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Archives for December 2005

Phillies Sign Tom Gordon

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Ken Rosenthal deserves some sort of award for his offseason so far.  He’s scooped pretty much every major trade or signing.  Given that it’s entirely free and has better writers, I’m starting to gravitate towards Fox Sports more and more.

Anyway, the Phillies signed Tom Gordon for three years and $18-21MM.  It ain’t pretty, but they did what they had to do (a.k.a., Plan C).  I’m sure Beer Leaguer will weigh in and let us know how Phillies fans are feeling.

Me, I’m a bit taken aback by a team giving three years to a man who just turned 38.  Save the $20MM, pour it into a superstar.  A guy who plays 160 games and can impact your team by eight wins.  Not 80 innings of an aging closer.

Of course, Flash Gordon is a top-notch reliever.  The Phillies snagged the best one left on the market; why wouldn’t they?  Everyone expected this.  I can’t find anything worrisome in his stats besides his age.  Current Mets hitters have hit .096 off Gordon in 52 at-bats.  For the most part, he’ll be new to the National League hitters he’ll face regularly.  I just can’t get past the three-year commitment, especially knowing the Phillies’ history with overpaid relievers.

Konerko Received One Sox Offer

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I was listening to ESPN Sports Radio 1000 today for a few minutes, and they happened to be interviewing Paul Konerko.  Konerko seems to be a well-spoken, intelligent guy.  One interesting fact that he mentioned was that the White Sox’s five-year, $60MM offer was the only offer he received from Chicago.

It had previously been reported that his agent Craig Landis received a four-year, $52MM offer around November 10th.  Konerko called this offer "fiction."

Kris Benson For Jorge Julio Possible

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At least three sources are reporting that the Mets have officially dealt Kris Benson for Jorge Julio.  On the other hand, MetsBlog says the above sources jumped the gun.  In case the deal or something like it occurs, here’s a rundown of the pitchers. 

A recap of my synopsis of Benson from a week ago:

He was much worse away from Shea Stadium.
He hasn’t pitched 200 innings in a season since 2000.
His 2005 strikeout rate was a career low.

Nonetheless, Benson makes a passable #3 starter.  As a flyball pitcher moving from one of the toughest parks in which to homer to a neutral one, Benson figures to see his ERA hit 4.50 or higher in 2006.  The Mets are free of $15MM due to Benson for 2006-07. 

They will have to cover roughly $3MM coming to Jorge Julio.  The right-hander hasn’t been particularly good since 2002, the year he somehow managed to keep the ball in the park.  Since then, his home run rate has been poor and he’s allowed tons of baserunners.

Fallout from the deal:

Some speculate Julio makes Aaron Heilman expendable, but it doesn’t seem likely the Mets would think that way.

The Orioles might pull back in their pursuit of Paul Byrd, or perhaps he’s reached a deal elsewhere.  A Benson addition might indicate an Erik Bedard deal on the horizon, although co-VP Mike Flanagan has said he’s not shopping Bedard.

While it’s being called a salary dump, the Mets only clear $5MM in the deal for ’06.  It’s not as if that $5MM was holding Minaya back from a big deal he wanted to make.  The key to the deal is more that it opens up a rotation spot for a Javier Vazquez-type trade.  While the Mets are quickly being heralded as National League favorites, their starting rotation is not particularly fearsome at present.

Thanks to Steve and Brian

That Infamous Cardinals Memo

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Didn’t get enough about this scandalous memo sent out by Walt Jocketty?  If you recall, we first reported on a memo to Cardinals employees threatening termination if they disclosed any information two days ago. 

Here’s the rundown of the memo history, based on a few of my own sources. 

A memo containing confidential information went out to all 30 MLB teams.

One team employee sent the memo to a member of the media, who published it (that’s more or less a direct quote; if I find text of the initial MLB memo I’ll be sure to post it.  For now, this is all I know.)

MLB sent firm instruction to teams: don’t leak confidential information!

The Cardinals, plus an unknown West Coast team, sent a memo to employees reminding them not to disclose confidential information.

So, in conclusion, the Jocketty memo that we thought prefaced a huge trade or signing may have been no more than a run-of-the-mill nondisclosure reminder.

