Headlines

  • Yordan Alvarez Shut Down Due To Setback With Hand Injury
  • Giants Exercise 2026 Option On Manager Bob Melvin
  • Astros Place Jeremy Peña On Injured List With Fractured Rib
  • Tucker Barnhart To Retire
  • Tyler Mahle To Be Sidelined Beyond Trade Deadline
  • Reds Release Jeimer Candelario
  • Previous
  • Next
Register
Login
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors

Remove Ads
  • Home
  • Teams
    • AL East
      • Baltimore Orioles
      • Boston Red Sox
      • New York Yankees
      • Tampa Bay Rays
      • Toronto Blue Jays
    • AL Central
      • Chicago White Sox
      • Cleveland Guardians
      • Detroit Tigers
      • Kansas City Royals
      • Minnesota Twins
    • AL West
      • Houston Astros
      • Los Angeles Angels
      • Oakland Athletics
      • Seattle Mariners
      • Texas Rangers
    • NL East
      • Atlanta Braves
      • Miami Marlins
      • New York Mets
      • Philadelphia Phillies
      • Washington Nationals
    • NL Central
      • Chicago Cubs
      • Cincinnati Reds
      • Milwaukee Brewers
      • Pittsburgh Pirates
      • St. Louis Cardinals
    • NL West
      • Arizona Diamondbacks
      • Colorado Rockies
      • Los Angeles Dodgers
      • San Diego Padres
      • San Francisco Giants
  • About
    • MLB Trade Rumors
    • Tim Dierkes
    • Writing team
    • Advertise
    • Archives
  • Contact
  • Tools
    • 2025 Trade Deadline Outlook Series
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Agency Database
  • NBA/NFL/NHL
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors
  • App
  • Chats
Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Attempting A Model For Projecting Free Agent Starting Pitcher Salaries

By Jeff Zimmerman | October 24, 2013 at 11:04am CDT

Some ideas are better in theory than in practice. I was tasked a while back by MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes to come up with a free agent salary system similar to the one Matt Swartz created for arbitration salaries. To put it simply, it was a failure. After coming to a agreement, Tim and I decided to scrap the idea and go our separate ways…until about a week ago when I decided to look at the problem a different way.

By using a weighting of similar production and age, a player's contract can be estimated by using a few comparable contracts. It is way too close to the hot stove season to create an estimate for all players, but I was able to scrap together a list starting pitcher salary estimates.

Below are my model's projected salaries using the top 21 free agent pitchers (ignoring Masahiro Tanaka and the recently extended Tim Lincecum). Also, the expected contracts from MLBTR's free agent profiles were added if one has been given.

Note: The salaries are based on inflation-adjusted 2013 salaries. If salaries increase 10% across the board this offseason, the values need to be adjusted accordingly. A confidence value is added. The closer the value is to 0, the more pitchers are similar in production to the pitcher in question.

Similarity Projections Expected Contract
Name Years Total Salary ($M) Confidence (0 is best) Years Total Salary ($M)
Ricky Nolasco 2.6 $40.5 14 3 $36
Ubaldo Jimenez 2.7 $39.6 28 3 $39
A.J. Burnett 1.9 $24.3 36 1 $12
Bronson Arroyo 1.8 $23.4 28 2 $24
Hiroki Kuroda 1.6 $21.2 33 1 $16
Tim Hudson 1.6 $17.3 62 1 $9
Paul Maholm 1.7 $15.2 46 1 $7
Roberto Hernandez 1.5 $10.8 57 1 $5
Scott Feldman 1.2 $7.9 99 2 $17
Scott Kazmir 1.2 $5.7 417 2 $16
Josh Johnson 1.0 $2.2 68 1 $8
Total 18.7 $208.1 18 $189
Ervin Santana 2.5 $36.5 17
Dan Haren 2.3 $29.5 24
Jason Vargas 1.7 $17.9 34
Chris Capuano 1.5 $14.0 64
Bartolo Colon 1.4 $12.2 159
Matt Garza 1.6 $10.7 22
Phil Hughes 1.3 $8.1 67
Jason Hammel 1.4 $7.3 21
Wandy Rodriguez 1.1 $5.7 90
Roy Halladay 1.0 $4.2 107

Overall, the values hold up decently. The Similarity Projections estimate almost the same length in contracts, but thinks about $20M more will be spent. Also, with the the years in decimal format, it can be seen how uncertain a player may be in getting a certain number of years on his deal. For example, I have Tim Hudson at 1.6 years and $17.3M. Adjusting those values to one year, he gets $10.8M. It would increase to $21.6M for two years.

Individually, nothing seems completely out of whack. The one contract with the largest disagreement so far is Scott Kazmir's. Basically, there aren't many pitchers that don't pitch at all for two straight seasons and then come back to post an ERA near 4.00. The three most similar pitchers were Chris Capuano (2011), Jake Westbrook (2011) and Carl Pavano (2010). The trio averaged 155 innings in their comeback season and only 26 innings in the two seasons before their comeback. While I used more than three samples for the above value, the three averaged a salary of $9.4MM for 1.3 years (or adjusted to $7.3M for one season or $14.5M for two seasons).

Also, Roy Halladay's projected salary seems a bit out of place, but not many pitchers his age have gotten huge guarantees after the season he had last year. One of the top comparable contracts was the one Roy Oswalt signed in in 2012 at $5MM. Oswalt was younger and was coming off a better season.

