a $2MM signing bonus.

In terms of total value, it's the second largest largest contract among active center fielders behind Matt Kemp's eight-year, $160MM deal with the Dodgers.

SATURDAY, 5:27pm: Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports that the deal is done and an announcement could come today with a press conference tomorrow.

FRIDAY, 10:42am: The deal will cover six years and fall in the $85MM range, Rosenthal and Morosi report (on Twitter). This means the deal will buy out Jones' final arbitration year (presumably for $9-10MM) and five free agent seasons at approximately $15MM per year.

7:41am: Adam Jones is the best player on the first-place team in baseball's most competitive division and the Orioles aren't going to let him slip away. They are nearing a long-term contract extension with the center fielder, Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports report (plus Twitter links).

Jones completed his physical yesterday and the sides are in the process of completing the final details of the contract. The Orioles are making a commitment "well north" of Miguel Tejada's six-year, $72MM contract and Nick Markakis' six-year, $66MM extension, Rosenthal and Morosi report. This means the CAA Sports client will sign the largest contract in Orioles history. Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun expects the deal to be for five or six years and $80-90MM.

Jones, 26, is earning $6.15MM this year as a second-time arbitration eligible player. The extension will buy out one year of arbitration eligibility and an unknown number of free agent seasons.

Jones is hitting .311/.357/.601 in 196 plate appearances this year. He's on his way to establishing career-highs in home runs (14 so far) and slugging percentage. Though he has a career on-base percentage of .322, his walk rate and on-base percentage are both on the rise.

Earlier this month Dave Cameron of FanGraphs compared Jones' breakout to Matt Kemp's 2011 season and suggested an extension in the $120-140MM range could work for both sides. Check out MLBTR's Extension Tracker for more comparable contracts.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.


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127 Comments on "Orioles To Extend Adam Jones"


Manny Being Manny
3 years 3 months ago

This is absolutely great news for Orioles fans. Only thing I’m worried about is that we might be signing him a bit above his value since Jones is playing over his head atm.

mrsjohnmiltonrocks
3 years 3 months ago

 Agree-great news for Orioles fans. If you manage to get your hands on such a skilled ballplayer, you really ought to do all you can to keep him around.

3 years 3 months ago

As an O’s fan, I’m thrilled to keep him around.  His offensive numbers have gone up each year, he’s a 2009 Gold Glove winner and All Star(and hopefully a 2012 All Star).  Is he playing a bit over his head right now, possibly. Unfortunately, for the O’s to keep retaining the top notch talent that they already have(Jones, Wieters, Bundy someday) and get high quality players in free agency, they need to prove they can stay in or around first place for multiple years, not just a quarter of a season.  Until then they will have to over pay for any talent.  There are no hometown discounts for sub-70 win teams.

burnboll
3 years 3 months ago

Adam Jones still has a low walk rate, a high strikeout rate. And his HR/Flyball rate is unsustainable.

Everything is pointing towards him being a good player, valued at 5-7 mil a year. But 15?

No. Never. Not a chance.

Look, I like the Orioles, but contracts like these are the Orioles mini version of the Ryan Howard/Jimmy Rollins/A-Rod/Albert Pujols/Carl Crawford/Jayson Werth contracts. 

They make the payroll less flexible, and hurts the Orioles chance at building a team for winning in the long run.

MB923
3 years 3 months ago

 Depends on what you define as $ value. If I’m not mistaken, Fangraphs does $5 mil per 1 WAR, which in my mind is a little bit too much.

notsureifsrs
3 years 3 months ago

that isn’t a theoretical figure. the number comes from what has actually been spent on the market

WAR itself is theoretical, so there’s some wiggle room there. but the dollar values come directly from transactions in free agency

LazerTown
3 years 3 months ago

If he can sustain his production so far this year for the next 6 years than it will be a fair contract for both sides.  If he can’t it is a bad contract for the team.  I doubt he will keep up his production.  This is a bad contract for a player through his first 5 years hits about 20 hr/ .320 obp/  and he isnt even good at stealing bases, he gets caught too often.

3 years 3 months ago

Probably a little over-priced, but consider this….what would the Yankees, Rangers, Cubs, Phils, etc. offer him once free agency hit? For right now, it may be a (very) small bargain. Plus, it gives Duquette and the fans a little piece of mind, not potentially losing their # 1 (?) player.

