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Owners, Players Union Discussing Possible Type A Solutions

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It might stink to be Kelly Johnson this offseason.  Sure, he'll be signing for millions of dollars, but it's possible that if he wants to explore the open market as a Type A free agent, he'll be saddled with the cost of a draft pick.  For example, having to give their #23 overall pick to the Blue Jays next year might deter the Cardinals from making a serious offer to Johnson.  Like so many non-star free agents who are offered arbitration, Johnson could be in a bad place because of his Type A status.

As part of the ongoing collective bargaining agreement discussions, the owners and players union "seem focused on two possible solutions for the Type A quandary," writes ESPN's Buster Olney.

The first idea: instead of the new team giving a potential first-round draft pick to the old one, the old team would simply receive a supplemental pick sandwiched between the first and second rounds.  In a way, this would be like making all players Type Bs.  For example, instead of the Red Sox receiving the Tigers' #19 pick in the 2011 draft for Detroit signing Victor Martinez, maybe they would have received a pick in the 30s, not from the Tigers.  This solution seems reasonable.

A second idea would deter teams from offering arbitration to non-star free agents in the first place.  Olney equates this to the NFL's system, where a star free agent must be paid 120% of his previous salary or the average salary of the top five highest-paid players at his position, whichever is higher, or else be granted unrestricted free agency.  That could mean $8.5MM or more for someone like Kelly Johnson, which could deter the Jays from offering arbitration.  The current free agent arbitration system works this way to a lesser extent.  Johnson will get a raise if he accepts, despite a down year.  This is the reason a Type A free agent like Francisco Rodriguez has no chance of getting an arbitration offer. 

Olney says one unresolved question is whether Type A adjustments would be made for the 2012 season or for '13.  I think some teams would cry foul if the changes were made for '12.  At any rate, Olney is optimistic for a labor agreement within the next two weeks.

Blue Jays Considering Top Closers

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The Blue Jays are aggressively seeking an experienced closer through free agency or trade, reports ESPN's Buster Olney.  Olney says the Jays have discussed free agents Heath Bell, Jonathan Papelbon, and Joe Nathan, as well as trade target Andrew Bailey of the Athletics.

Padres GM Josh Byrnes said last month he's likely to offer arbitration to Bell, a Type A free agent.  Bell prefers to stay in San Diego, and he said in August he'll accept arbitration if offered.  Should he change his mind and decline, he'd be an unlikely fit for Toronto for at least two reasons: the closer prefers the West Coast, and the Jays would have to give the Padres their 17th overall pick in next year's draft.  The cost to sign Bell would be reduced to the Jays' second-rounder if they are to commit the #17 pick to another team by signing a higher-ranked Type A.  Only Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, C.J. Wilson, David Ortiz, and Ryan Madson are ranked higher than Bell.  For a closer look at Bell's performance this year, check out Alex  Steers McCrum's article at CloserNews.

Signing Papelbon would hurt the division rival Red Sox in the short-term, though the Sox would get that #17 pick as a valuable consolation prize.  Nathan is a more reasonable free agent target for Toronto, as they can offer a chance to close and contend and he won't cost a draft pick to sign.  Bailey would require a bigger commitment — multiple well-regarded prospects — as the A's control him through 2015.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Wei-Yin Chen

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Southpaw Wei-Yin Chen belongs somewhere in our top 50 free agents list, perhaps in the 20s.  Chen will likely be coming to MLB from Japan's Chunichi Dragons as a 26-year-old free agent.  The Taiwanese lefty was a foreign player in Nippon Professional Baseball, and his agents at Octagon negotiated free agency into his contract.

Chen's arm may be fresher than many hurlers coming over from Japan, given his age and the fact that his innings were limited by Tommy John surgery several years ago.  On the other hand, he's not lighting up radar guns as he once did, and his strikeout rate dipped to 5.1 per nine innings in 164 2/3 frames this year.  Chen did manage a 2.68 ERA, keeping his walks and home runs allowed down.

Chen is expected to come to MLB if he's offered a rotation job.  I don't expect the price to be exorbitant — perhaps a four-year deal worth less than $20MM would get it done.  Interest should be strong in a market light on reasonably-priced starting pitchers with upside.

NPB Rumors: Aoki, Nakajima, Chen, Kuroda, Igawa

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Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker has scoured Japanese newspapers for the latest rumors.

  • Yakult center fielder Norichika Aoki has asked to be posted.  Aoki hit .292/.358/.360 in 643 plate appearances in 2011.  Newman wrote last year that Aoki was "the best pure hitter Japan has produced since Ichiro," but that was before his numbers dropped off significantly in 2011.  Despite great range, Newman thought last year that Aoki's weak arm could limit him to left field in MLB.
  • Seibu shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima will again ask to be posted this offseason.  Nakajima was denied that request last winter, though the Orioles and Mariners were reportedly among the interested teams.  The 29-year-old hit .297/.354/.433 with 16 home runs in 633 plate appearances this year.  Newman considered Aoki Japan's second-best hitter in his August 2010 article.
  • Chunichi southpaw Wei-Yin Chen was 50/50 on moving to MLB as of October 26th.  Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports dubbed Chen a "likely free agent" in a report this morning.  The 26-year-old posted a 2.68 ERA, 5.1 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, and 0.49 HR/9 in 164 2/3 innings this year.  He's represented by Alan Nero of Octagon.
  • The Hiroshima Carp have an offer out to Hiroki Kuroda.  Kuroda said he's happy to have received the offer from his former team.  His plans for 2012 remain unknown though.
  • Multiple Japanese teams have interest in Kei Igawa, who reached free agency after his five-year deal with the Yankees expired.  

