The Marlins’ Offer To Dan Uggla: Part 2
Back in September, the Marlins offered Dan Uggla a three-year deal “in the range of” $24MM, according to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. Uggla should earn $10MM through arbitration next season after hitting 33 homers and posting a career-best .877 OPS in 2010, so the team’s initial offer seemed inadequate, as I pointed out at the time:
“The Marlins' offer does not appear to be worth taking, but the sides have six months before the 2011 season, so the team's proposal is by no means final.”
The Marlins have since doubled the value of their offer and are now prepared to spend $48MM over four years, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. If we assume Uggla is set for a payday of roughly $10MM in 2011, that means the Marlins are offering nearly $13MM per year for Uggla’s age 32-34 seasons. Those would otherwise be free agent years for the second baseman, who can hit the open market after 2011.
Uggla may be able to earn more than $38MM for his 2012-14 production if he hits free agency instead of signing an extension. But the Marlins are willing to offer the money now. For Uggla to have a shot at a $50MM payday next offseason, he would have to stay healthy and continue hitting 30 homers a year.
Uggla hasn’t accepted the Marlins’ offer and if he still wants the five-year $58MM deal he was reportedly seeking earlier in the fall, he may not accept it. That’s his prerogative, of course, but Florida’s offer now seems fair.
Yankees Likely To Offer Jeter $45-60MM
The Yankees are likely to offer Derek Jeter a three-year deal worth $45-60MM, according to Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com. One of Matthews’ sources, someone intimately familiar with knowledge of the team’s negotiations with agent Casey Close, says the Yankees are prepared to “overpay” the shortstop.
No team other than the Yankees has shown interest in Jeter, according to Matthews’ sources. That's not a surprise, considering that Jeter seems likely to re-sign in New York. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports wrote Friday that "Jeter is still Jeter, the Yankees are still the Yankees and no other team will be a factor" [in the negotiations]. ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reported that the Yankees are willing to pay Jeter more than any other team would, even though they aren’t going to invest recklessly in their captain.
MLBTR's Tim Dierkes predicted a four-year $65MM deal between Jeter and the Yankees.
Why Most Type A Free Agents Won’t Sign Right Away
Free agents can now negotiate with any team, but it would be a surprise to see more than a few Type As sign in the next two weeks. Clubs forfeit a top draft pick if they sign Type A free agents before the deadline for teams to offer arbitration to departing free agents. That means teams are probably going to wait until after November 23rd to sign Type A free agents who aren't guaranteed offers of arbitration. If the player's former team doesn't offer arbitration he won't cost anything despite his Type A ranking, so the signing team gets to keep its draft pick.
Some Type A free agents – Carl Crawford and Cliff Lee, for example – are definitely getting offers of arbitration from their former clubs. But the group of Type As below won't necessarily see offers of arbitration, so it seems likely that teams will wait until after the 23rd to finalize deals. Their patience could allow them to hold onto picks in the 2011 draft.
Grant Balfour, Frank Francisco, Jason Frasor, Vladimir Guerrero, Matt Guerrier, Ramon Hernandez, Paul Konerko, Derrek Lee, Bengie Molina, Magglio Ordonez, Carl Pavano, A.J. Pierzynski, Manny Ramirez, Arthur Rhodes, Takashi Saito, Miguel Tejada and Dan Wheeler could certainly re-sign with their former clubs in the next two weeks, but it seems unlikely that they'll reach deals with new teams before November 23rd.
Amateur Signing Bonuses: Mariners
Next up in our amateur signing bonus series, the Mariners…
- Dustin Ackley, $6MM (2009)
- Jeff Clement, $3.4MM (2005)
- Brandon Morrow, $2.45MM (2006)
- Matt Tuiasosopo, $2.29MM (2004)
- Philips Castillo, $2.2MM (2010)
The Mariners have long been a powerhouse when it comes to signing international free agents, but their four largest signing bonuses were given to drafted players. Ackley, the second overall pick last year, hit .267/.368/.407 in 587 plate appearances in 2010, his first professional season. He's also in the process of learning a new position (second base) after playing the outfield and first base at UNC.
Clement was the third overall pick in a top heavy 2005 draft, but that tends to happen when a catcher hits 46 homers in his three-year college career. He reached Triple-A in 2006 and the big leagues a year later, but he flunked a 224 plate appearance audition as the team's regular catcher in the second half of 2008. The Mariners traded Clement and four others to the Pirates for Jack Wilson and Ian Snell before the 2009 trade deadline. He was a .237/.309/.393 hitter in 243 plate appearances for Seattle.
