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Archives for October 2009

Odds & Ends: DeRosa, Mateo, Mets, Cubs

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A few links to click through before the Phillies and Yankees do battle in Game 1 of the World Series…

Rockies To Lock Up Tracy, O’Dowd

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According to Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post, the Rockies are close to agreement on a three-year contract with manager Jim Tracy.

The Rox are expected to hold off on announcing the deal until the World Series has ended.  Tracy led the club to a 74-42 record and the NL Wild Card after taking over for Clint Hurdle in late May.  He has a 636-616 lifetime managerial record in stints with the Dodgers, Pirates, and now Colorado.  GM Dan O'Dowd is expected to receive a similar three-year deal.

Trades Of The Decade: Kazmir For Zambrano

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The Mets weren't particularly close to a playoff spot on the morning of July 30th, 2004. They were in fourth place in the NL East, six games out of first and ninth in the Wild Card race. That didn't stop Mets GM Jim Duquette from trading for Victor Zambrano and Kris Benson in a pair of trades that evening. For Zambrano and Bartolome Fortunato, the Mets gave up Jose Diaz and Scott Kazmir.

Kazmir hadn't pitched in the majors yet, but the 20-year-old Texan already had a profile. The Mets selected him in the first round of the 2002 draft and Kazmir dominated minor league hitters, striking out 259 in 203.1 innings.

Devil Rays GM Chuck LaMar called Kazmir one of baseball's best left-handed pitching prospects and told ESPN he couldn't pass up the chance to acquire him.

"We needed to start getting our hands on some pitching that can truly beat the Red Sox and Yankees in this division," LaMar said."We think Scott Kazmir has that kind of ability."

LaMar turned out to be right. Kazmir contributed to the Rays' 2008 division title and run to the World Series past the Yankees and Red Sox. Overall, he had a 3.92 ERA in parts of six seasons with the Rays. He struck out more than a batter per inning (9.4K/9) and allowed less than a hit per inning (8.4H/9) in 834 frames, though he was susceptible to walks (4.1BB/9).

No matter how you measure it, Kazmir has been worth the $10MM or so the Rays paid him. (In case you're wondering, FanGraphs says his performance in Tampa would have cost about $70MM to replace on the free agent market.) The Rays flipped Kazmir to the Angels this summer, but they obtained Alexander Torres, Matthew Sweeney and Sean Rodriguez, so the 2004 trade still shapes today's Rays.

They made the deal with the future in mind, but Duquette thought the Mets could win in 2004. He acknowledged to the New York Times that the deal was "more of a current trade rather than a long-term trade." Five years later, that's quite the understatement.

Zambrano, who was pitching through elbow soreness at the time of the deal, appeared just three times for the Mets in 2004 due to the injury.  Two years later Zambrano was recovering from Tommy John and flexor tendon surgery, and the Mets non-tendered the righty.  He posted a 4.42 ERA in just over 200 innings with the club; he continued to be plagued by control problems when healthy.

The Mets finished 20 games below .500 with a walk-prone injured 29-year-old who was about to become expensive. The Rays finished 21 games below .500 with one of baseball's top pitching prospects under team control for six years. As any Mets fan will tell you, It's hard to find a more lopsided trade.

Trade Market: First Basemen

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Next up in our Trade Market series, first basemen.  We analyzed first base free agents here.

  • Prince Fielder, Brewers.  On October 7th, Brewers GM replied, "I don't see that happening" when asked about trading Fielder or Ryan Braun (Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reporting).  What's more, SI's Jon Heyman expects the Brewers to attempt to lock Fielder up this winter.  Fielder is already under team control through 2011, and there is no reason to expect him to be shopped (the Brewers have other trade chips with which they can acquire pitching).
  • Adrian Gonzalez, Padres.  Like Fielder, most Gonzalez trade rumors have been speculative.  And Jed Hoyer knowing Theo Epstein doesn't really increase the chances of a trade to Boston.  The Padres have a small payroll, but Gonzalez will only earn $10.25MM over the next two seasons.  Hoyer even said long-term discussions are "on the docket."  On the other hand, there were summer trade talks with the Mariners, Red Sox, and Dodgers under old GM Kevin Towers.  Towers believes "it's just a matter of when" the Padres trade Gonzalez.
  • Adam Dunn, Nationals.  We haven't heard anything about Dunn being available, but it'd be reasonable for GM Mike Rizzo to listen.  The Nats have Dunn signed for next year at $12MM. 
  • Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays. Currently, the Blue Jays have no plans to move Adam Lind to first base (says MLB.com's Jordan Bastian).  If they change their mind, Overbay and his $7MM salary could theoretically be shopped.
  • Jorge Cantu, Marlins.  Here's a guy who's actually likely to be available this winter.  The thinking is that the Marlins would prefer not to give Cantu an arbitration raise on his $3.5MM salary.  Cantu traded some power for OBP this year.
  • James Loney, Dodgers.  More speculation…the Dodgers could consider trading Loney and his .399 SLG if they'd prefer more power at first base.  Loney's salary is set to take a jump through arbitration this year.
  • Ryan Garko, Giants. Garko is a non-tender candidate for the Giants, so it figures they'll try to trade him first.  At the least, Garko handles lefties well.
  • Casey Kotchman, Red Sox.  Kotchman was an odd acquisition by the Red Sox, as they don't have much of a spot for him.  He's similar to Loney but the asking price might be lower.
  • Andy Marte, Indians.  Marte's future with the Tribe is in doubt after a .232/.293/.400 performance in the bigs.  He did slug .593 at Triple A this year.
  • Mike Jacobs, Royals.  Like Garko, a non-tender candidate.  Jacobs spent most of the season as a DH.

