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Archives for April 2011

Reaction To Ryan Braun’s Extension

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The Brewers already had Ryan Braun under contract through 2015, but they doubled their commitment to their star outfielder today by signing him to a five-year, $105MM extension that will keep Braun in Milwaukee through the 2020 season.  The length and timing of the extension has already generated a lot of reaction from the baseball media.  To wit…

  • The extension is "a mistake," writes Dan Szymborski for ESPN.com (Insider subscription required), since Braun will be on the decline by the time his extension begins in his age 31 season.
  • Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com thinks the club "could have waited a year or two to extend" Braun and feels the extension is risky.  However, Knobler noted that mid-market teams like Milwaukee and Colorado (who signed Troy Tulowitzki to a similarly lengthy extension in November) face a risk in letting star players even approach free agency, citing Albert Pujols and the Cardinals as an example.  Knobler has a point — had St. Louis signed Pujols to a five-year, $105MM extension covering 2012-2017 after, say, the 2006 season, the Cards would look like geniuses right now.
  • Also in reference to the Tulowitzki contract, Fangraphs' Joe Pawlikowski notes that the Brewers, like the Rockies did in November, are betting on significant contract inflation in baseball over the next decade.
  • The overwhelming consensus from almost every writer is that Braun's extension solidifies the fact that the Brewers won't try to re-sign Prince Fielder this winter.  Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin, however, says that Braun's deal won't have much effect on what the Brewers may or may not do with Fielder, reports MLB.com's Adam McCalvy.

Chicago Notes: Byrd, Fuld, Zambrano, Peavy

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It was on this day in 1959 that Cubs right-hander Glen Hobbie, then 23, took a perfect game into the seventh inning against the Cardinals.  The great Stan Musial broke up Hobbie's bid for immortality with a two-out double in the seventh — the only hit Hobbie would allow to Chicago's arch-rivals in a complete game gem.

Let's look at some items from both Hobbie's old team and their South Side brethren…

  • The Cubs aren't looking to deal Marlon Byrd, reports Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald.  Miles also looks at some of the Cubs' top prospects.
  • With Sam Fuld off to a hot start in Tampa Bay, some fans are wondering why the Cubbies couldn't have held onto the young outfielder rather than include him in the Matt Garza trade package.  As part of a mailbag, MLB.com's Carrie Muskat explains that Fuld was out of options and, had he remained in Chicago, he wouldn't have received much playing time in the crowded Cubs outfield.
  • Carlos Zambrano tells CSNChicago.com's David Kaplan that a proposed worldwide amateur draft would favor American-born prospects over Latin American prospects.  "I think a worldwide draft would be bad for the kids from the Dominican Republic and Venezuela because we are late developers. We don't have little league or a system of organized baseball to help us learn the game," Zambrano said. "When I was a kid we played maybe once a week, that's it. If kids from my country were drafted and then didn't develop quickly enough they wouldn't be around long."
  • Also from Kaplan, up to 65% (roughly $24MM) of Jake Peavy's remaining salary could be covered by an insurance policy.  This could give the White Sox some financial room to acquire another pitcher.  Barry Axelrod, Peavy's agent, tells Kaplan that it is much more difficult for teams to get insurance on multiyear pitching contracts today than it was for San Diego in 2009.  Peavy has yet to pitch in 2011 due to his recovery from offseason shoulder surgery, and is tentatively scheduled to return to the Sox rotation by mid-May.
  • Despite his team's seven-game losing streak, White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen isn't worried about being on the hot seat, reports MLB.com's Scott Merkin.

Jays Accept Brad Emaus Back From Mets

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The Blue Jays have accepted infielder Brad Emaus back from the Mets, tweets ESPNNewYork's Adam Rubin.  New York designated Emaus, a Rule 5 pick from Toronto, for assignment on Tuesday and since Emaus cleared waivers, the Mets had to offer him back to the Jays for $25K or work out a trade to keep him.  Now that the Jays have taken Emaus back, he has been assigned to Triple-A Las Vegas.

Emaus won the second base job out of Spring Training for the Mets, but was DFA'ed after posting a .424 OPS in 42 plate appearances.  Emaus, 25, was an 11th-round pick of the Jays in the 2007 amateur draft and he has a .276/.364/.426 line in four minor league seasons.