Morrow was one of several power-armed college pitchers in the 2006 draft, going fifth overall. He threw just 16 minor league innings after signing (2.25 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 5.1 BB/9) then broke camp with the team as a reliever in 2007. Morrow pitched to a 4.12 ERA in 63.1 relief innings as a rookie, then tossed up a 3.34 ERA in 40 relief appearances and five starts the next year. It seemed like the Mariners were changing his role every other month, at least until they traded him to the Blue Jays for Brandon League and a minor leaguer last December. All told, Morrow threw 197.2 innings with a 3.96 ERA and 9.3 K/9 for the Mariners (116 relief appearances, 15 starts).
Seattle gave Tuiasosopo a huge bonus as the 93rd overall pick in 2004 (third round), buying him away from a football scholarship to the University of Washington. His brother Marques and father Manu both played in the NFL. Tuiasosopo never lived up to the bonus, hitting just .270/.363/.407 in close to 2,700 minor league plate appearances, though he has had several stints in the big leagues. He's a career .176/.234/.306 hitter in 210 major league plate appearances spread across three seasons.
Castillo signed earlier this summer out of the Dominican Republic. The 16-year-old corner outfielder will begin his professional career next season.
Seattle paid a $13.125MM posting fee for the rights to negotiate with Ichiro Suzuki before the 2001 season, and they then signed him to a three-year, $14.088MM contract that included a $5MM signing bonus. He was far from an amateur though, at least when it comes to his experience level. Felix Hernandez, meanwhile, signed for $710K out of Venezuela in 2002, reportedly turning down larger offers from the Braves and Yankees.
Trade Market For Relievers
The free agent market is packed with useful relievers, especially from the right side. Today let's survey relievers who may be available in trade this offseason.
Closers
Heath Bell, Jonathan Papelbon, David Aardsma, and Leo Nunez could be made available if their teams seek cheaper replacements. All four could earn $4MM+ as arbitration eligible players; Papelbon will jump past $10MM.
Joakim Soria can be retained affordably by the Royals through 2014, and he's only earning $4MM in 2011. In the unlikely event the Royals trade him, it'll be because they were bowled over by an offer of multiple young players. He can block trades to the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Phillies, Cardinals, or Cubs.
Bad Contracts
Francisco Cordero ($13MM through '11), Francisco Rodriguez ($15MM through '11 or $29MM through '12), and Scott Linebrink ($5.5MM through '11) are overpaid and likely immovable right-handed relievers.
Setup Arms
Brandon League and Joba Chamberlain are a couple of arbitration eligible late-inning guys who could be available. League seems less likely to be dealt than Aardsma, and the Mariners probably wouldn't move both. Chamberlain could be acquired by a team looking to use him as a starter.
Non-Tender Candidates
Plenty of relievers are non-tender candidates, meaning they could be trade bait prior to the December 2nd deadline. Gustavo Chacin, Tim Byrdak, Brian Tallet, Jeremy Accardo, Todd Coffey, D.J. Carrasco, Blaine Boyer, George Sherrill, Chris Ray, Joe Smith, Sean White, Jim Johnson, Matt Albers, Dustin Nippert, Lance Cormier, Hideki Okajima, Jared Burton, Manny Delcarmen, Zach Miner, Pat Neshek, Tony Pena, Bobby Jenks, Dustin Moseley, and Sergio Mitre comprise this huge group.
Summary
The list of relief trade candidates is lengthy, but closer types such as Aardsma and Nunez are the most likely to go. A few more trade candidates could surface if certain free agent relievers accept arbitration offers. Teams are unlikely to overpay in trade with so many interesting free agents out there.
Mets Hire Paul DePodesta
The Mets hired Paul DePodesta as their new vice president of player development and amateur scouting, tweets SNY's Brad Como. DePodesta had been working for the Padres since '06. Before that he was the GM of the Dodgers and assistant GM of the Athletics. DePodesta worked under new Mets GM Sandy Alderson in San Diego and under his protege Billy Beane in Oakland. With J.P. Ricciardi already on board, the new Mets front office has a Moneyball feel to it.
Washburn Undecided About 2011
Veteran lefty Jarrod Washburn sat out the 2010 season, but he told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports he's undecided on 2011. Noting that he's been contacted by a couple of teams this week, Washburn explained, "I will not say I am 100 percent retired because a great opportunity might present itself."
Morosi adds that a great opportunity translates as close to Washburn's Wisconsin home. The Brewers or Twins might be his top choices, and both teams should be in the hunt for starting pitching. One point in Milwaukee's favor is their hiring of Ron Roenicke, who worked with Washburn during his Angels days.
