Make Or Break Year: Bobby Abreu
From 1998 through 2009, just nine players in baseball posted an on-base percentage of at least .400 (min. 6,000 PA), and only one did it with more than 100 total steals. That would be Bobby Abreu. From ages 24 through 35 ('98-'09), Abreu hit .301/.406/.497 with 253 homers and 341 steals for the Phillies, Yankees, and Angels. He wasn't quite a five-tool threat because his defense left a lot to be desired, but Abreu was an offensive force for more than a decade.
But in 2010, at age 36, the roof started to cave in. Abreu hit .255/.352/.435 overall, his lowest full season OPS ever. Although he still stole 24 bases, he was caught ten times for a 70.5% success rate, well below his 75.8% success rate from '98-'09. Abreu's first 40 double, 20 homer season since 2004 still resulted in the lowest full season slugging percentage of his career.
Both the player and club are in a bind in 2011. Abreu's contract contains a $9MM vesting option for 2012 that will kick in with 433 plate appearances next year, a total he's reached every year since 1998. If the option vests, the Angels are on the hook for another year of Abreu's decline phase. If it doesn't, Abreu is a declining 37-year-old free agent that is best suited for designated hitter. Those guys aren't in high demand.
The Halos have the option of platooning Abreu in 2011, which would limit his plate appearances. He hit just .228/.296/.342 against southpaws in 2010, down from .267/.348/.386 in 2009 and .315/.370/.495 in 2008. The team doesn't appear to have an obvious right-handed platoon partner though, unless they try to really force the issue with someone like Brandon Wood or Bobby Wilson.
Abreu has long been a productive player in this league, one that should at least spark some Hall of Fame debate, but his best course of action in 2011 is to play well enough (and often enough) that his option kicks in. It's highly unlikely he'll find that kind of money on the open market after the season.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Teams Monitoring Nick Johnson
Teams seeking a midseason on-base percentage boost would be wise to keep an eye on free agent Nick Johnson. After signing a one-year deal with the Yankees in December of 2009, Johnson appeared in only 24 games before a wrist injury ended his season. Two surgeries later, Johnson is "heading in the right direction" according to his agent Rex Gary.
Gary told MLBTR Johnson has been working out at Athletes' Performance Institute since October and clubs are monitoring his progress closely. The first baseman/DH is not expected to be ready for the start of the season and is not able to swing a bat at full bore currently. Still, Gary expects Johnson to be ready "early in the season." The agent added that Johnson will need some time in the minors, as he hasn't played in a game since May 7th of last year.
Johnson, 32, has a .401 career on-base percentage in nine seasons for the Yankees, Expos, Nationals, and Marlins. He's battled injuries throughout his career, but should still be an asset when he's able to play.
Quick Hits: Torre, Angels, Pirates, Millwood, Tigers
On this date last year, the Rangers voided Khalil Greene's $750K contract after he wasn't able to report to Spring Training due to social anxiety disorder. Greene did not play at all last season and remains a free agent.
Here are today's batch of links…
- Commissioner Bud Selig is scheduled to make a major announcement tomorrow, according to SI.com's Jon Heyman (Twitter links). Joe Torre will be hired as Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations, meaning he'll oversee on-the-field activity for MLB.
- Angels GM Tony Reagins spoke to Mike DiGiovanna of The Los Angeles Times about the team's use of advanced statistics. "We definitely use them," said the GM. Front office member Justin Hollander said they "use it for base-running, offense, defense, everything out there … If [Reagins] asks me to look at a guy in terms of a long-term contract, trade, free-agent signing, minor leaguer, he will know what I'm thinking and assign a value to it."
- Rob Biertempfel of The Pittburgh Tribune-Review says that the big test for Pirates owner Bob Nutting will be when young players like Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata are in line for long-term contract extensions. Team president Frank Coonelly recently spoke about what the team looks for when handing out such contracts.
- Bernie Miklasz of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch isn't sure why the Cardinals are so averse to signing Kevin Millwood to a one-year deal in the wake of Adam Wainwright's injury. Yesterday we heard that GM John Mozeliak said the team will first look internally for a solution.
- James Schmehl of MLive.com updates you on the 11 players from the Tigers' active roster last season that have since moved on.
AL East Notes: Yankees, Werth, Pavano, Jays, Rays
Seven years ago today, the Yankees signed Eduardo Nunez as a free agent out of the Dominican Republic. Now 23, Nunez is in the mix to be New York's utility infielder in 2011 after hitting .280/.321/.360 with more walks (three) than strikeouts (two) in his brief big league debut last season (53 PA).
Here are some more notes that have to do with the Yanks and their fellow AL East clubs…
- Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports that the Yankees "have told their scouts to bear down on several teams they think could have starters available" in a trade this summer. The teams they are targeting include the Braves, Angels, A's, White Sox, and Cardinals according to Sherman.
- Jayson Werth told SI.com's Jon Heyman that he had a "great" meeting with the Red Sox earlier this offseason, after which he figured they would offer six years (Twitter link). They only offered five, so he ended up with the Nationals.