Twins Notes: Ramos, Capps, Mauer

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Some news from the Twins, as they wrap up a four-game series in Baltimore tonight…

  • The Twins may eventually regret dealing Wilson Ramos to the Nationals for Matt Capps last summer, but Dave Sheinin of the Washington Post writes that Minnesota appreciates the depth that Capps has provided at closer with Joe Nathan struggling.
  • Should the Twins consider moving Joe Mauer to another position?  MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince argues no, since Mauer's full value comes from the fact that he can deliver MVP-caliber numbers from the premium position of catcher.  Jim Souhan of the Minneapolis Star Tribune argues yes, since the rigors of catching every day may already be taking a toll on Mauer's hitting.  "Would you rather have Mauer serving as a pretty-good-hitting catcher who needs plenty of days off and occasional trips to the disabled list, or a great-hitting corner position player who plays 160 games a year?  I'll take the latter," Souhan says.

Mets Notes: Bay, Elvin Ramirez, Loan

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Jason Bay makes his season debut for the Mets tonight, and hopefully he can inject some offense into an offense that ranks 12th in the NL with 4.00 runs per game.  The latest links involving the team:

  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post talks about the Mets' need for Bay to add some life to the club, with the team's clubhouse already giving out a mathematically-eliminated vibe.
  • Elvin Ramirez, the 23-year-old reliever taken by the Nationals from the Mets in the December Rule 5 draft, received a cortisone injection in his shoulder last week according to this tweet from Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post.  ESPN's Adam Rubin attempts to decipher the situation, tweeting that Ramirez "must spend 90 non-September says active on 25-man roster to become Nats property."
  • Commissioner Bud Selig said the $25MM the Mets borrowed from MLB is due back before the end of the season, and he's confident the team will make the payment, according to this tweet from Brian Costa of The Wall Street Journal.

Brewers Extend Ryan Braun Through 2020

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The Brewers extended left fielder Ryan Braun through the 2020 season, the team announced.  The extension is for five years and $105MM, tweets CAA Sports, while MLB.com's Adam McCalvy has the year-by-year breakdown.  The contract includes a mutual option for 2021 worth up to $20MM with a $4MM buyout.  McCalvy notes that the deal includes a $10MM signing bonus, a no-trade provision, and some deferred salary.  The deferrals were key to the deal, CAA agent Nez Balelo told McCalvy.

Braun was already under contract through 2015 on a precedent-setting deal.  As I noted on Monday, the Rockies' Troy Tulowitzki is the only other player under contract through the 2020 season.  Braun and Tulo were drafted fifth and seventh overall in 2005, respectively, and both tacked monster extensions on top of their old team-friendly contracts in 2011.  Like Tulo's deal, Braun's contract actually takes a dip in salary toward the end.  My biggest concern with Tulo's deal was the difficulty in projecting injury risk rather than performance decline.  Braun seems a safer bet than Tulowitzki to remain healthy, though Braun signed his contract even further away from free agency and does not play a premium position.

Braun's new contract represents the largest contract in Brewers history, as did his previous $45MM deal.  His agency notes the $21MM average annual value on the new extension is the second-highest ever for an outfielder, ranking behind only Manny Ramirez's $22.5MM AAV on his last Dodgers deal.  Among all position players, Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira, Joe Mauer, Ryan Howard, and Alex Rodriguez also have higher AAVs.

Braun will turn 37 shortly after his contract ends, so he may be a Brewer for his entire career, notes Balelo.  Braun's career batting line so far: .308/.367/.557 with 133 home runs in 2627 plate appearances.  This is likely his final season playing alongside the Brewers' other superstar slugger, Prince Fielder, who will be eligible for free agency.

Brewers Outright George Kottaras

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Aside from signing Ryan Braun through 2020, the Brewers announced a series of transactions today.  Catcher George Kottaras was outrighted to Triple-A Nashville, leaving the team's 40-man roster at 38.  Also, Mike McClendon was optioned, LaTroy Hawkins was reinstated, and Zack Greinke's rehab assignment will continue Sunday for the Nashville Sounds.

Potential Offense Targets For The Phillies

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One common question in yesterday's chat was which bats the Phillies could acquire this summer.  The Phillies rank fifth in the NL with 4.88 runs per game so far, and trading season is two months away, so it's not time to sound the alarm yet.  But here are a few potential targets anyway.

There's still no timetable for Chase Utley to return, so the Phillies could consider adding an offensive-minded second baseman.  Availability of these players will depend on the standings.  If the Phillies seek all-around offense they could try for Arizona's Kelly Johnson or San Francisco's Mark DeRosa.  Aaron Hill and Jose Lopez can provide power, while Marco Scutaro, Jeff Keppinger, and Omar Infante are more OBP-focused.

Rather than bring in a $5.85MM second baseman like Johnson, the Phillies seem more likely to add a corner outfielder.  Domonic Brown could help out in right field.  He could start a rehab assignment soon after breaking his hand in March.  The Phillies should have a good idea of whether Brown can be an offensive asset by mid-July. 

