Free Agent Arbitration Offer Predictions
23 free agents were offered arbitration last year, down one from the year prior. This year, I predict that more than 30 players will receive offers. I expect this mainly because of my feelings on the 65 individual candidates. On a macro level, we could see more arbitration offers to free agents due to more value being placed on draft picks. Additionally, teams may be more inclined to offer if they think players are more likely to decline due to the lavish contracts given out so far.
Last year I was correct on 58 of 70 (82.9%). This year there are 63 Type A or B free agents, excluding Joaquin Benoit and John Buck. So hopefully I'm right on at least 53 of these. The deadline is tomorrow night at midnight eastern time, a week earlier than in years past.
Type A
- Grant Balfour – Yes, he will be offered arbitration
- Adrian Beltre – Yes
- Carl Crawford – Yes
- Jorge De La Rosa – Yes
- Scott Downs – Yes
- Adam Dunn – Yes
- Frank Francisco – No
- Jason Frasor – Yes
- Vladimir Guerrero – No
- Matt Guerrier – Yes
- Derek Jeter – Yes
- Paul Konerko – Yes
- Cliff Lee – Yes
- Derrek Lee – No
- Victor Martinez – Yes
- Bengie Molina – No
- Magglio Ordonez – No
- Carl Pavano – Yes
- Andy Pettitte – No
- A.J. Pierzynski – No
- Manny Ramirez - No
- Arthur Rhodes – Yes
- Mariano Rivera - No
- Rafael Soriano – Yes
- Miguel Tejada – No
- Jayson Werth – Yes
- Dan Wheeler – Yes
Type B
- Rod Barajas - No
- Lance Berkman – No
- Orlando Cabrera – No
- Randy Choate – Yes
- Kevin Correia – No
- Jesse Crain – Yes
- Johnny Damon – No
- Octavio Dotel – No
- Chad Durbin – Yes
- David Eckstein – No
- Pedro Feliciano – Yes
- Brian Fuentes – No
- Jon Garland – Yes
- Kevin Gregg – Yes
- Brad Hawpe – No
- Aaron Heilman – No
- Trevor Hoffman – No
- Orlando Hudson – No
- Aubrey Huff – Yes
- Gerald Laird – No
- Adam LaRoche – Yes
- Felipe Lopez – Yes
- Hideki Matsui – No
- Kevin Millwood – No
- Miguel Olivo – Yes
- Carlos Pena – No
- Scott Podsednik – Yes
- J.J. Putz – Yes
- Chad Qualls – No
- Jon Rauch – Yes
- Yorvit Torrealba – Yes
- Koji Uehara - No
- Juan Uribe – Yes
- Jason Varitek – No
- Javier Vazquez – No
- Kerry Wood – No
Thanks to Ben Nicholson-Smith, Mark Gonzales, and others who gave feedback on this list.
Joey Votto Wins NL MVP Award
Reds first baseman Joey Votto won the National League MVP award today, according to the BBWAA. Albert Pujols, Carlos Gonzalez, Adrian Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, Roy Halladay, Aubrey Huff, Jayson Werth, Martin Prado, and Ryan Howard round out the top ten.
At Least Seven Teams Interested In Brandon McCarthy
The Athletics, Astros, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Padres, Mariners, and Tigers are among the teams interested in free agent righty Brandon McCarthy, writes Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. The Rangers acquired McCarthy four years ago mainly for John Danks and Nick Masset in what I described at the time as an offer Kenny Williams couldn't refuse. McCarthy's Rangers career was ruined by injuries, and he was outrighted and elected free agency earlier this month.
Morosi notes that McCarthy has thrown well in the Dominican Winter League, and teams have been scouting him heavily. McCarthy has a history of shoulder injuries, but Morosi says he's subject to a "buy-low frenzy." Since the 6'7" righty has less than five years of big league service time, he could be controlled by his new team through 2012 as an arbitration eligible player.
McCarthy, 27, posted a 3.36 ERA, 7.0 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, and 1.3 HR/9 in 56 1/3 Triple-A innings this year. He tossed 119 innings between the Majors and minors in 2009.
