The Twins ended the 2024 season with a bitterly disappointing slump in September that pushed them out of the playoff picture at the very end of the year. Budget constraints forced them to follow that up with a generally very quiet offseason, however, and they entered 2025 with mostly the same team as last year aside from a few small additions like Danny Coulombe and Harrison Bader. Given that lackluster offseason, perhaps it’s not a shock that the Twins are currently 40-44, four games out of the final AL Wild Card spot and 12.5 games back of the Tigers in the AL Central.
Minnesota would have to leapfrog five clubs in the standings just to secure a Wild Card berth. On the other hand, they have a 25.6% chance at making it to the postseason, according to Fangraphs, with a roster that looks quite intimidating on paper. Injuries to Pablo Lopez and Zebby Matthews are certainly frustrating, but even without those pieces, the Twins have a solid-looking roster. The offense is centered around a pair of stars in Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa who are complemented by the likes of Willi Castro, Bader, and Ryan Jeffers. The rotation features a legitimate front-of-the-rotation arm in Joe Ryan, and the bullpen is anchored by an excellent dynamic duo of Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax.
Unfortunately, the cracks in the roster quickly begin to show up when you look at the roster’s performance this year. While Buxton has been as much of a star as advertised, Correa has been a below-average hitter this year with a 93 wRC+ after a brutal start to the season. He’s hit more like himself in recent weeks, but continues to show a concerning lack of power. Matt Wallner was unable to sustain a hot start, Brooks Lee hasn’t been the hitter Minnesota was hoping for, and a handful of expected contributors are languishing in Triple-A due to poor performance. The rotation has nothing concrete behind Ryan, with even Bailey Ober posting an ERA north of 5.00 on the year. And despite possessing the second-best bullpen in baseball by FIP, the unit’s 4.32 ERA is well below average.
That leaves the Twins as one of the many teams stuck between buying and selling as July kicks off. It’s not too difficult to imagine a return to form from Correa and better results from a bullpen with excellent underlying numbers being enough to pull Minnesota back above .500, or at least stop them from falling out of the race completely until Lopez and Matthews eventually return. All of that reason is sound enough, and it’s surely played into comments from president of baseball operations Derek Falvey last week that indicated selling is not something the team is “focusing on” at this point.
For a team that could be just a starting pitcher or two away from a second-half surge, buying and hoping to get into the dance understandably holds some appeal. Correa and Buxton aren’t getting any younger, after all, and key pieces like Lopez, Duran, and Ryan are all slated to reach free agency following the 2027 season. With only three pennant races to go until the Twins will need to make some major changes, a sell-off this summer could leave the team with little reason for optimism headed into the final years of their stars’ prime seasons.
On the other hand, the Twins already suffered one painful collapse last year and have limited resources due to financial constraints placed by ownership. A sale of the team could be in the works, and it could be argued that, between the number of potential contenders jockeying for a seat at the table in the AL and the very limited supply of clear sellers this summer, the Twins would be better off selling some of their pieces and regrouping for the future, when they figure to have more certainty on an ownership level.
Young pieces like Lee, Wallner, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, all have years to go before free agency. The arrivals of players like Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins should help the lineup make up for the eventual declines of Correa and Buxton. It’s certainly possible to make an argument that the Twins are set up relatively well for the future, and a few savvy sell-side moves could keep their theoretical window of contention open for much longer. Adding another top prospect or two to the mix alongside Jenkins and Rodriguez could keep the team relevant for years to come.
Of course, another possibility would be to split the difference and do a bit of both. Perhaps rental players like Castro and Coulombe are dangled and replaced internally, while the team uses some of its controllable depth to acquire a starter or two. That sort of balanced approach could make plenty of sense, as could the approach teams like the Cubs and Pirates took to the deadline last year where they added controllable, longer-term assets like Isaac Paredes and Isiah Kiner-Falefa to simultaneously improve the current club while also building for the future.
How do MLBTR readers think the Twins should approach this deadline? Should they trust the team they’ve constructed to make up for last year’s collapse and add? Should they take advantage of a potential seller’s market and see what they can get for some of their best pieces? Or should they take the middle road and do a bit of both? Have your say in the poll below:
They should just sell. The team.
As solid a bet as trotters v generals!
They play in the AL Central. You’re never out of the race unless you’re the White Sox.
Last year the AL Central produced three play-off teams. This year, the Tigers have the best record in the AL. Your comment is a couple years out of date.
