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2021 Amateur Draft Rumors: Pirates, Mayer, Orioles, Mock Drafts

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The 2021 amateur draft begins on July 11, and with the later date comes more time for analysis, predictions, smokescreens, rumors, and possible major changes up and down teams’ draft boards.  With this in mind, there is naturally quite a bit of uncertainty over which prospects will land with which teams, as a real consensus has yet to develop in almost every single spot in the first round.

Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo, The Athletic’s Keith Law, MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis, and ESPN.com’s Kiley McDaniel have all published new mock drafts within the last week, and one constant emerged between the four pundits — the Pirates taking California high school shortstop Marcelo Mayer with the first overall (1-1) pick.  It isn’t a sure thing by any means, however, as the Pirates are said to be focused “only on position players at this point,” according to Law, so such candidates as Louisville catcher Henry Davis (Callis cites Davis as Pittsburgh’s apparent “Plan B”) or high school shortstops Jordan Lawlar and Khalil Watson could still be in the mix.  Collazo also believes the Pirates are considering Vanderbilt right-hander Jack Leiter.

The Pirates’ $14,394,000 draft bonus pool is the highest of any team, and they plan to maximize value by drafting a player at 1-1 who is thought to be less willing to insist on the full slot price $8,415,300 slot price for the first overall pick.  “I think that’s what Pittsburgh’s pick will come down to: taking the one that is clearly cheaper to sign,” McDaniel writes, which certainly isn’t welcome news to Pirates fans long frustrated by the team’s unwillingness to spend.

That being said, many teams have deployed the strategy of spreading around their draft bonus money in the past.  The most famous example was the Astros’ pick of Carlos Correa (seen as a slight reach at the time) first overall in 2012, and Houston signed Correa to a below-slot bonus and then using that saved money to sign 41st-overall pick Lance McCullers Jr. to an above-slot deal.  It also isn’t like Mayer would be a controversial choice at 1-1, considering that MLB Pipeline ranks him first on their top 250 draft prospects list, and McDaniel’s most recent prospect ranking has Mayer second overall.

While Mayer looks like the favorite at the moment, it is quite possible the perceived price tags could still fluctuate in the next three weeks.  For instance, the three pundits all note that the Tigers love Mayer, so he isn’t likely to fall beyond Detroit at the third overall pick if the Pirates and Rangers (who pick second) both pass.  As McDaniel observes, this impacts Mayer’s leverage in potential negotiations with the Pirates, since the young shortstop can be reasonably certain of at least landing a bonus in range of the $7,221,200 slot price attached to the third overall pick.

There is no consensus whatsoever in the mock drafts after a hypothetical Pirates/Mayer 1-1 pick, so if Pittsburgh went in another direction, the draft boards would be entirely blown up.  To give you an idea of the wide range of scenarios, here is the list of players cited by Callis, Collazo, Law and McDaniel as possibilities for each team drafting in the top eight, along with which pundit selected which prospect for each top-eight team in their mock draft.

  • 1. Pirates: Mayer (Callis/Collazo/Law/McDaniel), Henry Davis, Jordan Lawlar, Khalil Watson, Jack Leiter
  • 2. Rangers: Leiter (Callis), Lawlar (Collazo/Law), Davis (McDaniel), Kumar Rocker, Mayer, Watson….in a contrast to the other three pundits, Callis writes that Texas has Lawlar and Davis “on the back burner” behind Watson, Mayer, and Leiter.  “Watson has real heat at this spot,” Collazo writes.
  • 3. Tigers: Mayer, Jackson Jobe (Callis/Collazo), Leiter (Law), Brady House (McDaniel), Lawlar, Watson, possibly Rocker “as a big maybe” in Collazo’s words
  • 4. Red Sox: Lawlar (Callis), Davis (Law), Leiter (Collazo/McDaniel)….Collazo doesn’t believe Leiter would fall beyond Boston at fourth overall,
  • 5. Orioles: Davis (Callis), Colton Cowser (Law), Watson (Collazo/McDaniel), House, Harry Ford, either of Mayer/Lawler if they happened to fall….Baltimore is widely expected to take a college position player at an under-slot price, as a way of keeping money in reserve to go over-slot on other picks.
  • 6. Diamondbacks: Rocker (Callis), Davis (Collazo), Watson (Law), Lawlor (McDaniel), Jobe
  • 7. Royals: Watson (Callis), Rocker (Collazo/Law/McDaniel)….this is another minor consensus area, as Law and McDaniel believe that Rocker isn’t likely to fall beyond Kansas City.  “The market for Rocker is weirdly specific,” Law writes, citing the Rangers, Red Sox, Royals, Nationals, and Mets as perhaps the only true interested parties.  Of course, Callis projected the D’Backs to take Rocker at sixth overall, so Arizona could also be a candidate for the Vanderbilt righty.
  • 8. Rockies: House (Callis/Collazo/Law), Benny Montgomery (McDaniel), Jobe

All four mock drafts are well worth reading in full, to get a sense of what the 29 teams with first-round picks are generally targeting this year or have historically looked for in past drafts.  (The Astros aren’t included, as they lost their first-rounder as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.)

For more on the prospects themselves, you can check out the aforementioned lists from McDaniel and MLB Pipeline, Baseball America’s top 500 list, or some of the individual writeups from the Sports Info Solutions blog on such top college players as Florida outfielder Jud Fabian, Wake Forest right-hander Ryan Cusick, UCLA shortstop Matt McClain, and Mississippi right-hander Gunnar Hoglund.

Rockies Claim Bernardo Flores Jr., Designate Ryan Castellani

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The Rockies announced Thursday that they’ve claimed lefty Bernardo Flores Jr. off waivers from the Cardinals and designated righty Ryan Castellani for assignment in order to open a spot on the roster. Flores has been optioned to Triple-A.

St. Louis had designated the 25-year-old Flores for assignment earlier in the week after previously claiming him off waivers from the White Sox. He appeared in just one game with the Cards this season but was unable to retire any of the three Mets hitters he faced in that May 5 outing. Flores posted solid numbers up through the Double-A level during his time with the White Sox organization, but he’s surrendered a 5.74 ERA through 31 1/3 frames with lackluster strikeout and walk rates while pitching for the Cardinals’ Triple-A affiliate (17.6 percent and 12.2 percent, respectively).

While Flores has struggled this season, left-handed depth is an area of need for the Rockies, who currently have two struggling southpaws in their big league bullpen: Ben Bowden and Lucas Gilbreath. The only other near-MLB left-handed bullpen option on the roster is Yoan Aybar, who hasn’t fared well in Double-A. Veteran Chris Rusin and former Yankees/White Sox prospect Ian Clarkin are both in Triple-A as non-roster players, but neither has pitched well there.

Castellani, 25, was a second-round pick by the Rockies back in 2014 and has landed among their top 15 prospects in each of the past seven years, per Baseball America’s rankings. He posted solid but unspectacular results for the first several seasons of his minor league career but began to see his numbers take a dip when he repeated the Double-A level in 2018.

Despite a particularly rough showing at the Triple-A level in 2019, Castellani made his MLB debut with the Rox in 2020. His first two appearances went quite well, as he held opponents to one run with a 10-to-3 K/BB ratio and a 50 percent grounder rate in 8 2/3 frames, but he was hit hard for most of the remainder of the summer. Castellani oscillated between the bullpen and the rotation, finishing out his rookie campaign with a 5.82 ERA, a 13.2 percent strikeout rate and a 13.8 percent walk rate in 43 2/3 frames. His 2021 season hasn’t gone much better in the big leagues (two runs in 3 1/3 innings) or in Triple-A (7.82 ERA in 35 1/3 innings).

Castellani does have a minor league option remaining beyond the current season, so perhaps another club in need of some pitching depth will have ideas about how to coax a better performance out of him. The Rox have a week to trade him or attempt to pass him through outright waivers.