Jake White
3 years 3 months ago

They’ll regret this one.  He’s good but he’s not going to be worth $15M a year.

Matt_P102
3 years 3 months ago

The Os can’t get any decent free agents to come to Baltimore even if they overpay, so if they didn’t spend the money on Jones, they’d use it to buy a closer and an over-the-hill DH or 1B. Might as well spend it on him instead even if they have to overpay.

Casor_Greener
3 years 3 months ago

Yeah they will overpay and be looking bad in 2-3 years

3 years 3 months ago

Might want to check your math again. 

mike melusky
3 years 3 months ago

So far he’s been worth $15M this year, and we’re only a third through the season.

chico65
3 years 3 months ago

So you think the O’s will still be jonesing for quality players?

3 years 3 months ago

If Adam Jones is worth 120-140 million, I dont know what the baseball world is coming to. Good player, yes. Top salary deserving player? Absolutely not

Edited to Adam, that shows you how much he doesnt deserve to be in the 120 range :)

3 years 3 months ago

 It’s a good thing “Andrew” Jones won’t be getting signed to a contract extension then, isn’t it?

3 years 3 months ago

I think the only thing that proves is if you can’t get his name right, you don’t know what you’re talking about.

OrangeCards
3 years 3 months ago

 He isn’t worth it … because you don’t remember the first name of an all too early MVP candidate? Solid logic.

3 years 3 months ago

Yeah, thats great logic you provide. Take 7 weeks of a hot start and turn it into a 120 million dollar contract.
Bautista had over 50 homers and was one of the top 3 hitters in baseball and one of the better overall seasons of the last decade for an entire season and people complained about him getting 14 million on average. What was your argument again?

OrangeCards
3 years 3 months ago

 1. I simply questioned your logic that he isn’t worth it because YOU don’t know his name.

2. It’s not going to a 120 million dollar contract.

I think the concerned with Bautista centered around the late, out of nowhere (2000+ PA of .729 OPS) , possibly tainted (I couldn’t help myself) monster season at the age of 30 being signed to a 5 year deal.

Jones is an entirely different situation. He was a touted prospect, showed flashes of talent in his early years, and might be poised to breakout in his age 26 season.

LazerTown
3 years 3 months ago

Still will be overpaid.  It is highly unlikely that he will keep up with this production from how he has played in the first 5 years of his career.

20 hr/ .320 obp does not deserve $15M/year

Leonard Washington
3 years 3 months ago

Way over priced but nice to see the Orioles retaining a quality player. 

Manny Being Manny
3 years 3 months ago

Well, we don’t know its overpriced yet, thats just one guys guess on the salary. I’m thinking more along the lines of 7 years/105 million.

Leonard Washington
3 years 3 months ago

Hopefully your right because that would be a lot more reasonable. All estimates have been high though. Good for the fans either way. Maybe I will live to see Baltimore go big on a free agent. 

3 years 3 months ago

Andruw Jones makes $2 million. 

Adam Jones however, is worth $120 million over 8 years, IMO.  When you have the opportunity to lock up your best player, a gold-glove winning CF, who hits .300/.350/.900,  with 30+ HR’s – in the prime of his career; you do it. 

3 years 3 months ago

Lets not get carried away here. He is a career .278/.322 hitter and not one time hit over 25 hrs in one season. Lets see if he can hit those once before we say he can do it throughout his prime.

3 years 3 months ago

When has he hit any of those numbers other than the first 7 weeks of this season? He’s never even been above an .800 ops guy. His highest year of War was a 3.4. That is not an 16-19 million dollar player. Hell, those numbers don’t even put him in Alex Rios territory.

Manny Being Manny
3 years 3 months ago

The WAR is very misleading for Adam Jones, imo. The scouts and managers have always said he’s one of the best defensive OFs in baseball, yet the fielding sabrs rate him low.. but I dunno, I’d believe baseball professionals who have watched players play defense for years over potentially faulty fielding sabrs.

3 years 3 months ago

And 100 times out of 100 I’d believe the numbers that can’t lie and have no bias.

