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Olney On Scutaro, Barajas, Johnson

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The Toronto Blue Jays will almost certainly offer arbitration to Marco Scutaro and Rod Barajas, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney. In today's blog entry, Olney applauds the work being done by GM Alex Anthopolous, who will secure the team three compensation picks if Scutaro and Barajas sign elsewhere, as is expected.

Rather than re-signing Scutaro and Barajas, the Jays are attempting to replace their departing players with comparable options. Signing Alex Gonzalez and pursuing catchers like Yorvit Torrealba allows the team to avoid downgrading too significantly, while earning them compensation draft picks at the same time.

Within the same piece, Olney explains the reasoning behind the Marlins' reluctance to deal Josh Johnson this winter, comparing the situation to the Indians' handling of Cliff Lee. If Florida starts strong in 2010, Johnson will help them contend. If they fall out of the playoff race, however, they could potentially trade the right-hander before next year's deadline and still demand a significant return.

Olney also mentions that extension talks between Johnson and the Marlins hit a snag because the 25-year-old is looking for at least four guaranteed years, and the club didn't want to guarantee that fourth year.

Cafardo On Lowe, Red Sox, Millwood

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As usual, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe brings us a Sunday morning column with some info from around the league. Let's check out a few highlights….

  • Derek Lowe likes pitching for the Braves and would prefer to stay in Atlanta, but acknowledges that he doesn't have much control over the situation. "I understand this is a business and I know the Braves have some things they’d like to do," Lowe told Cafardo. "I hope I can be here because I really enjoy it."
  • Cafardo doesn't think that Roy Halladay will be a Red Sox next season. He can't see a trade happening "unless some sense of realism overtakes the Blue Jays" and they lower the asking price for their ace.
  • Boston's "ideal scenario" according to Cafardo is signing John Lackey and then dangling Clay Buchholz to acquire a bat. Ideal, maybe, but probably not likely.
  • Although the Marco Scutaro-to-Boston rumors have gained momentum since Toronto signed Alex Gonzalez, the Red Sox could still explore other options, such as dealing for Stephen Drew or signing Adam Everett.
  • Given Carl Crawford's strong leadership role in the Rays' clubhouse, Cafardo speculates that the team could eventually bite the bullet and pony up the money to extend Crawford's contract.
  • The Brewers have inquired about Kevin Millwood, but the Rangers haven't actively tried to move the righty.
  • The Giants, Rangers, and Orioles are among the teams who have Miguel Tejada on their radar.

Davidoff On Lowe, Johnson, Torrealba

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In a blog post, Newsday's Ken Davidoff announces that he'll be voting for Mark McGwire on this year's Hall of Fame ballot, and recaps some other items of note:

  • The Atlanta Braves plan to shop Derek Lowe more aggressively after John Lackey signs somewhere. They're hoping that at that point Lowe looks more appealing than the remaining "risky commodities" on the free agent market.
  • Nick Johnson is searching for a two-year deal.
  • Yorvit Torrealba's suitors include the Blue Jays, Rockies, and Giants. The Rays, Marlins, and Royals could also be in the mix, though they're less likely landing spots for the catcher.
  • Davidoff also warns to take talk of Bud Selig's impending retirement with a grain of salt, since there's nothing to stop Selig from changing his mind by 2012.

Indians Notes: Pavano, Free Agent Options

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Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer explains that the Indians would have been hesitant to offer Carl Pavano arbitration if they hadn't traded him to the Twins. After a healthy season, he could command close to $10MM if offered arbitration and the Indians are reluctant to commit that much to the righty, though they may end up bringing him back. Here's more on some free agents the Indians may consider:

  • GM Mark Shapiro is looking to add a right-handed hitting first baseman. Hoynes wonders if Robb Quinlan (.651 OPS vs. LHP last year) and Kevin Millar (.723 OPS vs. LHP last year) might fit. Either player would presumably be cheap compared to other options on the market.
  • The Indians are looking for an extra infielder. Hoynes suggests Ronnie Belliard, Alex Cora and Craig Counsell could be fits for the Tribe.  