Rockies Assistant GM Zach Wilson Resigns

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In yet another front-office departure in Colorado, assistant general manager Zach Wilson has resigned from his post, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports. Wilson is the second assistant GM to resign in the past week, joining Jon Weil in that regard. Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich stepped down from his post earlier this season. Owner Dick Monfort appointed longtime vice president of scouting Bill Schmidt to interim GM in his place. Harding adds that assistant director of player development Chris Forbes is stepping up to assume Wilson’s duties.

Wilson’s departure from the organization subtracts another veteran executive from the Rockies’ front office as a pivotal trade deadline season approaches. Wilson’s name was in the mix to take over Bridich’s duties when the post was originally vacated, and he’s been with the club for upwards of two decades. The Rox still have Schmidt and longtime assistant GM Zack Rosenthal heading up the baseball operations department, it seems, but they’re now out their GM and a pair of his top lieutenants with the trade deadline five weeks away.

The mounting number of departures gives Monfort more work to do this offseason as he looks to reshape the front office of a club that has again been one of the worst in Major League Baseball. Monfort has typically been loyal and promoted from within, though the recent failures on the field and the highly publicized rift between the front office and now-former third baseman Nolan Arenado has prompted speculation about hiring from outside the organization.

The 30-44 Rockies have MLB’s fifth-worst winning percentage (.405) and sixth-worst run differential (-58). Shortstop Trevor Story and right-hander Jon Gray are expected to be two of the game’s highest-profile trade candidates in the coming weeks, while others who could potentially hit the market include C.J. Cron, German Marquez, Mychal Givens and Kyle Freeland.

Rockies Activate Chris Owings

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The Rockies announced they’ve reinstated utilityman Chris Owings from the 60-day injured list. Righty Joe Harvey has been designated for assignment to clear active and 40-man roster space.

Owings will make his return after missing a little more than two months because of left thumb surgery. Signed to a minor league deal over the winter, the 29-year-old made the Opening Day roster and played a fantastic seven games before going down with the injury. He broke camp as the starting second baseman with Brendan Rodgers on the IL. With Rodgers having returned in the interim, Owings figures to assume a utility role off the bench.

Harvey was selected to the roster two days ago but didn’t get into a game. He made 22 appearances with the Yankees and Rockies between 2019-20, working to a 4.22 ERA/5.25 SIERA. Colorado has twice passed Harvey through outright waivers in the past. They’ll have a week to trade him or attempt to outright him again. If he clears waivers, he’d have the right to reject a minor league assignment in favor of free agency.

Rockies Place Austin Gomber On 10-Day IL Due To Forearm Tightness

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TODAY: Gomber has been placed on the 10-day injured list, the team announced.  In corresponding roster moves, righty Joe Harvey’s contract was selected from Triple-A, while right-hander Jordan Sheffield was moved to the 60-day IL.

JUNE 19: Rockies left-hander Austin Gomber left tonight’s start after two innings due to left forearm tightness, the team announced.  The removal was made “for precautionary reasons,” specifically.  Gomber stayed in the game long enough to make a plate appearance in the bottom of the second inning, dropping down a sacrifice bunt.  (MLB.com’s Thomas Harding noted that Jhoulys Chacin was already warming up in Colorado’s bullpen before Gomber’s at-bat, so it doesn’t appear as though the injury occurred while Gomber was at the plate.)

Injuries have already led to one big setback in Gomber’s career, as he missed the entire 2019 season due to shoulder and biceps problems.  A forearm issue is naturally of major concern, and it could be that the Rockies were simply acting as quickly as possible in removing Gomber at the first hint of trouble.

The 27-year-old Gomber carried an outsized spotlight entering the season, as he was the only player with MLB experience amongst the four-player package the Rockies received from the Cardinals in the Nolan Arenado trade.  Colorado fans were notably displeased about pretty much every facet of that deal, though Gomber’s recent numbers have provided a silver lining.  After a slow start to the season, Gomber had caught fire, posting a 1.28 ERA over his last seven starts and 42 1/3 innings heading into tonight’s outing against the Brewers.