OhthePossibilities
3 years 3 months ago

Numbers don’t lie, but if the equation used to calculate said numbers is created by man, then they are indeed falliable.

3 years 3 months ago

Obviously they’re not perfect, but I’d still trust them over someone saying they “like his defense.”

LazerTown
3 years 3 months ago

You dont like the experts giving jeter gold gloves every year?

3 years 3 months ago

When he retires they’ll call it the Derek Jeter Award for Outstanding-Looking Defense.

johnsilver
3 years 3 months ago

 Actually? A few decades late.. George Scott, (who WAS a terrific GG fielder up until he ballooned up to over 250++ lbs) may have a claim to that dubious distinction 1st, only The Boomer actually was a great fielder originally before and jeter never was..

Boomer got overweight as his excuse and flat out couldn’t move at 1b. jeter has just gotten old it seems and cut down even more on his range.

Still.. It is comical how some players can (and did) continue to receive GG they clearly didn’t earn, while players like Crisp never did the the ones they should have.

OrangeCards
3 years 3 months ago

It’s been noted by others that Jones and Markakis both have extreme home / away fielding splits for their careers. They both seem to pass the eye test, both put up solid defensive numbers on the road, and for some reason, in their home ball park, they both put up surprisingly low numbers.

I think the problems lies more with Camden Yards and the defensive metrics than it does with just Jones.

3 years 3 months ago

A common theory among Orioles fans is that UZR, in particular, is broken at Camden Yards. All our supposed best fielders have massive home/away splits.

3 years 3 months ago

Think you are failing to comprehend the strategic importance of this signing as it portends to the Oriole’s future, and the message it conveys to future extensions for the likes of Matt Weiters, Jake Arrieta, etc.  These are the Oriole’s we are talking about; whom have had significant historical trouble attracting free agents.  If you have to slightly over-pay to lock up one of the more promising players in the game, you do so.

Furthermore, 120/8 = $15 million/year for the ages of 26 – 34; and this is clearly all speculation on the terms of the deal.  Look at the 16 – 19 million dollar players you make reference to, Vernon Wells, Carl Crawford, Ryan Howard, Torii Hunter, Alfonso Soriano, Jason Bay, Joe Mauer.  Jones will prove to be a superior player than all of them, is substantively younger, and subsequently has significantly more years of prime production to offer.

Additionally, the statistical analysis you provide has been based on his production from years 20 – 25, upon which he has improved statistically in each season.  This is his age 26 season, which is also the year Matt Kemp experienced a huge breakout season, and Jones appears to be on his way there, as well.  With 14HR’s through 45 games – he would have to incur injury to not clear the 30HR target; and even if his numbers decline to the .285/.340/.800 range, you’re still looking at a $14-15 million player per MLB’s documented demand.

PSUOrioles
3 years 3 months ago

Well said!

3 years 3 months ago

Once again, failed logic. You look at locking him up to a contract similar to that of Upton who has been far superior and every sense of the word. 12 million should be the absolute ceiling on any contract that Balt signs Jones to. This smacks of Vernon Wells and comparing him to Kemp is just an absolute farce. Take those glasses off. Is he a good player? Absolutely. Is he a premier player deserving of a top 15 contract? Give your head a shake.

notsureifsrs
3 years 3 months ago

 might he become one now, though? yes. and that’s the gamble they’re taking here

you might be right that it’s a poor gamble. but they’re certainly not paying for his past performance here. they’re paying according to a forecast

LazerTown
3 years 3 months ago

In all likeliness he will not live up to the contract.  Most of the times when a player is in his 6th year and he gets off to a fast start it is just that, look at what he has done in his career so far as a reference point.  And so far he has shown the inability to take enough walks.

LazerTown
3 years 3 months ago

The rays have shown that they can win year in and year out without giving out bad contracts. 

And the rays opening day payroll was 65M compared to the O’s payroll of 84M and their highest paid player is pena at 7.25M Who is a steal at that price, he doesnt hit for avg, but he still manages 30+ hr and a solid obp

MB923
3 years 3 months ago

Good to see Jones improve each and every year. I don’t think he’s a great player (yet) but he’s having a great season thusfar and Perhaps will become a great player.