Odds & Ends: Scutaro, Astros, Messenger, Selig

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A few more Saturday evening links….

Elias Numbers For Type As

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21 Type A free agents may potentially be offered arbitration by their clubs on Tuesday.  We know that at least a few – Miguel Tejada, Jermaine Dye, and Kevin Gregg – stand little chance of actually getting an offer.  Of those Type As who do receive an offer (there were 15 last year), many will turn it down and sign with a new team.  In those cases, the player's old team will receive a draft pick from his new team as part of the compensation.

15 clubs will lose their 2010 first-round pick if they sign such a Type A free agent: the Rays, Mariners, Tigers, Braves, Twins, Rangers, Marlins, Giants, Cardinals, Rockies, Phillies, Dodgers, Red Sox, Angels, and Yankees.  The other 15 teams would lose their second-round pick.

What happens if one team signs multiple Type As who were offered and turned down arbitration from their old clubs?  How is draft pick compensation sorted out? 

This scenario occurred last year when the Yankees signed three Type As: Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia, and A.J. Burnett.  Which team – the Angels, Brewers, or Blue Jays – received the Yanks' #25 draft pick?  It was the Angels for Teixeira.  The Brewers received the Yanks' #73 pick from the second round, and the Jays got the Yanks' #104 pick from the third round.  (Note that all three teams also received picks in the supplemental first round, but those were not taken from the Yankees).  So the Blue Jays got screwed – they hoped for a pick between #17 and #32, only to receive #104 for Burnett.

The Teixeira/Sabathia/Burnett situation was decided by each player's specific Elias ranking number.  Teixeira (98.889) nudged out Sabathia (98.110), while Burnett's number was 89.729.  So you see that the Brewers just missed getting #25 instead of #73.  They were further burned when Ben Sheets did not sign with a team.

With that background in mind, here are the Elias numbers for this year's Type A free agents (excluding Orlando Cabrera and Takashi Saito, who cannot be offered arbitration):

 Matt Holliday          95.960
Jose Valverde         89.874
Jason Bay              89.859
Johnny Damon       85.634
Mike Gonzalez        84.268
John Lackey          83.865
Rafael Soriano       83.667
Marco Scutaro       83.069
Orlando Hudson     82.488
Bengie Molina        81.224
Miguel Tejada        81.143
Randy Wolf           77.778
Billy Wagner          76.377
LaTroy Hawkins     76.344
Jermaine Dye        76.338
Rafael Betancourt  75.830
Darren Oliver         75.543
Kevin Gregg          75.114
Placido Polanco    74.286
Chone Figgins       73.684
Octavio Dotel         68.007

Using Scutaro as an example…say the Blue Jays offer arbitration and he turns it down.  The same happens with the Braves and Soriano.  If the Red Sox sign both players, Soriano's higher ranking means the Braves get Boston's #29 pick in the June 2010 draft and the Jays get Boston's #61 pick (the Braves and Blue Jays also both get picks in the supplemental first round).

Los Angeles Rumors: Halladay, Matthews, Pierre

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Mike DiGiovanna and Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times pass on a few interesting notes related to the Dodgers and Angels. Here are the highlights:

  • If the Angels were to make a run at Roy Halladay, it would cost them at least one big-league arm from the Joe Saunders/Jered Weaver/Ervin Santana group, which could help offset Halladay's 2010 salary.
  • Angels' owner Arte Moreno has said in the past that he's willing to bump the club's payroll a little for a potential franchise player. This could give the team some financial maneuverability if they tried to trade for Halladay or sign a free agent like Jason Bay.
  • The Dodgers don't want to give up any major league pitching to acquire Halladay, making them an unlikely trading partner for the Jays.
  • Both the Dodgers and Angels have a handful of salaries coming off their books, but will owe plenty of players raises through arbitration, restricting their ability to make much impact in free agency.
  • The Angels will look into dealing Gary Matthews Jr., but would probably have to eat too much of his salary to make a trade worthwhile.
  • The Dodgers have their own outfielder with an oversized contract: Juan Pierre. The team might try to trade Pierre for an equally overpriced back-of-the-rotation pitcher.
  • If the Angels were to retain one of their big free agents (John Lackey, Chone Figgins), they could attempt to backload the contract, helping themselves out financially in the short term.

