The Twins ended the 2024 season with a bitterly disappointing slump in September that pushed them out of the playoff picture at the very end of the year. Budget constraints forced them to follow that up with a generally very quiet offseason, however, and they entered 2025 with mostly the same team as last year aside from a few small additions like Danny Coulombe and Harrison Bader. Given that lackluster offseason, perhaps it’s not a shock that the Twins are currently 40-44, four games out of the final AL Wild Card spot and 12.5 games back of the Tigers in the AL Central.
Minnesota would have to leapfrog five clubs in the standings just to secure a Wild Card berth. On the other hand, they have a 25.6% chance at making it to the postseason, according to Fangraphs, with a roster that looks quite intimidating on paper. Injuries to Pablo Lopez and Zebby Matthews are certainly frustrating, but even without those pieces, the Twins have a solid-looking roster. The offense is centered around a pair of stars in Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa who are complemented by the likes of Willi Castro, Bader, and Ryan Jeffers. The rotation features a legitimate front-of-the-rotation arm in Joe Ryan, and the bullpen is anchored by an excellent dynamic duo of Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax.
Unfortunately, the cracks in the roster quickly begin to show up when you look at the roster’s performance this year. While Buxton has been as much of a star as advertised, Correa has been a below-average hitter this year with a 93 wRC+ after a brutal start to the season. He’s hit more like himself in recent weeks, but continues to show a concerning lack of power. Matt Wallner was unable to sustain a hot start, Brooks Lee hasn’t been the hitter Minnesota was hoping for, and a handful of expected contributors are languishing in Triple-A due to poor performance. The rotation has nothing concrete behind Ryan, with even Bailey Ober posting an ERA north of 5.00 on the year. And despite possessing the second-best bullpen in baseball by FIP, the unit’s 4.32 ERA is well below average.
That leaves the Twins as one of the many teams stuck between buying and selling as July kicks off. It’s not too difficult to imagine a return to form from Correa and better results from a bullpen with excellent underlying numbers being enough to pull Minnesota back above .500, or at least stop them from falling out of the race completely until Lopez and Matthews eventually return. All of that reason is sound enough, and it’s surely played into comments from president of baseball operations Derek Falvey last week that indicated selling is not something the team is “focusing on” at this point.
For a team that could be just a starting pitcher or two away from a second-half surge, buying and hoping to get into the dance understandably holds some appeal. Correa and Buxton aren’t getting any younger, after all, and key pieces like Lopez, Duran, and Ryan are all slated to reach free agency following the 2027 season. With only three pennant races to go until the Twins will need to make some major changes, a sell-off this summer could leave the team with little reason for optimism headed into the final years of their stars’ prime seasons.
On the other hand, the Twins already suffered one painful collapse last year and have limited resources due to financial constraints placed by ownership. A sale of the team could be in the works, and it could be argued that, between the number of potential contenders jockeying for a seat at the table in the AL and the very limited supply of clear sellers this summer, the Twins would be better off selling some of their pieces and regrouping for the future, when they figure to have more certainty on an ownership level.
Young pieces like Lee, Wallner, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, all have years to go before free agency. The arrivals of players like Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins should help the lineup make up for the eventual declines of Correa and Buxton. It’s certainly possible to make an argument that the Twins are set up relatively well for the future, and a few savvy sell-side moves could keep their theoretical window of contention open for much longer. Adding another top prospect or two to the mix alongside Jenkins and Rodriguez could keep the team relevant for years to come.
Of course, another possibility would be to split the difference and do a bit of both. Perhaps rental players like Castro and Coulombe are dangled and replaced internally, while the team uses some of its controllable depth to acquire a starter or two. That sort of balanced approach could make plenty of sense, as could the approach teams like the Cubs and Pirates took to the deadline last year where they added controllable, longer-term assets like Isaac Paredes and Isiah Kiner-Falefa to simultaneously improve the current club while also building for the future.
How do MLBTR readers think the Twins should approach this deadline? Should they trust the team they’ve constructed to make up for last year’s collapse and add? Should they take advantage of a potential seller’s market and see what they can get for some of their best pieces? Or should they take the middle road and do a bit of both? Have your say in the poll below:
They should just sell. The team.
I have no idea what they’ll do but I do know this, whatever it is it’ll be wrong. Ahahahahaha!
As solid a bet as trotters v generals!
They play in the AL Central. You’re never out of the race unless you’re the White Sox.
Status quo performance through the ASG says the Twins should sell. The team looks to be at the end of its competitive window right now. There’s little ceiling at the top end of their MiLB talent pool, and many of their contributors have less than 3 years of team control left.
Ryan, Ober, Lopez, Jeffers, Larnach, Vazquez, Duran, Jax, Stewart, Bader are all free agents after 2 more years.
Correa looks like a major drag on team performance compared to his salary, but at least it starts dropping.
Buxton’s value is at an all time high.
I think it’s time to sell and start a rebuild. That said, I don’t think the Twins will do anything but hold pat because they’re committed to steady policy as the ownership attempts to sell.
They will do nothing like always. Terrible ownership.
