Draft Prep: Meet The College Righties
In a draft considered by experts to be deep in pitching, six college right-handers possess the talent to rank within the top 20 overall for ESPN's Keith Law, Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein, and Baseball America.
Gerrit Cole, UCLA
Law has Cole going first overall to the Pirates in his most recent mock draft, while Baseball America has him falling to the Royals at #5. Getting Cole is the "dream scenario" for the Royals at #5, according to Law. Cole, who was drafted out of high school by the Yankees in '08, boasts a mid-90s fastball, power slider, and above-average changeup. Experts agree he has the ceiling of a number one starter, and Law says Cole "looks like he could pitch in the big leagues tomorrow if he'd sign soon enough to play." He has, however, struggled with his command at times and hasn't delivered results on par with his abilities. Cole is advised by the Boras Corporation. He has been stingy on providing interviews, but MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith spoke to him in March.
Trevor Bauer, UCLA
Law believes the Diamondbacks could consider Bauer at #3 if Danny Hultzen is gone, but projects him going to the Nationals at #6. Law does not expect Bauer to make it past the Indians at #8. BA went with the Nats in their mock draft. Bauer has been worked heavily and has unorthodox workouts and mechanics. He's said by BA to pattern himself after Tim Lincecum. Bauer comes with lots of strikeouts, good velocity, a plus-plus curveball, an above-average changeup, and a few other pitches too. MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo spoke to him a few days ago.
Taylor Jungmann, Texas
Law projects the Brewers taking Jungmann at #12, with the Mets an option at #13. BA guesses the Astros will take him at #11. Law says the 6'6" Jungmann sits at 91-93 with a hammer curveball and strong command. A few mild concerns have been raised about his delivery, and Goldstein questions whether he has "star-level upside."
Matt Barnes, Connecticut
Law notes that the Padres have interest at #10, which is BA's choice in their mock draft. Barnes draws praise for his fastball and curveball, while questions remain about his command, mechanics, and secondary stuff.
Alex Meyer, Kentucky
Law names the Athletics at #18, the Red Sox at #19, and the Nationals at #23 as possibilities for Meyer, while BA takes the Angels at #17. The 6'9" righty owns a mid-90s fastball and plus-plus slider, but Goldstein finds his performance inconsistent and all gurus say his command is lacking. There is number one starter upside here, says Law. Meyer, who turned down $2MM from the Red Sox as a 20th round pick out of high school three years ago, is advised by the Boras Corporation.
Sonny Gray, Vanderbilt
Gray could be Arizona's choice at their unprotected #7 spot, says Law, while the Padres could be a fit at #10. He's mentioned the Cubs at #9 previously. BA went with the Brewers at #15. Gray is 5'11", but he pitches at 91-94 with what Law describes as a "knockout breaking ball." The idea has been floated that Gray could end up a late-inning reliever. Talking to Ben Nicholson-Smith in February, Gray said he prefers to start but considers himself versatile and enjoyed his time in the bullpen.
Quick Hits: Hanrahan, Jackson, Blue Jays
Links for Wednesday, as Seattle's Michael Pineda prepares to continue his Rookie of the Year bid against the Orioles…
- Pirates closer Joel Hanrahan noted his daily readership of MLBTR in an interview at the MLB Fan Cave yesterday. Said Hanrahan, "[MLBTR] provides updates for all the transactions in one quick place. I go on there on my phone all the time, because you find out about any deals and transactions. I’m definitely an active reader of that site, but other than that, I don’t really read too many other baseball websites." We're honored to have Joel among the many players who read MLBTR; give him a follow on Twitter here.
- Tip of the cap to White Sox righty Edwin Jackson, who explained to Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times that he'll accept bullpen duty if the team decides to remove him from the rotation. The Scott Boras client has a team-first attitude despite his impending free agency.
- Blue Jays righty Dustin McGowan has endured two shoulder surgeries since he last appeared in the Majors in July of '08, but Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports his rehab went well in May and the Jays are now considering using him as a starter again. In other good news for the Jays, top prospect Brett Lawrie tweeted late last night that his hand is only bruised after being hit by a pitch. Prior to that pitch, Lawrie had been slated to make his big league debut Friday.
