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Poll: Where Will Joe Blanton End Up?

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After signing free agent Cliff Lee to a five-year, $120MM pact, it's no secret that the Phillies need to trim payroll.  In fact, if they don't move well-compensated pitcher Joe Blanton, they'll have no room to make any acquisitions at the trade deadline, a source tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  The right-hander is due $8.5MM over each of the next two seasons.

The market for Blanton should become more clear once Carl Pavano, now the market's top free agent starter, signs with a club.  Blanton is five years Pavano's junior and wouldn't be a bad consolation prize for any team.  It's also possible that the Phillies could hang on to the 30-year-old, but as Rosenthal pointed out, it would handcuff the club.  With the teams that have been linked to Pavano as a guide, where do you envision Blanton winding up?

 

Remaining Important Offseason Dates

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The vast majority of the major offseason moves have already been made, though there are still a few top notch free agents waiting to be signed. The deadlines to offer free agents arbitration and to tender contracts to players with less than six years of service time have passed, ditto the always fun Winter Meetings. The offseason doesn't end there though, here is a list of important date still to come…

  • January 5th – 15th: Teams and players file for arbitration. More than 150 arbitration-eligible players are still without contracts for the 2011 season. 
  • January 18th: Salary arbitration figures are exchanged.
  • February 1st – 21st: Salary arbitration hearings are held. Most of those 150+ players will agree to a deal beforehand and avoid a hearing.
  • March 2nd – 11th: Players in their pre-arbitration years will have their contracts renewed by their team at any amount (as long as it exceeds 80% of their salary from the previous year) during this time.
  • March 28th: Deadline to release players with non-guaranteed contracts without having to pay them their full 2011 salary.

Padres Trading From Position Of Depth This Offseason

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Every offseason we see teams try to improve by trading from a position of depth and strength. For many clubs that means prospects, but it could also be a spare position player or even a starting pitcher. Very rarely do we see a team trade away multiple quality relief arms in one offseason, though. That, however, is exactly what the Padres have done this winter.

San Diego's bullpen was far and away the best in the game this past season. They led MLB with a 2.81 ERA and a 2.9 BB/9 (2.5 if you take out intentional walks), and placed second with 9.6 K/9 and fifth with a 45.8% ground ball rate. If you believe in fielding independent metrics and WAR, the Padres relief corps led the game with a 2.97 FIP and 7.8 WAR, and not by a small margin either.

Given the general lack of decent bullpen help available, GM Jed Hoyer saw that he had not just a valuable commodity but a surplus of it, and he acted accordingly. First he secured five years of an everyday centerfielder in Cameron Maybin by trading a pair of bullpen arms – righties Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb – to the Marlins. The duo combined for a 3.29 ERA with 8.1 K/9 and just 1.4 BB/9 (removing intentional walks) in close to 130 innings in 2010. Maybin, still only 23, owns just a .692 career OPS, but that will be an improvement over the .680 OPS the Padres got from their center fielders in 2010. He should also be very good defensively.

The next move involved upgrading the middle infield. In exchange for Jason Bartlett (and a player to be named), Hoyer parted with four young players, including three relief pitchers. Adam Russell and Cesar Ramos combined to strike out 27 in 24 innings for San Diego last season, and Brandon Gomes pitched to a 1.87 ERA with 11.6 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 72 1/3 Double-A innings. Even if Bartlett repeats 2010's performance of .254/.324/.350 (a career low OPS in a full season), he'll improve on the .244/.306/.360 batting line the Padres got out of their shortstops in 2010.

Despite trading away five total relievers in the two deals, Hoyer still held on to the majors' best late game trio: Heath Bell, Mike Adams, and Luke Gregerson. They combined for 215 innings with a 2.34 ERA, 10.4 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 (removing intentional walks) this season. Bell, a free agent after the 2011 season, is a candidate to be traded during the summer, in which case Adams and Gregerson would simply move up a peg on the end-game totem pole.