Marlins Unlikely To Deal Johnson This Offseason

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SATURDAY, 5:26pm: Further squashing rumors of a potential Johnson trade, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports hears from two sources close to the situation that the Marlins have no intention of dealing their ace before Opening Day 2010.

8:41am: ESPN's Buster Olney spoke to some rival executives who indicated that they have not yet been told by the Marlins that Johnson is available.

FRIDAY, 7:18pm: MLB.com's Joe Frisaro warns not to buy into the Johnson trade speculation based on what he has heard (via Twitter).

6:20pm: The Marlins are "very willing" to trade Josh Johnson for the right package, according to John Perrotto (via Twitter).  Just a few weeks ago, it seemed as though the Marlins intended on signing the 25-year-old ace to a multi-year deal.

The 6'7, 250 lb righty is arbitration eligible and due for a big raise from the $1.4MM he earned last season.  Johnson earned a trip to the All-Star game in his best campaign to date, registering a 3.23 ERA with 8.2 K/9.

With a lackluster pool of available free agent starters, what teams should look to acquire Johnson?  What, in your mind, would be right package for the young hurler?  Let's hear your thoughts in the comments section.

Odds & Ends: Gonzalez, Lowell, Mariners

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Links for Saturday…

  • Bob Ryan of The Boston Globe thinks the Red Sox made a big mistake by letting Alex Gonzalez go to Toronto. I can't say I'd be too upset if my team let a guy with a 78 career OPS+ go, no matter how good his defense was.
  • ESPN Boston's Gordon Edes writes that even if the Red Sox eat a big chunk of Mike Lowell's contract, they'll still have trouble trading him because of all the third base options on the free agent market.
  • Geoff Baker of The Seattle Times wrote about all of the flexibility Mariners' GM Jack Zduriencik has going into the winter meetings.
  • Meanwhile, Larry Stone at The Seattle Times wouldn't be surprised to see Kevin Towers end up with the Mariners because of his relationship with Zduriencik.
  • Lynn Henning of The Detroit News guesses that the Tigers will offer arbitration to Placido Polanco, Fernando Rodney, and Brandon Lyon before Tuesday's midnight deadline. Polanco is a Type-A free agent, Rodney and Lyon are both Type-B's.
  • The sale is complete and the Ricketts family has assumed control of the Cubs, according to David Roeder of The Chicago Sun Times.
  • The deadline for the sale of another team, the Rangers, passed more than a week ago, but owner Tom Hicks hasn't indicated what happened, or how many groups actually made a pitch, according to Barry Shlachter of The Star Telegram.
  • Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker passes along the news that Jose Contreras has one less suitor in Japan.  Meanwhile, Ryo Shinkawa writes that Hiroshima is looking into signing Giancarlo Alvarado, who pitched with the Dodgers' Triple-A affiliate last season, posting a 3.49 ERA.
  • The best bet for the Red Sox to fill their need at shortstop might be to make a trade, says Tyler Hissey of MVN.com.  Hissey suggests that Reid Brignac, Stephen Drew, and Yunel Escobar could be had via trade, but would cost the BoSox a pretty penny.
  • Steve Melewski of MASN Sports says that the Orioles can find their next closer in-house.  Recently, we learned that the O's are one of eight teams interested in free agent Billy Wagner.

Rangers Not Searching For Third Baseman

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Despite a report earlier today inferring that the Rangers may be considering signing Marco Scutaro to play third base, GM Jon Daniels told Evan Grant of the Dallas News that they are not looking to squeeze out Michael Young:

"We haven't inquired about anyone for 3B and have no plans to," Daniels wrote in an email. "End of story."

While Scutaro is a favorite of manager Ron Washington, the club has no place in the starting lineup for him.

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