- Jack Zduriencik's smaller acquisitions are looking good for the Mariners, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. For a look back at our Mariners offseason in review, click here.
If The Cubs Become Sellers
At 23-30, the Cubs are 8.5 games back in the NL Central and eight back in the wild card. Their chance of making the playoffs is 1.1%, according to Baseball Prospectus. The team's front office has to start thinking about a potentially huge offseason and how they can improve and free up even more cash for 2012. Which Cubs might be available this summer?
- Alfonso Soriano, currently on the DL with a strained left quad, always has to be presumed available. The 35-year-old left fielder is showing good pop, but with a walk rate down to 3.2% he's a one-trick pony. He earns $18MM per year through 2014, a contract I'd probably deem immovable if the Blue Jays hadn't managed to send Vernon Wells packing. Soriano has a full no-trade clause.
- Also close to immovable is righty Carlos Zambrano, who earns about $18MM this year and next. He's pitched OK, with a reduced strikeout rate but the best control of his career. Pitching is always coveted at the trade deadline, but the Cubs would need Zambrano's consent to make a deal.
- Third baseman Aramis Ramirez has been healthy this season but his power has been missing. He earns $14.6MM this year and his $16MM option for 2012 vests upon a trade. He also has full no-trade rights. A trade could be worked out if Ramirez displays power over the next six weeks or so, consents to a trade, and waives the '12 option. Stranger things have happened.
- Outfielder Kosuke Fukudome has trade protection as well. At .432 he has the fourth-best OBP in the National League, though he has only six extra-base hits. He could help a lot of teams, but is known for his fast starts and has a troublesome $13.5MM salary.
- Starter Ryan Dempster saw his ERA top out at 9.58 on April 28th. He then turned in a 3.08 mark in May. Dempster has a $14MM player option for 2012 with no buyout. This is a tricky one – he could get more total dollars and years on the open market, but he has a strong relationship with the Cubs and he wouldn't find a $14MM salary. Dempster must approve any trade.
- First baseman Carlos Pena had an awful April, but smacked seven home runs in May. He's earning $10MM on a one-year deal and could be one of the better bats available.
- Southpaw John Grabow is earning $4.8MM this year. He hasn't been anything special against lefties and hasn't been used as a specialist. He'd be hard to move.
- Reliever Kerry Wood has been decent this year and would be a popular trade deadline target. However, he took a big discount to come back to Chicago at $1.5MM, so he'll probably only be dealt if that's his preference.
- Extra outfielder Reed Johnson is having a strong year in a limited sample, but he's on the DL due to back spasms. If healthy, the Cubs figure to be open to moving him.
- The Cubs have a lot of overpaid, somewhat useful players. Guys like Dempster and Pena could generate a lot of interest, but in general GM Jim Hendry would have to assume salary to have another active trade deadline. The Cubs were willing to eat $4.2MM in salary to move Derrek Lee, Ted Lilly, and Ryan Theriot last year. Would Hendry resist another fire sale, knowing that those moves could be his last as Cubs GM? Would the Cubs install someone else to conduct the proceedings, as the Diamondbacks did last year?
- We've covered the Padres, Pirates, Twins, and Astros as potential sellers as well.
Poll: Which Surprise Teams Will Stay In Contention?
Memorial Day is behind us and the Indians and Diamondbacks lead their respective divisions. The standings will change between the beginning of June and the beginning of October, of course, but they're now the product of 50-plus games.
Though the Indians are 32-20, they've lost five of seven games and can't be quite sure what Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner can offer the rest of the way. Meanwhile, the 30-24 D'Backs could face stiff competition if and when the Rockies and Giants recover from injuries to Jorge de la Rosa and Buster Posey, respectively. Both Cleveland and Arizona are talented, but that doesn't mean 2011 is their year.
Which team(s) will contend all season?
