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Archives for August 2011

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Upton, Snider

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Adrian Gonzalez won the AL Player of the Week Award for last week after homering five times in seven days. Here's the latest from a division that includes a number of prominent MVP candidates, including Gonzalez… 

  • Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com argues that Red Sox manager Terry Francona deserves more credit. The skipper has never won AL Manager of the Year, but Edes says he deserves it this year for the work he has done leading the Red Sox to an AL-best 82-51 record.
  • B.J. Upton told Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times that he's happy the Rays chose to hold onto him instead of trading him. The outfielder, who will be arbitration eligible for the final time this offseason, says he'd "love" to be back in Tampa Bay in 2012.
  • Travis Snider acknowledged to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca that his position in the Blue Jays organization has changed in recent years. The Jays demoted the former first rounder twice this season and he has lost ground on the depth chart to Eric Thames and others. Snider's resting his right wrist now and looking forward to the 2012 campaign.

AL West Notes: Athletics, Cruz, Angels

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Ichiro Suzuki's streak of ten consecutive 200-hit seasons will likely end this year, since he's 49 hits away from 200. But as the Mariners point out, Ichiro has picked up at least 49 hits in a month six times in his career. Here are some more notes from the AL West…

  • The A's will need to make a 40-man roster move tomorrow, when they add Neil Wagner to their active roster, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link). They'll have room on the 25-man roster once Jerry Blevins clears waivers tomorrow.
  • The Rangers expect Nelson Cruz to miss three weeks with a strained left hamstring, according to Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram (on Twitter). The Rangers could consider Lance Berkman of the Cardinals, but GM Jon Daniels indicated that he expects to find help from within the organization.
  • Wilson notes that Leonys Martin will take Cruz's roster spot for now and that a Berkman deal seems unlikely (Twitter links). 
  • As Kevin Baxter of the LA Times explains, the Angels have been playing better partly because of Vernon Wells' increased productivity. The offseason acquisition started off slowly and his season line is still just .216/.249/.393, but he has four multi-hit games in his last six contests.

Ricky Romero’s Extension One Year Later

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When the Blue Jays committed $30.1MM to Ricky Romero last August, he had just 52 MLB starts to his name. But the Toronto front office was less concerned about his relative inexperience than the reality that pitchers’ throwing arms are often fragile.

Ricky Romero

“I think the risks are pretty obvious with health,” GM Alex Anthopoulos said last August 14th. “You’re always concerned with respect to health.”

In the year and two weeks since Romero signed his five-year extension, he has logged 238 innings, including 181 this year. When the left-hander looks back at the first year of the deal, he evaluates himself on his ability to stay on the field.

“Oh yeah, I think it’s health,” he said, crediting Toronto’s training staff. “That’s the big thing for anyone – to stay healthy. That’s the biggest concern – if you’re going to be able to last the whole season and not break down.”

If Romero (pictured) looked at the stat sheet, he’d find himself in the top ten in the American League in ERA (4th, 2.78), but he doesn’t evaluate himself on ERA, wins, xFIP or any statistic other than innings pitched.

“No, not at all,” he said. “For me I take pride in just going out there and giving my team a chance to win and racking up innings. If I do that and have quality outings? I’m good with that. I feel like I’ve done that this year.”

The numbers confirm that Romero has been effective. He has a 3.13 ERA with 7.4 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 238 innings since finalizing the deal, which set a record for pitchers with less than two full years of MLB service. At the time of the extension, the Jays were willing to enter unchartered territory with the 2005 first rounder since they looked forward to seeing him develop into their ace.

“We see a guy like Ricky continuing to improve,” Anthopoulos said last year. “We think he’s going to be an innings eater, we think he’s going to be a horse. We think he’s going to continue to evolve.”

Jon Lester and Yovani Gallardo, whose extensions figured prominently into the Blue Jays’ deal with Romero, have both taken steps forward since signing their respective contracts. Like the Blue Jays, the Red Sox and Brewers are getting what they paid for – and then some. Despite the similarities between his career and theirs, Romero doesn’t watch Lester and Gallardo any more attentively than he watches others.

“Whenever they’re on TV or there are highlights of them, yeah I’ll watch,” Romero said. “But I like watching baseball highlights period. It doesn’t matter who it is. I don’t pay any extra attention to them. They’re both great pitchers and having good years too.”

