Epstein Discusses Lowell, Beckett, Offense

Red Sox GM Theo Epstein did an informative interview on the Dennis & Callahan show this morning.  Click here for audio and here for the transcript.  Highlights:

  • Epstein said that by the time the offseason began, the Red Sox evaluated their chances of signing Jason Bay and Matt Holliday at less than ten percent for each.
  • Epstein has not expected a Mike Lowell trade since the Texas deal blew up.  At the time, the Red Sox GM envisioned using the $3MM savings on a hitter, but now expects Lowell to provide that insurance.
  • The team's numbers showed Jacoby Ellsbury as an above-average center fielder in 2009.  Epstein implied that he doesn't put any stock in Ellsbury's UZR.
  • Epstein considers John Lackey's five-year, $82.5MM contract a relevant comparable for Josh Beckett's next deal.  He does not see the Lackey signing as an impediment to retaining Beckett.
  • If the offense is subpar, Epstein is willing to make an in-season acquisition.  He noted that finding a bat at the trade deadline is easier than acquiring an elite pitcher.

Offseason In Review: Detroit Tigers

Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Tigers.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

The offseason began with stories about the Tigers needing to trim payroll.  Saddled with many bad contracts, GM Dave Dombrowski unloaded two good ones in Granderson and Edwin Jackson.  After the December blockbuster it was confusing to see the Tigers commit $22MM to Valverde and Damon in win-now moves (Valverde can contribute beyond 2010, of course).

However, the Edwin Jackson-Scherzer component might provide the best of both worlds – decent savings with no downgrade in production or talent.  And as Joe Pawlikowski explains in this FanGraphs article, the Tigers will gain a lot of payroll flexibility in 2011 due to Dombrowski's offseason moves as well as expiring extensions.

Still, moving Granderson hurts the Tigers in 2010.  If his 2011 salary was a problem, he could've been traded after this season.  Even optimistic projections (i.e., no injuries) have the Tigers' 2010 offense as below-average.  The rotation looks shaky too – Scherzer and Rick Porcello must pile up innings, while the #4-5 spots are huge question marks.

I understand attempting a run in 2010, since there is star talent in Verlander and Miguel Cabrera and no real way to unload the overpaid veterans.  I just think you keep Granderson as part of that 2010 run and find payroll space for a starting pitching addition.  I'm not sure if Scherzer-Edwin Jackson could've been facilitated without the Yankees' contribution.  But if you make that swap and keep Granderson (as opposed to signing Damon) that's more than $5MM to play with toward a free agent starter.  The extra three to five wins gained from keeping Granderson and adding, say, Joel Pineiro, might've pushed the Tigers into contention.

D’Backs Considering Long-Term Deal For Montero

The Diamondbacks have interest in signing catcher Miguel Montero to a long-term deal, MLB.com's Steve Gilbert reported yesterday.  Managing general partner Ken Kendrick mentioned the idea, though negotiations have not begun.  Montero would like to sign long-term.

Montero, 26, played his first full season in '09 and posted an excellent .294/.355/.478 line in 470 plate appearances.  His progress makes Chris Snyder expendable.  If Snyder comes back successfully from back surgery, the D'Backs will be one of very few teams with two legitimate starting catchers.

Montero will earn $2MM in 2010, his first arbitration year.  The D'Backs will presumably want to buy out his '11 and '12 arb years and a free agent season or two.  Instead of using the more expensive contracts of Snyder and Ryan Doumit as comparables, perhaps the D'Backs will look at more recent deals for Chris Iannetta and Carlos Ruiz as models.  Both players gave up their arbitration years more cheaply and allowed for club options on their first free agent seasons.

Cuban Links: Ruiz, Anderson, Serrano

Get out the Spanish-English dictionary and put on Raekwon's Only Built 4 Cuban Linx…