Beyond the Bell-Adams-Gregerson monster, the Padres also have Ernesto Frieri (11.7 K/9 in a 33-game cameo in 2010) and lefty specialist Joe Thatcher (held left-handers to .197/.239/.288 in 2010) for the middle innings, plus they signed Dustin Moseley (3.77 ERA as a reliever in 2010) this offseason. Right-hander George Kontos (9.1 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 before having Tommy John surgery in the middle of the 2009 season) was selected in the Rule 5 Draft as well. Tim Stauffer was baseball's best long reliever (1.87 ERA) before moving into the rotation late in the year, but he could find himself back in the bullpen if some of the team's younger arms step forward and grab rotation spots.

Quality bullpen help is tough to find these days, but the Padres have plenty of it. Part of it is the Petco Park effect, part of it is great scouting and player development. GM Jed Hoyer identified his team's bullpen as a position of strength, and used excess pieces to improve other areas of his club this offseason.

Poll: Trevor Hoffman’s Future

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When you look through our list of available free agents, two players stand out as surefire future Hall of Famers: Manny Ramirez and Trevor Hoffman. Manny has been involved in his fair share of rumors this offseason, but all has been quite on the Hoffman front. The 43-year-old told MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy that he still wants to pitch, but “the offers are sparse.” There was some thought that he could return to the Padres if they trade Heath Bell, but that obviously hasn’t happened yet. 

Hoffman, baseball’s all-time saves leader, lost his job as Milwaukee’s closer during the 2010 season, though he finished the year with a 2.67 ERA in his final 30.1 innings. His fastball velocity, never anything special to begin with, has been trending downward the last few years. If Hoffman can’t find a job to his liking before Spring Training, he could opt to retire with 601 career saves to his credit and over $80MM in career earnings (according to Baseball-Reference.com). 

Considering the multiyear, big dollar deals handed out to relievers this offseason, it’s not crazy to think that Hoffman could end up being a bargain on a low-salary, one-year contract. But will anyone give it to him?

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Greinke, Rangers, Pavano

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On this date five years ago, the Nationals and lefty reliever Mike Stanton agreed to a one-year contract worth $1MM, making him the first player in Washington Nationals history to have two stints with the team. Stanton made 30 appearances with the club in 2005 before being traded to the Red Sox, and his second stint in 2006 lasted 56 appearances before being traded to the Giants.

Here is this week's collection of links, with a healthy dose of Zack Greinke talk…

If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.

Reds Notes: Webb, Cueto, Votto, Podsednik

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Here's the latest from the Queen City, courtesy of The Cincinnati Enquirer's John Fay…

  • With Arthur Rhodes set to join the Rangers, the Reds now have money to spend elsewhere, including on a shortstop, lefty hitting outfielder, and potentially a rehabbing starting pitcher.
  • Assistant GM Bob Miller told Fay that the Reds have not had any recent conversations with Brandon Webb.
  • Miller also confirmed that there have been no further talks with Johnny Cueto about a long-term extension. Earlier this month we heard that the two sides had some preliminary discussions about a contract.
  • "That's not going to happen quick," said Miller when asked about an extension for NL MVP Joey Votto. The two sides have had some talks, however.
  • Miller confirmed the team's interest in Scott Podsednik.

Marlins Extend Ricky Nolasco

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The Marlins officially signed Ricky Nolasco to a three-year contract extension worth $26.5MM today according to a team press release.  He can earn another $1.5MM based on innings pitched. The deal buys out the right-hander's two remaining years of arbitration eligibility as well as one year of free agency.

Nolasco becomes the second Marlins' starter to agree to a contract extension in as many offseasons. Last year the team signed staff ace Josh Johnson to a four-year contract worth $39MM, buying out two years of arbitration eligibility and two years of free agency. Both Nolasco and Johnson are represented by Matt Sosnick, who also landed a six-year, $51MM contract extension for Jay Bruce this offseason.

Earlier this month we heard that the two sides had hit a bit of a snag in their negotiations, but Sosnick told us that they remained optimistic about getting a deal done. Clearly, his optimism was warranted. Nolasco had been mentioned as a trade candidate if the two sides were unable to work out a new contract.