Status quo performance through the ASG says the Twins should sell. The team looks to be at the end of its competitive window right now. There’s little ceiling at the top end of their MiLB talent pool, and many of their contributors have less than 3 years of team control left.
Ryan, Ober, Lopez, Jeffers, Larnach, Vazquez, Duran, Jax, Stewart, Bader are all free agents after 2 more years.
Correa looks like a major drag on team performance compared to his salary, but at least it starts dropping.
Buxton’s value is at an all time high.
I think it’s time to sell and start a rebuild. That said, I don’t think the Twins will do anything but hold pat because they’re committed to steady policy as the ownership attempts to sell.
I’m a long time Twins fan going back to the early 80’s. I’ve seen them build up teams and then tear them down. This team they have right now is WAY more talented from a pitching perspective than anything they’ve had in the last decade but unfortunately now they are deficient on the offensive side of the diamond and are now hamstrung by Correas bloated albatross of a contract. They never should have resigned him. Buxton has done well this season after a slow start in April but his whole career has been hot periods and Longgggg droughts where he can’t stay healthy and or can’t hit a ball to save his life. If I was Falvey I would be talking to the two guys and do everything in my power to convince them to waive their no trade clause. If Buxton were to waive his clause to a handful of teams I’m sure they could unload him quickly. Correa on the other hand they might have to match a good chunk of his remaining contract to get rid of him. His contract is downright awful.
This team’s competitive window has closed. Ownership did not bring in enough offensive pieces to compliment the starters and they are absolutely anemic on offense. Unfortunately until the Pohlads sell nothing more will happen except losses.
Can’t say I share your opinion on the quality of pitching or Correa’s contract hamstringing the team as it starts dropping $5MM next year.
Lopez career ERA / FIP = 3.84 / 3.61
Ryan career ERA / FIP = 3.72 / 3.75
While both have great results this year, there’s no great reason to expect them not to end the season in the 3.50+ ERA range.
Not sure what the Twins have after that at this point. Ober, Matthews, Festa, Paddack, and SWR are all looking like #5ish (or bullpen) guys.
Both the 2019 and 2023 rotations were way better than what the Twins are working with right now in my opinion.
Vazquez, Buxton, Correa, Lopez, Paddack, Bader, Castro are about $100MM together and $30MM is coming off the books next year. With Correa’s contract dropping off a bit, it won’t be as devastating. Mauer’s contract impacted the Twins quite a bit more than Correa’s, and Mauer wasn’t the reason the Twins couldn’t compete.
There’s just not much in MiLB for the Twins IMHO, there are a ton of contracts ticking down, and the star power on the team is either always hurt or having a down year.
They will do nothing like always. Terrible ownership.
It’s been a great year for Buxton – sell high before he gets hurt again. He’s 31, and he’s already had more ABs this year than in any year of his 11 year career besides 2017.
I don’t agree, and that’s before taking his full no trade clause into account. Buxton is actually on a pretty team friendly contract, which I believe pays him a base salary of “only “$15 million. There are escalators built in based on MVP voting, maxing out at $25 million (though my memory often remembers things that never were and otherwise.) Last season, I’d argue he was worth $15 million, even though he was again hurt for much of it, and so far this year, it’s looking good that his performance is going to far outpace the $25 million salary ceiling. Knock on wood, and all that, but his contract is certainly no detriment to the club, and the Twins do still need to sell tickets and attract eyeballs to their streaming broadcasts. Buxton’s pretty valuable as far as branding goes; very much a fan favorite and has a great public personality. I actually think he’s this generation’s Puckett or Mauer in that, as the Twins, I don’t see much upside to him playing for any other team through the end of his career. But obviously I’m not the Twins, I’m just a bum like any other fan.
I disagree on Buxton. He will not maintain this level of production for long. I’ve watched him for years as a diehard Twins fan and he is streaky to the extreme as is Correa. Neither player did anything in April and Correa was pretty much worthless on offense until the beginning of June and both players have done this for years. If I was Falvey I would be working my tail off to try and convince both to waive their no trade clauses and unload them.
In general, part of the security that players get from no-trade clauses is not just avoiding being traded altogether, but having leverage to influence when and where they move, if/when their teams really want to trade them. For Buxton it really seems like the motivation for his NTC above all was really not wanting to be traded if he signed an extension. His comments when he signed gave that sense pretty strongly. Add to that his owner-friendly salary as mentioned in the comment above, his status as a former well-hyped prospect who’s made relatively good on the hype between (admittedly a lot of) injuries, and presumably a lot of marketing and merch benefit to the team, and he seems as unlikely to move as any Twin at this point.
