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Archives for September 2010

Non-Tender Candidate: Ryan Theriot

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Dodgers second baseman Ryan Theriot will be eligible for arbitration for the second time this winter. He will earn $2.6MM this season after losing his arbitration case with the Cubs last offseason, when he filed for $3.4MM. 

Theriot, 30, hit .284/.320/.327 in 412 plate appearances while playing both second base and shortstop for Chicago before being sent to the Dodgers in the Ted Lilly trade at the deadline. In 132 plate appearances as Los Angeles' everyday second baseman, The Riot has hit .307/.380/.377, drawing nearly as many unintentional walks (13) as he did with the Cubs (16) in 280 fewer plate appearances. UZR pegs him as an average defender at second, but well below that level at short.  

It's tough to imagine GM Ned Colletti acquiring a player only to non-tender him a few months later, but he has to at least entertain the option with Theriot. A career .288/.352/.363 hitter, Theriot received a $2.1MM raise last offseason, and a strong finish with the Dodgers could bump his salary up another $2MM this offseason. The free agent market looks to be flooded with light hitting middle infielders that could approximate Theriot's production for a fraction of the cost.

Remember, Colletti doesn't have to non-tender Theriot only to let him walk. He could attempt to re-sign him at a lesser salary, perhaps exchanging a second guaranteed year for a salary discount.

With that in mind, it's time for you to weigh in. Click here to vote whether or not you think Theriot will be non-tendered, and here to see the results.

Poll: Berkman or Hawpe?

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Owners of the two best records in baseball, both the Yankees and Rays aimed to acquire a bat for the season's stretch run as they battle for the AL East crown. The Yanks got their man at the trade deadline, acquiring Lance Berkman from the Astros for a pair of minor leaguers and cash. The Rays waited a little longer, grabbing Brad Hawpe off the scrap heap after the Rockies released him. Both players have slotted in as their team's primary designated hitter against righthanded pitching.

Since the trade, Berkman has hit .239/.314/.348 in 51 plate appearances while spending some time on the disabled list with an ankle injury. Hawpe has come to the plate just four times with Tampa since being recalled on September 1st, and has struck out all four times. Clearly, both players are capable of much better than what they've shown with their new teams so far, which brings us to today's poll question.

Who will perform better down the stretch: Berkman or Hawpe?

Click here to participate in the poll, and here to see the results.

Odds & Ends: Hill, Sampson, Butler, Lewis

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On this day in 1977, Sadaharu Oh hit his 756th career home run, passing Hank Aaron for the (known) all-time professional record.  It's just the 'known' record since we don't know for sure how many homers Josh Gibson hit in the Negro Leagues.  Oh finished his Japanese career with a whopping 868 long balls. 

Some news items…

  • Andrew Stoeten of the Drunk Jays Fans blog and The Toronto Sun's Bob Elliott both recently outlined the Blue Jays' upcoming decision about Aaron Hill's 2012-14 club option years.  If the Jays decline to exercise all three options at once by next Opening Day, Hill can no longer be retained by the team on his $10MM club option for 2014.  It's very likely that Toronto will pass on the three-years-at-once option and then look at Hill's $8MM options for 2012 and 2013 after next season.  In short, Hill's lackluster play this year has cost him $10MM thus far.
  • Chris Sampson has accepted his minor league assignment from the Astros and will report to Triple-A Round Rock, tweets Alyson Footer of MLB.com.  Sampson could've opted for free agency, but will instead finish the season in Houston's system and pursue free agency in the offseason.
  • If Eric Hosmer continues to develop, ESPN.com's Jason A. Churchill suggests that Kansas City might trade Billy Butler to avoid paying him a significant contract.  Butler is a first-time arbitration candidate this offseason and could make 10 times his current $470K salary in 2011.
  • Cleveland manager Manny Acta says that Jensen Lewis' future with the Tribe may depend on how he looks in relief outings this September, writes Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  Lewis will reach arbitration for the first time this winter and is out of options, so he's a possible non-tender candidate.
  • In a reader chat, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News gave his opinion on such Rangers hot stove topics as Cliff Lee's future with the club and whom the Rangers might target in free agency this winter.
  • Brandon Boggs has cleared waivers and been assigned to Texas' Triple-A affiliate, reports MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez.  Boggs was designated for assignment on Tuesday.
  • Eric Chavez "is not ready to announce [his] retirement," tweets MLB.com's Jane Lee, but would consider a post-playing career of coaching or broadcasting (also from Twitter).
  • Blogger El Lefty Malo looks at how the Giants have gotten better at acquiring "band-aid" veterans.
  • Diamondbacks president Derrick Hall tells FOXSportsArizona.com's Jack Magruder that money will not be a factor in hiring the team's new general manager, but admits "I'd be lying if I said it wasn't an issue."
  • Alex Rodriguez's recent split with agent Scott Boras may have been influenced by advisers from the entertainment business and Rodriguez's "infatuation with Hollywood stardom," reports ESPNNewYork.com's Wallace Matthews.  Somewhere, Ari Gold is yelling at Lloyd to place a call on his behalf…

