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Latest On Jon Gray, German Marquez

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Rockies starter Jon Gray is scheduled to hit free agency at the end of the season. With Colorado having virtually no chance to make the playoffs, that makes the 29-year-old one of the more logical trade candidates in baseball. Indeed, MLBTR’s Steve Adams ranked Gray the #1 trade candidate in the sport last week.

Gray changing teams next month still seems the most likely outcome, but Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports the Rockies are expected to offer him a contract extension before pulling the trigger on any trade. Of course, the club offering Gray an extension doesn’t guarantee he’d stick around. The Rockies don’t look particularly close to contention, and the CAA Sports client may prefer to field offers from more immediate contenders this winter instead.

As Rosenthal notes, Colorado’s hitter-friendly home park could also work against them in convincing a pitcher to voluntarily stick around for the long haul. Gray, though, is the rare arm who hasn’t seemed too affected by Coors Field. His career home/road splits are nearly identical, and Gray’s actually been far better at home this season (3.25 ERA, .167/.264/.314 opponents’ slash line) than on the road (6.75 ERA, .350/.400/.538 line).

Extensions for starting pitchers this close to free agency are atypical, as one might expect. Over the past four seasons, only two starters with five-plus years of MLB service time signed extensions. Righty Sonny Gray inked a three-year, $30.5MM guarantee with the Reds in 2019. That was part of an agreement to facilitate a trade from the Yankees to Cincinnati, though, so it’s not a perfectly analogous situation. Righty Lance McCullers Jr., meanwhile, signed a five-year, $85MM deal with the Astros in March. McCullers is nearly two full years younger than Jon Gray and has a better career track record (even after adjusting for park), so the Rockies hurler would have a hard time commanding that kind of commitment.

Gray’s contractual status makes his situation one of the more pressing for interim general manager Bill Schmidt. He’s not the only Colorado starter drawing attention from rival clubs, though. Rosenthal reports the Rockies are also receiving interest in starter Germán Márquez. That’s certainly no surprise. Márquez has worked to a 3.91 ERA in 71 1/3 frames this season- a strong mark for a pitcher in Coors Field- with quality strikeout and ground ball rates (24.7% and 52.7%, respectively). Márquez has walked quite a few batters this year (11.2%), but he was one of the game’s better strike throwers between 2017-20.

In addition to his strong track record of performance, Márquez is controllable through 2024 under the terms of an extension he signed in April 2019. He’s making just $7.5MM this year, followed by respective salaries of $11MM and $15MM in 2022 and 2023. The deal contains a $16MM club option (with a $2.5MM buyout) for 2024. Given that long-term control, the Rockies needn’t move Márquez this summer, and Rosenthal suggests they’re unlikely to do so.

Between Gray, Márquez and impending free agent shortstop Trevor Story (who doesn’t seem likely to re-sign), the Rockies have a trio of players who should continue to generate plenty of calls from contenders. There’s a particular sense of urgency with regards to Gray and Story, as the organization seeks the core of the next contending club in Colorado.

Injury Notes: Antone, Rosenthal, Sanchez, Owings

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The Reds announced Friday that they’ve placed righty Tejay Antone on the 10-day injured list due to inflammation in his right forearm. The team is hopeful that it’ll be a minimum stint for Antone, tweets C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic. Even a 10-day absence for Antone is a blow to the Reds, however, given how excellent he’s been out of the ’pen this season. Antone looked to have put together a breakout year in 2020, but he’s taken things even further in his age-27 campaign this year. The right-hander has tallied 32 innings out of the bullpen and recorded a brilliant 1.41 ERA to go along with a 34.5 percent strikeout rate and a 9.5 percent walk rate. Antone regularly works multiple innings and has picked up three saves to go along with seven holds.

After non-tendering Archie Bradley and dumping Raisel Iglesias’ salary in a deal with the Angels, the Reds have seen their bullpen pitch to an MLB-worst 5.88 ERA. That sky-high mark comes in spite of Antone’s dominance; the Reds’ other relievers have combined for a disastrous 6.58 ERA in 203 2/3 innings so far.