  • Morgan Campbell at the Toronto Star posits that Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos' recent scouting trip to the Dominican Republic could mean the team is "closing in" on Jose Julio Ruiz. Yesterday, Ruiz's trainer told the Nuevo Herald that the first baseman's most recent tryout, his "last before signing," was against Blue Jays players. The blog cubanballplayers.com also reported on Tuesday that Ruiz had a private tryout with the Jays. Both the team and Prestige Sports Agency, which represents Ruiz, remain mum on any communication.
  • Cuban first baseman/outfielder Leslie Anderson tells Angel Mazariego of the Mexican newspaper Sipse that he is willing to play in Mexico this season if nothing materializes for him in the majors. Anderson lists the Red Sox, Yankees, Mariners, Dodgers, Giants and Brewers as the teams he knows to have scouted him recently. Mazariego adds the Dodgers and Tigers to the list.
  • Amaury Perez Torres at the Cuban baseball blog Las Avispas cites a "source close to" pitching prospect Juan Yasser Serrano saying that the right-hander has worked out for 10 major league teams this winter. Most recently, the source says, Serrano struck out four in a two-inning simulation for the Cubs on February 19, with a fastball that touched 93.
  • If it seems like there is more chatter about Cuban defectors than ever before, that's no coincidence, writes Campbell in the Toronto Star. In a lengthy article, he outlines how more Cuban players are now aiming at the major leagues thanks to the success of Kendry Morales and Yunel Escobar, neither of whom was a starter in Cuba. Equally significant was the contract that third base prospect Dayan Viciedo signed with the White Sox in 2008. A Cuban baseball expert in Canada tells Campbell that Viciedo made players on the island think, "If he can get $10 million, then what am I worth?"
  • Speaking of Morales, Jorge Arangure Jr. adds a new dimension to the first baseman's recent switch from Hendricks Sports Management to Scott Boras in an article in ESPN the Magazine. Rodney Fernandez, who recruited both Morales and Aroldis Chapman for Kendricks, is being investigated by the MLBPA and Florida police in regard to $300K that disappeared from Morales' bank account.

No Discount For Adrian Gonzalez

9:04pm: Hayes has an updated story now, and it includes some interesting details. He reports that a Padres source said no teams approached San Diego about a deal for Gonzalez this winter. At last summer's non-waiver trade deadline, the Mariners were close to acquiring Gonzalez in a 6-for-1 trade, but the deal fell through when then-Padres GM Kevin Towers held out for one more player.

2:50pm: Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez isn't interested in a hometown discount, based on this report from Dan Hayes of the North County Times.  In reference to his current contract, Gonzalez said, "At the time you take the security…the next one is where I look for what I deserve."  I imagine he's expecting to top $100MM once he reaches free agency after the 2011 season.  Gonzalez says there have been no extension talks with the Padres.

Gonzalez is sure to continue appearing in trade rumors this summer, but he cautions that "99.9 percent of everything is false."

Odds & Ends: Nationals, Yankees, Red Sox

If you read these very slowly, maybe they'll last until Opening Day!

Anthony Reyes Added To Cleveland’s 40-Man Roster

An under-the-radar move to keep an eye on is Cleveland's decision to add Anthony Reyes to the 40-man roster and place him on the 60-day disabled list, something the Indians needed to do to keep Reyes from exercising an out clause in his contract.

Indians GM Mark Shapiro told MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince that he believes Reyes can help the Indians this year, and there is ample reason to believe him.

Reyes underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2009, providing a medical answer to why a pitcher who had been so dominant in the minors- and occasionally in the majors- could also do things like post a 2-14 record and a 6.07 ERA in 2007 for the Cardinals, or post more walks than strikeouts for Cleveland in 2009.

But it is easy to forget that Reyes was considered one of the top prospects in all of baseball, making Baseball America's Top 100 lists in both 2005 and 2006. In 428 minor league innings, Reyes struck out 446 while walking just 101.

Tommy John surgery is usually a 12-month recovery, so Reyes could be back in action by this June. It is hard to know just how much to expect out of him upon his return, but clearly, Cleveland considers him worth another look.

Rays Notes: Desmond Jennings, Carlos Pena

Talking to Jim Bowden of MLB Home Plate (Twitter link), Rays Senior VP of Baseball Operations Gerry Hunsicker said it would take extraordinary circumstances for top prospect Desmond Jennings to play in the Majors this year.  Jennings is regarded by most as the sixth-best prospect in the game, and it seemed quite possible that he'd muscle his way into the outfield picture this summer.  If Jennings is expected to remain in Triple A, perhaps Carl Crawford is less likely to be traded (although maybe a Crawford trade qualifies as an extraordinary circumstance).

Both Crawford and Carlos Pena will be eligible for free agency after the season, and Hunsicker told Bowden it will be very difficult to retain both.  Rays owner Stuart Sternberg is on record saying, "We're going to do everything we can to make sure [Crawford] stays here longer."  And Rays president Matt Silverman said the team is currently focused on Crawford, with talks ongoing.  That doesn't necessarily make Pena a midseason trade candidate, as the Rays need his bat to contend.  Pena told Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times today that he hopes to stay with the Rays beyond 2010 and is extremely grateful for the opportunity no matter what happens.

Odds & Ends: Halladay, House, Felipe Lopez

Links for Wednesday…