Lowe For Sale?
In an informative post-mortem on the Braves, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports that Atlanta General Manager Frank Wren "is expected to explore the possibility of trading [Derek] Lowe, who is owed $45MM over the final three years of his contract."
The idea makes a ton of sense for Atlanta. With multiple needs, and a surplus of starters, the Braves should certainly jettison one in an effort to add a first baseman, outfielder and/or help in the bullpen.
The question is less about why Atlanta would deal Lowe, and more why anyone would want to deal for him at his price.
Lowe is coming off of a season with a 4.67 ERA along with a strikeout rate of just 5.1 per nine innings. He certainly didn't finish strong, with a 5.05 second-half ERA, and a 6,23 mark from September 1 on. And that $15MM per season will pay for Lowe's age-37, age-38 and age-39 campaigns.
Even if Lowe had pitched extremely well in 2009, it is hard to imagine that many teams could afford him. And of those teams, both the Yankees and Red Sox would hardly want to ask a pitcher with a declining strikeout rate to switch leagues.
It will be fascinating to see if the Braves can find a trading partner for Lowe. They can always make the argument, "He's just a year removed from a 3.24 ERA!" But those arguments never seem to result in renaissance seasons. A lot can change with a year removed. After all, Jon and Kate are just a year removed from being "happily married television stars."
Discussion: What’s Next For Baltimore?
The Baltimore Sun's Dan Connolly details the questions facing a Baltimore team with some young offensive talent, some terrific young pitching on the way, and a lot of extra cash.
Connolly writes that while the 64-98 record Baltimore had in 2009 was the third-worst in team history, "there is a sense that the future has promise because of the emergence of young starting pitchers Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Brad Bergesen, catcher Matt Wieters and outfielders Nolan Reimold and Felix Pie."
Left unsaid, of course, is the emergence of Adam Jones and Nick Markakis continuing to be a tremendous player.
The good news? The Orioles, according to Connolly, went from roughly $77MM owed in payroll at the start of the 2009 season-including $9MM to Jay Gibbons and Ramon Hernandez– to a $30MM commitment for 2010, not including raises through arbitration.
The bad news is that there aren't many marquee free agents (though there is Jason Marquis), and those that do qualify- Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, John Lackey– aren't great fits, particularly Bay and Holliday in an overcrowded outfield.
Connolly captures the problem of desires vs. realistic options perfectly here:
"The preference is to find a right-handed or switch-hitting first baseman in his prime, like the New York Yankees' Mark Teixeira. But there's no one who fits that profile in this year's class. The best free-agent options might be left-handed-hitting first basemen Russell Branyan and Hank Blalock or right-handed do-it-all Mark DeRosa."
So what's an Oriole to do?
Mike Rizzo Chat At The Washington Post
Chico Harlan of the Washington Post chatted with Nationals GM Mike Rizzo, and posted the full Q&A on his blog. A few hot stove highlights:
- Starter Scott Olsen had surgery in July to repair a small labrum tear in his pitching shoulder. Having earned $2.8MM this year, the Nats would have to pay him at least $2.24MM in 2010 if they tender him a contract. Rizzo said he's getting health reports on Olsen daily and the team will use the coming months to decide whether to non-tender him.
- Rizzo says closer Mike MacDougal has "done a great job." MacDougal represents another of the Nationals' many arbitration cases; he could earn $3MM+ in 2010.
- The Nationals consider Jesus Flores (shoulder surgery) the everyday catcher in 2010, but still may bring in another backstop for insurance.
- Rizzo seems satisfied with Elijah Dukes as the regular right fielder.
Giants Rumors: Lincecum, Sanchez, Penny
Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News has the goods on the Giants, after speaking with GM Brian Sabean and manager Bruce Bochy.
- Technically, Sabean and Bochy's contracts are up at the end of the month. They don't have commitments for 2010 in hand, yet the expectation is that both will be back.
- In discussing Tim Lincecum's upcoming arbitration case, Sabean referenced Ryan Howard's record first-time award ($10MM) from February of '08. Of course, with Howard, the Phillies screwed up by submitting only $7MM. Sabean wants to file his salary request for Lincecum before discussing a long-term deal, so as to not show his hand early.
- Closer Brian Wilson is another first-time arbitration-eligible player, and you have to think he'll jump up to $5MM+.
- The Giants would like to restructure Freddy Sanchez's $8.1MM option into a two-year deal, but seem confident in his return. Baggarly says they even consider the option as a fallback if the restructuring fails. I can't see Sanchez getting $8.1MM on the open market.
- A Brad Penny return appears unlikely. If he sticks to the NL and the West Coast he'll be down to the Padres pretty much. It'd also be surprising to see the Giants re-sign catcher Bengie Molina, who wants a two-year deal worth more than $6MM annually.
- Sabean wouldn't rule out trading a pitcher for a bat, but said he'd agonize over such a decision.
- Brandon Medders, Justin Miller, and Ryan Garko are non-tender candidates. The Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner call-ups locked up two 40-man roster spots.
- Quoting Baggarly: Sabean justified the $18.5 million contract he gave [Edgar Renteria] last winter by saying they needed a veteran shortstop."
Griffey Earned $3.15MM In 2009
The AP has a few notes on free agent DH Ken Griffey Jr. The report says Junior earned $3.15MM in total this year – a $2MM base plus $1.15MM in incentives for playing time and team attendance. The Mariners kindly played Griffey often in the season's final week, causing him to earn an additional $250K. As for 2010, Griffey will talk to his family and decide within a few weeks.
