Draft Notes: D’Backs, Rays, Rendon, Bauer
A year ago, everybody knew Bryce Harper was going to be the first overall pick in the draft. The year before that, Stephen Strasburg was the clearcut favorite to be the top selection. This time, there's no obvious candidate to go first overall. Here's the latest on the draft, with five weeks to go until the big day:
- ESPN.com's Keith Law hears that D’Backs GM Kevin Towers is seeing Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, Dylan Bundy, Trevor Bauer, Bubba Starling and Danny Hultzen in anticipation of the draft (Twitter link). Arizona selects third and seventh overall this year, so it's not surprising that Towers is scouting the top available players.
- Rays scouting director R.J. Harrison told Joe Lemire of SI.com that he hadn't had any extra picks to work with before last year. A bevy of ranked free agents left the Rays for other teams last offseason, which means that Tampa Bay has 11 of the first 75 selections this June. "We're not going to get up all wound up and create something out of this, other than to stick with our process and evaluate our players properly," Harrison said.
- Cole, high school shortstop Francisco Lindor, Hultzen and Rendon top the list Jon Heyman of SI.com creates with the help of a number of scouting directors.
- Heyman hears that UCLA right-hander Trevor Bauer is "shooting up the board" and could become a top-five pick, along with his rotation mate, Cole.
- Check out my interview with Rendon from last week for his thoughts on the upcoming draft. Here's our series of Draft Prospect Q&As.
Brewers Acquire Jordan Brown
The Brewers acquired minor leaguer Jordan Brown from the Indians for cash considerations, according to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer (on Twitter). The move creates roster space for returning Rule 5 pick Josh Rodriguez at Triple-A, according to MLB.com's Jordan Bastian (on Twitter).
Brown, a 27-year-old first baseman/outfielder, debuted with the Indians in 2010 and had spent the first month of the 2011 season at Triple-A. He has a .278/.373/.472 line at Columbus one month into his seventh minor league season (his fourth at Triple-A). The 2005 fourth round pick has a .305/.369/.471 line in 2523 minor league games. However, he struggled through 26 big league games last year, hitting .230/.272/.310 in 92 plate appearances.
Rosenthal On Mariners, Bautista, Machado, Rays
The depth of the Indians’ rotation is their biggest question, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Now that Carlos Carrasco and Mitch Talbot are on the disabled list, the Tribe’s other options are being tested. Here’s Rosenthal’s latest from around the league:
- The Mariners have the resources to bring in additional veterans when they want to, according to Rosenthal.
- Jose Bautista, one of the top players in the game right now, is impressing just about everyone, including his own skipper. “His game awareness is as good as you’re going to get,” manager John Farrell told Rosenthal. “His ability in that regard takes him to another level."
- A scout told Rosenthal that Manny Machado “looks like a man playing with little boys.” The Orioles selected the 18-year-old shortstop prospect with the third overall pick in last year’s draft and he has a 1.090 OPS in Class A.
- The Rays may need to upgrade over Casey Kotchman at first base, but a definitive improvement may be difficult to find. The Brewers are likely to keep Prince Fielder, as Rosenthal points out.
Millwood Hopes To Sign This Week
Veteran righty Kevin Millwood "would like to have his situation resolved this week with some big league team," tweets Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Connolly says Millwood can't talk to teams for 24 hours after opting out of his Yankees contract yesterday. Said the pitcher, "I am waiting to see which teams have interest, if any. That's pretty much it. I'm ready. I definitely still want to pitch."
The Orioles have "mild interest" in reuniting with Millwood, according to Connolly. The 36-year-old posted a 5.10 ERA, 6.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9, and 37.2% groundball rate in 190 2/3 innings for Baltimore last year, earning $12MM on the last year of a contract signed with Texas in December of '05. That $60MM contract was earned on the heels of an ERA title for the Indians, but the first-place Tribe does not plan to pursue him now despite having Carlos Carrasco and Mitch Talbot currently on the DL, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
Millwood averaged 89 miles per hour on his fastball last year but was around 85 in his first couple of starts for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees, according to Jayson Stark's sources. He seems unlikely to jump directly onto a team's 25-man roster.
Offseason In Review Series
Last month I finished up my Offseason In Review series, a labor of love that unfortunately took two months to complete. I am especially proud of the series this year because I was able to talk to executives from more than a dozen teams, which often added angles I had not considered. Next year we'll aim for an even 30 and also try to wrap it up before Opening Day. Each article discussing the 2010-11 offseason is linked below. Special thanks to Ben Nicholson-Smith for editing all of them.
