Poll: Can The Blue Jays Keep This Up?

Entering the 2025 season, the narrative surrounding the Blue Jays had centered primarily around the future of star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for quite some time. Questions regarding Guerrero’s future arguably overshadowed questions regarding the state of the team as a whole coming off an 88-loss season in 2024 that saw the team finish dead last in the AL East. The Jays finally locked up their homegrown star in early April, but the following month saw the team fail to do much on the field that inspired confidence in their status as potential contenders. On May 7, the Jays had a lackluster 16-20 record and would need to leapfrog six teams in order to get into playoff position. Six weeks later, they’ve done all of that and more. Toronto currently boasts a robust 40-33 record that places them in the second of three AL Wild Card spots and just two games back of the Yankees for the AL East crown.

Going 24-13 over their past 37 games is certainly impressive, but it begs the question: which version of the Blue Jays is the real one? Looking at the season as a whole, Toronto is a somewhat middling club. Their team wRC+ of 106 ranks 12th in the majors, which is solid but hardly spectacular. The same can be said of their bullpen, which ranks 11th in ERA and 9th in FIP this year with identical 3.60 figures in both stats. While both of those numbers are more or less in line with what one would expect from a Wild Card contender, the starting pitching is a different story. The Jays’ rotation has been a disaster this year with a 4.61 ERA (26th in the majors) and 4.72 FIP (27th). That bottom-five rotation in the sport has left the Jays with a negative run differential, as they’ve been outscored by their opponents 319-315 even after this recent stretch of strong play.

A closer look at the team’s performance over the past six weeks offers a hint at what’s changed. While the Toronto offense has been only slightly better than average on the season as a whole, Blue Jays hitters have been among the sport’s very best from May 8 onward. In that time, they’ve slashed .270/.339/.443 as a team with a 121 wRC+, second to only the Dodgers in MLB. In other words, the team’s average slash line during their recent hot streak has roughly mirrored Gunnar Henderson’s overall offensive production this year. Guerrero is a big part of this, as he’s begun to heat up after a slow start to the year with a 152 wRC+ over the past six weeks. Bo Bichette (131 wRC+) and Alejandro Kirk (145 wRC+) have played closer to the star-level expectations they had fostered in previous seasons than 2024’s down years during that same time frame, as well. Not all of that success is entirely sustainable—no one should expect Addison Barger to replicate his 167 wRC+ from the past six weeks long term—but the extreme outlier performances have been balanced by injuries to plays like Daulton Varsho and slumps for players like George Springer (98 wRC+ since May 8).

Some things have remained consistent about the Blue Jays throughout the entire season, however. Even as they’ve found success in recent weeks, the starting pitching has remained brutal. The rotation’s ERA is actually worse over the past six weeks than it has been for the season overall, with a 4.78 ERA that comes in ahead of only the Orioles, Rockies, and Athletics. Decent mid-rotation performances from Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, and Kevin Gausman haven’t been enough to outweigh the struggles of Bowden Francis and the absence of Max Scherzer. Francis was recently placed on the injured list himself and Scherzer is working his way back to the big league roster on a rehab assignment at present, but even a strong return from Scherzer ahead of his 41st birthday would leave the Jays at least one starter short without much top-of-the-rotation impact.

On the other hand, the Jays have generally managed to make up for their abysmal starting pitching with a defensive unit that has been consistently excellent. No team in baseball has come close to Toronto’s defensive prowess this season according to Fangraphs’ defense metric, which gives the Blue Jays a 20.3 figure that’s good for more than double the second-place Braves (8.3). According to Statcast’s Fielding Run Value, Kirk and Ernie Clement have both been elite defensively, as has the center field tandem of Myles Straw and Varsho. Andres Gimenez has also been excellent at the keystone, and even Guerrero has looked solid at first base. While Bichette’s defense leaves much to be desired at shortstop and Springer shouldn’t play the field at this point in his career, it’s a strong defensive unit that has managed to buoy the Jays through their pitching woes. It wouldn’t be a shock if they managed to continue fielding well enough to overcome their weak pitching, at least until closer to the trade deadline when they’ll presumably look to make some external additions.

Where do MLBTR readers stand on the Blue Jays’ chances of sustaining the success they’ve found in recent weeks? Will they be able to hold onto a Wild Card spot and get back into the postseason, or are they destined to fade down the stretch? Have your say in the poll below: