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Free Agent Market For Right Fielders

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The Tigers, Angels, Phillies, Nationals, Pirates, Cardinals, and Giants may be in the market for a right fielder this winter.  Let's examine the free agent options.

The Big Name

Though his agent Scott Boras keeps talking about center field, Jayson Werth has mainly played right in the Majors.  Werth, 31, is the marquee right-handed bat on the free agent market and plays strong defense as well.  In the opinion of CSNPhilly.com's Jim Salisbury, "it’s clear that the starting price will be something in the range of the seven-year, $120 million deal that Boras client Matt Holliday received from St. Louis last winter."  Werth will also cost a draft pick if a team other than the Phillies signs him.  The Tigers, Angels, and Nationals could be contenders for his services, and despite full outfields most expect the Red Sox and Yankees to check in.

Solid Regulars

Magglio Ordonez and Brad Hawpe might be solid regulars next year, but there are concerns.  Ordonez, 37 in January, is represented by Boras and was limited to 84 games this year due to ankle surgery.  Will he take one year and a sizeable pay cut despite a solid offensive performance?  Hawpe, 31, slipped to .245/.338/.419 and was cut by the Rockies in August.  If UZR is any indication, he's better suited for a DH role.

Jason Kubel was pressed into right field duty this year; like Hawpe, he's better off at DH.  Kubel's off-year still looks pretty good compared to other free agents, but the Twins may pick up his option at a $4.9MM net price.  Xavier Nady played right field fairly regularly in 2008, but may not have the arm for an everyday gig after a second Tommy John procedure in July of '09.

Part-Time Players

Jose Guillen, Andruw Jones, Gabe Kapler, Randy Winn, Austin Kearns, Willie Bloomquist, and Jeremy Hermida all tallied 100+ innings in right field this year.  Jones and Kearns flashed decent OBPs, while Jones and Guillen showed some pop.

Non-Tender Candidates

The non-tender candidates don't add much to the discussion.  Jeff Francoeur is the main name, but he hasn't hit much since 2007.  He'll have to take a part-time role or minor league deal, as will Gabe Gross, Jason Repko, Ryan Church, Delwyn Young, Brett Carroll, and Travis Buck.

Summary

For clubs that don't have $100MM+ to spend on Werth, Ordonez and Hawpe are decent offensive-minded alternatives.

Boras Defends Werth

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At yesterday's press conference, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. was asked how the team's offense could be good or better without Jayson Werth.  Part of Amaro's response:

Jayson had a good year. It wasn't an extraordinary year. He had kind of a tough time with men in scoring position, so he didn't have as productive a year as he had in the past. But I think if he's not with us, there are players that we can acquire or we have in our own organization that can help us be as consistent.

It was odd to see a GM point out a player's shortcoming, although Amaro was correct in that Werth hit .186/.353/.314 in 190 plate appearances with runners in scoring position.  Of course, the sample is small and Werth was just fine with runners in scoring position in previous seasons.  Werth described the 2010 RISP numbers as an anomaly, talking to CSNPhilly.com's Jim Salisbury.

Werth's new agent Scott Boras sidestepped the runners in scoring position angle, but still defended his client in a discussion with Salisbury.  Boras explained, "Compared to '09, he was up 30 points in batting average, 15 in on-base percentage, 30 in slugging, 40 in OPS. He had fewer home runs, but he had 20 more doubles."  Valid points.  Boras also said Werth's defense was "better than it has ever been," a point that is more difficult to prove.  The agent once again praised Werth's "center field acumen," though he's never played there regularly in the Majors.

As he typically does, Boras added that the Phillies have the money to retain Werth.

De La Rosa Will Test Free Agent Market

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Lefty Jorge de la Rosa will test the free agent market, reports Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post.  Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd still plans to make an aggressive multiyear offer, saying, "We continue to have a strong desire to bring him back. The conversations have been great."

In Renck's estimation, De La Rosa is seeking a four or five-year contract.  The southpaw, 30 in April, is one of the better free agent starters available despite never reaching 200 innings and a career walk rate of 4.5 per nine.  De La Rosa's case was strengthened when the Dodgers re-signed Ted Lilly at three years and $33MM earlier this month.  De La Rosa is represented by TWC Sports.

Our reverse-engineered Elias rankings suggest De La Rosa barely made the Type A cutoff.  He'll likely turn down an arbitration offer from the Rockies on November 30th, allowing Colorado to snag two draft picks if another team signs him.  Only one of those picks would come from the signing team.  Note that at 74.092 points, De La Rosa is the sixth-lowest rated of the 29 Type A free agents.  If a team signs De La Rosa and another higher-rated Type A who also turned down arbitration, one of the Rockies' picks could be pushed to the second or third round of the draft.  Renck expects the Rockies to pursue another free agent starter if De La Rosa departs.

Renck adds that the Rockies' decision on catcher Miguel Olivo's $2.5MM mutual option is due three days after the World Series.  He says they're leaning against exercising their side due to Carney Lansford's success working with Chris Iannetta.

Alderson Favored For Mets GM Job

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Sandy Alderson is "the overwhelming favorite" to become the next Mets GM, writes Mike Puma of the New York Post.  A source with knowledge of the hiring process told Puma Alderson is "close to a slam dunk" for the position.  His source adds that Alderson has the votes of Jeff and Fred Wilpon and only needs the approval of team president Saul Katz.  Puma speculates that Alderson's hiring could be announced on Friday, a World Series travel day.