Update:  Received some additional info concerning the initial memo sent by MLB to all 30 teams.  Seems that a large portion of Peter Gammons’s November 18th column may have come from the MLB memo.  It’s an Insider column, but here’s the gist.

There’s a rundown of teams’ percentage of revenues that go into payroll, and it’s been steadily decreasing since 2002.  In other words, the teams are holding on to almost half their revenue.  Gammons says the info was given to clubs by the Commissioner’s Office and even admits the memo is confidential.  The column goes on to state that 2/3 of teams were profitable in ’05.

Where’s Javier Vazquez Headed?

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Ken Rosenthal had an informative article yesterday about starting pitchers likely to be traded.  It’s not loaded with new information, but it’s a handy summary.  One bit of new info (at least for me) was a list of likely suitors for Javier Vazquez.  Rosenthal named the Braves, Cubs, Mets, and Indians as likely to be interested.  In the same sentence, Rosenthal mentioned that Vazquez’s trade request was to join a team closer to his home in Puerto Rico.

Vazquez was born in Ponce, Puerto Rico.  I’m not sure if he still lives there, but it’s a reasonable assumption.  If Vazquez’s true main concern is to be as physically close to possible to Ponce, and Rosenthal’s list of suitors is accurate, it would be helpful to know the distance from Ponce to each team’s city.  That’s why I compiled this handy chart.

Distance from Ponce, Puerto Rico (miles)
Atlanta 1548
New York 1632
Cleveland 1851
Chicago 2064
Phoenix 3000

You can see why he was getting a little homesick playing in Arizona.  If geography is any indicator, Atlanta is the frontrunner.  Maybe they would ship Kyle Davies and change over to the D’Backs.

Ah, but what if Vazquez simply wants to be near large numbers of Puerto Ricans?  New York blows other U.S. cities out of the water, of course.

How about Puerto Ricans as a percent of the total city population?  Not a big surprise:

% of Total Population
New York, NY   9.0
Chicago, IL   1.8
Cleveland, OH   1.6
Atlanta, GA   0.5
Arizona   0.4

Though Atlanta is a little closer to Puerto Rico, the Vazquez should feel right at home with the Mets.  Indeed, such a trade is on the table.

Is Bobby Abreu Clutch?

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I noticed some people saying that Bobby Abreu isn’t clutch.  I figured it would make sense to put some numbers behind it to see if it’s just a perception that caught on or if it’s true.

Reader Bill already weighed in with Abreu’s September batting averages in a different post, so I’ll begin by expanding on that to include Abreu’s full AVG/OBP/SLG lines in recent Septembers.

First, his career line:  .303/.411/.512.  Can’t complain about that.

September 2005: .250/.395/.396
September 2004: .326/.483/.500
September 2003: .308/.432/.407
September 2002: .366/.455/.591

OK, it looks like his power numbers were way down this season and in ’03 in September.  But when you’re looking at a sample of 100 at-bats each year, and he has alternated between an excellent and subpar SLG, is it really statistically significant?  I don’t think so.  Plus, with OBPs like that, it’s not as if he tanked.

How about everyone’s favorite Close and Late stats?  Close and Late refers to when the game is in the 7th inning or later and is a one run affair or tied.

Close and Late ’05:  .298/.422/.571
Close and Late ’04:  .255/.445/.412
Close and Late ’03:  .318/.423/.420
Close and Late ’02:  .303/.444/.495

First off, no one can complain that Abreu wasn’t clutch in 2005 overall.  He had a two-year run where his power numbers were down in late game situations, but does that really make him "unclutch?"  Maybe Abreu focused on drawing a walk or hitting a single instead of going for the fences.  His OBPs were all above his career average. 

Finally, let’s see where Abreu stands with runners in scoring position.

RISP 2005:  .303/.444/.500
RISP 2004:  .322/.432/.624
RISP 2003:  .361/.473/.574 
RISP 2002:  .313/.441/.556

He’s consistently destroyed pitchers in every way with runners in scoring position. 

Some analysts don’t believe clutch hitting even exists, and the inconsistencies in this one sample seem to support that.  Regardless, there’s no clear conclusion that Bobby Abreu is "not clutch."         

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