With the 2016 MLB Draft approaching on June 9, here’s a quick roundup of links on how the first round might play out.
- The Phillies will take Florida lefty A.J. Puk with the top overall pick, MLB.com’s Jim Callis projects. Callis also suggests California high school outfielder Mickey Moniak or Mercer outfielder Kyle Lewis could also be possibilities, with the team likely saving significantly against their draft pool regardless of who they select. If the Phillies do pick Puk, Callis suggests, the Reds could go with Tennessee third baseman Nick Senzel. (Puk, by the way, left early in his start against LSU yesterday, but as Ross Dellenger of the Advocate writes, that was due to a stomach illness, not an injury.)
- ESPN’s Keith Law (Insider-only), meanwhile, predicts the Phillies will take Puk, with the Reds taking Lewis. Law also lists Louisville outfielder Corey Ray and California high school outfielder Blake Rutherford as possibilities with the top pick.
- Baseball America lists Puk as its top talent on its list of the draft’s top 500 prospects, noting his mid- to high-90s fastball, which plays up due to his 6’7 frame. Coming in second is Kansas high school pitcher Riley Pint, suggesting in the accompanying subscriber-only scouting report that he’s a “much better version” of Marlins prospect and former second overall pick Tyler Kolek. Pint throws 97-98 MPH, can hit 102, and has a changeup, curve and slider that could all potentially be good pitches.
Phillies: Puk
Reds: Pint
Braves: Lewis
Senzel is ahead of Lewis now (Lewis has lost his power the last month). Don’t forget Jason Groome either.
Teams naturally don’t take high school pitchers at the top of the draft due to risk. I would expect Groome to fall lower than 1:3. Phillies will end up with Puk, or the best college hitter available.
Reds should take the best talent, and the Braves I would expect to take the best position player, or Groome/Pint.
Geez, a high schooler that can hit 102?
Paging Dr. Andrews. Dr. Andrews, please pick up the white courtesy phone …
While I’m no doctor, I don’t believe that TJ has much to do with velocity, rather than mechanics. Jamie Moyer and Arroyo, among others, had the surgery without having much velocity.
Assuming a pitcher will blow out because he throws hard is naive.
There have been a few articles detailing how increased velocity (or more likely maximum effort) does seem to correlate to more tjs pitchers.
I believe the issue of tearing the ligaments has to do with how hard a pitcher throws, not how much velocity they achieve. While not that long ago pitchers didn’t throw every pitch—fastball, curve, changeup—with every ounce of their strength, they mostly seem to now. Even power pitchers left something behind and could “reach back” for more when needed. Today, it’s all about max effort at all times, putting enormous pressure on the arm, shoulder, ligaments and tendons. It doesn’t matter if your 100, 90 or 75…if you do it with all your strength it puts that pressure and can cause the injuries.
Correlation does not equal causation.
Can I turn around and say that fastball velocity in the past 10 years has resulted in a significant drop in shoulder injuries? B/c just like elbow injuries are up, shoulder injuries are down.
Pitchers are losing, roughly, the same amount of days now as they were years ago.
So the halos take that home schooled guy
How about we let the guy pitch without predicting/possibly hoping a guy ends up sigh Tommy John. Pitchers can’t throw hard without some dumbass saying he’ll have tommy john and hitters can’t drop bombs with some other idiot saying he’s on steroids. Grow up Peter Pan.
Unfortunately, it seems that the fantasy is believing that the bombs come without the PEDs, and that pitchers don’t undergo TJS. It would be nice if reality supported your claims, but during my lifetime, I have seen too many cheaters, and watched TJS become common place.