Rosenthal On Oswalt, Giants, Kuroda, Chen

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports dishes the latest on several free agents…

  • The Nationals "plan a major push" for free agent righty Roy Oswalt, and Rosenthal considers the Rangers another potential player.  Nats GM Mike Rizzo explained his interest earlier this month.  Oswalt's agent Bob Garber told Jon Paul Morosi, "With Roy, home and family are very important to him.  It would be a bonus to be close to home, but nothing is off limits, in terms of either coast or the Midwest.  Ideally, yes, it would be great to be close to home, but it's not going to stop us, if it's the right situation. His goal is to get the ring. He doesn't have any jewelry right now. He's made a lot of money. At this point, it's about the ring. That's what he wants to take with him."  Oswalt lives in Mississippi.
  • Rosenthal doesn't see the Giants having the money to afford Carlos Beltran or Jose Reyes this winter.  This math was apparent in September, when GM Brian Sabean told reporters payroll would remain about the same, around $125MM.  The Giants currently have $81.683MM in contractual commitments for 2012, and if they tender the most likely nine of their 13 arbitration eligible players that's another estimated $38.7MM for a total of $120.383MM before minimum salary players are considered.  A few million for 2012 could be freed up by trading Jeff Keppinger and signing Tim Lincecum to a multiyear deal.  
  • Rosenthal feels that Hiroki Kuroda "might be more open to playing elsewhere, having gone through the experience of considering another team."  I ranked Kuroda 15th on my top 50 free agents list.
  • Wei-Yin Chen of the Chunichi Dragons is a likely free agent, writes Rosenthal.  Agent Alan Nero told Rosenthal Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada are drawing significant interest.  Last week, Chen said he was 50/50 on moving to MLB (link in Japanese, thanks to Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker for the translation).  Chen controls the process due to a free agency clause in his contract, and he's only 26.  Newman tells me Chen topped out around 91 miles per hour this year, short of the 95 he reached a few years ago, but he's still interesting enough to fit in the middle of our top 50 list.  I ranked Wada 34th.

Marlins To Meet With Mark Buehrle

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The Marlins, who already obtained manager Ozzie Guillen from the White Sox this offseason, are now pursuing the most dependable starter the skipper had in Chicago, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The Marlins will meet with free agent left-hander Mark Buehrle tomorrow.

Rosenthal reported earlier today that adding left-handed starting pitching is the Marlins' top offseason priority. C.J. Wilson, another free agent left-hander, concerns the Marlins because of his postseason control issues, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney.

The Marlins aren't shying away from other top free agents. They have Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols on their radar and, according to Rosenthal, will meet with Jose Reyes Wednesday and Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes Thursday. Pujols, Fielder, Reyes and Wilson are Type A free agents, while Buehrle qualifies as a Type B. He wouldn't cost the Marlins a 2012 draft pick and neither would Cespedes.

Quick Hits: Maddux, Maine, Jackson, Darvish

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The Orioles officially announced that they’ll name Dan Duquette their executive VP of baseball operations tomorrow. While that front office change was expected, the Twins’ decision to replace Bill Smith with Terry Ryan was most certainly not. Here are some notes from around MLB on yet another busy day for front office movement… 

West Notes: Hill, Bell, Bourjos, Dodgers

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We've checked in on the Giants, who made a major trade today. Here are some notes from the other teams in baseball's western divisions…

  • The Diamondbacks have an offer out to Aaron Hill, according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (on Twitter). The club’s proposal comes with a deadline and team officials expect Hill to wait as long as possible before deciding whether to accept the deal.
  • Free agent reliever Heath Bell told Jim Bowden of Sirius XM Radio that he’d prefer to sign with the Padres, Angels or Dodgers (Twitter link). Bell says he’d also like to play for the Red Sox or Phillies.
  • Dave Cameron of FanGraphs argues that the Angels should keep Peter Bourjos instead of trading him. Viewing Bourjos and Mike Trout as players who are getting in each other’s way would be a mistake, Cameron explains.
  • Dodgers owner Frank McCourt may ask the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for permission to sell the team's TV rights, according to Bill Shaikin of the LA Times. This would violate his sale agreement with MLB, however.
  • The Rangers aren't likely to bring free agent Brandon Webb back and may explore potential trades involving Yorvit Torrealba, according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan.
  • A's GM Billy Beane and Moneyball author Michael Lewis discussed the inception of the best-selling book with Todd Watson of InternetEvolution.com.

Phillies Making Strong Push For Ryan Madson

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9:26pm: The Phillies have also had talks with Jonathan Papelbon and seem determined to sign him or Madson, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter).

8:18pm: Talks are "advancing, but not complete," a source told ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick (Twitter links). Agent Scott Boras told Crasnick that the sides are still exchanging proposals.

7:23pm: The Phillies are making a "strong push" to re-sign Ryan Madson, according to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark (on Twitter). Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports also hears that the Phillies are working hard to complete a deal for Madson. However, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. hasn't ruled other free agents out.

"It's no secret I need a closer," Amaro told Rosenthal. "I am talking to everyone."

Madson, 31, became Philadelphia's full-time closer in 2011, converting 32 saves. He posted a 2.37 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 48.8% ground ball rate in 60 2/3 innings of relief. He's a Type A free agent, but the Phillies won't have to surrender a draft pick to sign their own player. However, they would obtain two picks if the right-hander signs elsewhere after turning down arbitration from Philadelphia.

ESPN.com's Buster Olney reported earlier today that the Blue Jays are taking a "very aggressive" approach in their search for a closer (Twitter link). Though it's not clear if they're targeting Madson, Olney won't be surprised if Toronto ends up with one of the top free agent relievers.

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