We shall see how much they offered though. 9 figures would be a lot of money.

I really hope they give him a lot less than what the Jays originally gave Vernon Wells (I say this because I think they are similar players, and I’m not talking about the Vernon Wells of today of course)

formerdraftpick
3 years 3 months ago

I forsee a future mlbtraderumors article on how the Jones deal impacts the negotations and contract potential for Hamilton.  Hint. Hint.

MB923
3 years 3 months ago

Very good point. Watch Hamilton ask for more than double the amount Jones would get.

Orioles2012
3 years 3 months ago

I dont get why everyones saying hes not worth the money. First of all, hes had 4 Major leage seasons, his average is around .280 and its been constantly going up year after year, he’s won a gold glove and will win many more in my opinion, he has the ability to hit many homeruns, steal alot of bases, and make incredible plays in the outfield. He has a great throwing arm in the outfield. If there is one downside to him its that he swings too much sometimes, but hes young and hes working on improving and ive seen an improvement with his plate selection lately. It seems like hes just starting to really come into his own and I think the next couple seasons will be big ones for him. Also, his numbers arent going to be as good as some of those great players that are in really good lineups. He’s played in pretty awful lineups in the first couple years of his career so of course his RBI’s and runs scored will not be among the leaders. The Baltimore people love this guy and O’s needed to sign him or the fans wouldve went nuts. I think the contract numbers will be somewhere around 7-8 years $108-$112 million.

LazerTown
3 years 3 months ago

avg is a pointless stat, obp is much more relevant.  His obp is way too low for this much money, his obp is only about middle of the pack for his position, and usually is near the low end.  He is also not the leader in power for his position.  From this I get middle of the pack player, certainly overpaid.

johnsilver
3 years 3 months ago

” obp is much more relevant”

I always get a chuckle when OBP is looked at as the most relevant statistic by some people. there are some out there who just obliterate that one.. Say Dave “kong” Kingman for instance..

LazerTown
3 years 3 months ago

Reason it is more relevant: there is no real difference between a single and a walk.  So why would you look at avg when it doesn’t include many ways to get on base. 

Prime example: carlos pena had an avg of .227 last year, if you only look at avg then no team would sign him, but he had an obp of .357.

Obp is not the only stat that is valuable, but it is certainly much more useful than avg.  Only looking at avg is like comparing players based upon how many rbi they have, is may be moderately based upon how good they are, but it is very innacurate if you want to determine skill.

danistheguy
3 years 3 months ago

Word around Baltimore is it could be in the 6 year/$85-90 range. That would be a STEAL.

MB923
3 years 3 months ago

I don’t call that a steal at all. That’s probably the most he may be worth.

danistheguy
3 years 3 months ago

 I would say it’s fair, how about that. Fair = steal in baseball these days, honestly.

MB923
3 years 3 months ago

That’s fair too.

chico65
3 years 3 months ago

If they can get him for that much, it’s a steal if he continues his progression and fair market value if he doesn’t, but regardless of his future performance it shouldn’t interfere with retaining the other young studs, which is the real win IMO.

melonis_rex
3 years 3 months ago

And, barring injury or major regression, he gets 100MM+ if he hits free agency. 

LazerTown
3 years 3 months ago

wrong, if he progresses he may be fair to slightly undervalued.  If he continues with what he has done he will be way overpaid.  players that his 20 hr/ 25 doubles/.320 obp DO grow on trees.  There is no need to commit 85M to that kind of production.

He is a moderate player, but there is no need to pay him like the superstar he isn’t.

For comparison, during his career he is near the bottom of obp for cf/ and only around middle of the pack for power.  Certainly one of the most overrated players imho

Not to mention that in his career his obp after as break is 30 points lower, and it would probably be more significant but he along with the rest of the O’s had a very strong 2nd half of 2010.

mike melusky
3 years 3 months ago

keep in mind that 5 of those years are FA years.

BravesWillWin
3 years 3 months ago

Remember when The Orioles were going to give The Braves this guy for Prado and Jurrjens?

I think we should have tried to work that deal with them now lol. 

MB923
3 years 3 months ago

Prado has been just as good as Jones has, maybe even better because he actually even has a higher WAR than him so far this year (Prado 2.4, Jones 2.0)

Don’t forget that the O’s also wanted top prospects from the Braves.