A few more notable injury situations around the league…

  • The Athletics are still hopeful that Trevor Rosenthal will be able to pitch for the team this season, writes Martin Gallegos of MLB.com. Oakland currently has a mid-August target for Rosenthal, who developed thoracic outlet symptoms this spring after signing a surprising one-year, $11MM deal with the A’s. He underwent surgery prior to Opening Day, and while he’s not yet throwing, Rosenthal is progressing through a strength program. The Oakland bullpen has been a middle-of-the-pack unit so far in 2021, pitching to a 3.87 ERA with a 3.79 FIP. A’s relievers have the game’s lowest collective strikeout rate (20.5 percent) but also have one of the best walk rates (8.6 percent). Prior to their deal with Rosenthal, the A’s seemed to target relievers who were underpriced due to sub-par strikeout rates but also thrived in terms of limiting hard contact. To this point, the bullpen’s 34.5 percent hard-hit rate is the third-lowest in MLB.
  • Marlins starter Sixto Sánchez has resumed his rehab program, as he’s now throwing from 60 feet, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com was among those to pass along. Sánchez, who went down with shoulder inflammation in early April, had his throwing program paused last week on account of bursitis. He’s yet to pitch this season after tossing 39 innings of 3.46 ERA/4.18 SIERA ball in 2020.
  • Rockies utilityman Chris Owings is expected to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Albuquerque this weekend, manager Bud Black told reporters (including Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post). He’s already progressed to taking batting practice. Owings, who signed a minor league deal over the winter, made the Opening Day roster and got off to a scorching start over his first seven games. Unfortunately, he suffered a left thumb injury that required surgery in mid-April, keeping him out of action for more than two months.

Rockies Activate Trevor Story

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The Rockies have reinstated shortstop Trevor Story from the 10-day injured list in advance of tonight’s game against the Marlins. He’s back in the starting lineup, hitting fourth in the order. Infielder Alan Trejo was optioned to Triple-A Albuquerque to create active roster space. Story has been out since May 28 due to right elbow inflammation.

The Rockies are surely happy to welcome their best player back into the fold, but the bigger focus for the out-of-contention club is on Story’s impending free agency. The 28-year-old is among the top players scheduled to hit the open market in a few months. It certainly looks as if Story won’t wind up re-signing with the Rockies, making him one of the more likely players in the game to change teams this summer. MLBTR’s Steve Adams placed Story second among the league’s top trade candidates last week, only behind teammate Jon Gray.

It hasn’t been a banner season to this point for Story. He was off to just a .255/.322/.424 start before going on the IL. Regardless, there’ll be plenty of interest from contenders as the deadline approaches thanks to his strong track record. Between 2018-20, he hit an impressive .292/.355/.545 with 83 homers in 1571 plate appearances.

Riley Pint Retires

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Rockies right-handed pitching prospect Riley Pint has retired from baseball at the age of 23, Thomas Harding of MLB.com was among those to relay.

Pint – who at times showed off triple-digit velocity – was the fourth overall pick of the Rockies in 2016, at which point outlets such as MLB.com and Baseball America ranked him as the second-best prospect in his class. BA even wrote then that Pint had a chance to turn into a Justin Verlander-type ace in a best-case scenario, though it did note that there were concerns regarding his control.

The Rockies signed Pint to a $4.8MM bonus after they picked him, but his inability to throw strikes on a consistent basis helped lead to his undoing. Pint walked at least five batters per nine at every minor league level from 2016 through this season, and he ever advanced beyond High-A ball. He’ll wrap up his career with a 5.56 ERA and 8.8 K/9 against 7.2 BB/9 across 166 2/3 frames in the minors.

Rockies assistant general manager of player development Zach Wilson has left the door open for Pint to return, but for now, he’s the latest of their recent high picks to retire early. Fellow righties Mike Nikorak (the 27th pick in 2015) and Robert Tyler (38th in 2016) have also stepped away from the game since 2020.

Report: Trevor Story Not Planning To Re-Sign With Rockies

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Trevor Story is widely seen as one of the top trade candidates in baseball, and if the Rockies don’t move him prior to the July 30 trade deadline, they reportedly can’t count on him returning as a free agent for 2022 and beyond.  Story doesn’t plans to re-sign with the Rox when he hits the open market this winter, sources tell Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post.