Gomber is under team control through the 2025 season, giving the Rockies either a rotation building block or potentially even a future trade chip (i.e. not at this year’s trade deadline) depending on whether or not the team embarks on a wide-scale rebuild.  A serious forearm injury, of course, would interrupt either of those scenarios.

NL West Notes: Muncy, Bellinger, Seager, Gray, Dickerson, Ruf, Rockies, Weil

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The Dodgers are aiming to put much of their lineup back together in time for a big three-game series with the Padres beginning on Monday.  As of now, the hope is that Max Muncy and Cody Bellinger could both come off the injured list in time for at least part of that series, L.A. manager Dave Roberts told The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya (all Twitter links) and other reporters.  Muncy (oblique strain) and Bellinger (hamstring tightness) both haven’t played since June 11 and are eligible to be activated off the 10-day IL on June 22.  The duo each took part in a simulated game at the Dodgers’ Spring Training facility today, Roberts said.  Corey Seager (fractured hand) might not be too far behind them, as he is tentatively to begin a rehab assignment next week after being sidelined since May 15 due to a fractured hand.

The news isn’t as positive for Dodgers pitching prospect Josiah Gray, as Roberts said Gray is “a ways down the road” in being ready to return from a shoulder impingement.  A consensus top-100 prospect in baseball, Gray made his Triple-A debut this season but pitched in only one game before getting injured.  The 23-year-old right-hander had been projected to make his Major League debut later this year assuming things went well at Triple-A, but Gray might not have too long to get healthy and then make a good impression on the mound if he is going to factor into the Dodgers’ September call-up plans.

More from the NL West…

  • Giants manager Gabe Kapler told reporters (including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle) that Alex Dickerson and Darin Ruf are beginning minor league rehab assignments today.  Ruf was placed on the 10-day IL with a right hamstring strain on May 27, while an upper back strain sent Dickerson to the IL on June 9.  With so many members of the first-place Giants playing well, Slusser thinks the impending returns of Dickerson and Ruf could create a bit of a roster crunch.  Someone like Mike Tauchman, for instance, couldn’t be easily moved off the roster since he is out of minor league options, so the Giants would have to first expose him to waivers if they wanted to send him to Triple-A.
  • The Rockies parted ways with assistant GM Jon Weil earlier this week, with The Athletic’s Nick Groke adding some more details about the front office situation.  Weil was told that the team wouldn’t be renewing his contract, which ended Weil’s 16-year run in the organization.  Between Weil leaving and VP of scouting Bill Schmidt being promoted to the interim GM job, both Weil’s and Schmidt’s former roles haven’t been filled, as the team has instead moved their responsibilities around to other current employees.  In addition, the baseball operations department is being overseen by Rockies president of business operations Greg Feasel.  This doesn’t seem like an ideal situation for a Rockies club that looks to be approaching a critical trade deadline and potential rebuilding period, — as Groke puts it, “a potential trade of [Trevor] Story and [Jon] Gray will be left to a business-minded president with no baseball experience, an interim GM with only two remaining lieutenants, and no true research department.”

NL West Notes: Weil, Seager, Sanchez, Crawford

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The Rockies and assistant GM Jon Weil have mutually decided to part ways, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (Twitter link).  Weil has been with the organization since 2005 and in his current role since 2014, and The Denver Post’s Nick Groke writes that Weil is known league-wide as “an astute evaluator,” such as his “instrumental” role in the Rockies’ acquisition of German Marquez in a trade with the Rays back in January 2016.

Weil was considered a candidate for the interim GM role after Jeff Bridich’s resignation back in April, though the club opted to give the job to another long-time employee in VP of scouting Bill Schmidt.  The circumstances of Weil’s departure aren’t known, and it could be just as simple as both sides wanting a change after so many years.  For a Colorado front office known for its long-term continuity, however, it could perhaps be a hint that the organization is looking ahead to some wider-scale changes after the season, such as the hiring of a new general manager or president of baseball operations from outside the organization.