OrangeCards
3 years 3 months ago

To be fair, you’re using BR and not Fangraphs which has Jones at 2.8 to 2.5 for Prado.

And looking at the BR numbers, Prado seems to gain his advantage on a 1/4 season of defensive statistics. Far too small of a sample size to mean much of anything. Jones has posted a oWAR of 2.2 to Prado’s oWar of 1.7.

That said, anyone who watches the Orioles regularly would tell you that Jones’s defense is improved this season after making adjustments to his positioning.

MB923
3 years 3 months ago

I will agree that Jones is better offensively, or at least power wise, and I suppose it’s irrelevant to compare them defensively at 2 different positions.

I don’t think 1 has been more valuable than the other though

OrangeCards
3 years 3 months ago

 Offensively Jones has been more valuable, perhaps significantly so. Keep in mind, Jones is providing these numbers from a less offensive position.

OPS: Jones .958 Prado .884

Defensively, the positions don’t matter. WAR accounts for that. It’s the sample size. 1/4 season isn’t worth much, and based on what I’ve visually seen from him, he’s playing better defense this year.

It’s hard to argue they’re equal, when Jones has .075 edge in OPS and he’s doing as a CF.

MB923
3 years 3 months ago

I never said their offense was equal value. When I was talking about value it combines offense and defense. And I already said Jones is better Power wise (given the OPS as you provided and also has a higher slugging %). Although Jones K/BB rate is terrible (34/10) whereas Prado’s is excellent (21/20)

And if you wanted to ask me who would I rather have right now, it would be Jones (well maybe not for the $ but overall I’d say Jones will be beter especially in a few years as his numbers increase year after year whearas Prado’s numbers fluctuate)

OrangeCards
3 years 3 months ago

Sorry, I think the .075 gap in OPS trumps any K/BB rates.

So, if Jones is significantly better offensively, and you can’t draw any serious conclusions from 1/4 season of defensive data, how do you figure they’re equal? Earlier you suggested Prado might be better?

MB923
3 years 3 months ago

 Again, I never said better with the bat. I said Maybe better overall. And slugging %, nor OPS is not always the best way to judge batters by

For the record, Prado has had an .809 OPS or higher in 4 of the last 5 years. 2012 obviously isn’t over and for now as you pointed out Jones has an OPS of .958, but he’s never even had an .800 OPS season

Heck Bernie Williams had an OPS in his career of .858. Ichiro’s career OPS is .789. I’m pretty sure we know which one will be the HOFer

I’m only using OPS because you are. I think you’re overvaluing it though especially when you’re comparing 2 different types of ballplayers.

OrangeCards
3 years 3 months ago

You do realize OPS is OBP (Prado’s strength) + SLG (Jones strength) right? If we don’t judge a hitter by his OPS, use a different stat, but BB/K rates isn’t it. The stat you originally used, WAR, when looking at their oWAR, it doesn’t favor Prado either.

And this wasn’t a discussion of their careers, but rather who has been more valuable this year. Those numbers are irrelevant.

So like I said, if Jones is clearly offensively superior this year, how are they equal, if not Prado being better? What numbers support that idea?

MB923
3 years 3 months ago

 This year is still early.  Jones may decline, Prado may decline. Jones may get better. Prado may get better. Pujols has an OPS of .625, would you take any batter with an OPS above that ahead of Pujols?

Once again, I NEVER said Prado’s bat was better nor did I say their Bats were equal.

And again if you’re going to constantly use OPS, look at their careers and see who’s been better.

As I said, look at Ichiro who has an OPS in his career under .800.

OrangeCards
3 years 3 months ago

 You said … “Prado has been just as good as Jones has, maybe even better because he actually even has a higher WAR than him so far this year” …

I’ve been disputing that point the entire time while you’ve dodged it. Their career numbers are not important as we were talking about THIS YEAR.

So, if Jones is better offensively, how is Prado just as good, if not better overall THIS YEAR?

MB923
3 years 3 months ago

Because there is more to WAR than OPS. I NEVER said Prado was better offensively. I don’t know how many times I have to repeat that.

chico65
3 years 3 months ago

Makes you want to smakc your head against a wall, huh?

