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Free Agent Stock Watch: Brian Fuentes

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Brian Fuentes was in the right place at the right time in the 2008-09 offseason, coming off a 30 save season when several clubs were willing to spend big on closers.  He fell 20 games finished short of having his 2011 option vest, so the 35-year-old lefty is headed for free agency.  Let's assess his position.

The Pros

  • Fuentes dominated lefties this year: 11.57 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, no home runs in 14 innings.  Also in the small sample department: Fuentes was untouchable in 9.6 innings with the Twins.
  • Assuming Mariano Rivera doesn't field offers from multiple teams, Fuentes can make a case as the second-best free agent closer unless Bobby Jenks is non-tendered.
  • He's a Type B free agent who won't be offered arbitration anyway, so there's no draft pick cost.  Last time around, the Rockies snagged the Angels' #32 pick and chose Tim Wheeler while also taking Rex Brothers in the supplemental round.

The Cons

  • Fuentes is 35 and dealt with back pain this year.
  • He's prone to free passes, with a 3.8 BB/9 on the season.
  • He allowed just 5.8 hits per nine innings and a .227 BABIP, figures that he's highly unlikely to replicate.
  • Fuentes had the highest flyball rate in baseball (58.5%) among those with 40 innings pitched.
  • He's been ordinary against righties the past two years, according to his FanGraphs splits page.
  • Fuentes' price tag will come with the typical closer inflation.

The Verdict

Fuentes may come into the offseason seeking two years and a closer gig, but the supply of available stoppers outweighs the vacancies.  He may have to settle for one year and $4MM unless Beverly Hills Sports Council can create a bidding war.

Blue Jays Hire John Farrell As Manager

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The Blue Jays officially hired John Farrell as their new manager, according to a team press release.  He received a three-year deal, tweets Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun.  Farrell previously served as pitching coach for the Red Sox and director of player development for the Indians.  He's a former pitcher, mostly with the Tribe.

Non-Tender Candidate: Fred Lewis

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Next season in Toronto, the Blue Jays will likely roll out an outfield of Jose Bautista, Travis Snider, and Vernon Wells.  Meanwhile, Fred Lewis says that he considers himself an everyday position player.  The veteran will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter and is due for a raise.

In 480 plate appearances this season, Lewis hit .262/.332/.414 with eight homers.  While the soon-to-be 30-year-old jumped out to a hot start with the Jays, he received less playing time late in the season. 

Even if Lewis does have a change of heart and agrees to stay on in a reserve role, Toronto could still go in a different (and cheaper) direction by using DeWayne Wise as their fourth outfielder.  While Wise likely won't bring the same offensive production as Lewis, his defense (career 8.4 UZR/150) tops what Lewis has been able to do in the outfield (career -2.6 UZR/150)

With all of this in mind, do you believe that the Blue Jays will non-tender Lewis this winter?  Click here to vote and here to view the results.

Giants Won’t Increase Payroll Substantially

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Even though the Giants' postseason run could increase revenues next season, the club will not make a major increase to their payroll, writes Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.

"We're always going to want to be somewhat creative," team president and chief operating officer Larry Baer said. "We're not going to have a doubling effect, or a double-digit massive increase. That's not who we are. The good news is, who we are is not going down in payroll either."

While the organization won't spend tons of money this winter, Baer says that ownership will do what it can to keep the team in tact.  Roughly $20MM will be coming off of the books this offseason but much of that will go to raises for Tim Lincecum, Mark DeRosa, Matt Cain, and Brian Wilson.  Meanwhile, Cody Ross, Jonathan Sanchez, and Andres Torres will all be arbitration-eligible.

The Giants won't be backing up a Brinks truck for a major free agent in the coming months but they have been able to find success on the cheap, as our own Steve Adams pointed out over the weekend.

Odds & Ends: Duncan, Mets, Dodgers, Baylor

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Four years ago today, the Cubs signed Starlin Castro as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic.  He became the team's starting shortstop in May at the age of 20, debuting with a .300/.347/.408 performance.  Links for Monday:

Mets, Brewers GM/Managerial Rumors

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Earlier today, the Blue Jays officially tabbed John Farrell as their next skipper.  The Brewers are still looking for their next manager and the Mets are looking to name their new GM.  Here's the latest, with more to come throughout the evening:

Mets

The Mets, as expected, interviewed former Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes for a second time today, tweets David Lennon of Newsday.  Sandy Alderson, reported by many to be the frontrunner for the position, is scheduled to come in for his second interview tomorrow.  Both Lennon and Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com believe that a decision could come as soon as Friday.