Washburn, 36, is a candidate to provide 175 innings of 4.50 ball in 2011. His asking price is an unknown; he's represented by Scott Boras.
Odds & Ends: Renteria, Huff, Takahashi
Four years ago today, the Padres traded Josh Barfield to the Indians for Andrew Brown and Kevin Kouzmanoff. Only Kouzmanoff panned out to any extent; he was sent to the A's with Eric Sogard in January for Aaron Cunningham and Scott Hairston. With Kouzmanoff and Hairston non-tender candidates, Sogard and Cunningham could be the remaining threads of the deal. Links for Monday…
- Do you have experience in online ad sales, ideally for sports websites? MLBTR is looking to bring someone aboard to sell ad inventory on commission. Email mlbtradrep@gmail.com and explain your qualifications if you're interested.
- Edgar Renteria would prefer to return to the Giants, he told Claudia Aguilar Ramirez of El Tiempo. Thanks to Nick Collias for the translation.
- Aubrey Huff hired Ed Hayes as his agent, reported Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports last night.
- The Tigers re-signed catcher Max St. Pierre to a minor league deal, reports Morosi.
- Sanspo has the Angels in the mix for Hisanori Takahashi, tweets Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker. It seems likely that the Halos will add a left-handed reliever this winter; I went with Pedro Feliciano in my Top 50 list.
- Carlos Torres, released by the White Sox last month to pursue a job in Japan, has landed with the Yomiuri Giants according to this Newman tweet.
- Kevin Goldstein's top 11 Pirates prospect list is free to all over at Baseball Prospectus. BP is definitely worth subscribing to for Goldstein's work and much more. We also recommend ESPN Insider, which you'll need to read Keith Law's new starting pitcher buyer's guide.
- Speaking of the Pirates, SI's Jon Heyman says they seem active in early free agent calls and "are believed to be showing interest in some surprising free agent prizes such as [Adrian] Beltre."
- Dave Cameron of FanGraphs believes the Padres should trade Adrian Gonzalez now rather than in July.
2011 Top 50 Free Agents
It's time for the fifth annual MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 Free Agents list! The entire list of available free agents can be found here.
A note before we begin – this is a complicated puzzle, and I'll be satisfied if I'm correct on a quarter of these guesses. If your favorite team seems under-represented, keep in mind that the list doesn't account for trades or every single free agent. The linked player names go to our free agent stock watch pieces.
1. Cliff Lee – Yankees. I could be swayed toward the Rangers, but it seems the Yankees are more desperate for Lee. The Nationals make an interesting dark horse. I can see Lee getting a seventh year, as crazy as that sounds.
2. Carl Crawford – Angels. The Tigers and Red Sox should also be in the mix for the speedy left fielder, who is vying to become the first $100MM man without a 20 home run season on his resume.
3. Adrian Beltre – Red Sox. The Angels are a candidate, though I have a hard time seeing them win the bidding on the Boras client if they get Crawford. If the Red Sox are not able to re-sign Beltre, I see them moving Kevin Youkilis to third base and finding a stopgap first baseman.
4. Jayson Werth – Red Sox. The Sox would have a crowded outfield, but they are known to like Werth and could view him as J.D. Drew's long-term replacement. The Red Sox have already contacted Boras about Werth, according to ESPN's Gordon Edes.
5. Adam Dunn – Cubs. The Nationals have held to a three-year offer. Dunn doesn't want to DH, leaving the Cubs as the only other NL team I can see spending big at first base. The question for the Cubs might be whether they can move Kosuke Fukudome's contract before Dunn signs. The White Sox and Orioles may also have first base openings and Dunn on the radar. Perhaps Dunn's unwillingness to DH will be tested by the Tigers, or they'll offer left field time.
6. Victor Martinez – Tigers. They seem committed to Alex Avila behind the plate, but there aren't a ton of viable left-handed middle of the order bats out there. Adding V-Mart might take the Tigers out of the market for a full-time DH type.
7. Rafael Soriano – Angels. As the best available reliever and a Boras client, Soriano should require a three or four-year deal. I don't love the Angels-Soriano prediction, but I can't find a great match for the righty. The Diamondbacks seek a closer, but this kind of expenditure doesn't seem like Kevin Towers' style.
8. Mariano Rivera – Yankees. Mo is still unstoppable as he approaches his 41st birthday, though it is outlandish to pay a reliever north of $15MM for 65 innings.
9. Paul Konerko – White Sox. Another tough one, if the Orioles look elsewhere and the Diamondbacks opt for someone cheaper. The Nationals and Cubs will be seeking first basemen, but Konerko may not accept a pay cut on his $12MM salary after such a fantastic season.