Even if he could be traded, there’s no ‘selling high’ on him. He’s been talented but injury prone for basically his whole career. 3 months of health aren’t going to erase the last decade. Everyone knows what he is.
“Everyone knows what he is.” Among the best players in the game, and a fun and marketable dude.
Who is regularly unavailable.
Except for this year?
Year’s not over.
It is not.
It is for the Twins.
Buxton has a full no-trade contract.
The team is probably not going to do much because ownership is trying to sell the team. Probably status quo until a sale goes through.
Article title: “Poll: What Will The Twins Do At The Deadline?”
Poll title: “Should The Twins Buy Or Sell This Summer?”
Two different questions.
Anyway, does anyone remember what the Twins did at the deadline last summer? They got Trevor Richards from the Blue Jays, followed by an historic collapse. (Not because of Richards, but because of the inept front office and cheap ownership.)
They’re not going to do anything this season either. Pohlads are too cheap and the front office probably “believes they have what they need to win.”
Also, “small additions” Coulombe and Hader have proven to be big additions considering how the Twins have done this year. Coulombe had a 0.00 ERA until recently (and a record-breaking no-runs-allowed streak) while Hader has been a blessing in the outfield defensively. Unfortunately it doesn’t hinder Rocco putting that clown Castro in the outfield. How people believe he’s an All Star is beyond me.
Re: Bader and Castro, maybe it’s because of Baldelli’s usage of Bader that sets him up best to succeed? I understand not liking a manager, but getting the most out of player signed as a bench piece isn’t a very compelling argument against the competence of that manager.
And while Castro may not be an All-Star in your book, or even mine, he’s been one of the more valuable players on this team when healthy. Castro’s definitely not a clown, whatever that means. I mean, maybe he’s funny? Maybe you know him personally and hold his sense of humor in high regard?
The “clown” comment is in reference to how silly Castro looks in the outfield and the errors he has anywhere he’s put on the diamond.
Why call Castro a clown? He’s an infielder. To my knowledge he does make out the lineup. I also do not get the All-Star talk. In order for it to happen, Buxton and Ryan would have to be unavailable.
Honestly, they should have what they need, but this team has massively underperformed. I can’t really even pick out an example outside of Correa’s poor start. Miranda disappearing? Ober’s mechanical problems and an apparent lack of coaching to correct them? This is a really weird Twins team, one that’s capable of achieving great success, but also one that’s just as capable of playing like a bottom five team. It’s among the most frustrating of a long history of frustrating Twins teams to evaluate as a fan.
Ober has admitted he has been pitching through hip issues. Since he’s admitted that, he’s gone even more downhill. I think the issue is that the Twins don’t have the strong depth that they used to have in previous years – and that’s really for any position – infield, outfield, catcher, bullpen, and starting rotation.
Seriously. The article did Ober a disservice by implying he’s been below avarage. He had a 3.4 ERA through May and has sucked the chrome off a trailer hitch during June. Like 16 runs, 7 HR allowed in 12 starts through June 1 and 30 runs, 14 HR in the six starts since.
He’s clearly hurt and needs to get better instead of working around his current problems until he seriously injures himself and it costs a year.
I thought I heard Ober recently say that he felt good physically and that his pitching problems stem from mechanical issues. Either way, he ain’t right.
I’d say give Audra Martin more time on Twins TV so she can ask the players what they would like. Stay or go elsewhere? Would find out quick who is committed and who is not.
Just enough to get to the playoffs where they’ll inevitably get swept by the Yankees. Again.
Dang. Buxton is 31.
It really makes no difference what they do. Until they get new owners this team will never win. They’re basically a farm team for the big money teams.
That argument is dated. The Twins haven’t been a farm team for the rest of the league since they got a new stadium. That’s a fact, not a statement. When they were in the Metrodome they were literally handing over almost 15% of ticket sales profits to the Vikings and getting no profits from concessions. It was strangling them financially in the late 90’s, not to mention the Metrodome was a horrible stadium for baseball given half the seats were so far from the diamond it was like looking down onto the field from a 30 story building watching ants run around the diamond
It’s hilarious people have this opinion when the rays have more wins than like 25/30 teams the last 15 years with by far the lowest payroll total in that time so.