AL East
AL Central
AL West
NL East
NL Central
NL West
Discussion: How Many Aces In MLB?
A week ago I kicked off a discussion among MLBTR writers about how many true ace starting pitchers there are in baseball. I was surprised to find that my own off-the-cuff list totaled 18, with another eight falling into my "borderline" group. My list of aces, in no particular order:
Adam Wainwright
Roy Halladay
Cole Hamels
Roy Oswalt
Cliff Lee
C.C. Sabathia
Dan Haren
Jered Weaver
Josh Johnson
Justin Verlander
Felix Hernandez
Jon Lester
David Price
Tim Lincecum
Chris Carpenter
Clayton Kershaw
Matt Cain
Tommy Hanson
My borderline group:
John Danks
Yovani Gallardo
Brett Anderson
Ricky Romero
Zack Greinke
Ubaldo Jimenez
Francisco Liriano
Trevor Cahill
I didn't crunch any numbers here – just good old-fashioned gut feelings. But could there really be almost 20 ace starters in MLB? Let's see your list in the comments.
Lincecum’s Historic Arbitration Case
The Giants avoided a historic arbitration case with ace Tim Lincecum last year, agreeing to a two-year, $23MM deal. That contract just delayed the inevitable, as Lincecum will still be arbitration eligible after the 2011 season and the Beverly Hills Sports Council client is in line for an unprecedented payday.
No Comparables
When you talk to agents about Lincecum's upcoming arbitration case, you hear phrases like "uncharted waters" and "lands unknown." There is no arbitration comparable; the 26-year-old already has two Cy Young awards. Said one agent, "They will use all of the free agent numbers here, including C.C. Sabathia (even if he opts out), Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and everyone else with an impressive, cool silver and black plaque hanging in their basement. This negotiation will transcend arbitration and will be a mini free agency discussion."
The Raise Argument
All the agents I spoke to pegged Lincecum's 2012 salary in the $19-22MM range assuming he has a "normal" year. That's normal by Lincecum standards – something like last year's 3.43 ERA. That kind of season easily lends itself to an argument that Lincecum deserves much better than the $5.9MM raise Carlos Zambrano received in 2007, based on both platform year and career bulk. Lincecum is coming from a $14MM salary in 2011, so his agent Rick Thurman could demand a $7MM+ raise.
Assuming cases for pitchers such as Jered Weaver, John Danks, and Matt Garza are settled first, they could have a bearing on Lincecum. Most agents put Weaver in the $14-15MM range, but if he finds his way to $16-17MM, Lincecum's agent could argue for a bigger raise.
Another Cy Young?
Only eight pitchers have won three or more Cy Young awards, and none of them accomplished the feat by their fifth season. If Lincecum wins the award this year, he has a good case to be the highest-paid pitcher of all time. That means a salary beyond Lee's $24MM, perhaps well beyond. If Lee is worthy of five years at $24MM per, how much extra would it be worth to reduce the risk to a one-year deal? If Lincecum were a free agent after '11, coming off a Cy Young and limiting himself to a one-year deal, something like $28MM would be within reach. Multiple agents believe another Cy Young would propel Lincecum to $25MM or more for 2012.
Thinking About 2013
Lincecum is a Super Two player, meaning he's eligible for arbitration four times. If he lands a $25MM salary for 2012, the stakes would get even higher for '13. At that point even a .500 year in '12 would almost have to result in a $5MM raise, putting Lincecum at $30MM and putting the Giants in a tough spot.
Long-Term Possibilities
Lincecum might have been earning close to $20MM this year had the Giants not signed him to a two-year deal in February of 2010. The team figures to be motivated to attempt another multiyear deal. Lincecum, having already earned more than most pitchers who sign extensions during their arbitration years, might not be looking for the maximum number of years on an extension now. How about four years $90MM – $18MM in '12, $22MM in '13, and $25MM in '14 and '15? That'd allow Lincecum to reach free agency at age 31 and go for his first $100MM deal.
If he did try to maximize the term on a new contract, Lincecum could look for eight years. No matter how you slice it, an eight-year deal would exceed Sabathia's $161MM and be the largest contract ever for a pitcher.
Conclusion
The 2011-12 offseason is packed with fascinating storylines, led by possible free agency for Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, and Sabathia. But we may still have plenty to talk about in January and February, with all eyes on Lincecum's contract situation.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
2012 Contract Issues: New York Mets
The Mets are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series. Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:
Eligible For Free Agency (9)
- Jose Reyes has spent his entire career with the Mets, and Beltran has been with them since the '05 season. There seems little chance of either player being re-signed. Both are playing well on the young season and should do well in free agency. They're also midseason trade candidates, with Reyes expected to fetch more given his lower salary. At $18.5MM, Beltran might be mostly a salary dump even if he's healthy and hitting.