10. Derek Jeter – Yankees. The most interesting part of Jeter's free agency may be the contract details. I'll say four years, $65MM.
11. Hiroki Kuroda – Pirates. The Bucs are not typically big game hunters in free agency, but Kuroda represents a chance to add one of the better available arms with perhaps only a two-year commitment.
12. Jorge De La Rosa – Royals. Though De La Rosa at least gets groundballs, some consider him another Oliver Perez waiting to happen. Much will depend on whether De La Rosa requires more than three years or $10MM annually. The Pirates and Nationals seem like potential suitors as well, if he can't find common ground with the Rockies.
13. Carl Pavano – Twins. It's still strange to call Pavano dependable, but he's tallied 433 1/3 American League innings over the past two seasons. He'd be a big loss for the Twins.
14. Jake Westbrook – Cardinals. There's optimism for a deal, which would really solidify the Cards' rotation.
15. Aubrey Huff – Giants. There is mutual interest for Huff and the Giants to strike a new deal. If the Giants want to quit while they're ahead with him, both sides will have plenty of alternatives.
16. Juan Uribe – Dodgers. Uribe could be the Dodgers' new full-time second baseman assuming they non-tender Ryan Theriot. But his versatility means he could also fit with the Twins, Mariners, Mets, Astros, Cardinals, Padres, Orioles, Reds, and of course back with the Giants.
17. Carlos Pena – Nationals. Quite a first base carousel could develop this winter, but Pena is a fit with Washington as they look to improve their first base defense. Who knows – perhaps his first extended look at National League pitching will allow him to match Adam Dunn's 38 homers.
18. Jim Thome – Rays. Thome, Vlad, and Manny should all find full-time DH jobs. I can see the Rangers, Rays, and Athletics being the most aggressive in seeking a regular at the position. The Tigers are a good fit for Thome if they miss out on V-Mart.
19. Vladimir Guerrero – Rangers. True, the Rangers already declined Vlad's mutual option, but that was a formality. He is comfortable in Texas, and isn't going to find a huge offer elsewhere.
20. Manny Ramirez – Athletics. Manny makes sense for Oakland on a make-good contract. He had one of the better off-years I've seen, with his .409 OBP ranking second only to Thome among free agents. Durability will be the bigger question.
21. Magglio Ordonez – Blue Jays. Maggs belongs in the AL. The Blue Jays can make some room at DH if they move Adam Lind to first base, while still giving Ordonez some time in right field.
22. Orlando Hudson – Cardinals. He'd help the Cards improve on Skip Schumaker without breaking the bank.
23. Derrek Lee – Brewers. I can see the Orioles or Diamondbacks for Lee, who will have to settle for a one-year deal. But Lee could land in Milwaukee as Prince Fielder's replacement and remain close to home.
24. Lance Berkman – Diamondbacks. If Berkman aims for a place he can DH part-time, the Rays, Blue Jays, or Rangers could work.
25. Andy Pettitte – Retirement. If the Yanks miss out on Cliff Lee, they could be scrambling if Pettitte retires.
26. Jon Garland – Rockies. He's best-suited on an NL team looking for bulk innings. The Rockies could be that club if De La Rosa departs.
27. A.J. Pierzynski – Marlins. They fit all of Pierzynski's preferences and are known to be in the catching market. He also mentioned the Padres, Rangers, Rays, and Red Sox as potential fits if he doesn't re-sign with the White Sox.
28. Miguel Olivo – Rangers. The Red Sox, White Sox, Angels, Marlins, Reds, and Dodgers may also be looking for a catcher, so there's plenty of potential combinations.
29. John Buck – Red Sox. Buck has a supporter on the Sox in assistant GM Allard Baird. They seem unlikely to hand the starting gig to Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
30. Javier Vazquez – Nationals. Vazquez has already expressed interest in pitching for the Nats. His 2010 season was alarming, but there's still the upside of his fantastic 2009 with the Braves.
31. Scott Downs – Red Sox. Downs has the AL East experience to slot into a late inning role for the Red Sox or Yankees. The Phillies and Angels could also be among his suitors, though a draft pick will have to be surrendered.
32. J.J. Putz – Tigers. Putz is officially back after a very strong season with the White Sox. He may seek another shot at closing, but a chance to pitch for the Tigers close to home could be tempting.
33. Brian Fuentes – Diamondbacks. Fuentes will likely go where he has the opportunity to rack up saves. The Braves could be another match if they don't stay internal for the ninth inning.