- Carl Pavano spoke to Kelsie Smith of The Pioneer Press about being pursued by the Yankees this offseason. "I don't think [the past] would be a hindrance, but there would have definitely been obstacles," said Pavano. "I'm not naïve enough to think that there wouldn't have been things I would have had to overcome, especially the trust of the fans and maybe some of the guys that were there. That's reality."
- Richard Griffin of The Toronto Star notes (on Twitter) that four of the Blue Jays' ten highest paid players are former closers: Jason Frasor, Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, and Octavio Dotel.
- When asked about the payroll disparity between his Rays and other teams in the division, Joe Maddon told Ken Davidoff of Newsday that he's "never seen a dollar bill throw a strike, or hit a homer, or whatever." (Twitter link)
Phillies Have Asked Nationals About Mike Morse
1:23pm: Heyman says (on Twitter) the Nationals are not inclined to trade Morse to the Phillies, or anywhere else for that matter. They're intrigued by the work he's done with hitting coach Rick Eckstein.
12:29pm: After losing their top right-handed power threat this offseason, the Phillies have asked the Nationals about the availability of outfielder Mike Morse according to SI.com's Jon Heyman (on Twitter). Philadelphia's lineup is predominantly left-handed with Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez, and Domonic Brown, something that might be exposed with the departure of Jayson Werth.
Morse, 29 next month, hit .289/.352/.519 with 12 doubles and 15 homers in just 293 plate appearances for Washington last year, his first regular playing time in the big leagues since 2005. He crushed lefty pitching, hitting .295/.374/.625 with eight long balls against them in just under a hundred trips to the plate. Although he has experience on the infield, most of Morse's playing time has come in the corner outfield spots in recent years. He'll earn $1.05MM in 2011, the first time he was eligible for arbitration.
The Nationals outfield is pretty crowded right now, with only Werth guaranteed a full-time job. The other two spots will go to some combination of Morse, Rick Ankiel, Roger Bernadina, and Nyjer Morgan. Jerry Hairston Jr. can also play the outfield, and the Nats have both Matt Stairs and Laynce Nix in camp on minor league contracts.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Pujols, Reyes, Rays, A’s
On this date in 1973, the players and owners agreed to a new three-year collective bargaining agreement, ending the Spring Training lockout. The new deal introduced salary arbitration for players with two or more years of service to the game, as well as ten-and-five no-trade protection. While we wait to see what rule changes are included in the next CBA (due this December), here's the best the baseball blogosphere has to offers…
- Wahoo Blues interviewed Justine Siegal, the first woman to throw batting practice in MLB history.
- Bless You Boys chatted with Tigers prospect Brandon Douglas.
- Viva El Birdos goes through the 17 stages of grief following Adam Wainwright's injury.
- Pine Tar And Pocket Protectors looked at the ripple effect of Albert Pujols' impending free agency.
- The Golden Sombrero explains why Pujols' venture into free agency is bad for baseball.
- Blue Sox Baseball muses about Pujols' inevitable contract and what's best for the Cardinals.
- Amazin' Avenue analyzed Jose Reyes and his future as it pertains to the Mets.
- The Process Report examines Rays' attendance immediately following the Scott Kazmir trade and in recent years (part one, part two).
- The Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan wonders if the Athletics are built to last beyond 2011.
- Through The Fence Baseball muses about how teams can get the most out of their young pitchers.
- The Nats Blog looks at the best seasons by position player teenagers, hoping that Bryce Harper will one day crack the list.
- Tomahawk Talk continues its series looking at seven keys for the 2011 Braves.
- Capitol Avenue Club writes about the lesson learned from Andy Marte.
- The Biz of Baseball examines the potential ripple effect of Hunter Pence's arbitration award.
- Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? explains why 2011 is an important year for the Pirates.
- D'Backs Central looks at the Diamondbacks outfield setup for the upcoming season.
- Blog Red Machine tackles the idea of Jay Bruce hitting leadoff in 2011.
- Phillies Nation finished their countdown of the top 25 Phillies' prospects.
- Rooftop View tries to rationalize Alfonso Soriano's contract.
- 1 Blue Jays Way posted their 25 Man Roster Challenge.
- The Ghost of Moonlight Graham named its five offseason winners.
- Cubs Billy Goat Blog helps you prepare for your fantasy draft.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here. Only one email per week, please.
Coonelly On Budget, Draft Picks, Payroll, Extensions
Kevin Creagh of Pirates Prospects recently interviewed Pirates team president Frank Coonelly, who spoke about a number of hot stove topics. Let's recap…
- If GM Neal Huntington wants to make a move that would cause the team to exceed its budget, whether it be a trade, free agent, draft signing, etc., Coonelly said "Neal and his staff will make a case for such a decision and I will then take that case to [owner] Bob Nutting. If Bob agrees that the case has been made and that exceeding the budget for the proposed signing will not hinder our ability to make the other investments that need to be made, he will approve the acquisition."