Royals Face Options On Crisp, Olivo

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MLB.com's Dick Kaegel takes a look at the Royals' two contract option decisions, which are due ten days after the World Series.

Kaegel believes the Royals will consider Coco Crisp's $500K buyout an easy choice over his $8MM option.  However, Kaegel wonders if the Royals will then offer Crisp a new incentive-laden deal.  Crisp said in August, "I don't know.  It'd be nice to stay for a while.  I like it here."  The 29-year-old center fielder had rotator cuff surgery on both shoulders this summer.  The weak free agent market for center fielders should work in his favor.

Catcher Miguel Olivo has a $3.3MM mutual option; both Kaegel and Royals GM Dayton Moore believe he'll test the free agent market.  Catchers are also in short supply this year.  While Olivo slugged 23 home runs this year, his OBP was just .292.

Don't forget the Royals' two primary non-tender candidates: first baseman Mike Jacobs and catcher John Buck.  Kaegel says the Royals intend to "re-cast" their catching situation, so Buck is probably destined for free agency.  It doesn't make sense to tender a contract to Jacobs, who earned $3.25MM this year and hit just .228/.297/.401 in 478 plate appearances.  Between Jacobs, Buck, and Olivo, the Royals had 1,096 plate appearances of sub-.300 OBP.

Heyman On Manny, Felix, Bay, Washburn

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The latest hot stove notes from SI's Jon Heyman…

  • Manny Ramirez "is planning to exercise" his $20MM player option for 2010.  This was expected but it'd still be interesting to see Manny jump back into free agency, maybe seek two years and $30MM.
  • Heyman echoes what we've read regarding Brandon Webb – the D'Backs will pick up his $8.5MM option for next year, as Webb is not interested in renegotiating.  On a related note, MLB.com's Steve Gilbert looks at some options for the two open spots in Arizona's rotation.
  • The Red Sox "would still love to make a run at Felix Hernandez."  Who wouldn't?  I don't expect Felix trade talks to become reality unless the Mariners try and fail to sign him to an extension first.  Heyman considers Roy Halladay more realistic for the Sox; Doc's price would presumably be slightly lower with the '09 season concluded.  According to Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail, Halladay, his wife, and his agent had dinner with Jays president and CEO Paul Beeston last week to discuss the future.
  • The Red Sox "were thought to have offered" $15MM to left fielder Jason Bay.  How many years?
  • Heyman says the Mariners and Brewers "are expected to be in the mix" for free agent lefty Jarrod Washburn.  Scott Boras surely knows a move to the NL would help Washburn, who was born in LaCrosse, Wisconsin.

Bad Contract Swap Meet

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Got a bad contract on your hands?  Maybe you can swap it for another team's problem.  I'll list the bad contracts, you connect the dots.

  • Vernon Wells, Blue Jays - five years, $98.5MM
  • Alfonso Soriano, Cubs – five years, $90MM
  • Barry Zito, Giants – four years, $83MM
  • Alex Rios, White Sox – five years, $59.7MM
  • Travis Hafner, Indians – three years, $40.25MM
  • Aaron Rowand, Giants – three years, $36MM
  • Carlos Guillen, Tigers – two years, $26MM
  • Carlos Silva, Mariners – two years, $25MM
  • Francisco Cordero, Reds – two years, $25MM
  • Oliver Perez, Mets – two years, $24MM
  • Gary Matthews Jr., Angels - two years, $23MM
  • Milton Bradley, Cubs – two years, $21MM
  • Juan Pierre, Dodgers – two years, $18.5MM
  • Jeff Suppan, Brewers – one year, $14.5MM
  • David Ortiz, Red Sox – one year, $12.5MM
  • Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers – one year, $12.5MM
  • Jose Guillen, Royals – one year, $12MM
  • Eric Chavez, Athletics – one year, $12MM
  • Dontrelle Willis, Tigers – one year, $12MM
  • Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks – one year, $11MM
  • Fausto Carmona, Indians – two years, $11MM
  • Scott Linebrink, White Sox – two years, $10.5MM
  • Nate Robertson, Tigers – one year, $10MM
  • Edgar Renteria, Giants – one year, $9.5MM
  • Pat Burrell, Rays – one year, $9MM
  • Kei Igawa, Yankees – two years $8MM
  • Jeff Francis, Rockies - one year, $5.75MM
  • Kyle Farnsworth, Royals – one year, $5MM
  • Willy Taveras, Reds – one year, $4MM
  • Aaron Miles, Cubs – one year, $2.7MM
  • Honorable mentions: Michael Young (4/64, some deferred), Carlos Lee (3/55.5), Derek Lowe (3/45), Todd Helton (2/40.3), Kyle Lohse (3/32.625), Magglio Ordonez (1/18, possible vesting option), Mike Lowell (1/12), Chris Snyder (2/11.25), Cristian Guzman (1/8), Jamie Moyer (1/7.5), Kaz Matsui (1/5)