Oakland Signs Jeremy Hermida

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Jeremy Hermida has signed with the Athletics' Triple-A affiliate in Sacramento, according to the Pacific Coast League website's transactions page.

Originally taken by Florida with the 11th overall pick in the 2002 amateur draft, Hermida has never been able to translate his high ceiling (Baseball America ranked him as the fourth-best prospect in the game before the 2006 season) into consistent major league success.  He has a career .755 OPS in 2100 major league plate appearances with the Marlins and Red Sox, who just released Hermida on Tuesday.  Hermida is still just 26 years old, so this is a no-risk signing from the A's in case Hermida finally puts it together.

 

The Cardinals’ 2011 Rotation

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With a 4-13 record over their last 17 games, an eight-game deficit to make up in the NL Central, and a weekend series against an in-form Cincinnati club, the Cardinals could be looking ahead to next year by as soon as Monday.  Let's get a head start on the process by examining what the St. Louis starting rotation may look like by Opening Day 2011.

Leading the way for the Cards are Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia.  Carpenter is signed through 2011 and St. Louis has a club option worth $15MM in 2012 that they're certain to exercise if Carpenter remains as healthy and effective as he has been over the last two seasons.  It's possible the Cards could explore an extension with Carpenter this winter, if they're not already too busy trying to extend Albert Pujols.

Wainwright seems well on his way to a top-five finish (at least) in the NL Cy Young voting, which will trigger a clause in his contract that guarantees the 2012 and 2013 club options St. Louis currently holds on the right-hander.  Wainwright is set to earn $21MM over those two seasons, plus an extra $1MM should he actually win the Cy either this season or in 2011.  The Cards were a virtual lock to pick up those team options anyway given how well Wainwright has pitched in his career.

If Wainwright is a bargain, then Garcia is a steal.  The 24-year-old southpaw has a 2.33 ERA and a 2.03 K/BB in 25 starts this season and he carries a 20 1/3 scoreless inning streak into tonight's start against the Reds.  Garcia doesn't reach arbitration until after the 2011 season, so he will remain a very affordable option for St. Louis unless the club tries to cover his arb years with a long-term deal.  It's still just Garcia's first full major league year, so if the Redbirds do approach him with a long-term contract, it will be a step down from the Romero/Lester/Gallardo deals.

When Kyle Lohse signed a four-year, $41MM extension with St. Louis in September 2008, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes prophetically asked, "What are the odds this deal looks solid even halfway through?"  Now that we're about halfway through the deal, it's indeed looking like a miss for the Cards.  Lohse has battled forearm and groin injuries over the last two seasons and has a 5.55 ERA in 35 games (34 of them starts) over that stretch.  Lohse will be pencilled into a spot in the 2011 rotation, since it would be hard for the Cardinals to eat the remaining $23.75MM owed to the right-hander and even harder to trade him.  (Plus, Lohse has a no-trade clause.)

