Make Or Break Year: Mike Pelfrey
The Mets slashed more than $25MM off their Opening Day payroll from last season, but one player they held onto was Mike Pelfrey. The club's Opening Day starter a year ago was a non-tender candidate this past offseason, and now he has to show that they make the right decision by keeping him around for another year.
Pelfrey, 28, has yet to live up to the expectations of being the ninth overall pick in the 2005 draft. He has made at least 31 starts and thrown at least 180 innings in each of the last four seasons, but he's pitched to a 4.27 ERA during that time. Pelfrey's career strikeout (5.1 K/9), walk (3.2 BB/9), and ground ball (48.5%) rates leave an awful lot to be desired, especially for a pitcher making $5.675MM in his second year of arbitration-eligibility.
The Mets were reportedly open to trading Pelfrey last month, and at one point they were even said to be considering releasing him. That didn't happen, and instead the 6-foot-7 right-hander will make his season debut tonight. If the club was thinking about trading him in Spring Training, there's a pretty good chance they're hoping he performs well early in the season so they could flip him for a decent return at midseason. Quality starting pitching is always in high demand at the trade deadline.
At the same time, there's also the chance that Pelfrey does not improve his performance and boost his trade value. Another season like last year (4.74 ERA in 193 2/3 innings) or 2009 (5.03 ERA in 184 1/3 innings) likely means that the Mets are stuck with him, at least until the non-tender deadline in December. At that point he would be a free agent coming off three disappointing seasons in the last four years. A good year could mean a trade to a contender and a hefty salary in 2013, but another typical Pelfrey season means something much less lucrative.
Photo courtesy of US Presswire.
Rosenthal On Cubs, Brewers, Aybar, Padres, Volquez
It's no secret that the new regime in Chicago will need time to turn the Cubs around, but Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes that the changes to the draft rules will hamper their progress even further. Both the amateur draft and free-agent market are more difficult for high-revenue teams to exploit, giving Epstein a significant speed bump to deal with. In Boston, Epstein went over-slot to draft core pieces such as Dustin Pedroia, Jonathan Papelbon, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, and other assets used to trade for Adrian Gonzalez, Jason Bay, and Victor Martinez.
In the short-term, the Cubs need to get as much as possible out of Jeff Samardzija, Anthony Rizzo, and Brett Jackson. For the long-term, they can consider trading Matt Garza for prospects or, go in the other direction and sign the right-hander to an extension. Here's more from Rosenthal..
- If the Brewers wind up falling out of contention, Milwaukee could be an interesting seller at the trade deadline. Potential free agent right-handers Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, and reliever Francisco Rodriguez would all be in high demand if the Crew isn't in contention in late July. The club will have to restock their farm system at some point as they rank near the bottom in MLB.
- Rosenthal opines that the Angels shouldn't hesitate to sign shortstop Erick Aybar to an extension. Many believe that the Halos could let him go and turn to prospect Jean Segura, but the youngster is playing above Class-A for the first time this season and has struggled with injuries in the past. The Angels signed Howie Kendrick to a four-year, $33.5MM extension earlier this offseason.
- A scout following the Padres saw them often in spring training and raves about the team’s future. San Diego is unlikely to sign major free agents but eventually could swing a Mat Latos trade in reverse, using prospects to acquire young impact players. Edinson Volquez, who is earning just $2.2375MM, could have immediate value at this year's trade deadline.
Red Sox Notes: Bard, Theo, Valentine, Cook
While three games isn't a great sample size, it's never too early to panic in Boston or New York. Some items on the Red Sox this afternoon..
- The season may be young but Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports fears that the Red Sox's bullpen issues might be a sign of a long-term problem. Rosenthal writes that it might be time for the BoSox to turn to Daniel Bard as the closer since it is far too early in the season to trade for a reliable replacement.
- Theo Epstein left behind quite a mess from his final years in Boston, writes Tony Massarotti of the Boston Globe. When adding up the salaries of Carl Crawford, John Lackey, Bobby Jenks, Andrew Bailey (not an Epstein acquisition, though), and Daisuke Matsuzaka, the Red Sox effectively have more than $60MM on the disabled list.
- Is skipper Bobby Valentine looking to take Moneyball out of the equation in Boston? While some of Bobby V's decisions have raised eyebrows early in the year, Rob Neyer of SBNation says that it's far too early to tell one way or another.
- Veteran Aaron Cook can opt-out of his minor league deal on May 1st but it's more likely that the 33-year-old will have a place on the major leauge roster by then, writes Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. Cook will earn the prorated portion of $1.5MM if he is called up to the varsity squad.
Minor Moves: Indians, Hu, Padres, Rangers
Today's minor moves, courtesy of Baseball America's Matt Eddy..
- The Indians and Phillies reversed a trade from earlier this winter which sent Chin-lung Hu to Philadelphia. Cleveland then released Hu soon after. The middle infielder joined the Phillies in camp in late March but wound up failing his physical. Hu, 28, spent his entire MLB career in the Dodgers organization before being traded to the Mets last offseason.