BravesWillWin
3 years 3 months ago

 I wasn’t being totally serious with what I said.

Jurrjens for Jones would have been the only deal I would have done. Anything more than that would have been overpay.

MB923
3 years 3 months ago

Agreed with that. Or Prado for Jones also. Not both though.

OrangeCards
3 years 3 months ago

 from earlier ^

I AM saying Jones is better offensively this year, YOU said Prado was as good, or even better overall this year. I’m asking you how you get to that point? What numbers support that?

OrangeCards
3 years 3 months ago

 Because so far, you’ve cited Bernie Williams and Irchro’s career OPS, and Pujol’s slow start this year to back up the idea that Prado has been better than Jones this year.

MB923
3 years 3 months ago

That’s because you’ve been using OPS as your entire argument and nothing else. If Jones’ season is better because he has a better OPS, than Bernie Williams had a better career than Ichiro. 

MB923
3 years 3 months ago

Defense + SB/CS ratio. (6/1 Prado, 6/4 Jones)

OrangeCards
3 years 3 months ago

As I’ve said, Jones has been repositioned and is playing better defense this year. Fangraphs likes his numbers too, but as I’ve said 1/4 season of defensive number is next to worthless.

and LOL at the SB/CS ratios. You cite this as though it makes up for a .075 OPS difference between a CF and a LF? You’re not serious, right? You do know it’s already considered in the BRoWar you tried to cite earlier that gives Jones the edge?

MB923
3 years 3 months ago

SB and CS are a part of WAR on both sites. Matter of fsct, Jones 4 CS lead baseball. And both sites list Prado as the better fielder this year. And a .075 OPS difference is not as big as you’re making it out to be because both have a very high OPS. And as I said Ichiros OPS is below. 800. Which makes every hitter in history above his better than him According to your theory.

OrangeCards
3 years 3 months ago

 Still, Prado has not been greater than, or equal to, Adam Jones this season as you claimed.

You can pick out specific numbers where Prado was better than Jones, but when you add them all up, Jones comes out on top.

MB923
3 years 3 months ago

Hate to say it, but that is your opinion. Just like it is my opinion that Prado has been more valuable.

Prado has been better according to B-Ref, and Jones has been better according to FanGraphs.

To each his own.  

Now we can end it lol

OrangeCards
3 years 3 months ago

 but that BBRef number is based on 1/4 season of worthless defensive statistics. They say you need 3 SEASONS to get an accurate read on a players defensive rating.

 As someone who watches every game, I can tell you his defense is improved this year, and not below average SSS BRef suggests.

The numbers that are reliable say Jones has been better thus far and certainly not Prado.

But yeah, it’s over.

OrangeCards
3 years 3 months ago

And what a disaster that would of been … hmm, I seem to remember some fans against such an idea and some fans for it. Things that make you go hmmm …

Nashville_Os_Fan
3 years 3 months ago

 No, I remember when the Braves wanted Jones for Prado and Jurgens. The Orioles never considered such an absurd offer. They also wanted a couple of the young pitching prospects on top of that

3 years 3 months ago

What I remember is the Orioles laughing in your faces and saying they needed two of Hanson, Vizcaino, Teheran, et al. as well

BravesWillWin
3 years 3 months ago

 Yeah, and when they said that, notice the discussion never came up again?

We could have resurrected Babe Ruth for less than getting Adam Jones.

3 years 3 months ago

He sure would have looked great in a Cardinal uniform….

Manny Being Manny
3 years 3 months ago

6 years/85 mil? I can live with that. I’m glad it didn’t get into that really high range the Fangraphs guy was talking about.

MB923
3 years 3 months ago

That’s about what he’s worth. Good deal for the O’s. Would have been crazy to see a guy with 1+ good seasons (2009 and so far this year) to get a 9 figure contract.

3 years 3 months ago

Kemp had one good season did he not?

MB923
3 years 3 months ago

No he did not have 1 good season. He had 3 good seasons followed by a season which he nearly won the triple crown and was the real MVP.

