Kevin Gregg’s Options
The Blue Jays have a lot of options when it comes to Kevin Gregg. They will soon decide whether to let him leave, keep him for one year or keep him for two years. After the season, the Blue Jays can buy Gregg out for $750K, exercise his 2011 option (for $4.5MM) or exercise his 2011-12 options at once (for $8.75MM).
Gregg makes things interesting in the ninth inning, walking lots of hitters (4.3 BB/9) but he has a 3.24 ERA with 9.5 K/9 in his first year with the Blue Jays. Since Scott Downs and Jason Frasor are also free agents after the season, the Jays’ ‘pen could easily look considerably different in 2011.
Replacing Gregg's 31 saves wouldn’t be cheap or easy. There are always bargains to be found on the relief market (Matt Capps and J.J. Putz are two recent examples), but quality relievers can command multi-year deals, especially if they close out games. Last year Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney and Jose Valverde put together seasons that aren’t that different from Gregg’s 2010 season. As the table below shows, those three right-handers signed multi-year deals worth $11MM or more.
*Gregg’s 2010 numbers are shown. All other numbers are from 2009.
It seems likely that the Blue Jays will pick up at least the 2011 portion of Gregg’s option. He has pitched well, and unless the Blue Jays plan on gambling, they’ll have trouble replacing Gregg for a net cost of $3.75MM.
If they let him walk, they would likely obtain a compensation pick in next year’s draft, since Gregg projects as a Type B free agent. But the Blue Jays are set to enter 2011 with a young rotation and seem likely to complement their starters with a veteran reliever here and there. I’m guessing that the Blue Jays bring Gregg back, at least for 2011 and maybe for the next two seasons.
Jhonny Peralta’s 2011 Option
Things were much different when the Tigers acquired Jhonny Peralta six weeks ago. Detroit was in contention and Peralta was hitting just .246/.308/.389. Even though his contract includes a 2011 option, the Tigers added him with 2010 in mind. Now, the Tigers' playoff hopes have unraveled, but it has been no fault of Peralta's. His play has improved since joining the Tigers, so they may even keep him.
Peralta said last month that he hopes the Tigers pick up his $7MM option and repeated as much to Steve Kornacki of MLive.com yesterday. But the Tigers are the ones who must decide whether to bring the infielder back or find another shortstop via trade or free agency.
After playing third for the Indians, Peralta is back at shortstop in Detroit. He doesn't distinguish himself with his defense, though (UZR has Peralta as about average from 2008-10). Peralta is hitting .275/.342/.458 in Detroit and he has already hit as many homers for the Tigers as he did in Cleveland (7). It's a major improvement and if he can keep it up and play a respectable shortstop he'd be worth a net cost of $6.75MM.
Miguel Tejada, Orlando Cabrera, Alex Gonzalez, Juan Uribe and Adam Everett signed for $6MM or less last offseason, so it's hard to imagine Peralta finding $7MM as a free agent, despite his strong finish. The Tigers would likely be able to find a serviceable free agent shortstop more cheaply, so if they pick up the option it shows that they believe Peralta can continue hitting this well.
Towers Frontrunner For D’Backs GM Job
11:46am: Towers has yet to meet with Diamondbacks officials and his salary demands may become an obstacle, according to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. The D’Backs, who are still paying former GM Josh Byrnes, may balk at Towers’ asking price. He made nearly $2MM with the Padres and has enough leverage to demand a substantial deal.
The Diamondbacks obtained permission from the Yankees to interview Towers, but the Bronx Bombers did not grant Arizona permission to interview Damon Oppenheimer. Dodgers assistant GMs Logan White and De Jon Watson will likely get interviews, too.
8:41am: Three general managers insisted to MLB Network's Peter Gammons that Kevin Towers is "set" to become the next GM in Arizona, though nothing is official at this point (Twitter link). The D'Backs have not had a permanent GM since firing Josh Byrnes halfway through the season and Towers' name has come up repeatedly since.
Towers currently works in the Yankees front office, but he's better known for his extended tenure as Padres GM. Not only did the Padres win four division titles and one National League championship under Towers, the team is in first place again this year. Manager Bud Black, GM Jed Hoyer and the Padres players deserve credit for this season, but Towers' fingerprints are undeniably on the current edition of the club.
Interim GM Jerry Dipoto, Yankees scouting director Damon Oppenheimer and Dodgers assistant GM Logan White are among the executives who have reportedly been considered for the job.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Rasmus, Manny, Phillies
On this date in 1969, the Mets moved into sole possession of first place for the first time in franchise history. They swept the Expos in a doubleheader to move ahead of the Cubs by a full game in the NL East. The Miracle Mets went on to defeat the Orioles in the Fall Classic for the first World Championship in their history, more than eight years after they played their first ever game.