More from the NL West…

  • Dodgers manager Dave Roberts is hopeful that Corey Seager can begin a minor league rehab assignment by the “middle to end of next week,” the skipper told The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and other reporters.  Seager suffered a fractured right hand after being hit with a Ross Detwiler pitch on May 15, and was expected to miss at least a month in recovery.  The first step will come this weekend, as Seager is slated to do some hitting on the field at the Dodgers’ Spring Training facility.  Seager was still ranked in the spot on MLBTR’s most recent 2021-22 Free Agent Power Rankings, assuming that he is able to return to the field in due course and is still able to play to his usual high standard in the wake of his injury.
  • Aaron Sanchez left a minor league rehab outing tonight after 1 1/3 innings due to a blister on his throwing hand, Mark W. Sanchez of KNBR reports.  The Giants right-hander has a checkered history of blister and finger issues, which ruined his last three seasons with the Blue Jays following an All-Star season in 2016.  Sanchez missed all of 2020 recovering from shoulder surgery and was seemingly putting together a decent comeback campaign (3.18 ERA/4.26 SIERA) over 28 1/3 innings with San Francisco this year before biceps tightness sent him to the injured list on May 8.
  • Longtime Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford hit a career milestone today when he officially reached 10 full years of Major League service time, and Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group commemorated the achievement with a look back at several memorable moments from Crawford’s career.  Ten years in the big leagues is a major landmark for any player, perhaps especially for a somewhat modestly-scouted player (Crawford was a fourth-round pick in 2008) who has become a fixture with his hometown team.  Crawford’s contract with the Giants already contained a full no-trade clause, though by locking in “10-and-5” rights, Crawford can veto any potential trade for the remainder of his career.  This isn’t to say that a trade is anywhere on the horizon, as the shortstop is posting career-best numbers for the first-place Giants.

Rockies Place Mychal Givens On 10-Day Injured List

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The Rockies placed right-hander Mychal Givens on the 10-day injured list due to a strain in his left lower back, the team announced.  Right-hander Justin Lawrence was called up from Triple-A to take Givens’ spot on the active roster.

Givens has a 2.78 ERA/3.98 SIERA over 22 2/3 innings for Colorado this season, with an above-average 26.6% strikeout rate but an 11.7% walk rate that sits only in the 19th percentile of all pitchers.  In short, it isn’t much different from Givens’ usual performance over his seven MLB seasons, as he has missed his share of bats while running into control issues through 368 career innings for the Orioles and Rockies.

One notable difference is that Givens is making his changeup a far bigger part of his arsenal this season — after a 69.6%/9.8% split between his fastball and change prior to 2021, Givens has thrown his heater only 45.2% of the time this season, and increased his changeup usage to 39.9%.  While Givens hasn’t gotten great results from his changeup specifically, his four-seamer has become a more effective pitch, after it had been getting hit increasingly harder over the last few years.

Baltimore sent Givens to Colorado in a deadline deal last August, and the righty again seemed like an obvious trade candidate on a Rockies team that will almost surely be selling by July 30.  Givens is scheduled for free agency after the season, and on a salary of slightly more than $4MM, he’d be an inexpensive add for a team in need of bullpen help.  (Givens would only have about $1.38MM remaining in owed salary if dealt on July 30.)  However, an injury could certainly throw a wrench into those plans, especially considering the vague nature of some back injuries.

NL West Notes: Rockies, Schmidt, Brebbia, Weathers

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“At the end of the day it’s going to come down to, what are they offering?” Rockies interim GM Bill Schmidt said of his team’s deadline plans, telling MLB.com’s Thomas Harding and other reporters that the front office isn’t under a mandate to cut payroll.  To this end, it’s possible a prime trade chip like Trevor Story isn’t moved at all, if no club makes the Rockies an acceptable offer.