3 years 3 months ago

Kemp  is a one time allstar as is Jones

MB923
3 years 3 months ago

All star games only have to do with the first half of the year. Phil Hughes was an all star in 2010 but finished the year with an ERA above 5. In the same season and same league, Felix Hernandez was Not an all star, but he won the Cy Young award

MB923
3 years 3 months ago

As I mentioned above, I’d say Jones is more similar to Vernon Wells (not today’s Vernon Wells). Equal OPS+, Similar slash lines, Wells better with the bat by a bit, Jones better defensively (might be a lot better defensively with Wells declining, but Wells had good seaons with the glove too).

burnboll
3 years 3 months ago

I don’t think Adam Jones is close to what Vernon Wells was at his best.

Adam Jones is having a career year, Wells was a standout for several years, drew walks at a higher pace.

And Wells defence was just as good as Adam’s IMO.

Vernon Wells’s just lost the desire to win, got a little older. But there are som signs he’s having a slight rebound this year IMO.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Vernon Wells second part of 2012 will be better than Adam Jones’s.

MB923
3 years 3 months ago

“I don’t think Adam Jones is close to what Vernon Wells was at his best.”

Maybe that’s because Adam Jones hasn’t reached his best yet.

As I pointed out, similar slash lines and the same OPS+. Already mentioned also Wells had good years with the glove but he declined. Froom 2002-2012, Wells has had 5 seasons of + UZR/160 and 6 seasons with -.

Small sample in some of those seasons of course. And for Jones from 2006-2012, 3 seasons of +, 4 seasons of – (it’s very good this year thusfar)

“I wouldn’t be surprised if Vernon Wells second part of 2012 will be better than Adam Jones'”

Now that’s a stretch there.

burnboll
3 years 3 months ago

Look at the walk rate. Look at the strikeout rate. Adam Jones only draws walks on 5% of his at bats, which is what Albert Pujols have been doing this year and everyone has been on Pujols case for how low his walk rate is.

Adam Jones is getting a lot of his flyballs converted into HR’s and hits, that’s just not gonna continue.

My point is basically that had his improved numbers come across the board, with better walk ratio, lower strikeout numbers, and what not, Adam Jones improvement would’ve been for real.

But Orioles should be vary that his production will get closer to his historical production soon.

And that’s not a 15 mil/year production.

MB923
3 years 3 months ago

 Jones in 2010 had a 3.0 WAR which is “worth” $15 million and in 2011 had a 3.4 WAR which is “worth” $17 million.

If they had given this to him in the offseason I woudl have said bad move, but if he hits the way he’s hitting or comes close to it, then it could be worth it.

melonis_rex
3 years 3 months ago

The point with Pujols is that his walk rate was significantly lower than in past years, which could be indicative of a decline in skillset and plate discipline.

Also, positional value. Jones is a CF, while Pujols is a 1B. A 1B who can’t take walks and hit for power (or make up for it with a phenomenal OBP ala John Olerud) is not valuable, and a potential franchise-crippling problem if you just signed a 1B to a 250MM contract. 

Jones can walk at a 5% clip and still be a top tier CF year in year out. The bar is significantly lower for good CF offense due to the defensive requirements for the position.

Rabbitov
3 years 3 months ago

Adam Jones is 26 . . . 

burnboll
3 years 3 months ago

Adam Jones is a player the Orioles needs to be extremely careful with.

He’s hitting flyballs for HR’s at an unsustainable pace.

But if you look at his strikeout rate and walk rate, he’s a strikeout king as well as only drawing around 5 percent walks (same as Pujols this year, who supposed to have a down year so far).

I think Adam Jones have a lot of potential, but Dan Duquette needs to sit down and do the Sabermetics on this guy, and he will see that he should not offer him more than 6-7 million a year for a 6-7 year deal. Give the guy a contract that sets him for life.

And if he’s not willing to take it, be fine with him walking away. And instead work with some other prospect in the minors.

The last couple of years have shown that the mega contracts aren’t paying off quite like they should. Better to re-build.

For the record, I like what Adam Jones’ has done so far, but for all you on the Adam Jones band wagon, look at his HR/Flyball ratio, his Walks, and such.

Even if Adam Jones would be keeping this up, it wouldn’t be in many other teams other than the Orioles and at Camden Yards, so Orioles doesn’t have to be worried about other teams making a big play for him (if they do, they’re stupid).