Aroldis Chapman Review

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With all the information swirling around about free agent lefty Aroldis Chapman, I thought a summary would be helpful.  Chapman has been declared a free agent and can sign at any time, though a deal is unlikely before the conclusion of the World Series.  One GM told Yahoo's Tim Brown in July, "I'm sure all 30 teams will be interested to some degree."  Nonetheless, let's look at specific suitors.

  • Red Sox:  They've been a top suitor from the start.  Kiley McDaniel of Baseball Prospectus says Chapman was scheduled to throw a bullpen at Fenway today but it was cancelled due to inclement weather.  ESPN's Peter Gammons believes Boston's signing of former Chapman teammate Jose Iglesias may impact the pitcher's decision.
  • Yankees: They've also been a top suitor from the start.  ESPN's Jorge Arangure Jr. said Chapman met with GM Brian Cashman and other Yanks officials at the October 25th playoff game and "had good conversations."  Several reporters see Chapman as another Yankees-Red Sox battle. 
  • Mariners: Add them to the list – our source says they'd like to meet with Chapman in the next week.
  • Cardinals: A scheduled October 26th meeting was cancelled due to the Tony La Russa announcement.  The meeting is expected to be rescheduled.
  • Orioles: They've maintained interest and are pushing for a meeting soon.  In September, president Andy MacPhail admitted interest to MASN's Roch Kubatko, but added, "If some of the big boys are going to go after him, like the Red Sox did with Dice-K, that's not a risk that I would be willing to take."
  • Mets: They met with Chapman on October 23rd.  The New York Post's Bart Hubbuch said the Mets were out after being told Chapman wants up to $60MM to sign.  I'm not so sure the Mets and Chapman actually discussed dollar figures.
  • Tigers: They've confirmed interest.
  • Angels:  Scouting director Eddie Bane admitted interest in July, but noted that Chapman's breaking pitches are not yet effective in talking to Mark Saxon of the OC Register.  Bane more recently told Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times that he'd need to see Chapman throw against live hitters before investing.  Chapman has mentioned L.A. as a place he'd like to visit.
  • White Sox:  Our source said they've expressed interest.
  • Cubs: Our source said they've expressed interest.
  • Athletics:  Named by Arangure Jr. as one of the teams "paying varying degrees of attention to Chapman."  Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle confirmed Oakland's interest but says they haven't met with him.
  • Giants:  Named by Arangure Jr. as one of the teams "paying varying degrees of attention to Chapman."
  • Dodgers: They aren't likely to be serious suitors, according to one of Arangure Jr.'s sources.
  • Blue Jays:  We named the Jays as an interested club, but GM Alex Anthopoulos told reporters that signing Chapman is "not realistic."
  • Astros: Owner Drayton McLane seemingly considers Chapman too pricey, based on his comments to Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle.

Odds & Ends: Cubs, Byrnes, Orioles

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Links for Wednesday…

Discussion: Marlon Byrd

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32-year-old outfielder Marlon Byrd makes for an interesting free agent case.  He set career highs with 599 plate appearances, 20 home runs, and 89 RBIs this year.  On the other hand, his .329 OBP and 5.3% walk rate fell short of his 2008 marks.

Byrd played all three outfield positions, as usual.  He logged the majority of his innings in center field.  His defense in center ranked as a slight negative according to UZR/150; it was a positive in previous years.  John Dewan's plus-minus system also saw Byrd as a slight negative in center.

If Byrd is treated as a corner outfielder, he's not especially interesting.  But the free agent market for center fielders is weak, with Mike Cameron and Coco Crisp the other palatable starting options.  Byrd might be in a position to ask for $5MM+ annually for two or three years (he earned $3.06MM in '09).  The Royals, Cubs, Brewers, and Padres might be in the market for a center fielder, though the Cubs will presumably seek a left-handed bat if they trade Milton Bradley.  It may be a moot point, as the Rangers hope to re-sign Byrd.  At the least, they should offer arbitration to the probable Type B free agent.

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