- The Padres released right-hander Dennis Tankersley who signed with his former club a month ago in an attempted comeback. The 33-year-old was ranked as San Diego's second-best prospect in 2002 (behind Sean Burroughs and ahead of Jake Peavy) but hasn't appeared in the majors since '04 and the minors since '08.
- The Rangers cut former Rule 5 pick Mason Tobin, who appeared in a handful of games for Texas last season but spent most of the year on the disabled list. The right-hander has been beset by arm trouble since 2008.
Poll: When Will The Dodgers Contend?
After the much maligned Frank McCourt sold the team to a group headed by Stan Kasten and Magic Johnson, it's once again a good time to be a Dodgers fan. In the short-term, the news is likely to spark attendance at Dodger Stadium. In the long-term, patrons are hopeful that they will see the club spend the money necessary to win. Despite being in the nation's No. 2 media market, the Dodgers have just the 12th highest payroll in baseball this season after spending about $50K more than the Twins and about $50MM less than the Phillies.
While they didn't make a Prince Fielder-sized splash this winter, they did manage to lock up Matt Kemp to an eight-year, $160MM deal that will keep him in L.A. through his age-34 season. They also signed Clayton Kershaw to a two-year, $19MM deal, but they'll really have to break out their checkbooks to sign the left-hander into his free agent years. They'll also have to dole out major money to keep Andre Ethier next winter if the outfielder stays healthy and plays up to his ability in 2012.
The Dodgers might not be ready to play with the big boys just yet, but they do have pieces in place and it appears that they'll have the money needed to build on that. However, it's not yet clear when they'll start spending and how soon those dollars can translate to wins. Some have speculated that the Dodgers could add to their payroll prior to the deadline if they appear to be in the mix for the playoffs. Others think that the club will hold off on their spending splurge until the offseason. All things considered, when do you think the Dodgers will find themselves back in contention?
When Will The Dodgers Be Contenders?
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2013 28% (2,774)
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2012 27% (2,697)
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2014 21% (2,100)
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Not anytime soon 18% (1,773)
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2015 5% (510)
Total votes: 9,854
Quick Hits: Greinke, Astros, Votto, Padres
On this day in 1970, the Cardinals sent first baseman/outfielder Willie Montanez to the Phillies as part of a compensation package for Curt Flood refusing to report to Philadelphia when he was dealt in October of 1969. Flood's story is now part of baseball lore but Montanez would go on to have a solid career of his own. Montanez played 14 years in the majors and hit .275/.327/.402 for his career. Here's a look at tonight's links..
- Buster Olney of ESPN.com (Insider sub. req'd) writes that in order for Brewers pitcher Zack Greinke to restore his value, the hurler has to to alter the perception that he can be a troublesome clubhouse presence. Olney writes that there are already some teams who won't consider him because of the reputation he earned in Kansas city.
- The Astros were able to land outfielder Justin Maxwell off of waivers from the Yankees earlier today thanks to their top position on the waiver wire. Houston GM Jeff Luhnow says that while he hopes to win more games, he plans on taking advantage of their wire position, writes MLB.com's Brian McTaggart.
- Locking up Joey Votto doesn't come cheap but the Reds made the right move when they made him a $200MM man, opines B.J. Bethel of the Dayton Daily News. The Reds, he writes, have not produced a bona fide superstar since the days of Barry Larkin and Eric Davis.
- Jay Paris of the North County Times thinks that Padres owner John Moores needs to do more to endear himself to fans if he hopes to keep the club's attendance numbers up.
Rangers Notes: Kinsler, Hamilton, Pitching
Ian Kinsler and the Rangers have been working hard to hammer out a contract extension but so far the two sides have yet to reach agreement. Here’s more on the second baseman and other items out of Arlington..
- Buster Olney of ESPN.com’s (via Twitter) gut feeling is that second baseman Ian Kinsler and the Rangers will work out a long-term deal. Earlier this week the two sides were working towards a new deal that would guarantee Kinsler’s 2013 option at $10MM and add five seasons at about $14MM per year.
- In a piece for ESPN Insider (sub. req’d) Christopher Cwik of Fangraphs writes that Josh Hamilton‘s move to center field could cost him millions on the open market. Hamilton will hit free agency along with a group of other defensively-talented players at the position including Michael Bourn, Shane Victorino, and B.J. Upton.
- It has taken the Rangers about six years of commitment to transform into a pitching-first organization but they’ve pulled it off, writes Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News. “We were known as an offensive organization,” club president and CEO Nolan Ryan said. “We chose to put at least as much emphasis on pitching as we did hitting…We were committed to becoming the most balanced organization we could be.”