- Sandy Alderson imports Chris Capuano, Chris Young, Tim Byrdak, Jason Isringhausen, Scott Hairston, and Willie Harris are up for free agency again, as well as Ryota Igarashi. Several of the pitchers may be traded this summer if healthy and pitching decently.
Contract Options (1)
- Francisco Rodriguez: $17.5MM club option with a $3.5MM buyout. Guaranteed with 55 games finished. K-Rod needs 47 more games finished to cause his option to vest. It can be done; he finished 57 from May onward in 2009. The Mets will either have to trade him to a team with an established closer or be very careful about his usage.
Arbitration Eligible (4)
- First time: None
- Second time: Mike Pelfrey
- Third time: Ronny Paulino, Taylor Buchholz
- Fourth time: Angel Pagan
Pelfrey has posted one good start in six tries this year. A lousy platform year might hold down his arbitration raise, but he could still reach $6-7MM. The Mets could consider trading or even non-tendering the 27-year-old righty. Pagan has been brutal and Paulino has been out of the picture, though Buchholz has been a nice find. For the sake of argument, I could see Pelfrey, Pagan, and Buchholz earning $14MM in total in 2012.
2012 Payroll Obligation
The Mets' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $66.83MM, including Rodriguez's buyout. If the Mets save $10MM+ by unloading Reyes, Beltran, and Rodriguez at the trade deadline, will that money go to next year's payroll? Will Pelfrey be worth keeping around next year at $6-7MM? Even if the Mets' financial problems result in a payroll drop to the $100MM range, Alderson should still have $20MM to play with. A minority stake in the team could be sold by July, but Mets ownership will likely still be embroiled in a billion-dollar lawsuit when the 2011-12 offseason arrives. When the Mets finally have a clean financial slate, there should be a lot of payroll space to work with.
Pirates, McCutchen Discussing Extension
The Pirates are discussing a long-term contract extension with center fielder Andrew McCutchen, reports Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Kovacevic adds that "there is no sign that an agreement is imminent."
Talking to Kovacevic, McCutchen gushed about Pittsburgh and his willingness to remain with the Pirates for his entire career. McCutchen, who is represented by Steve Hammond of Aegis Sports Management, seeks a deal that "reflects potential future performance," in Kovacevic's words.
McCutchen, 24, owns a career line of .281/.362/.454 at the moment in 1,264 plate appearances. He's a couple weeks away from reaching two years of service time. He'll be at two years and 123 days of service after the season, which would have resulted in Super Two status using last year's cutoff. However, if CAA's early prediction of a 2.146 cutoff is anywhere close to accurate, McCutchen will not be a Super Two player. In that case he would be arbitration eligible after the 2012, '13, and '14 seasons. Regardless, he's eligible for free agency after the '15 season.
MLBTR's Luke Adams discussed McCutchen's extension candidacy in December, noting comparables Justin Upton and Jay Bruce. Since then another big name outfielder was extended in Carlos Gonzalez. Upton is the best comparable – he was extended between two and three years of service time and is not a Super Two. Bruce's deal would match up if you were to drop the fourth arbitration year; one other difference is that his included a club option on a third free agent season. CarGo's deal, of course, is the gold standard for those in McCutchen's service class. To line up Gonzalez's contract with Upton's, we could lop off the final-year $20MM salary and think of it as six years and $60MM.
If this gets done, I expect a six-year term for McCutchen, buying out two free agent years. Career bulk is a major factor in the arbitration process, so it should be important in a multiyear deal as well. A healthy 2011 season from McCutchen would give him a 100+ games played advantage over Upton, so I don't see why McCutchen would settle for less than $52MM.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Quick Hits: Feliz, Oswalt, Dodgers
A few items to close out this weekend..
- Given his recent mind-changing history, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter) suggests not reading too much into Neftali Feliz's thoughts on starting next season. Earlier today, Feliz said that he wants to continue finishing games for the rest of his career, before backtracking later on.
- Buster Olney of ESPN tweets that of all the players he has ever written about, he would say that Roy Oswalt is among those most likely to leave baseball whenever he felt it necessary.
- Tom Schieffer is a good pick to oversee the Dodgers, writes Olney. Olney writes that Schieffer is, by all accounts, a tough negotiator and someone who will make budgetary decisions and stick to them.