Let's take a look at some links from around the baseball netweb…
- Yankeeist chatted with Alex Langsam, a Baseball Operations Assistant in the Pirates' front office who reports directly to GM Neal Huntington.
- The Sports Virus interviewed Huston Street about the topic of pitching injuries, an unavoidable evil.
- 1 Blue Jays Way spoke with Luis Rivera, manager of the Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats, a Blue Jays minor league affiliate.
- Play A Hard Nine examines Colby Rasmus' trade value following his fall-out with the Cardinals.
- Meanwhile, Capitol Avenue Club tries to figure out what it would take for the Braves to acquire Rasmus.
- The Hardball Times projects Manny Ramirez's performance for the White Sox.
- Crashburn Alley wonders if the Phillies' offense is just inconsistent, or if their core players are in decline.
- River Ave. Blues says that after searching all winter, the Yankees found their left fielder in Brett Gardner.
- Cubs Pack looks at Chicago's 2011 rotation, which MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith did just yesterday.
- DRays Bay muses about the responsibility of the baseball media.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
The Braves’ 2011 Rotation
Bobby Cox’s teams were generally built around starting pitching and even though Cox won’t be around in 2011, the Braves’ trademark pitching should be. Atlanta lost Kris Medlen to Tommy John surgery, but still has enough starters in the majors to go into 2011 with an above-average rotation.
In fact, every pitcher who started a game for Atlanta this year is under team control for 2011. The Braves can retain Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens, Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami and Mike Minor next year.
Not all of those pitchers will necessarily return, though. The Braves had a similar amount of starting pitching last offseason and they shopped Lowe and Javier Vazquez, before sending the latter to the Yankees. The Braves would probably be open to trading Lowe this winter, but it seems more likely that he stays in Atlanta given that he makes $30MM in 2011-12 and has become a back-of-the-rotation starter. That kind of contract just isn't easy to move.
Kawakami earns just $6.67MM in 2011, so he'd be easier to trade. Judging by how little the Braves have used the right-hander since June, they'd be open to trading him. Kawakami was winless through his first 14 starts and posted a 4.48 ERA before he lost his rotation spot. Since then, he has bounced from the minors back to the majors, but Cox has only used him three times, so he is not at all a fixture on the team's pitching staff.
Clubs like the Indians, Mariners, Orioles, Cardinals, Brewers and Royals could be looking for back-of-the-rotation depth this winter, so they may have interest in Kawakami. It was just a year ago that he posted a 3.86 ERA as a rookie, so some teams would have room for him, even if the Braves don't.
Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens are going nowhere and figure to lead the 2011 rotation. Hudson is a Cy Young candidate this year, and Hanson is thriving in his first full season (though the Braves haven't provided much run support). Jurrjens missed time with a hamstring injury early in the year and his ERA is nearly two runs higher than it was in 2009, but he still has solid peripheral stats. Jurrjens, Hudson and Hanson will give Cox's successor an enviable top three.
Mike Minor didn't take long to get to the major leagues, and the 2009 draft pick looks like he belongs at the highest level. The Braves promoted Minor after 25 dominant minor league starts; he posted a 3.15 ERA with 10.9 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 before joining the big league rotation. The lefty has a 5.33 ERA in the majors so far, but that goes along with 10.3 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9, so it's not like Minor has been overmatched. His role in the 2011 rotation likely depends in part on his new manager's willingness to hand the ball to a 23-year-old every fifth day, but his performance so far suggests he's ready.
Highly-touted prospects like Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado and J.J. Hoover need more minor league seasoning, so the Braves could call on pitchers such as Todd Redmond and Scott Diamond if they need a minor leaguer to replace an injured starter. But the team won't have to rely on too much support from the minors if their big leaguers stay healthy. If all goes well for Atlanta, young arms like Jurrjens, Hanson and Minor will complement Hudson and Lowe to form a strong rotation in 2011.
Regular MLBTR Features
If you're a regular MLBTR reader, you'll be familiar with our chats, our Week In Review posts and Mike Axisa's Baseball Blogs Weigh In feature. Here's some more detail on when you'll see our weekly features and exactly what to expect from them:
- Our new reverse standings page shows you the projected order of the 2011, which picks are protected and which ones are not. It's updated every morning and you can find on the right side of the site under 'MLBTR Features.'
- MLBTR Chats – Come by every Wednesday at 2pm CST to chat about the latest trades, signings and rumblings around the major leagues.
- Baseball Blogs Weigh In – Every Friday morning, Mike Axisa directs you to some of the best writing on baseball blogs around the web. Whether it's opinion, stats or something else entirely, you can connect to the best of the blogosphere once a week on MLBTR. If you want to send Mike a post of yours, reach him at: mike@riveraveblues.com.