The elephant in the room is Matt Garza. Demand has been limited in the past for starters who have averaged only 150 innings over the past three seasons. Unreliable pitchers have unreliable contracts. In terms of innings total, he is getting lumped in with the like of Shaun Marcum and Francisco Liriano. For example, last season Liriano had thrown 480 innings combined in the three previous seasons, with a noticeably worse ERA, but ended up with only a guaranteed 1-year deal for only 1MM. However, prior to his most recent contract, Jorge De La Rosa had similar numbers and received a three-year, $32MM deal. Right now, I think expectations may be a bit high on Garza's salary, since teams are willing to pay more for a reliable starter.

The model was just a year off with Lincecum, predicting $47.4MM over 2.9 years. That is equivalent to a a two-year, $32.7MM contract. The Lincecum deal is the first salary to determine how much salary inflation there is this season. His two-year, $35MM deal works out to 7% inflation. It is way too early to set an exact inflation amount, but it is something to keep an eye on.

The best part about this finding is that we should be able to complete the projection model well in advance of free agency next season, which could lead to a greater number of predictions. At the very least, the starting pitcher salaries that are handed out this offseason should serve as a reference point for future studies that will allow us to better set expectations for the free agent market.

Share 1 Retweet 12 Send via email0

Uncategorized

Arbitration Eligibles: Baltimore Orioles
Main
Arbitration Eligibles: Los Angeles Angels
View Comments (0)
Post a Comment

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Please login to leave a reply.

Log in Register

    Top Stories

    Yordan Alvarez Shut Down Due To Setback With Hand Injury

    Giants Exercise 2026 Option On Manager Bob Melvin

    Astros Place Jeremy Peña On Injured List With Fractured Rib

    Tucker Barnhart To Retire

    Tyler Mahle To Be Sidelined Beyond Trade Deadline

    Reds Release Jeimer Candelario

    Dave Parker Passes Away

    Griffin Canning Diagnosed With Ruptured Achilles

    Pirates Reportedly Have Very Few Untouchable Players At Trade Deadline

    Griffin Canning Believed To Have Suffered Achilles Injury

    Mariners Looking For Corner Infield Bats; Ownership Willing To Bump Payroll

    Wander Franco Found Guilty Of Sexual Abuse

    Mariners Place Rowdy Tellez On Release Waivers

    Max Meyer To Undergo Season-Ending Hip Surgery

    Whit Merrifield Announces Retirement

    White Sox Sign Noah Syndergaard To Minor League Deal

    Corbin Carroll Placed On IL With Wrist Fracture

    Hoops Rumors Has The Latest On NBA Draft, Free Agency

    Mets Option Francisco Alvarez

    Reds To Promote Chase Burns For MLB Debut

    Recent

    Yordan Alvarez Shut Down Due To Setback With Hand Injury

    Jorge Mateo To Miss 8 To 12 Weeks With Hamstring Strain

    Reds To Sign Buck Farmer To Minor League Deal

    Pirates Trade Hunter Stratton To Braves

    Rockies Designate Sam Hilliard For Assignment, Select Austin Nola

    Orioles Select Jacob Stallings, Designate Emmanuel Rivera For Assignment

    Rangers Select Billy McKinney, Transfer Tyler Mahle To 60-Day IL

    Marlins Claim Nick Nastrini

    Giants Exercise 2026 Option On Manager Bob Melvin

    Poll: What Will The Twins Do At The Deadline?

    MLBTR Newsletter - Hot stove highlights in your inbox, five days a week

    Latest Rumors & News

    Latest Rumors & News

    • Sandy Alcantara Rumors
    • Luis Robert Rumors
    • Alex Bregman Rumors

     

    Trade Rumors App for iOS and Android App Store Google Play

    MLBTR Features

    MLBTR Features

    • Remove Ads, Support Our Writers
    • Front Office Originals
    • Front Office Fantasy Baseball
    • MLBTR Podcast
    • Trade Deadline Outlook Series
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Agency Database
    • MLBTR On Twitter
    • MLBTR On Facebook
    • Team Facebook Pages
    • How To Set Up Notifications For Breaking News
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors

    Rumors By Team

    • Angels Rumors
    • Astros Rumors
    • Athletics Rumors
    • Blue Jays Rumors
    • Braves Rumors
    • Brewers Rumors
    • Cardinals Rumors
    • Cubs Rumors
    • Diamondbacks Rumors
    • Dodgers Rumors
    • Giants Rumors
    • Guardians Rumors
    • Mariners Rumors
    • Marlins Rumors
    • Mets Rumors
    • Nationals Rumors
    • Orioles Rumors
    • Padres Rumors
    • Phillies Rumors
    • Pirates Rumors
    • Rangers Rumors
    • Rays Rumors
    • Red Sox Rumors
    • Reds Rumors
    • Rockies Rumors
    • Royals Rumors
    • Tigers Rumors
    • Twins Rumors
    • White Sox Rumors
    • Yankees Rumors

    Navigation

    • Sitemap
    • Archives
    • RSS/Twitter Feeds By Team

    MLBTR INFO

    • Advertise
    • About
    • Commenting Policy
    • Privacy Policy

    Connect

    • Contact Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • RSS Feed

    MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

    Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

    hide arrows scroll to top

    Register

    Desktop Version | Switch To Mobile Version