It's tough to assess the available outfielders in April, before teams reveal their true selves.  Carlos Beltran, Jason Kubel, Luke Scott, Juan Pierre, Carlos Quentin, Hunter Pence, Carlos Lee, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, Garrett Jones, Ryan Ludwick, Brad Hawpe, Josh Willingham, David DeJesus, Juan Rivera, Jack Cust, Jeff Francoeur, Xavier Nady, Angel Pagan, Kosuke Fukudome, and Marlon Byrd are players I can picture being dealt under certain circumstances.  Some are more likely than others – I'm not banking on Kemp being dealt.  If the Phillies aim for switch-hitters or right-handed bats, this list is cut to Beltran, Quentin, Pence, Lee, Kemp, Ludwick, Willingham, Rivera, Francoeur, Nady, Pagan, and Byrd.

There are also financial concerns.  Incumbent left fielder Raul Ibanez earns $11.5MM this year, and his is not a contract anyone is taking off the Phillies' hands.  Some of the above-named players aren't even clear upgrades over Ibanez.  We're unsure how much payroll flexibility the Phillies have, and most of the players I named are earning more than $5MM this year.  They could unload a different contract, with Joe Blanton the most popular choice.  But Blanton is only tradeable if he's pitching reasonably well, and in that case moving him downgrades the Phillies' rotation and might set them back as much as an outfield acquisition would set them forward.

It wouldn't be hard for the Phillies to add a complementary piece like Keppinger or Francoeur.  Otherwise, the best chance at an improved offense will probably come from a healthy Utley and production from Brown, Ibanez, or Jimmy Rollins.

How Much Will John Danks Earn In 2012?

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If they don't sign extensions, starters John Danks, Matt Garza, Jeremy Guthrie, and Jered Weaver will enter fairly uncharted waters in the upcoming offseason as their agents attempt to establish their 2012 salaries.  As I mentioned earlier this month, top starters are unwilling to go year-to-year through arbitration these days.  We rarely see a healthy, ace-type pitcher make it to his third arbitration year, but Danks, Garza, Guthrie, and Weaver are primed to do just that.

Using Danks as a case study, I asked five arbitration experts what they think he'll earn in 2012.  Danks is at an even $6MM this year, and we're assuming a normal platform season from him in 2011.

The ceiling for Danks appears to be around $12MM.  Carlos Zambrano, who received a $5.9MM raise to $12.4MM for the 2007 season, is the comparable Danks' agent at CAA Sports (Jeff Berry) might aim for.  However, none of the five experts I spoke to thought Danks' career or platform year numbers will top Zambrano's.  Everyone instead predicted a salary in the $10-11MM range for Danks.  Zambrano had comparables of his own, by the way, as Chan Ho Park and Kevin Millwood received $6MM raises early in the decade.

There is an interesting possibility, depending on which pitcher in Danks' class settles first.  One arbitration consultant noted, "The best evidence in any arbitration hearing is the current class, and if these guys work together they could really redefine this entire market. I could see Danks getting $10.5-11MM right now. But would not be shocked if this group of pitchers changed that."  He gave an example of the first-time starting pitcher market shifting during the 2010-11 offseason, as Armando Galarraga became the new $2.3MM type and Kyle Kendrick and Kevin Slowey were able to do better.

Chicago pitchers Danks and Garza are particularly comparable, so that'll be an interesting parallel to follow throughout the season.  The 2012 starting pitching arbitration class is loaded with intrigue.  Clayton Kershaw and David Price will duke it out trying to top Dontrelle Willis' first-time record of $4.35MM (it appears both will succeed).  As a third-year arbitration eligible starter Weaver could post a Cy Young season and fly past $13MM.  Tim Lincecum, who is already at $13MM, is headed for an arbitration record-breaking salary.  Cole Hamels is in line for a huge bump as well, entering his fourth arbitration year coming off a $9.5MM salary.  If like many MLBTR readers you're fascinated by this stuff, January and February should be exciting months.

2012 Contract Issues: Washington Nationals

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The Nationals are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series.  Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:

Eligible For Free Agency (11)

Contract Options (0)

Arbitration Eligible (7)

A few others, such as Craig Stammen and Roger Bernadina, could reach the requisite amount of service time if they're called up.  Zimmermann's shortened 2010 and '11 seasons will limit his career numbers and his arbitration payday, but he could still reach $2MM.  Lannan and Gorzelanny could be in the $4MM range.  Overall I could see the team's arbitration eligibles getting about $16MM total, but that's just a rough April estimate.

2012 Payroll Obligation

The Nationals' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $44.596MM.  My arbitration estimate puts them around $61MM, $7MM short of this year's payroll.  Still, I expect the team to have the flexibility to add starting pitching, relief help, and outfielders as needed during the 2011-12 offseason.

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