Romero’s extension won’t expire before 2015 (the Blue Jays have a club option for 2016), so they have reason to look well beyond 2011. Though there are no guarantees in baseball, especially for pitchers, Romero says his arm feels as good as ever.

“I’m feeling great,” he said. “I think as the season goes on I continue to get stronger and that’s what you’re looking for.”

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

Pirates Notes: Maholm, Lee, Ludwick, Jones

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Despite the Pirates' midseason flirtation with the pennant race, they're going to finish below .500 again, barring a late-season surge. Here's the latest on the 62-71 Pirates from Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review…

  • The Pirates still haven’t approached Paul Maholm about a possible extension, according to Biertempfel. The club has a $9.75MM option for Maholm in 2012 and they expect to keep him around, despite the shoulder strain that currently has him on the disabled list. "It's a no-brainer to want to try to keep him here," GM Neal Huntington told Biertempfel.
  • Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick will get lots of playing time when they return from the disabled list, since it could affect the Pirates' ability to attract players to Pittsburgh. "How you treat players is a recruiting piece," Huntington said.
  • The Pirates haven’t given up on Garrett Jones, who is hitting well in August and now has a .249/.331/.452 season line with 15 homers.
  • Right-hander Chris Leroux would like to move from the bullpen to the rotation, but that seems unlikely, according to Biertempfel. Leroux, who has been excellent in 13 innings out of the ‘pen this year, is out of options.

Quick Hits: Moyer, Beckett, Weaver

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Four years ago today, the Dodgers claimed Esteban Loaiza off waivers from the Athletics, taking on over $8MM and getting very little from the pitcher in return.  I'm sure Billy Beane and Ned Colletti still chuckle about the transaction.  Today's links:

  • Jamie Moyer, 49 in November, will continue his rehab from Tommy John surgery at the Phillies' Spring Training home in Clearwater, Florida.  MLB.com's Todd Zolecki explains that Moyer remains a free agent, but his former team honored his request to use their facilities and expertise.  We all look forward to seeing Moyer's 81 mile per hour heater in the Majors once again, perhaps next year.
  • Josh Beckett is a family man now, the Red Sox righty explained to WEEI's Rob Bradford.  Beckett anticipates a series of one-year deals once his current contract expires after the 2014 season, and plans to disappear without fanfare when it's time to retire.
  • Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times has contract details for Jered Weaver's new deal with the Angels.  The contract has a full no-trade clause, a $1MM signing bonus, and salaries of $14MM for 2012, $16MM each for '13 and '14, $18MM for '15, and $20MM for '16.
  • Baseball America's Jim Callis looks at the 2005 draft for each of the 30 teams, ranking the Red Sox first and the Cubs last.

B.J. Upton Claimed; No Deal

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MONDAY: The deadline to trade Upton has passed, notes Topkin, so he's staying with the Rays.

SATURDAY: B.J. Upton has been claimed off trade waivers by an unknown team, reports Marc Topkin of The St. Petersburg Times. The Rays have until Monday to work out a trade with the claiming team or pull their center fielder back, and Topkin says a deal seems unlikely as of right now.

Upton, who just turned 27, was a popular name before the trade deadline as teams looked for alternatives to the pricier Hunter Pence and Carlos Beltran. The Braves, Indians, Phillies, Giants, Pirates, and Nationals all had interest in July, though the first five teams ended up with other outfielders. The Nats may still have interest, though again we don't know which team actually made the claim.

Scheduled to become a free agent after 2012, Upton is being paid $4.825MM this season and will be arbitration-eligible again this winter. He's hitting just .224/.304/.390 with 17 homers in 495 plate appearances this year, but as always a big chunk of his value comes from his legs (26 steals) and defense (fourth best UZR among all center fielders since 2009).

Rangers Could Consider Berkman

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Lance Berkman is the Rangers' prime target if they look outside the organization for help in the wake of Nelson Cruz's hamstring injury, writes Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News.  However, GM Jon Daniels advised caution until the team sees Cruz's MRI, and added, "More than likely, any moves we make will be from inside the organization." 

So keep in mind that for the Rangers to get serious on Berkman or any other trade or claim candidate, the prognosis on Cruz would have to be bad and Daniels would have to change his mind.  That said, Berkman would be a fantastic addition for the Rangers, as he ranks fourth in the NL with a .405 OBP and third with a .570 slugging percentage.