- Week In Review – It's amazing how much happens in seven days. Every Sunday night, we summarize the week's biggest stories and link to some of our original content in our Week In Review posts.
A’s To Address Power Shortage
No team has hit fewer home runs than the A’s (89), so GM Billy Beane and the rest of the team’s front office will be interested in adding power bats this offseason, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.
"It's an obvious area to address, and between now and the offseason, we'll have a number of conversations about how best to fill that need," Beane said.
Daric Barton and Jack Cust have combined for tons of walks (152), but few homers (18) from traditionally power-oriented positions, first base and DH. Both players have provided value, but the A’s could trade Barton or non-tender Cust to make room for a more powerful bat. Oakland should be able to spend on power, since the Ben Sheets and Eric Chavez deals are among the contracts coming off the books in 2011.
The A’s, one of just three MLB teams whose home run leader has not reached the 20-homer plateau, can consider free agent first basemen and DHs including Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, Carlos Pena, Manny Ramirez and (if their options aren’t picked up), David Ortiz, Adam LaRoche and Vladimir Guerrero. Many power hitting first basemen and DHs will be available as free agents, but the A's could just as easily pursue pop at a different position.
Odds & Ends: D’Backs, Matsui, Ausmus, Peralta
Links for Thursday night, as the NFL season kicks off in New Orleans….
- The favorites for the Diamondbacks' general manager opening appear to be Kevin Towers and Jerry Dipoto, with Logan White looming as a "dark-horse." Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic breaks down the three candidates.
- Hideki Matsui wants to play somewhere in the majors next year, but he may not be in the Angels' plans, writes MLB.com's Evan Drellich.
- In a chat with Rangers fans, Nolan Ryan says the team has "every intention" of bringing manager Ron Washington back next year (Dallas Morning News link).
- Brad Ausmus tells Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that he'd be open to rejoining the Astros' organization after he retires. Ausmus said earlier this year that he expects this season to be his last.
- Steve Kornacki of MLive.com thinks Jhonny Peralta's 2011 option could be a good investment for the Tigers, given how well the 28-year-old has played lately.
- Fangraphs' Eno Sarris looks at a few contenders for the Mets' 2011 second base job.
Non-Tender Candidate: Matt Diaz
Nearly two weeks ago, when MLBTR's Mike Axisa examined Melky Cabrera's future, about two-thirds of you predicted the Braves would not tender the ex-Yankee a contract this winter. Cabrera isn't the only non-tender candidate in Atlanta's outfield, however; the Braves will also have to decide whether or not they want to retain Matt Diaz.
Like Cabrera, Diaz has suffered a decline in production in 2010 (.237/.284/.433) following a solid 2009 campaign (.313/.390/.488). After recording a career-high 371 plate appearances in 2009, Diaz has seen less action this year, due to a thumb injury, his decline in performance, and the arrivals of Cabrera, Jason Heyward, and Eric Hinske. Even Diaz's ability to mash left-handed pitching has wavered a little, as his .814 OPS vs. southpaws is a sizable step down from his .906 career mark.
Entering his final year of arbitration, Diaz shouldn't be expensive, since he'd earn no more than a modest raise on this year's $2.55MM salary. Still, he'll turn 33 before the 2011 season begins, and he doesn't have the same defensive flexibility that Cabrera does – UZR has ranked him as a below-average defender for the past three seasons. While Diaz could rebound and prove to be an affordable fourth outfielder with some pop for the '11 Braves, the club may decide to look in a different direction. If the Braves were to non-tender Diaz, they'd have the option of putting that $3MM or so in savings toward an impact free agent bat.
Do you expect the Braves to tender Diaz a contract this offseason? Click here to weigh in and click here to view the results.
D’Backs Acquire Matt Gorgen From Rays
The Diamondbacks have acquired Matt Gorgen from the Rays, according to a team release. The move completes the July 31st trade that sent Chad Qualls to Tampa Bay, with Gorgen representing the player to be named later in the deal.
Gorgen, 23, acted as the closer for the Rays' Double-A affiliate in Montgomery this season. In 42 outings, he compiled a 1.65 ERA to go along with 8.6 K/9 and 22 saves.
Prior to the season, Baseball America ranked the right-hander as the 28th-best prospect in Tampa Bay's system, describing him as a "classic hard-charging reliever" who projects as a middle reliever or set-up man in the bigs. Baseball America's scouting report also noted that Gorgen needed to work on improving his pitch command before he'd be ready to take the next step toward the majors – he walked 3.9 batters per nine innings for Montgomery this year.