Rabbitov
3 years 3 months ago

I think your facts are right but your perspective in incredibly pessimistic and warped.  Jones has played thus far as a 23-25 year old, you can’t base his entire career off of that.  You also pretty much ignore the shallow OF market, his position, the fact that the contract doesn’t even go into Jones’s mid thirties, the fact that it doesn’t handicap the franchise (who have exactly one major league contract on the books after 2015, Adam Jones), that any number of teams would have made this deal, and that Jones is right now the leader of the team. 

Also your last paragraph is not grammatical English, so I don’t know how to respond to it.  

Rabbitov
3 years 3 months ago

Jones overpriced?  He is 26 and we have him until he’s 32, basically throughout his prime, at a good price per year.  Great deal for the O’s. 

MB923
3 years 3 months ago

He’s not overpriced Nor at least to me, is he underpaid. (Therefore, The Price Is Right). If they had given this to him in the offseason, I think everyone would have had a difference of opinion at that time.

burnboll
3 years 3 months ago

The age doesn’t matter if Adam Jones isn’t gonna be a stud the next six years.

Maybe the O’s have a good idea that they can develop Adam Jones further, but he’s still a long way from being a superstar. He needs to get the walk and SO rates fixed.

MB923
3 years 3 months ago

Agreed on that.

Rabbitov
3 years 3 months ago

Age does matter because theoretically it means you don’t get his decline years on contract.

notsureifsrs
3 years 3 months ago

i think “great deal” is an overstatement. it’s medium-risk with a good deal of potential reward. jones has a very high ceiling and he’s established a floor as a good player. having said that, a commitment of this magnitude to a guy like jones is a gamble

Rabbitov
3 years 3 months ago

I don’t know which contracts aren’t a gamble. I’d take Jones during his prime years for around 14.1 a year over a ton of recent free agent contracts which extend big bucks into decline years. I really like this contract, and there are plenty of Jones extensions I really would not have liked.

OaklandFan22
3 years 3 months ago

Great move, this guy is a stud!

3 years 3 months ago

It’s a good move, but wow though 6 yrs @ 80-90 million.
If I were GM, I would have waited till the end of the season, because I want to make the playoffs this year dagnabit! I would have used some of that money the Orioles are alledged to be giving to Jones today and added pieces (trade or free agency) to the current team and make an all out playoff run for 2012. I gotta believe all of this would have paid for itself with the exponential increase of revenue due to new found fan support at Camden Yards for their “Why Not” playoff run. 

OrangeCards
3 years 3 months ago

 This doesn’t change his contract for this year. It buys out his last year of arbitration, and 5 years of free agency. We’ll still have money to add other pieces, if we get to that point.

Climb down off the bridge, Lefty.

melonis_rex
3 years 3 months ago

jones’ extension changes none of this. it doesn’t change his salary for 2012, and probably reduces his 2013 salary, since he would’ve easily received  more than 10MM in arbitration next year. 

Guest
3 years 3 months ago

Wow, Angelos is finally using that money he’s been stealing from the nats all these years.  Took long enough.

MB923
3 years 3 months ago

And money stolen from the Yankees lol

anthony88
3 years 3 months ago

the only thing now the Orioles have to fix is attendance

Butterflyy89
3 years 3 months ago

Actually were averaging somethinvg like 28K /game and had a walk up crowd of 11,000 last night

CommissionerBart
3 years 3 months ago

I’m glad to see the O’s (and Jones) having great years so far.  But I don’t think it will last.  I doubt the O’s are going to return to living up to their proud winning tradition until Angelos removes himself from the scene totally, preferably by selling.  Moreover, it seems likely to me that a liquidation of just about all 26 or 27 and over talent needs to be undertaken to havest young potential standouts in  building  for the future.  Hopefully, all the young talent obtained will “ripen” contemporaneously.

buckeyereds
3 years 3 months ago

I love seeing the O’s lock up their best player.  As a Reds I saw this with Cueto, Bruce, Phillips, and Votto.  I am happy for O’s fans and hope other medium payroll teams do the same.

burnboll
3 years 3 months ago

Well, IMO Jones isn’t their best player.