Andy Martino of the New York Daily News agrees that Alderson is the favorite and also speculates on a Friday announcement.  Martino says Rangers GM Jon Daniels is no longer being considered for the Mets job.

Alderson, 63 next month, served as GM of the Athletics from 1983 through the 1997.  He later worked in the commissioner's office and for the Padres.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Brian Fuentes

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Brian Fuentes was in the right place at the right time in the 2008-09 offseason, coming off a 30 save season when several clubs were willing to spend big on closers.  He fell 20 games finished short of having his 2011 option vest, so the 35-year-old lefty is headed for free agency.  Let's assess his position.

The Pros

  • Fuentes dominated lefties this year: 11.57 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, no home runs in 14 innings.  Also in the small sample department: Fuentes was untouchable in 9.6 innings with the Twins.
  • Assuming Mariano Rivera doesn't field offers from multiple teams, Fuentes can make a case as the second-best free agent closer unless Bobby Jenks is non-tendered.
  • He's a Type B free agent who won't be offered arbitration anyway, so there's no draft pick cost.  Last time around, the Rockies snagged the Angels' #32 pick and chose Tim Wheeler while also taking Rex Brothers in the supplemental round.

The Cons

  • Fuentes is 35 and dealt with back pain this year.
  • He's prone to free passes, with a 3.8 BB/9 on the season.
  • He allowed just 5.8 hits per nine innings and a .227 BABIP, figures that he's highly unlikely to replicate.
  • Fuentes had the highest flyball rate in baseball (58.5%) among those with 40 innings pitched.
  • He's been ordinary against righties the past two years, according to his FanGraphs splits page.
  • Fuentes' price tag will come with the typical closer inflation.

The Verdict

Fuentes may come into the offseason seeking two years and a closer gig, but the supply of available stoppers outweighs the vacancies.  He may have to settle for one year and $4MM unless Beverly Hills Sports Council can create a bidding war.

Non-Tender Candidate: Fred Lewis

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Next season in Toronto, the Blue Jays will likely roll out an outfield of Jose Bautista, Travis Snider, and Vernon Wells.  Meanwhile, Fred Lewis says that he considers himself an everyday position player.  The veteran will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter and is due for a raise.

In 480 plate appearances this season, Lewis hit .262/.332/.414 with eight homers.  While the soon-to-be 30-year-old jumped out to a hot start with the Jays, he received less playing time late in the season. 

Even if Lewis does have a change of heart and agrees to stay on in a reserve role, Toronto could still go in a different (and cheaper) direction by using DeWayne Wise as their fourth outfielder.  While Wise likely won't bring the same offensive production as Lewis, his defense (career 8.4 UZR/150) tops what Lewis has been able to do in the outfield (career -2.6 UZR/150)

With all of this in mind, do you believe that the Blue Jays will non-tender Lewis this winter?  Click here to vote and here to view the results.

Giants Won’t Increase Payroll Substantially

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Even though the Giants' postseason run could increase revenues next season, the club will not make a major increase to their payroll, writes Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.

"We're always going to want to be somewhat creative," team president and chief operating officer Larry Baer said. "We're not going to have a doubling effect, or a double-digit massive increase. That's not who we are. The good news is, who we are is not going down in payroll either."

While the organization won't spend tons of money this winter, Baer says that ownership will do what it can to keep the team in tact.  Roughly $20MM will be coming off of the books this offseason but much of that will go to raises for Tim Lincecum, Mark DeRosa, Matt Cain, and Brian Wilson.  Meanwhile, Cody Ross, Jonathan Sanchez, and Andres Torres will all be arbitration-eligible.

The Giants won't be backing up a Brinks truck for a major free agent in the coming months but they have been able to find success on the cheap, as our own Steve Adams pointed out over the weekend.

Odds & Ends: Duncan, Mets, Dodgers, Baylor

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Four years ago today, the Cubs signed Starlin Castro as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic.  He became the team's starting shortstop in May at the age of 20, debuting with a .300/.347/.408 performance.  Links for Monday:

Mets, Brewers GM/Managerial Rumors

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Earlier today, the Blue Jays officially tabbed John Farrell as their next skipper.  The Brewers are still looking for their next manager and the Mets are looking to name their new GM.  Here's the latest, with more to come throughout the evening:

Mets

The Mets, as expected, interviewed former Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes for a second time today, tweets David Lennon of Newsday.  Sandy Alderson, reported by many to be the frontrunner for the position, is scheduled to come in for his second interview tomorrow.  Both Lennon and Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com believe that a decision could come as soon as Friday.

Brewers

Dodgers Triple-A manager Tim Wallach is no longer in the running for the Brewers job, a "very good source" tells Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.  It would seem that there are four finalists for the job, two of which are White Sox bench coach Joey Cora and former Arizona skipper Bob Melvin.  Haudricourt suspects that Halos bench coach Ron Roenicke is one of the finalists as well.  Melvin still appears to be the favorite as he is well-liked by the Brewers' decision makers.

Roenicke, when contacted by MLB.com's Adam McCalvy, refused to say whether he is among the four mystery finalists for the Brewers job.  Updated at 10:00pm.

 

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