It’s been a great year for Buxton – sell high before he gets hurt again. He’s 31, and he’s already had more ABs this year than in any year of his 11 year career besides 2017.
I don’t agree, and that’s before taking his full no trade clause into account. Buxton is actually on a pretty team friendly contract, which I believe pays him a base salary of “only “$15 million. There are escalators built in based on MVP voting, maxing out at $25 million (though my memory often remembers things that never were and otherwise.) Last season, I’d argue he was worth $15 million, even though he was again hurt for much of it, and so far this year, it’s looking good that his performance is going to far outpace the $25 million salary ceiling. Knock on wood, and all that, but his contract is certainly no detriment to the club, and the Twins do still need to sell tickets and attract eyeballs to their streaming broadcasts. Buxton’s pretty valuable as far as branding goes; very much a fan favorite and has a great public personality. I actually think he’s this generation’s Puckett or Mauer in that, as the Twins, I don’t see much upside to him playing for any other team through the end of his career. But obviously I’m not the Twins, I’m just a bum like any other fan.
In general, part of the security that players get from no-trade clauses is not just avoiding being traded altogether, but having leverage to influence when and where they move, if/when their teams really want to trade them. For Buxton it really seems like the motivation for his NTC above all was really not wanting to be traded if he signed an extension. His comments when he signed gave that sense pretty strongly. Add to that his owner-friendly salary as mentioned in the comment above, his status as a former well-hyped prospect who’s made relatively good on the hype between (admittedly a lot of) injuries, and presumably a lot of marketing and merch benefit to the team, and he seems as unlikely to move as any Twin at this point.
Even if he could be traded, there’s no ‘selling high’ on him. He’s been talented but injury prone for basically his whole career. 3 months of health aren’t going to erase the last decade. Everyone knows what he is.
“Everyone knows what he is.” Among the best players in the game, and a fun and marketable dude.
Who is regularly unavailable.
Except for this year?
Year’s not over.
It is not.
The team is probably not going to do much because ownership is trying to sell the team. Probably status quo until a sale goes through.
Article title: “Poll: What Will The Twins Do At The Deadline?”
Poll title: “Should The Twins Buy Or Sell This Summer?”
Two different questions.
Anyway, does anyone remember what the Twins did at the deadline last summer? They got Trevor Richards from the Blue Jays, followed by an historic collapse. (Not because of Richards, but because of the inept front office and cheap ownership.)
They’re not going to do anything this season either. Pohlads are too cheap and the front office probably “believes they have what they need to win.”
Also, “small additions” Coulombe and Hader have proven to be big additions considering how the Twins have done this year. Coulombe had a 0.00 ERA until recently (and a record-breaking no-runs-allowed streak) while Hader has been a blessing in the outfield defensively. Unfortunately it doesn’t hinder Rocco putting that clown Castro in the outfield. How people believe he’s an All Star is beyond me.
Re: Bader and Castro, maybe it’s because of Baldelli’s usage of Bader that sets him up best to succeed? I understand not liking a manager, but getting the most out of player signed as a bench piece isn’t a very compelling argument against the competence of that manager.
And while Castro may not be an All-Star in your book, or even mine, he’s been one of the more valuable players on this team when healthy. Castro’s definitely not a clown, whatever that means. I mean, maybe he’s funny? Maybe you know him personally and hold his sense of humor in high regard?
The “clown” comment is in reference to how silly Castro looks in the outfield and the errors he has anywhere he’s put on the diamond.
Why call Castro a clown? He’s an infielder. To my knowledge he does make out the lineup. I also do not get the All-Star talk. In order for it to happen, Buxton and Ryan would have to be unavailable.
Honestly, they should have what they need, but this team has massively underperformed. I can’t really even pick out an example outside of Correa’s poor start. Miranda disappearing? Ober’s mechanical problems and an apparent lack of coaching to correct them? This is a really weird Twins team, one that’s capable of achieving great success, but also one that’s just as capable of playing like a bottom five team. It’s among the most frustrating of a long history of frustrating Twins teams to evaluate as a fan.
Ober has admitted he has been pitching through hip issues. Since he’s admitted that, he’s gone even more downhill. I think the issue is that the Twins don’t have the strong depth that they used to have in previous years – and that’s really for any position – infield, outfield, catcher, bullpen, and starting rotation.
Seriously. The article did Ober a disservice by implying he’s been below avarage. He had a 3.4 ERA through May and has sucked the chrome off a trailer hitch during June. Like 16 runs, 7 HR allowed in 12 starts through June 1 and 30 runs, 14 HR in the six starts since.
He’s clearly hurt and needs to get better instead of working around his current problems until he seriously injures himself and it costs a year.
I thought I heard Ober recently say that he felt good physically and that his pitching problems stem from mechanical issues. Either way, he ain’t right.
I’d say give Audra Martin more time on Twins TV so she can ask the players what they would like. Stay or go elsewhere? Would find out quick who is committed and who is not.
Just enough to get to the playoffs where they’ll inevitably get swept by the Yankees. Again.
Dang. Buxton is 31.