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Cleveland Indians 43% (3,913)
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Neither team 28% (2,575)
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Arizona Diamondbacks 15% (1,345)
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Both teams 14% (1,316)
Total votes: 9,149
Cardinals Have Inquired On Heath Bell
Fernando Salas has converted all ten of his save opportunities in 2011, so the Cardinals may not need another closer this summer. But in case Salas, Ryan Franklin, Eduardo Sanchez, Mitchell Boggs and the rest of the St. Louis bullpen don't offer enough late-inning stability, the Cardinals are doing their homework. They're among the teams that have checked in on Padres closer Heath Bell, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (on Twitter).
Bell, 33, earns $7.5MM this year and hits free agency after the season. He converted his fourth save in as many days tonight and now has 14 on the season to go along with a 1.96 ERA, 7.0 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. The Rangers have also checked in on Bell, whose trade value I explored last week.
Quick Hits: Mauer, Dodgers, Suzuki, Soria
Evan Longoria is back in the cleanup spot and his eighth-inning homer led the Rays to a win against the Rangers today. Here are some links from around the Major Leagues…
- Twins manager Ron Gardenhire told Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com that he doesn't plan to move Joe Mauer from behind the plate when he returns from the disabled list. "He signed an eight-year deal to catch in the big leagues for the Minnesota Twins," Gardenhire said. "So we're trying to get him back as a catcher. If it doesn't work out when he comes back, then we're going to have to figure somewhere else."
- Tom Verducci of SI.com crunches some numbers and says the Twins are done. The Cubs and White Sox aren't much better off if you ask Verducci.
- A's GM Billy Beane told catcher Kurt Suzuki that he wants him to avoid collisions at the plate, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney. Across the bay, Giants catcher Buster Posey will miss the rest of the season with a leg injury after a home plate collision.
- Dodgers manager Don Mattingly told AJ Cassavell of MLB.com that there's no mistake he hasn't learned from in his first year as L.A.'s skipper.
- Royals manager Ned Yost told Dick Kaegel and Adam Holt of MLB.com that the Royals haven't had serious discussions about converting recently-demoted closer Joakim Soria to the rotation.
NL Central Notes: Lyles, Reyes, Doumit
Here's the latest from around the NL Central, with an emphasis Jordan Lyles. The Astros' right-hander debuted against the Cubs tonight and pitched seven-plus innings, allowing one earned run on five hits with four strikeouts and no walks….
- Astros manager Brad Mills pointed out that Lyles could be with Houston for two starts or 20 years, according to MLB.com's Brian McTaggart. Lyles' debut may be the most anticipated in Astros history since Hunter Pence's 2007 debut, according to McTaggart.
- Lyles' promotion represents a victory for assistant GM and amateur scouting director Bobby Heck, according to Stephen Goff of the Houston Astros Examiner.
- I examined the service time implications for Lyles earlier tonight.
- Reds GM Walt Jocketty told John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer that he hasn’t had talks with the Mets. That means speculation linking the Reds to Jose Reyes is unfounded at this point (though the Reds could have had internal discussions about the shortstop).
- Pirates catcher Ryan Doumit has fractured his left ankle and will miss at least a month, according to Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (on Twitter). Doumit, a potential trade target, would have a few weeks to re-establish his value before the trade deadline if he makes a speedy return. But his $5.1MM salary could clear waivers, which would enable the Pirates to deal him in August.
Draft Notes: Guerrieri, Pirates, Bauer
Here's the latest on the MLB draft, which is less than a week away…
- No prospect has seen his draft stock rise more than high school right-hander Taylor Guerrieri, according to Nathan Rode of Baseball America. Guerrieri is the best high school arm an American League scout has ever seen and the odds that he goes to college seem slimmer than ever.
- Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus points out that this year's draft is hard to predict from the first overall selection on. Goldstein has the sense that the Pirates will select Virginia left-hander Danny Hultzen, but he can see them taking UCLA righty Gerrit Cole or Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon.
- Check out our Draft Prospect Q&A series for conversations with all three players and others.