The 28-year-old posted a 4.51 ERA in 157.2 innings this past season, though he once again put up stunning peripheral stats. Nolasco struck out 8.4 batters per nine innings pitched and walked just 1.8 per nine unintentionally. For his career, he owns an 8.0 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 (again removing intentional walks), though he is a bit homer prone (1.2 HR/9).

MLB.com's Joe Frisaro originally reported that the two sides were on the verge of a deal while Juan C. Rodriguez of The Sun Sentinel reported the agreement.

Discussion: Billy Butler’s Future In Kansas City

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With Zack Greinke now a Milwaukee Brewer, the last thing Royals fans want to think about is another of their team's few established stars leaving Kauffman Stadium.  No, it's not Joakim Soria, but rather Billy Butler.  The young first baseman is headed to arbitration for the first time this winter, and how the Royals approach this situation will tell us if the club considers Butler to be part of their long-term plans.

Butler, 24, has blossomed into one of the game's up-and-coming stars, posting an .855 OPS over the last two seasons as Kansas City's everyday first baseman.  Even though his home run numbers dropped from 21 in 2009 to 15 last season, Butler is still far and away the biggest threat in the K.C. lineup, especially now that David DeJesus has been traded.

With Butler's production and young age in mind, surely it makes sense for the Royals to sign Butler to an extension that carries at least through his arbitration years, right?  Well, not necessarily.  The Royals already have another promising first baseman on the major league roster in Kila Ka'aihue, and another (Eric Hosmer) is one of the top prospects in K.C.'s vaunted minor league system. 

Ka'aihue got his first significant taste of major league playing time last season.  He posted a .702 OPS in 206 plate appearances overall, and hit .274/.361/.548 playing every day in September.  The Hawaii native has put up big minor league numbers over the last three years, and though it took him six years just to reach Triple-A, Ka'aihue began his pro career at age 18 and only turns 27 in March.

Hosmer was picked third overall by K.C. in the 2008 amateur draft, and has so far lived up to that selection by hitting .298/.378/.483 in his three pro seasons.  Hosmer is projected to move up to Triple-A in 2011 and barring any unexpected setbacks will be a huge part of the Royals' future.

The question facing the cash-conscious Royals is simple: do they lock up Butler now in the hopes that he'll be entering his prime years when the club is ready to contend in 2013, or do the Royals shop Butler at the trade deadline and see if they can score even more premium prospects for the first baseman?  If Butler is dealt, then Ka'aihue takes over first base duties and it frees up the DH spot for Hosmer in 2012 and beyond (or, vice versa, with Hosmer at first and Ka'aihue as the DH).

If the Royals sign Butler to a big multi-year extension, then they're going all-in with him and Ka'aihue becomes the one on the trading block once Hosmer is ready.  If the Royals sign Butler to just a one-year contract for 2011 (worth probably between $3-4MM), then the team is basically just holding off on any long-term decisions until they can see what they really have in Ka'aihue and Hosmer.  If I had to guess, I'd say the latter option is more likely to happen, though K.C. might also feel a Butler deal covering two arbitration years makes financial sense and gives a team a bit of good local press in the wake of the Greinke trade.

Odds & Ends: Yankees, Blanton, Garza, LaRoche

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This has been a pretty good few months for Giants fans.  Not only did their team end a 56-year World Series drought, but now TV announcers Mike Krukow and Duane Kuiper are close to six-year extensions to continue broadcasting Giants games, reports Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.

