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Archives for December 2005

Diamondbacks After Corey Patterson

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Several different sources have recently mentioned the Dimaondbacks’ interest in Corey Patterson.  The rumor first surfaced in my inbox Thursday morning, and I put in a word to Jack Magruder of the East Valley Tribune.  Magruder confirmed the rumor, saying that it might happen depending on who the Cubs would take.

After further inquiries, Magruder revealed that the D’backs were reluctant to part with relievers after the Johnny Estrada trade thinned their ’pen.  He also mentioned that Arizona will not part with Carlos Quentin, Conor Jackson, Stephen Drew, or other top prospects, which makes sense.

Some have floated the idea of the Cubs attempting to acquire Des Plaines native Shawn Green for their right field vacancy.  Green, the game’s 7th best right fielder in 2005, won’t be coming to the Cubs.  Green’s contract calls for a limited no-trade clause for 2006 and 2007 that allows trades only to the Angels, Dodgers, and Padres.  Apparently his wife prefers to stay in California.

Today, Bleed Cubbie Blue pointed us in the direction of an article on this same topic.  John Gambadoro, in an article special to AZCentral.com, adds some new information about the D’Backs interest in Patterson.  According to Gambadoro:

"Last season after the trade deadline had passed, Arizona put a claim in on Patterson after the Cubs had tried to slip him through waivers. The Cubs pulled the offer back."

I’ve dropped a line to "Gambo" in attempt to get a few names that Arizona would be willing to offer.  This is pure speculation, but maybe the D’Backs would part with a struggling outfielder of their own, Josh Kroeger.  A former wide receiver, Kroeger took a step backward by posting a .261/.316/.422 line in Triple A this year.  He’s only 22, and had been successful up to this point.  I figure it wouldn’t be bad to add a slugging outfield prospect to the stable if he’s available.   

Alfonso Soriano’s Washington Projection

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Some have suggested that RFK Stadium will kill Alfonso Soriano’s fantasy value.  Find out if that’s true by reading my Alfonso Soriano Washington Nationals 2006 Projection over at RotoAuthority.

Another website to check out today is Cub Town.  Derek Smart writes intelligent posts about the Cubs with a healthy dose of stats mixed in.  Highly recommended.

Yanks Not Impressed With CF Market

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Back on October 25th, I mentioned in my Top 50 Free Agents list that "if Damon and Lofton aren’t available, Preston Wilson may frighteningly be the best option in CF" for the Yankees.  At this point, it’s starting to look like the Yankees won’t try to acquire even a Wilson type for their vacancy.

According to a source of mine just returning from the winter meetings, the Yankees don’t like the CF market and didn’t have the ammo to acquire Juan Pierre or even Joey Gathright.  The club plans on shoving Bubba Crosby out there to start the season and making a deal mid-season.  I origninally thought all of this Bubba stuff was just posturing, but it seems the Yankees will really give him a shot for a few months.

Once we reach July, the Cardinals and Twins will have a better gauge on whether they want to deal Jim Edmonds and Torii Hunter.  Edmonds has an affordable $10MM club option for 2007, so the Yanks would really have to put together an impressive package to pry him away.  But the Cardinals are looking more like an 85-90 win team these days, and with a little bad luck they could be dealing off a few veterans by summertime.  The Twins can exercise a $12MM option on Hunter for 2007, and that’s probably not going to happen.  Look for the Hunter talks to heat up a few months into the ’06 season. 

Cards Make A Play For Matt Morris

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Sadly for frustrated Cardinals fans, it’s come to this: Plan C.  A distant Plan C, at that.  After falling short on #2 starter types A.J. Burnett and Javier Vazquez, Walt Jocketty confirmed his interest in good ol’ Matt Morris.

Jayson Stark quoting an anonymous GM yesterday about the Cardinals:

"That’s a team whose window to win may be closing.  They’ll still be good. But they’re getting thinner, and they’re getting older, and they’re getting more vulnerable."

This is undeniable.  The Cards aren’t packed with young talent in the pipeline, and a couple of stars like Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen might be creeping towards their decline phase. 

That’s why signing Matt Morris is a bad move.  It doesn’t seem like the type of move the Cardinals would make.  They were planning on letting him go because they knew he wasn’t worth $24MM over three years and they refused to pay it.  Now they might hand him that money anyway because there’s nothing better and cheaper out there.

Continuing to pitch in front of a solid St. Louis defense will be good for Morris’s career as he becomes a finesse pitcher.  A few weeks ago, I gave an ’06 projection for Morris as a San Francisco Giant.  I said a 4.41 ERA with that defense; he might manage 4.25 with some luck as a Cardinal in ’06.  U.S.S. Mariner said it best on October in their Free Agent Landmines post:

"Since the all-star break, Matt Morris has been, well, awful. His numbers across the board have taken a nosedive. His strikeout rate has fallen and he’s getting lit up like a Christmas tree. He has a history of arm problems, and at this point, wouldn’t be a good bet even on a one year contract. Given his reputation and his overall totals, someone is certainly going to overpay."

Looks like that someone could be the Cardinals. 

Willy Taveras, Jarrod Washburn Mentioned For Cubs

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Chicago Sun-Times writer Chris De Luca has a few names he thinks would work for the Cubs.  Said De Luca today:

"It’s too bad Wood’s future is so murky. The Houston Astros, in need of pitching and always in the market for homegrown stars such as Wood, are listening to offers for center fielder Willy Taveras, the runner-up in National League Rookie of the Year voting. With the Astros showing more trust in Chris Burke during the postseason, Taveras has become a hot name on the trade market."

While one Juan Pierre in the lineup has a chance of working, two of them certainly would not.  You can’t get four home runs between two outfield spots.