Story is reportedly not planning to re-sign with Colorado when he enters free agency after the season, though if the Rox didn’t trade him at the deadline, the team wouldn’t be left completely empty-handed if Story departed.  Since Story would assuredly reject Colorado’s qualifying offer, the Rockies would be in line for a compensatory draft pick after the first round of the draft.  “I trust our ability to make a good pick,” Schmidt said, noting that Story himself (as well as Nolan Arenado and Ryan McMahon) were all selected by the Rockies within that general range of the draft order.  Of course, this could also very well be gamesmanship on Schmidt’s part, letting trade suitors know that they’ll need to top the value of a first-round sandwich pick in order to land Story at the deadline.

More from the NL West…

  • John Brebbia underwent Tommy John surgery a little over a year ago, and the right-hander is making steady progress in his recovery.  The right-hander has already made six appearances for the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate, and Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group writes that Brebbia’s next step is pitching in consecutive games, which he is scheduled to do tonight and Tuesday.  After the Cardinals non-tendered Brebbia last winter, San Francisco signed Brebbia to a one-year, $800K contract, and he is still under team control via arbitration through the 2023 campaign.  That could end up being a very shrewd acquisition for the Giants, especially if Brebbia is indeed able to make a relatively quick return from TJ surgery (the normal recovery timeline is 13-15 months) and match the solid numbers he posted out of the Cards’ bullpen from 2017-19.
  • The Padres are moving Ryan Weathers to the bullpen, as the team will return to a normal five-man rotation and use Weathers to boost the heavily-worked San Diego relief corps.  Manager Jayce Tingler told reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that the other starters had the benefit of a recent off-day for extra rest, but added that while the Weathers move is “going to help the team…it’s not necessarily permanent.”  After appearing in the NLDS last season, Weathers made his regular-season MLB debut this year and has posted a 2.44 ERA over 44 1/3 innings, starting eight of 13 games.  Despite that nice ERA, Weathers has a 4.49 SIERA, and has been aided by an 87.2% strand rate and a .225 BABIP.  As Tingler noted, it is quite possible Weathers will again be used as a starter should injuries or circumstances dictate, but for now, the Padres will go with Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Chris Paddack, and Dinelson Lamet as their starting five.

Minor MLB Transactions: 6/14/21

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The latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Marlins acquired catcher/first baseman Lorenzo Quintana in a trade with the Astros.  The 32-year-old Quintana is a veteran of seven seasons in Cuba’s Serie Nacional, hitting an impressive .310/.377/.438 over 1636 plate appearances.  Quintana signed with the Astros in November 2017 and hit pretty well in his first three minor league seasons, including a .311/.372/.340 slash line in 113 plate appearances with Triple-A Sugar Land this season.  While his power dropoff is a concern, Quintana gives Miami another depth option in the minors, particularly at the catcher position.
  • The Cubs announced Sunday that right-hander Dakota Chalmers has cleared waivers and been sent outright to Double-A Tennessee.  Chalmers was claimed off waivers from the Twins earlier this month, and the Cubs can now keep a young arm in the organization without devoting him a 40-man roster spot.  Chalmers entered this season as the #24 prospect in the Minnesota system, per Baseball America, which praised his mid-90s velocity and high-spin curveball but questioned his strike-throwing ability.  Indeed, Chalmers has since walked an untenable 23.8% of opposing hitters at Double-A this year, so the Cubs player development staff will need to help him improve his control if he’s to make it to the big leagues.
  • Earlier this month, the Rockies signed infielder Kelby Tomlinson to a minors contract and released right-hander Ben Meyer.  Tomlinson appeared in 273 games with the Giants from 2015-18 (hitting .265/.331/.332 in 687 PA), primarily playing as a second baseman but also making appearances as a third baseman, shortstop, and left fielder.  Since his last big league game, Tomlinson has inked minor league deals with Diamondbacks, Mariners, and also the Rockies in a previous contract last season; Colorado released Tomlinson last June.  Meyer has been in Colorado’s organization for almost exactly two years, since the righty was let go by the Marlins.  A 29th-round pick for the Marlins in the 2015 draft, Meyer’s MLB resume consists of 19 innings and a 10.42 ERA with Miami in 2018.
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