- You may have heard about Trevor Bauer's unorthodox workout program, but the UCLA right-hander would prefer to be known for his fastball, according to MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo. Mayo offers a must-read take on Bauer, who led the country with 189 strikeouts this season.
- Hultzen, Rendon and Bauer are all finalists for 2011 USA Golden Spikes Award, Cash Kruth writes at MLB.com.
Mets Could Deal Wright Instead Of Reyes
8:00pm: A source with knowledge of the situation told Andy Martino of the New York Daily News that the Mets have had no serious internal discussions about trading Wright (Twitter links). Though the Mets haven't ruled out signing Reyes, they won't be interested in making a $130-140MM commitment, according to Martino.
7:14pm: There has been plenty of speculation about a potential Jose Reyes trade this summer, but a source told Adam Rubin of ESPN New York that the Mets could choose to trade David Wright instead. That doesn't mean it'll be easy, despite what we can assume would be tremendous interest.
"It will be a very ticklish situation because of what David has meant to the team for so long, but that's not a concern of Sandy [Alderson]," said the source. "There will be some capital there to spend on Reyes if they choose to go that direction. Now, he can't obviously get monster money. If Reyes wants monster money, no, the Mets won't keep him."
Rubin says that the biggest obstacle in a Wright trade would be convincing COO Jeff Wilpon to sign off on a deal given his strong regard for the third baseman, both on and off the field. The source added:
"If they wanted to move Wright, there's no better time to move him than now, because there still will be teams out there thinking, 'Well, David Wright was sabotaged by the stadium. He's still a good player. He'd be a good fit where he doesn't have to be the guy,' which he's been here for so long. So they can get some return on Wright. Plus the fact that he has two years left on his deal, so you're not talking about long-term financial damage for any team that does pick him up."
The source also told Rubin that the most likely scenario has both Wright and Reyes ending the season with the Amazins, then they could try to re-sign Reyes to a deal of five years or less. Their hope, as unrealistic as it may be, is three years. If no deal can be reached, they would simply take the two drafts picks. Rubin notes that Reyes has reasons to stay in New York, namely the easy flights to the Dominican Republic and the fact that his kids are in school there.
We've looked at both Wright and Reyes at trade candidates recently, and also broke down what Fred Wilpon's recent comments meant for both.
The Implications Of Jordan Lyles’ Debut
In less than an hour, Jordan Lyles will make his much-anticipated MLB debut. Ten starts into the Triple-A season, the right-hander has a 3.20 ERA with 6.3 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9, impressive stats, especially for a 20-year-old.
Those aren't the only relevant numbers for Lyles and his team. The Astros appear to have significantly reduced the chances that Lyles will become a super two after 2013 and go through the potentially lucrative salary arbitration process an extra time.
Even if Lyles never sees the minor leagues again, he’ll have two years and 121 days of service time after 2013. That doesn’t figure to be enough for super two status – last year’s cutoff was unusually low at two years and 122 days – so Lyles is only on track for three arbitration years.
But it’s too early to know how much service time will be required for super two status three offseasons for now, because the cutoff date changes most years. And since baseball’s collective bargaining agreement expires after 2011, there’s no guarantee that the super two will exist a few years from now (though coming up with alternative that satisfies baseball’s owners and the players’ association will not be easy).
There’s a good chance that the Astros will have to option Lyles to the minors at some point – few 20-year-olds make the big leagues and even fewer thrive instantly at the highest level. If Lyles does return to the minors, the projections could change dramatically, as they did for Brett Cecil, Jenrry Mejia and legions of other pitching prospects who were demoted after debuting in the big leagues.
Everything from the super two cutoff to the CBA to Lyles’ development is subject to change, but here’s what we know: if the rules stay the same, the cutoff falls where we expect it to and Lyles stays in the big leagues from here on, the Astros will have avoided super two status for the young righty and saved themselves millions in the process. That may not be Houston's intention – there's much more to player development than waiting until Memorial Day then calling up your top players – but at the very least it's a pleasant coincidence.