Brewers

Dodgers Triple-A manager Tim Wallach is no longer in the running for the Brewers job, a "very good source" tells Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.  It would seem that there are four finalists for the job, two of which are White Sox bench coach Joey Cora and former Arizona skipper Bob Melvin.  Haudricourt suspects that Halos bench coach Ron Roenicke is one of the finalists as well.  Melvin still appears to be the favorite as he is well-liked by the Brewers' decision makers.

Roenicke, when contacted by MLB.com's Adam McCalvy, refused to say whether he is among the four mystery finalists for the Brewers job.  Updated at 10:00pm.

 

Manny Ramirez Likes Farrell, Blue Jays

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Manny Ramirez would like to play for the Blue Jays under new manager John Farrell, the slugger told ESPN's Enrique Rojas (story in Spanish).  Ramirez and Farrell crossed paths on the Red Sox, of course.  Manny added that he had hernia surgery two weeks ago and was never 100% during the season.  He feels like he has a lot of baseball left and can stay healthy as a designated hitter.

Ramirez, 38, hit .298/.409/.460 in 320 plate appearances for the Dodgers and White Sox this year.  That's a down year by his standards, but it's also the best OBP of any free agent.  Manny said he's liked the Blue Jays since they had great Dominican players in the 80s.  To make room for Ramirez at DH, the Jays would have to use Adam Lind at first base.

Last Year’s Big Free Agent Deals

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20 players signed free agent deals worth at least $10MM last offseason.  How'd those work out?

  • Matt Holliday, Cardinals: seven years, $120MM.  Holliday lived up to expectations in year one.
  • John Lackey, Red Sox: five years, $82.5MM.  The Red Sox would probably undo this contract given the chance.  Lackey shook off the health problems of 2008-09 by tossing 215 innings, but his performance dropped off in most aspects.
  • Jason Bay, Mets: four years, $66MM.  Bay's numbers fell off a cliff, and then a concussion ended his season on July 25th.  The Mets would undo this contract if they could.
  • Chone Figgins, Mariners: four years, $36MM.  Figgins' walk rate and batting average fell as the Ms moved him from leading off and playing third base to batting second and playing second base.  There was also a July dugout altercation with manager Don Wakamatsu.  The Mariners would undo this deal.
  • Aroldis Chapman, Reds: six years, $30.25MM.  No regrets here, as Chapman dominated in 13.3 relief innings for the Reds and electrified fans with the fastest pitch ever recorded.  Other teams are wishing they'd outbid the Reds.
  • Randy Wolf, Brewers: three years, $29.75MM.  Like Lackey, Wolf provided innings but at reduced effectiveness.  I'm guessing the Brewers are disappointed.
  • Placido Polanco, Phillies: three years, $18MM.  I imagine the Phillies are satisifed with this deal, as Polanco hit .298/.339/.386 while playing solid defense at third base.
  • Joel Pineiro, Angels: two years, $16MM.  He missed two months with an oblique strain, but the Halos are probably still happy given his 3.84 ERA in 152.3 innings.
  • Mike Cameron, Red Sox: two years, $15.5MM.  He played in only 48 games due to an abdominal strain that resulted in August surgery.  The team probably regrets the contract.
  • Marlon Byrd, Cubs: three years, $15MM.  Byrd hit .293/.346/.429 in his Cubs debut and played capable defense; the Cubs are likely fine with his contract.
  • Brandon Lyon, Astros: three years, $15MM.  He tossed 78 innings of 3.12 ball, picking up 20 saves when Matt Lindstrom got hurt.  The contract was panned at the time, but the Astros got what they hoped for.
  • Jason Marquis, Nationals: two years, $15MM.  I thought Marquis would be mediocre, not hurt.  A surprising elbow injury limited him to 13 starts and has the Nats regretting the deal.
  • Jose Valverde, Tigers: two years, $14MM.  He had some elbow woes in September but generally met the team's expectations.
  • Marco Scutaro, Red Sox: two years, $12.5MM.  He stayed healthy and did a decent job on offense and defense, so the Sox are probably OK with the contract.
  • Mark DeRosa, Giants: two years, $12MM.  Wrist surgery limited him to 26 games, so the Giants would prefer a mulligan.
  • Mike Gonzalez, Orioles: two years, $12MM.  The lefty finished strong, but shoulder pain limited Gonzalez to 24.6 innings.  The Orioles would like to have this one back.
  • Andy Pettitte, Yankees: one year, $11.75MM.  A groin injury limited Pettitte to 129 innings, but a 3.28 ERA made it worthwhile.
  • Fernando Rodney, Angels: two years, $11MM.  It was an unimpressive campaign, though not an unpredictable one given his '09 stats.  The Angels would probably undo this deal.
  • Adrian Beltre, Red Sox: one year, $10MM.  Beltre had an MVP-type season and was a huge bargain for Boston.
  • Ben Sheets, Athletics: one year, $10MM.  Elbow problems limited Sheets to 119.3 innings of 4.53 ball.  The deal was regrettable.
  • There you have it: over half a billion bucks and 57 contract years given to the 20 most expensive free agents last winter.  By my estimate, teams regret half of these deals.