34. Adam LaRoche – Orioles. The Orioles are going to find a corner infielder one way or another; LaRoche is just one of many free agents they'll probably consider.
35. Hisanori Takahashi – Phillies. He's strong against southpaws and could spot start if need be, so the Phillies are a reasonable match.
36. Pat Burrell – Padres. Burrell had a nice run with the Giants, aside from the playoffs. He could theoretically draw interest from the Braves, Reds, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers as well.
37. Joaquin Benoit – Rays. His numbers for the Rays this year were so absurd, they might be willing to offer him a chance to close in 2011. He'll probably draw interest from a dozen teams, so that could be the difference-maker.
38. Kevin Millwood – Padres. Perhaps Millwood will get a shot at being the Jon Garland of 2011. The Padres will probably bring in one veteran starter, and it's a coveted place to pitch. Millwood could be a match for the Pirates as well.
39. Kevin Correia – Brewers. I like Correia as a sleeper this year. The Brewers could make a big rotation upgrade by way of trading Prince Fielder, and then add Correia at the back end of the rotation cheaply.
40. Arthur Rhodes – Reds. The Reds and Rhodes have mutual interest in a new deal, but the 41-year-old southpaw will be popular on the open market.
41. Pedro Feliciano – Angels. The Phillies and Angels are two teams that seem highly likely to import free agent lefty relievers.
42. Grant Balfour - Yankees. Balfour would be a solid addition at the back of anyone's bullpen. The Yankees will have options, though Balfour has AL East experience.
43. Kerry Wood - Cubs. He wasn't eager to leave after the '08 season, and now the Cubs can fit him into their budget.
44. Scott Podsednik – Reds. Pods fills the Reds' left field and leadoff needs at what should be an affordable price.
45. Yorvit Torrealba – Dodgers. After five seasons as the Dodgers' primary catcher, it seems likely that they'll move on from Russell Martin.
46. Hideki Matsui – Mariners. His choice will probably come down to playing time, and the Mariners need a few quality bats.
47. Johnny Damon – White Sox. They had interest a year ago, and Damon's price should be lower this time around. He's not an ideal DH but he's still an upgrade for the Sox.
48. Kevin Gregg – Braves. I expect they'll add some kind of late-inning veteran with Billy Wagner retiring, and Gregg may be inclined to chase the save opportunities.
49. Koji Uehara – Mets. Uehara, 36 in April, was fantastic in 44 relief innings this year for the Orioles. His price should be held down by the 200+ DL days he logged over the past two seasons. The market is flush with interesting right-handed relievers, but Uehara may still have a dozen suitors.
50. Brandon Webb - Nationals. Interest appears mutual. Unlike last year's Chien-Ming Wang experiment, Webb may require upward of $5MM.
Honorable mentions: Miguel Tejada, Vicente Padilla, Takashi Saito, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch, Brad Penny, Nick Johnson, Bill Hall, Frank Francisco, Jason Frasor, Jose Contreras
Non-tender candidates: click here
Free Agent Stock Watch: Magglio Ordonez
Magglio Ordonez was in line for a $15MM salary next year until a July ankle fracture ended his 2010 season. The Scott Boras client is now a free agent; let's examine his stock.
The Good
- Ordonez hasn't posted an OBP below .376 since '06. His power ticked back up to a .474 SLG after a down '09.
- He can handle an outfield corner, as he was on pace for over 1,000 innings in right field before the injury. Ordonez has never played left field in the Majors, but he'd be wise to consider it.
- If Boras thinks Ordonez has a big 2011 in him, he might consider one-year offers.
- Though Ordonez is a Type A free agent, he won't be offered arbitration and therefore won't cost a draft pick.
The Bad
- Ordonez turns 37 in January and has to be considered a health and/or performance decline risk. In regard to his ankle, Boras told MLB.com's Jason Beck, "I think a lot is being made of a standard fracture." If Boras is correct, Ordonez can point to the fact that he's only had one other DL stint since '06, 18 days for an oblique strain in '08.
- Ordonez's outfield defense might give National League teams pause.
- Boras told Beck "there's going to be very strong demand" for right-handed hitters like Ordonez. That's typical Boras-speak, but it's still possible he's aiming for a $10MM salary or multiple years.
The Verdict
Ordonez could return to the Tigers as a complementary piece. He may also draw interest from the Rays, Blue Jays, Athletics, Mariners, or Rangers for a DH-centric role. If Ordonez is viewed as a corner outfielder, the Phillies, Nationals, Cardinals, Giants, Braves, Reds, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Padres could join the mix. Something like two years and $16MM seems possible, unless Boras is more inclined to try to build up value on a one-year deal.