- Nutting and Coonelly will bring the fans' interest into the equation if a trade involves a popular player, such as Nate McLouth or Jason Bay.
- "We need to reduce the compensatory selections so that the second selection of the club drafting first in the country is not 58 or 60 instead of 31," said Coonelly, with regards to the draft pick compensation system. "Now, [the Rays] received those selections because it lost good players in free agency but it is difficult for the draft to serve its purpose when there are so many compensatory selections before the second round."
- The team would not be able to support a $70-80MM payroll right now, but they "will be able to support that payroll very soon if [their] fans believe that [they] now have a group of players in Pittsburgh and on its way here in the near future that is competitive."
- Nutting told Rob Biertempfel of The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that payroll is not dependent on attendance. "We're not artificially handicapped by extreme limitations on dollars, as we have been in the past," said the owner. "I don't see there being an artificial constraint as we move forward."
- Factors such as track record, health, makeup, and character go into the decision about whether or not to sign a player to a long-term deal. "We need to be convinced that we can count on the player over the long term and that requires trust in the player as a person and as a teammate," said Coonelly.
Coonelly also spoke about his day-to-day responsibilities, minority partners, and how he spends his free time.
Quick Hits: Rockies, Dodgers, McDonald, Clippard
Links for Thursday night..
- While I wondered if the Braves could be a match for the Cardinals as they look for pitching, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports suggests that the Rockies could be a match. A major league source told Rosenthal that the Cards will first explore internal options before looking out-of-house.
- Commissioner Bud Selig has rejected a proposal under which FOX would have loaned about $200MM to Dodgers owner Frank McCourt, three people familiar with the talks told Bill Shaikin of the LA Times.
- Ex-Giant Juan Uribe is happy to be aboard with the Dodgers, writes John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle.
- Former Dodgers pitcher James McDonald is excited to turn over a new leaf with the Pirates, writes Evan Drellich of MLB.com. McDonald was shipped to Pittsburgh along with Andrew Lambo for Octavio Dotel last season.
- Nationals reliever Tyler Clippard says that he will continue to be represented by agent Casey Close, who is leaving CAA Sports, writes MLB.com's Bill Ladson.
- Brewers right-handers Justin James and Shaun Marcum were drafted by Toronto in the same year but took very different paths to wind up in Milwaukee, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. James claimed off waivers by the Brewers from the A's this offseason.
Discussion: Should The Braves Shop Their Starters?
Earlier today, the Cardinals confirmed that Adam Wainwright will undergo Tommy John surgery, shelving him for all of 2011. Without last year's Cy Young runner-up, St. Louis will certainly be in the market for a pitching upgrade. They're not the only team that could use a rotation boost, however. The Yankees and Nationals would like to shore up their respective starting fives, as would the Indians, though they likely can't afford a hefty contract.
Despite the need for pitching around the league, Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez doesn't expect the club to move any of its starters. Earlier today, Buster Olney noted that the Yankees have not inquired on veteran Tim Hudson but is sure that the club would love to have him. Fellow vet Derek Lowe could also hold some value, but the righty is owed $30MM across the next two seasons.
The rotation is rounded out with Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens with Mike Minor, Rodrigo Lopez, Brandon Beachy as fifth-spot candidates, leaving the Braves with plenty of depth. Obviously, if Atlanta were to part with a hurler, they would opt to trade away Kenshin Kawakami, though finding a taker for his $6.67MM salary might be easier said than done. The club has dangled the 35-year-old for quite some time but might have to instead settle for selling him to a Japanese team, which would pick up half of his contract.
If you were in GM Frank Wren's position, would you sacrifice some of your pitching depth to upgrade elsewhere or would you prefer to hang on to your starters as insurance?
Ryan Braun Content With Contract
Early on in the 2008 season, the Brewers and Ryan Braun reached agreement on an eight-year, $45MM extension. In the past three years, the 27-year-old has more than lived up to his end of the pact, hitting .303/.363/.535. While some Brewers fans might worry that the outfielder will become unhappy with his contract that seems to favor the club, Braun has put those worries to rest, writes Adam McCalvy of MLB.com.
"I get it, but it's a non-issue," the three-time All-Star said. "I pay attention to what goes on around the game, obviously, but I'm happy for all of those guys. I agreed to a deal three years ago that goes five [more] years, and I'm excited and honored to be here."
One of "those guys" was Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who agreed to an extension that will provide him with just under $158MM through 2020. It's hard not to draw comparisons between the two as they were separated by just two picks in the 2005 Draft – Braun went to Milwaukee at No. 5 and Tulowitzki to the Rockies at No. 7. Despite the disparity in contracts, Braun insists that he's not jealous of the star shortstop's paycheck.
As McCalvy points out, Braun's deal is still the richest guaranteed deal in Brewers history. It could be surpassed by Rickie Weeks' five-year, $50MM extension, but that deal can be voided in the final year if he is not a regular in 2013 and 2014.