Trade Market For Center Fielders

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After Coco Crisp and Jayson Werth, the free agent market for center fielders is barren.  The Royals, Braves, Marlins, Nationals, and Padres may be looking for help at the position; let's see what the trade market offers.

Star Potential

Three potential stars, all 26 or younger, have surfaced in the rumor mill: Colby Rasmus, Matt Kemp, and B.J. Upton. 

Rasmus is seemingly untouchable after a .276/.361/.498 performance at age 23.  Though Rasmus requested a trade earlier this year, GM John Mozeliak said on September 26th, "I can assure you, Colby's not going to be traded."  It was reported on October 6th that multiple teams are preparing a push for Rasmus anyway, but I expect Mozeliak to keep his word.

Kemp, signed through '11 and under team control through '12, slumped to .249/.310/.450 with apparently poor defense this year.  Dodgers GM Ned Colletti wasn't as firm as Mozeliak was about Rasmus, but Colletti's October 2nd comments to ESPN's Buster Olney indicate Kemp's also staying put.  Colletti said he'll listen on any player, "But there's not going to be any shopping on our part.  I view all of our core younger guys as people who are going to be here for a while."  It appears the Nationals will kick the tires.

Upton has not been able to match his offensive production of 2007-08, but he still adds value defensively.  He'll earn more than $3MM as a second-time arbitration eligible player, but even the cost-conscious Rays might prefer to keep him given Carl Crawford's expected departure.  Highly-regarded prospect Desmond Jennings has mostly played center in his career, so he could replace Upton if necessary.

Crawford Consequences

Should the Yankees or Red Sox win the bidding for Crawford, a center fielder could become available.  The Sox have Mike Cameron ($7.25MM for '11) and Jacoby Ellsbury (team control through '13), while the Yankees have Curtis Granderson ($20.25MM through '12) and Brett Gardner (team control through '14).  Darnell McDonald, who logged 450.6 center field innings for the Sox this year, could also be trade bait if a logjam develops.

Veterans Under Contract

Carlos Beltran ($18.5MM), Grady Sizemore ($8MM), Kosuke Fukudome ($13.5MM), Nate McLouth ($7.75MM), and Skip Schumaker ($2.7MM) are all signed through next season, with Schumaker arbitration eligible after that and the rest heading toward free agency.  Aaron Rowand is owed $24MM through '12.  Beltran and Sizemore must prove their health, though the former played a half-season and came alive in the final month.  Fukudome and Schumaker were not primarily center fielders this year.  McLouth and Rowand were major negatives offensively.

Possibly Expendable

Nyjer Morgan, Rajai Davis, and Jordan Schafer could be viewed as expendable by the Nationals, Athletics, and Braves.  Morgan's future may depend on whether the Nationals add an outfielder, while Davis' could rest on Coco Crisp's option and the team's corner outfield alternatives.  Schafer, the Braves' 2009 Opening Day center fielder, had a lost year partially due to wrist problems.

Non-Tender Candidates

Tony Gwynn, Scott Hairston, Reggie Willits, and Dewayne Wise could be on the non-tender bubble come December 2nd, and therefore might be trade candidates.  You wouldn't consider any of these players a starting center fielder, though.

Summary

Rasmus and Kemp may be nearly impossible to pry loose, but the trade market for center fielders still offers more promise than the available free agents.  Clubs willing to gamble on well-paid health risks will have more options.

Cardinals, Dave Duncan Reach Two-Year Agreement

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The Cardinals have reached a two-year agreement with esteemed pitching coach Dave Duncan, reports Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  The contract includes a mutual option for 2013.  There are some high-profile pitching coach openings this winter, but the game's best is staying put.  Cardinals manager Tony La Russa signed a contract guaranteeing one year, but Duncan wanted more security.

Additionally, the Cardinals announced that Mark McGwire will return as the hitting coach, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.

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