With four spots accounted for, the fifth rotation job is wide-open.  The Cards' strategy over the last few winters has been to sign veterans (Rich Hill, Brad Penny, Matt Clement, Lohse in March 2008) to one-year or minor league contracts to see if pitching coach Dave Duncan can get them back into top form, so the team could pursue that option again.  St. Louis might have gotten a head start on this strategy with the acquisition of Jake Westbrook at the trade deadline.  Westbrook has pitched well (4.03 ERA, 5.67 K/BB ratio) in his first six National League starts, so he will come at a higher price than those other past winter signings should the Cardinals want to bring him back.

Another midseason pick-up, Jeff Suppan, hasn't performed as well and would only be brought back as roster depth.  Penny could be another low-cost veteran option from the current roster.  After signing a one-year, $7.5MM deal with the Cards last December, Penny had a solid first nine starts but hasn't pitched since May due to a back injury.  The lingering nature of what was originally thought to be a minor back injury will definitely scare some teams away from the 32-year-old, so the Cardinals (who have been monitoring Penny's status all year) could bring the right-hander back if they're satisifed that he's healthy.

P.J. Walters, Blake Hawksworth and Adam Ottavino have started games for St. Louis this season, though all would need superb spring training performances to get into the running for the fifth starter's job.   Baseball America projected Walters as a future middle reliever in the preseason, Hawksworth has pitched mostly out of the bullpen for St. Louis and Ottavino may be a question mark for the spring since he needs labrum surgery.

Shelby Miller, the top prospect in the St. Louis system, has only increased his stock in his first full season of pro ball.  Miller, the 19th overall pick in the 2009 draft, has a 3.62 ERA and a 12.1 K/9 rate in 24 starts for Single-A Quad Cities.  Baseball America had Miller rated as the 50th-best prospect in baseball in the preseason, and their midseason prospect report again slotted him in the #26-50 range.  Miller doesn't even turn 20 until October 10, so the Cards will probably hold off his major league debut until 2012.

Other farm system options include southpaw Evan MacLane and right-handers Lance Lynn and Brandon Dickson, all of whom have had solid seasons in the hitter-friendly Triple-A Pacific Coast League.  All could factor in as spot starters or candidates for the No. 5 position.  Keep an eye on right-hander Scott Gorgen, a fourth-round pick from the 2008 draft who has a 2.99 ERA in his 49-game minor league career thus far, including a 1.31 ERA in 10 games (eight starts) at Double-A this season.

Marlins, Nolasco Negotiations “Going Nowhere”

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We've heard that the Marlins were looking to sign Dan Uggla and Ricky Nolasco to long-term contracts, but just as the Uggla talks haven't yielded much progress, the club's negotiations with Nolasco are similarly stalled.  Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel reports that "a significant gulf exists between the two sides" as they try to keep Nolasco in Miami.

Nolasco has avoided arbitration the last two seasons (most recently signing a one-year, $3.8MM pact with Florida last December) but still has two arbitration years left thanks to his Super Two status.  Rodriguez reports that since the Marlins have a team policy that requires any multi-year deal to buy out at least one free agent year, it's logical to assume that the Fish are looking at a three- or four-year contract for the right-hander.

Nolasco hasn't quite become the top-flight starter that many expected him to become after his breakout 2008 season, but aside from a 4.81 ERA in 2009-10, his peripherals over the last two seasons have been solid — a 4.44 K/BB ratio and an even 9.00 K/9 rate.  One possible wrinkle in the negotiations could be Nolasco's pending surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee.  The Fish may want to wait to see how Nolasco recovers from the surgery before committing a big chunk of money.  As Rodriguez points out, there's nothing stopping Florida from settling a contract with the pitcher for next season and then resuming the long-term negotiations later.