De Luca also mentions that Jarrod Washburn and his 3.20 ERA "should have been an option, but Hendry has shown little interest in the left-hander."  De Luca first mentioned the Cubs as a possible suitor back on November 18th.

I can’t agree here either.  If you compare Washburn’s indicators (baserunners and HR allowed, strikeout rate) you’ll notice that Washburn posted a 4.64 ERA in 2004 with indicators very similar to this year.  In other words, a huge chunk of that 3.20 that’s going to earn Washburn an extra $10MM can be attributed to luck.

Don’t Expect Luis Gonzalez Return For Cubs

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Thinking a Luis Gonzalez homecoming to the Cubs might be an adequate solution?  The Cubs don’t.  I recently spoke to Daily Herald writer Bruce Miles, who told me that the Cubs have "no interest."

Apparently, the Cubs are turned off by Gonzalez’s weak arm being a part of their outfield defense.  While a notch above Jeromy Burnitz, the 38 year-old Gonzalez is slipping offensively.  His .459 SLG in 2005 was his worst since 1997.  Gonzalez is known to be on the trading block along with Javier Vazquez and Shawn Green.

Gonzalez is most notable for his face, which makes it look like he’s always smiling.  A close second would be his ridiculous, almost Ruthian 2001.  That year, Gonzo hit .325 with 57 HR and 142 RBI.  He posted an OPS of 1117 (69th all time).  If you’re curious, the all-time record for on-base plus slugging percentage was Barry Bonds’s 2004 (1421).  Bonds got on base more than 3 out of 5 times that year, easily a record.

Walker For Bradley: Update

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I’ve lost track of how many of these Todd Walker for Milton Bradley posts I’ve written.  According to an emailer, Bruce Levine of ESPN Radio 1000 is reporting that the Cubs are awaiting word from the Dodgers on this trade – the offer of Walker is on the table.  No timetable was given for a decision.

Levine’s been all over this one since November; he mentioned yesterday that it could happen before the weekend.

Thanks to Alex

Miguel Tejada Wants Out

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I had received a few tips from readers about Miguel Tejada possibly being traded.  I didn’t print anything because I couldn’t substantiate them.  Turns out those readers were on target; today Tejada said, "I think the best thing will be a change of scenery."  You can bet Tejada’s proclamation will get the hot stove buzzing once again.

It’s a strange thing for Tejada to say, given that the Orioles have several months left to improve their team.  He said that the Orioles "have not made any signings to strengthen the club."  If I were Ramon Hernandez, I’d be slightly offended by that remark.  And to think the two were teammates for so many years. 

Anyway, let’s begin with Tejada’s contract.  He’ll make $10MM in ’06, $12MM in ’07, $13MM in ’08, and $13MM in ’09.  That’s $48MM over four years.  He’d certainly snag more than that on the open market.  Tejada isn’t even 30 yet, and you know all about his offensive accolades and durability.  One mild sign of a possible decline is that Tejada slugged only .416 after the All-Star break in ’05, hitting seven home runs.  Still, that’s only 300 ABs and he may have felt uninspired. 

Here’s what we’re all wondering: where might Tejada end up?

Boston Red Sox.  Of course, they have a huge need for a shortstop and plenty of cash.  There’s even an article circulating saying that Tejada might want to play for the Red Sox.  The Sox could offer up Jon Lester and Dustin Pedroia for starters.  The one little problem is that the Orioles still consider themselves competitive, and would probably be reluctant to trade within the division.  Back when the Red Sox dealt Curt Schilling and Brady Anderson to the Orioles for Mike Boddicker, the O’s were completely out of the race.

Chicago Cubs.  I’m thinking that if Jim Hendry removes Felix Pie from the "untouchables" list, the Orioles would seriously consider shipping Tejada their way.  If the Cubs included Ronny Cedeno to take Tejada’s vacant spot, a deal could get done quickly. (This is all speculation, of course).

New York Mets.  The Mets seem willing to give Jose Reyes all the time he needs to develop into a leadoff threat at shortstop.  But Omar’s been mortgaging the future this winter like it’s going out of style, so you think he’d at least inquire.  The Orioles’ response would probably include the words "Lastings" and "Milledge." 

Toronto Blue Jays.  If the Orioles do decide to deal within the AL East, the Blue Jays could get involved.  Russ Adams is OK, but Ricciardi might have interest anyway.

Houston Astros.  If ownership doesn’t mind the commitment, the ’Stros might try to allocate some of that now-available Clemens cash for a marquee shortstop.  Not sure if they’ve got the prospects to cut it, though.

What do you think?  Any teams I’ve left out?  What players would it take to get a deal done?

Thanks to Tom and Dennis

Red Sox Send Renteria and $11MM for Andy Marte

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Today, the Red Sox sent shortstop Edgar Renteria and $11MM for third baseman Andy Marte.  That’s got to be a record for Martes traded in one day.  I don’t think it was a bad move by the Braves, considering that they’ll have a decent shortstop for three years at less than half the price of Rafael Furcal.

On the other hand, Marte has the potential be a star.  I know, "potential" is a loaded word.  But when a player hits .275/.372/.506 in Triple A at age 21, it screams "future star."  Marte was ranked the best prospect in baseball by Baseball Prospectus heading into 2005. 

Conditionally, this could be a historic trade by the Red Sox.  I say conditionally because if the Red Sox flip him to Tampa Bay for a mere Julio Lugo, it would be a colossal mistake.  I don’t know who should play short for the Red Sox, but it shouldn’t be at the expense of Marte.  Sign Alex Gonzalez or Nomar, whatever.

Fenway would be very beneficial to Andy Marte, as it inflates home runs for righthanders by 13%.  Could be an extra 40-50 bombs over the course of a long and illustrious career.  It would be a shame if Mike Lowell got in the way for more than a month or two just because he makes a lot of money.   

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