Giants Close To Deal With Aubrey Huff
The Giants are close to a two-year deal worth close to $22MM with first baseman Aubrey Huff, reports Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. The deal will include a club option for 2013.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Arthur Rhodes
Two years ago the Reds took a gamble on 39-year-old lefty Arthur Rhodes, signing him to a two-year, $4MM deal. Last we read, interest was mutual on a new contract. Still, let's examine Rhodes' free agent stock.
The Good
- Since returning to the National League at the 2008 trade deadline, Rhodes has a 2.22 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, and 0.52 HR/9 in 121 2/3 innings across 160 appearances. He's allowed only 86 hits in that time.
- Rhodes dominated lefties this year in 23 2/3 innings, and was solid against them the previous two seasons. His consistent ability to prevent them from getting hits is not credited in a stat like xFIP.
- Rhodes has been around since 1991, so he should offer the intangible of veteran wisdom.
The Bad
- Rhodes is a Type A free agent. We'll know late tomorrow whether the Reds offer arbitration. If Rhodes turns down such an offer, a new team would have to surrender a draft pick to sign him. This could hurt his market quite a bit.
- Rhodes turned 41 last month, which may give teams pause if he seeks a two-year deal.
- He doesn't get many groundballs. That hasn't stopped him from preventing home runs, but some clubs could be concerned. Also, Rhodes is ordinary against right-handed hitters.
- ESPN's Keith Law wasn't kind in his relievers buyer's guide, saying Rhodes' stuff was diminished toward the end of the year and he is "a bad month away from a forced retirement." Would he succeed back in the American League? In Rhodes' defense, he dealt with a sore foot for much of the season.
The Verdict
Rhodes' Type A designation could prevent him from getting another two-year deal. If the Reds offer arbitration, his best move might be to accept rather than try to score a contract elsewhere with the draft pick stigma attached. He'd still be in pretty good shape with a potential $4MM salary for 2011. If the Reds do not offer arbitration, I think Rhodes will get another two-year deal.
Tigers Close To Deal With Victor Martinez
The Tigers are close to a deal with catcher Victor Martinez on a four-year, $50MM contract, reports Ignacio Serrano of El Nacional (link in Spanish). Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports confirm the report, saying a final decision is expected Friday or Saturday. Serrano says Martinez accepted the Tigers' offer, and there will be a deal barring an unforeseen event.
According to Serrano, Martinez turned down a four-year, $48MM offer from the Orioles and a three-year, $48MM offer from the White Sox. That White Sox offer would have been tough to reject, so we'll see if someone confirms it.
Though the Red Sox hoped to re-sign Martinez, they can take solace in receiving the best available draft pick as part of their compensation. The Tigers must surrender their #19 draft pick next year to the Red Sox, unless Detroit also signs Jayson Werth later.
Martinez fulfills the Tigers' need for a middle of the order bat, and as a switch-hitter he can provide protection from the left side. If the Tigers stick with their plan of using Alex Avila often at catcher, Martinez could see most of his time as a designated hitter and backup first baseman.
21 Teams Facing Tomorrow’s Arbitration Deadline
21 of baseball's 30 teams must make at least one decision prior to tomorrow's deadline for offering arbitration to free agents. The Rays lead with nine eligible Type A or B free agents, six of which are relievers. We'll have predictions and polls later today, but here's a team-by-team look.
- Rays: Grant Balfour (A), Carl Crawford (A), Rafael Soriano (A), Dan Wheeler (A), Joaquin Benoit (B), Randy Choate (B), Brad Hawpe (B), Carlos Pena (B), Chad Qualls (B). Benoit has already signed with the Tigers, so he's a lock for an offer. I think Hawpe, Pena, and Qualls are the three who will not get offers, though I'm on the fence on Wheeler.
- Twins: Matt Guerrier (A), Carl Pavano (A), Jesse Crain (B), Brian Fuentes (B), Orlando Hudson (B), Jon Rauch (B). I think Fuentes is the only one of the six not to get an offer, but it is possible the Twins don't want to risk having some of the other players under contract for 2011.