Onto some other Thursday news…

  • Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork.com looks at Hal Steinbrenner's "frugal approach" and how it won't go over well in New York if the Yankees don't win.
  • Andy Pettitte has delayed his retirement decision long enough that if he does choose to return next year, he's already behind on his preseason preparations, observes ESPN.com's Buster Olney.
  • In an MLB.com mailbag, Ian Browne thinks the Red Sox will look to acquire a veteran backup infielder or "a Bill Hall-type who can play the infield and outfield."
  • The Yankees have "had internal chats" about signing Manny Ramirez, tweets Jack Curry of the YES Network.  Curry rates the odds of Ramirez in pinstripes as even slimmer than those of the Yanks signing Johnny Damon, which Curry says "is also unlikely."
  • With the pitching market so thin, baseball sources tell MLB.com's Todd Zolecki that the Phillies shouldn't have any trouble dealing Joe Blanton and might not even have to eat much of the $17MM Blanton is owed through 2012.
  • MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez and Matthew Leach go point/counterpoint on whether or not the Rays should be shopping Matt Garza.
  • Buck Showalter denies reports that the Orioles have made a three-year, $21MM offer to Adam LaRoche, tweets MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli.
  • ESPN's Keith Law chats with fans about a number of topics, including the Zack Greinke trade, Kerry Wood's deal with the Cubs, and various teams' minor league systems and prospects.
  • Speaking of the Greinke trade, MLB.com's Mark Sheldon explains why Cincinnati didn't make a move for the ace right-hander and discusses other Reds-related matters in a fan mailbag.
  • In a separate piece, Sheldon writes that the Reds will look internally to replace Arthur Rhodes, who agreed to a contract with Texas today.

This Date In Transactions History: December 23rd

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Let's take a look back at which teams got themselves an early Christmas present (or a lump of coal) on past December 23rds…

  • It's only been a year since the Blue Jays acquired Brandon Morrow from the Mariners in exchange for Brandon League and Johermyn Chavez, but we might already be able to call this trade in Toronto's favor.  Morrow posted a 4.49 ERA and a 10.9 K/9 rate in 26 starts for the Jays, the most impressive of which was his 17-strikeout, one-hit, complete game masterpiece against Tampa Bay on August 8.  League had a good year himself (3.42 ERA, 2.07 K/BB ratio, 70 appearances) but he and Chavez don't equal a potential ace starter like Morrow.
  • Two players that most fans would regard as polar opposites signed free agent contracts on December 23, 2004.  J.D. Drew (often criticized for his alleged lack of passion on the field) signed a five-year, $55MM deal with the Dodgers, while the textbook "scrapper" David Eckstein signed a three-year, $10.25MM contract with the Cardinals.  Eckstein became a folk hero in St. Louis when he was named MVP of the 2006 World Series, while Drew was reviled in L.A. for exercising an escape clause in his contract to sign a five-year, $70MM deal with Boston after the 2006 season.  Drew got some October glory himself the next year, helping lead the Red Sox to the 2007 World Series title.
  • You know Arthur Rhodes has played for a lot of teams when today wasn't even the first December 23rd signing of his career.  On this day in 2003, Rhodes signed with the A's but ended up struggling in his new closing role.  Rhodes posted a 5.12 ERA with Oakland and was dealt to Pittsburgh after the season.
  • On this day in 1999, the Mets acquired Derek Bell and Mike Hampton from Houston in exchange for Octavio Dotel, Roger Cedeno and Kyle Kessel in a deal that worked for both clubs.  Bell and Hampton were only in New York for one season, but they helped the Mets reach the 2000 World Series.  Dotel, meanwhile, was a standout set-up man for Billy Wagner in Houston, posting a 2.33 ERA and a whopping 11.2 K/9 rate between 2001 and 2003.
  • Potential Hall-of-Famer Tim Raines was dealt from the Expos on this day in 1990 to the White Sox in a deal that also saw Ivan Calderon go to Montreal.  Raines posted a .283/.375/.407 line in five years in Chicago, and then was a key cog on the Yankees' World Series-winning teams in 1996 and 1998.
  • The late Sparky Anderson was traded from the Dodgers to the Phillies on this day in 1958.  Anderson's only major league experience came in 1959 with Philadelphia (a .531 OPS in 527 plate appearances) and he missed being a part of the Dodgers' 1959 World Series championship squad.  Needless to say, Anderson created his own Series memories years later as a manager.
  • Finally, the New York Giants purchased Edd Roush for the princely sum of $7.5K from the Newark Pepper on this day in 1915.  This set the stage for one of the most historically notable transactions in baseball history the following year, when the Giants sent a package of three future Hall-of-Famers (Roush, Bill McKechnie and Christy Mathewson) to Cincinnati on July 20, 1916.  For that bounty the Giants received Buck Herzog (career .664 OPS) and Red Killefer (.642 OPS).

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