Phillips, Reds Progress Toward Extension
The Reds have agreed in principle to a six-year, $72.5MM extension with Brandon Phillips, Jim Bowden of ESPN.com and MLB Network Radio reports (Twitter links). However, the agreement is pending approval from ownership and the deal remains unconfirmed.
The Reds are prepared to guarantee six years and $72.5MM, Bowden writes. The former Reds GM predicts the sides will complete a deal within 24 hours. Ian Kinsler’s recent deal may figure in as a comparable contract.
Phillips would be eligible for free agency following the 2012 season if the Reds don't lock him up. The ACES client posted a .300/.353/.457 line with 18 home runs and 38 doubles in 675 plate appearances last year. He won his third Gold Glove in 2011, and advanced assessments of his fielding confirm he is a strong defender.
AL East Notes: Yankees, Pettitte, Rays, Blue Jays
The last time the Yankees and Red Sox both started the season 0-3 was all the way back in 1966. Boston finished 9th in the AL while New York wound up 10th. The World Series champions that year? – the Orioles. Here's a look at what's happening in the AL East today..
- Yankees Manager Joe Girardi told reporters including Bryan Hoch of MLB.com that Andy Pettitte will make the first start of his comeback attempt on Monday for Class-A Advanced Tampa. The left-hander has said that he hopes to join the big league team in May.
- Even though it's (very) early in the season, the Rays' decision to hold on to their pitching depth appears to be a wise one at the moment, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Tampa Bay was widely expected to add a bat by dealing Jeff Niemann or Wade Davis, but Davis has helped to provide bullpen support with Kyle Farnsworth sidelined.
- The Blue Jays promoted Aaron Laffey from Triple-A to join the bullpen, tweets Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com. Laffey's minor league deal with the club calls for him to earn $800K for making the big league roster.
Week In Review: 4/1/12 – 4/7/12
It’s time for a look back at the week that was, including a pair of monster contract extensions..
- Joey Votto and the Reds agreed to a ten-year, $225MM contract extension in a deal that includes full no-trade protection. With this new deal, he is now under contract for the next 12 years at a total price of $251.5MM. In 2011, Votto followed up his MVP season with a .309/.416/.531 line, 29 homers, and 40 doubles.
- The Giants agreed to a five-year extension with Matt Cain which guarantees him $112.5MM in new money through 2017. The deal, which establishes a record for right-handed pitchers, includes a club/vesting player option for 2018.
- The Indians signed shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera to a two-year extension for 2013-14. The deal is worth $16.5MM and will delay Cabrera’s free agency by one year. The 26-year-old enjoyed a breakout season in 2011, batting .273/.332/.460 with a career-high 25 home runs.
- The Mets signed left-hander Jonathon Niese to a five-year extension with two club options. The deal is worth $25.5MM and the two options could push the total value to $46MM. Niese will earn $1.02MM this year, $3MM next year, $5MM in 2014, $7MM in 2015, and $9MM in 2016.
- Casey Close of Excel Sports Management will represent Zack Greinke as the right-hander embarks on the final season of his contract with the Brewers.
- Red Sox president Larry Lucchino says he’s willing to add payroll to improve the pitching staff even if it takes them over the luxury tax threshold.
- The Reds offered Brandon Phillips a five-year, $60MM contract extension for the 2012-16 seasons. One Reds source believes Phillips would sign if the Reds offer a sixth guaranteed season.
- Ian Kinsler and the Rangers are close but haven’t hammered out a new deal just yet.
- Carlos Lee agreed to waive his 10-and-5 rights in exchange for full no-trade protection during the first four years of his contract though he can still block trades to 14 unknown teams this year.
- Details of the Dodgers sale came to light and the new ownership group has agreed to assume $412MM of the club’s debt.
- The Cubs inquired about Nats pitcher John Lannan this week. The left-hander requested a trade and made it known to the public on Wednesday.
- Agent Scott Boras says that client Johnny Damon will sign somewhere by May 1st.
- The Braves announced that they signed right-hander Chad Durbin to a Major League contract after he opted out of his deal with Washington.
- Free agent Vladimir Guerrero changed agencies from SFX to Proformance, Tim reported.
- The cutoff for super two players after the 2012 season will be two years and 134 days of service time, according to preliminary internal studies by CAA.
- The Yankees signed right-hander Ramon Ortiz and traded for catcher Chris Stewart on Wednesday. They also DFA’d Justin Maxwell and saw Bill Hall elect free agency.
- The Reds claimed Alfredo Simon off of waivers from the Orioles.
- The Cardinals acquired Cedric Hunter from the Athletics for future considerations.
- With Chase Utley on the shelf for the foreseeable future, the Phillies have shown interest in Mike Fontenot.
- The Braves acquired Juan Francisco from the Reds.
- The Indians designated Thomas Neal for assignment and released Felix Pie.
- The Rangers signed right-hander Aaron Heilman to a minor league contract.
- The Orioles released right-hander Armando Galarraga.
- The Rangers re-signed Brad Hawpe to a minor league contract.