- Yankees: Derek Jeter (A), Andy Pettitte (A), Mariano Rivera (A), Lance Berkman (B), Javier Vazquez (B), Kerry Wood (B). Jeter is the interesting case here. In Joel Sherman's November 10th article, he wrote that of a dozen executives polled there was a split but the majority thought Jeter would be offered arbitration.
- Blue Jays: Scott Downs (A), Jason Frasor (A), John Buck (B), Kevin Gregg (B), Miguel Olivo (B). I can see all five getting offers, though Frasor may not if the Jays consider him accepting to be a negative outcome. Between offers made last year and the trade for Olivo, Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos has been aggressive in courting draft picks.
- Padres: Miguel Tejada (A), Kevin Correia (B), David Eckstein (B), Jon Garland (B), Yorvit Torrealba (B). We don't have a history to look at with Jed Hoyer, but I can see Garland and Torrealba getting offers.
- Rangers: Frank Francisco (A), Vladimir Guerrero (A), Cliff Lee (A), Bengie Molina (A). I'm leaning toward only Lee getting an offer, though a case can be made for Francisco.
- Red Sox: Adrian Beltre (A), Victor Martinez (A), Felipe Lopez (B), Jason Varitek (B). It'd be risky to offer arbitration to Varitek, while Beltre and Martinez are locks for offers. Lopez was seemingly acquired entirely for a chance at a supplemental pick, though some doubt he'd turn down an arbitration offer and sign a big league deal elsewhere.
- White Sox: Paul Konerko (A), A.J. Pierzynski (A), Manny Ramirez (A), J.J. Putz (B). Putz is a good bet for an offer; Manny has no chance. Konerko and Pierzynski are borderline cases – the Sox would probably like both players back, but perhaps not at the salaries they could earn by accepting arbitration. Kenny Williams did offer arbitration to a highly paid free agent he did not want after the '08 season with Orlando Cabrera, and after turning down the offer Cabrera didn't sign until March due to the draft pick cost.
- Tigers: Magglio Ordonez (A), Johnny Damon (B), Gerald Laird (B). These three Scott Boras clients are unlikely to receive offers.
- Diamondbacks: Aaron Heilman (B), Adam LaRoche (B). Heilman at $3MM or so wouldn't be the end of the world, but Kevin Towers has many needs to fill and might have other plans for his bullpen. I can also see LaRoche going either way.
- Dodgers: Rod Barajas (B), Scott Podsednik (B). Ned Colletti has not offered arbitration to his free agents in recent years, but the team seems happy with both players and they're operating off small salaries.
- Giants: Aubrey Huff (B), Juan Uribe (B). The Giants will attempt to retain both players, and there's no reason not to offer arbitration.
- Phillies: Jayson Werth (A), Chad Durbin (B). Werth's a lock and Durbin seems likely. The Phillies want to retain Durbin, but the only thing that gives me pause is that they did not offer arbitration to Jamie Moyer after the '08 season.
- Reds: Arthur Rhodes (A), Orlando Cabrera (B). Rhodes should get an offer but the Reds may prefer not to be tied to Cabrera at this point.
- Rockies: Jorge de la Rosa (A), Octavio Dotel (B). De La Rosa will get an offer, but Dotel probably will not.
- Angels: Hideki Matsui (B). I don't expect an offer.
- Braves: Derrek Lee (A). I don't expect an offer.
- Brewers: Trevor Hoffman (B). No chance of an offer.
- Mets: Pedro Feliciano (B). An offer makes sense for the lefty.
- Nationals: Adam Dunn (A). He seems a lock for an offer, though Josh Byrnes and the Diamondbacks chose not to make one to him after the '08 season.
- Orioles: Kevin Millwood (B), Koji Uehara (B). Millwood won't get an offer. Uehara is eligible to be offered arbitration, Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun tells me. However, I don't think the Orioles will choose to do so.
Iwakuma’s Agent Tweets His Side
Talks between the Athletics and Hisashi Iwakuma broke off on Saturday, and his agent Don Nomura has taken to Twitter to explain why.