Griffey, 40 in November, hit .214/.324/.411 in 454 plate appearances this year. A bench role might make sense if he does return next year.
Heyman On Padres, Rockies, Abreu
The latest from SI's Jon Heyman…
- Heyman talked to Padres CEO Jeff Moorad, who is looking for a disciplined and strategic general manager rather than an intuitive exec like Kevin Towers. Heyman says the new GM will be hired within weeks. Boston's Jed Hoyer is in the mix, and Oakland's David Forst fits the profile.
- The Rockies will offer new contracts to GM Dan O'Dowd and manager Jim Tracy.
- The Angels made an offer to Bobby Abreu, who is finishing up a one-year deal that will pay him at least $6MM. Heyman says "no progress has been reported thus far." Abreu said in September that he wants to return.
Discussion: Adrian Beltre
MLB.com's Jim Street talked to Mariners third baseman Adrian Beltre about the player's upcoming free agent experience:
"It will be different this year, no doubt. I didn't put up the numbers everyone expected and then I had shoulder surgery. I am 100-percent healthy right now, but there may be some questions about that. That is something I am going to find out. I don't know what to expect. Last year, it was a tough free agency for some players because of the economic climate. I don't know what to expect, but for me, it's not about the money anymore. I have already made a lot of money in the sport. I would like to play in the World Series and win one."
Beltre, 31 in April, hit just .265/.304/.379 in 477 plate appearances this year amid injuries. He still plays stellar defense at the hot corner. To his benefit, Beltre projects as a Type B free agent. Should he turn down an arbitration offer from the Mariners, he won't cost his new team a draft pick. Another Scott Boras client, Joe Crede, signed for a one-year $2.5MM guarantee in February. Will Beltre command more? And where might he land? Aside from the Ms, the Orioles, Marlins, Astros, Angels, Twins, A's, Pirates, and Cardinals face uncertainty at third base in 2010.
Discussion: Adrian Beltre
MLB.com's Jim Street talked to Mariners third baseman Adrian Beltre about the player's upcoming free agent experience:
"It will be different this year, no doubt. I didn't put up the numbers everyone expected and then I had shoulder surgery. I am 100-percent healthy right now, but there may be some questions about that. That is something I am going to find out. I don't know what to expect. Last year, it was a tough free agency for some players because of the economic climate. I don't know what to expect, but for me, it's not about the money anymore. I have already made a lot of money in the sport. I would like to play in the World Series and win one."
Beltre, 31 in April, hit just .265/.304/.379 in 477 plate appearances this year amid injuries. He still plays stellar defense at the hot corner. To his benefit, Beltre projects as a Type B free agent. Should he turn down an arbitration offer from the Mariners, he won't cost his new team a draft pick. Another Scott Boras client, Joe Crede, signed for a one-year $2.5MM guarantee in February. Will Beltre command more? And where might he land? Aside from the Ms, the Orioles, Marlins, Astros, Angels, Twins, A's, Pirates, and Cardinals face uncertainty at third base in 2010.
Odds & Ends: Kikuchi, Dye, Varitek
Links for Monday…
- Yakyu Baka translated a recent Yusei Kikuchi press conference. Kikuchi has yet to decide between the U.S. and Japan. The Mets and Tigers attended the conference.
- Baseball America's Jim Callis has the 2010 draft order, and he also explains which picks are protected from Type A free agent signings.
- Jermaine Dye talking to Scot Gregor of the Daily Herald on possibly finishing his White Sox career: "I don't really have a feeling."
- Talking to WEEI's Alex Speier, Jason Varitek would not address next season (he has a $5MM team option and $3MM player option). Manager Terry Francona made sure Varitek received an ovation yesterday.
- MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan gives one-liners on 35 Rangers players.
- Tyler Bleszinski of Athletics Nation talked to A's GM Billy Beane. Beane chatted about Matt Holliday, stolen bases, and the first base depth chart, among other things.
- Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star tells us about new Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos.
- Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times explains how advanced defensive metrics influenced the team's acquisition of Franklin Gutierrez.
- Outfielder So Taguchi hopes to play in 2010, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.
Pirates Talk: Payroll, Offseason Plans
Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has the latest on the Pirates, in articles found here and here.
- Kovacevic says the Pirates "do not plan to pursue a starting pitcher through free agency or trade this offseason." The Bucs figure to enter Spring Training next year with four rotation spots decided and many options for the last spot.
- As hot stove junkies, we love when GMs are revealing about offseason plans and payroll space. However, it's often not in the best interest of the team for the GM to disclose that information. With that in mind, Huntington is staying mum on free agent targets and the team's 2010 payroll.
- Pirates president Frank Coonelly admitted next year's payroll will exceed the current $28MM projection, but wouldn't provide more detail. Coonelly added, "This is a relatively weak free-agent class. Nevertheless, there are several players who would be of interest to us if they become free agents." A few weeks ago, Kovacevic suggested Rick Ankiel and John Grabow are possible free agent targets for the Pirates.
- The Pirates fell below their draft and international budgets this year, and Coonelly says that money will roll over to the corresponding budgets in 2010.
- Huntington and manager John Russell are signed through next year. Coonelly expects both to remain with the team beyond 2010.
- In a Pirates 2010 outlook for MLB.com, Jenifer Langosch names Denny Bautista and Tyler Yates as non-tender candidates.