Jayson Werth Looking For A New Agent

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Jayson Werth will no longer be represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council, tweets ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick.  Werth hasn't decided on new representation yet, and the process could take a while due to the "expected agent feeding frenzy" (Twitter link) that should surround the pending free agent.

It's no surprise that Werth would want to be completely confident in his representation as he prepares to sign the biggest contract of his professional career this winter.  Werth and Carl Crawford are the top free agent outfielders on the market and both should command annual salaries of $15MM or more.  All of the usual big-market suspects will be in on the bidding, though given how Philadelphia was shopping Werth earlier this summer, it would be surprising to see Werth return to the Phillies next season. 

Rangers To Sign Mark Prior

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The Rangers agreed to sign Mark Prior to a minor league deal, according to Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram (on Twitter). A Rangers official told Wilson that the Rangers signed Prior with the long-term in mind, not necessarily 2010. The right-hander doesn't turn 30 until next week, so he's still relatively young.

Prior, who had signed with the Orange County Flyers of the Independent Golden League, auditioned for teams earlier in the summer, but no one signed him. The Padres signed Prior last year, though he never pitched for San Diego at the major league level.

The Cubs selected Prior second overall in the 2001 draft and he pitched to a 2.43 ERA in 200-plus innings as a 22-year-old two years later. Soon afterwards, shoulder injuries derailed Prior's career. 

The Mariners’ 2011 Rotation

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Felix Hernandez may be the best pitcher in baseball, but you won't mistake any other Mariners starters for aces. Next year, some combination of current Seattle starters, prospects and free agent additions will likely follow Hernandez in the rotation. Here are the specifics.

We can safely assume that Jason Vargas and Doug Fister have earned tentative spots in next year's rotation. Vargas (3.55 ERA) and Fister (3.85 ERA) have been pleasant surprises in Seattle this year and will likely be back in the 2011 rotation.

Luke French and David Pauley have each started a handful of games for the M's this year, although it would be a surprise to see the Mariners hand either pitcher a rotation spot uncontested. French, who turns 25 later in the month, has a 4.13 ERA, but his strikeout rate (3.8 K/9), FIP (4.65) and xFIP (5.52) suggest his ERA is likely to rise. Pauley has a 51% ground ball rate, but he doesn't strike anyone out either (4.9 K/9). In fact, many Mariners starters have low strikeout rates; French, Pauley, Vargas and Fister all strike out 5.6 batters per nine or less.

The Mariners could turn to minor league right-hander Michael Pineda if they're looking to add another power arm to the rotation. The 21-year-old entered 2010 as the seventh-best prospect in the organization, according to Baseball America, and he has since had a tremendous season. Pineda posted a 3.36 ERA with 9.9 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in the upper minors and the Mariners will presumably give him every opportunity to win a rotation job next spring.

Mauricio Robles and Blake Beavan have pitched well since joining the Mariners in recent mid-summer trades (the Jarrod Washburn and Cliff Lee deals). Robles, 21, has struck out more than a batter per inning in the upper minors (9.9 K/9), but has major command issues (4.7 BB/9). Baseball America suggested before the season that he could be a back-of-the-rotation starter, but Robles' future could just as easily be in the 'pen. Beavan, a 21-year-old right-hander, has flashed excellent command in the upper minors (1.1 BB/9), but like so many current Mariners, doesn't strike many opponents out (5.4 K/9). 

Ryan Rowland-Smith will go to arbitration for the first time this winter, but with a 6.96 ERA and more walks than strikeouts, Rowland-Smith won't have much of an arbitration case if the M's tender him a contract. Seattle could bring the left-hander back (probably for less than $1MM) and add him to the bullpen.

The Mariners will presumably decline the options for Ian Snell ($6.75MM option, likely non-tender) and Erik Bedard ($8MM mutual option, $250K buyout). It wouldn't be a surprise to see the team sign a free agent starter, though. Hernandez is a proven innings eater, but Vargas, Fister, Pineda, French and Pauley are not sure things, so the team may well be interested in signing a veteran starter to a short-term deal this offseason.

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