Nomura says the A's offered a four-year, $15.25MM deal, for an average of $3.8125MM per year. The team was using Kei Igawa (five years, $20MM) and Colby Lewis (two years, $5MM) as comparables, while Nomura countered with Hiroki Kuroda (three years, $35.3MM) and Daisuke Matsuzaka (six years, $52MM). The A's pointed to their $19.1MM posting fee, but Nomura wanted to keep the pitcher's contract separate (presumably since Iwakuma wouldn't see any of the posting fee money). Nomura remains open to a deal since the sides have until December 8th, though he suggests the A's are now "hunting two free agent pitchers." He finished by noting that the team's offer to Adrian Beltre "was just a PR" move.
Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle broke the story yesterday; her blog post was updated with similar information prior to Nomura's barrage of tweets. Her source pegs the posting fee at $18MM. In either case, Iwakuma would have cost the A's over $8MM a year. In my opinion, that commitment was already plenty risky.
Odds & Ends: Mets, Collins, Minaya, Pirates, Rays
Some links on a Sunday evening:
- SI.com's Jon Heyman tweets that Chip Hale will be on Terry Collins' coaching staff after losing out on the Mets' managerial job. Meanwhile, Andy Martino of The New York Daily News tweets that both Mookie Wilson and Dave Wallace will "definitely be considered" for the coaching staff as well.
- ESPN's Adam Rubin offers up ten tidbits about new Mets' manager Terry Collins.
- Omar Minaya is in no hurry to accept one of the many offers he's received, writes ESPN's Enrique Rojas. The former Mets GM says he's received offers for various positions from several teams, including some to be an assistant general manager.
- Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette tells us that the Pirates are set to hire four coaches for Clint Hurdle's new staff: Ray Searage as the pitching coach, Gregg Ritche as the hitting coach, Jeff Bannister as the third base coach, and Nick Leyva as the bench coach.
- Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times feels that the Rays will hang onto B.J. Upton this offseason and likely won't trade a pitcher (candidates include James Shields, Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann, or Wade Davis) until July, unless the offers get "crazy good" once Cliff Lee signs. He does believe, though, that Jason Bartlett will be traded by Spring Training.
- Bartlett's availability will likely have a negative impact on the market for Marco Scutaro, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal.
- Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer looks at Ruben Amaro's five best and five worst moves, and says the jury is still out on the Philly GM.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Miguel Olivo
The Blue Jays pulled off a nice little move when they acquired Miguel Olivo from the Rockies 17 days ago, essentially swapping a player to be named later or cash for a supplemental first round draft pick. Toronto declined Olivo's $2.5MM option, so add the $500K buyout to the bounty for the draft pick, but more importantly it made Olivo a free agent. Let's review the backstop's stock…
The Good
- Olivo is a proven power threat, hitting no fewer than a dozen homers every year since 2006 and averaging 16 per season during that span. Brian McCann is the only other backstop with double digit homers in each of those years (min. 60% of games behind the plate).
- He's adept at stopping the running game, throwing out 124 of 343 attempted basestealers (36.2%) over the last five seasons.
- Despite the rigors of catching, Olivo has been on the disabled list just once in his career; he missed 15 days when he had kidney stones removed during the summer of 2004. Other than various day-to-day ailments associated with the position, he's been perfectly healthy.
- He's just a Type-B free agent, so it won't cost a draft pick to sign him.
The Bad
- Olivo will turn 33 next July, an age when catchers can start to turn into pumpkins.
- Power is the only thing to like about his offensive game. He doesn't hit for average (.246 career) or draw walks (just 108 unintentional walks in over 3,000 career plate appearances), resulting in paltry on-base percentages (.283 career).
- As good as he is at throwing out base runners, Olivo has led the league in passed balls in four of the last five seasons.
The Verdict
As usual, the number of teams looking for a catcher this winter far exceeds the number of quality catchers available. The Red Sox, Tigers, White Sox, Rangers, Mariners, Dodgers, Padres, and others could all be in the market for a new backstop, so Olivo should have his pick of offers. He's not likely to match John Buck's three-year, $18MM contract given his age, but Olivo's one of the best free agent catchers and the open market should yield a two-year contract.