Berkman has reportedly cleared waivers, the reason for which I have no idea.  His salary is relatively modest, with $1.32MM remaining to date.  He projects as a low Type A free agent in the NL, and an arbitration offer seems probable, so the Rangers would have to give up something of value to get him.  Big Puma is, of course, a native Texan who spent the vast majority of his career with the Astros.

Heyman On Reds, Swisher, Astros

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SI's Jon Heyman leads his latest column with his MVP picks: Curtis Granderson and Ryan Braun.  His hot stove info:

  • Heyman's sources suggest that "there has been some difference of opinion over playing time between Reds GM Walt Jocketty and manager Dusty Baker."   It was Jocketty, however, who chose not to trade veteran catcher Ramon Hernandez.
  • Heyman wonders if the next Orioles GM will have ties to manager Buck Showalter, suggesting former Rangers GM John Hart as one possibility.
  • The Yankees "will surely pick up" Nick Swisher's club option for 2012.  The 30-year-old right fielder rebounded from a rough first two months and now owns a .267/.384/.459 line in 534 plate appearances. 
  • Astros owner Drayton McLane "is said by other owners to be nervous about the sale and also the state of the money that's in escrow at a time the stock market is tanking," as MLB continues to review the candidacy of expected new owner Jim Crane.  Something has clearly changed in the last few weeks, wrote Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle yesterday.

Extension Candidate: Adam Jones

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Back in May, Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail talked to Amber Theoharis of MASNsports.com about the possibility of locking up center fielder Adam Jones:

"We actually, in Adam's case, had a brief conversation with Casey Close of CAA at the last winter meetings and talked about, you know, we'd be interested in talking about it in the following parameters.  But I think they felt like Adam was still on the ascent and wanted him to play and further establish himself, and they may very well be right."

When the subject of extending Jones comes up again, perhaps in early 2012, plenty will have changed.  Jones is still with CAA, but is represented by Nez Balelo with Casey Close gone.  There's a good chance a new GM will be in town for the Orioles.  And most importantly, Jones will likely have the best offensive season of his career under his belt, as the agency apparently predicted.

Jones

Jones, 26, is hitting .293/.328/.482 with 22 home runs in 537 plate appearances for the Orioles this year.  The batting average would be a career best.  He's already set career highs in home runs and RBIs, while tying his top stolen base mark.  Jones is not a perfect player – he doesn't draw many walks, and based on UZR his defense has been below average over his last 3,400 innings. 

Those two flaws are generally not big factors in arbitration cases, so they're unlikely to affect Jones' earnings in 2012 and '13.  Currently we're estimating a $3.35MM raise for Jones next year, bringing him to $6.6MM.  Barring a performance decline or major injury, Jones projects to top $10MM for '13.

Jones is on track to earn around $17MM for 2012-13, but if he signs an extension in the offseason the team's discount is likely to reduce those salaries significantly.  I could see something like $5MM for '12 and $8MM for '13, and then it's a question of how many free agent years each side is willing to include in a long-term deal.  For Corey Hart, that number was two, at $9.5MM apiece.  Justin Upton signed with much less service time but also gave up two, while Jay Bruce gave up two plus a club option.  None of them are great comparables – Jones is only two years away from free agency and plays center field.

My gut feel is that buying a couple of Jones' free agent years could cost $14MM each, so the team could offer a bit more than $40MM over four years.  The question is how eager Jones is for his first major payday.  Signing through 2015 would still allow him to reach free agency at age 30, at which point a contract approaching $100MM would be possible if is offense stayed the same and a couple of bidders graded his defense with metrics other than UZR.  On the other hand, the ultimate free agent score could be only two years away, especially if he has a monster 2013.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Arbitration Eligibles: New York Yankees

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We've looked at the Orioles and Red Sox so far; now let's look at the Yankees players who will be arbitration eligible after the season.

I expect all six players to be tendered a contract.  Robertson, Logan, and Chamberlain should all come in under $2MM.  Gardner looks to be in the $2.4-3.3MM range for his first time through; a stolen base title would put him toward the higher end of that range.  Hughes will get a mild raise, perhaps to $3.4MM or so.  We have Martin around $5.2MM, though his is a little tricky to determine because he's coming from a free agent salary.

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