The two sides hadn’t discussed an extension as of February 23, according to Story, though it isn’t known if any negotiations took place during March or even beyond Opening Day.  That said, given the amount of discussion that would go into working out a long-term deal worth well north of $200MM, the fact that the Rockies had yet to broach the subject even by late February of Story’s walk year could be seen as a sign that the team wasn’t counting on Story sticking around.

Frankly, it would be more surprising if Story did have designs on a return to Denver, considering that the Rockies are struggling through another losing season and seem closer to a rebuild than a return to contention.  Interim GM Bill Schmidt told Saunders and other reporters that the team has been showing some improvement on the field, and felt that the Rockies were just a few clutch hits away from having a much better record than their current 24-36 mark.  Even if Colorado was a few games closer to the second NL wild card slot than its current 10.5-game deficit, however, that still shouldn’t change the equation about how the Rockies seem overdue to reshuffle their roster.

Regardless, it’s clear that the Rockies haven’t publicly thrown in the towel on the 2021 season just yet, as Schmidt said that it’s “not necessarily” the case that Story or Jon Gray would be dealt.  Trade discussion has yet to pick up in general, as Schmidt said that “some clubs have reached out and expressed (interest), if we get to that point.  But there has not really been anything to talk about…There is nothing really to follow up on.”

Saunders doesn’t feel the team would move Story prior to the All-Star Game in Denver, so it will likely be over a month before trade speculation can really begin in earnest on Story, Gray, or any other Rockies.  Plus, Story has to take the first step of just getting back on the field, as the shortstop has been on the 10-day injured list since May 28 (retroactively) due to right elbow inflammation.  Colorado manager Bud Black told MLB.com’s Thomas Harding and other reporters that Story is expected to be ready for the start of the Rockies’ series with the Marlins on Tuesday.

When and if Story’s trade market picks up, both MLB Network’s Jon Morosi and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale expect the Athletics to be involved.  Oakland is leading the AL West despite getting sub-replacement player value from Elvis Andrus at shortstop, as Andrus is hitting only .214/.259/.273 through 201 plate appearances.  Most of those struggles were contained to the first month of the season, as Andrus has hit a more respectable .295/.337/.385 over 83 PA from May 7 to June 5, but there is little doubt Story would be a much bigger upgrade for an A’s team that has postseason aspirations.

Payroll would be a major factor in any potential Story/Oakland deal, as the shortstop is owed $17.5MM for the 2021 season and will still have approximately $5.92MM in remaining salary by late July.  While it doesn’t seem like a huge splurge for an All-Star shortstop, it remains to be seen what the budget-conscious A’s have available to spend, or if they feel the value of having Story for a World Series push is worth both the salary outlay and the prospects the A’s would be sending to Colorado in a trade.

Pitcher Notes: Gray, Kikuchi, Peralta, Brasier

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Rockies right-hander Jon Gray went on the injured list yesterday with the ominous-sounding diagnosis of elbow soreness/forearm tightness in his throwing arm. Fortunately, an MRI revealed no structural damage, manager Bud Black told reporters (including Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post). That’s fantastic news for player and team alike. Gray is scheduled to reach free agency at the end of this season, so his finishing the year healthy is of upmost importance as he looks to market himself around the league. His contractual status, coupled with the Rockies 23-36 record, also makes him one of the game’s most obvious trade candidates in advance of the July 30 deadline.

A few more notes on pitchers around the league:

  • Mariners left-hander Yusei Kikuchi left last night’s start against the Angels in the fifth inning after being struck on the right knee by a David Fletcher line drive. The team announced he’s been diagnosed with a knee contusion/bone bruise. Kikuchi, who had to be helped off the field, was able to put some weight on his leg after the game manager Scott Servais told reporters (including Corey Brock of the Athletic). Servais suggested he didn’t believe there was any sort of fracture, and Kikuchi’s feeling “better than expected” today (via Brock), although it’s still possible he’ll need an IL stint. Kikuchi has been the Mariners best starter this year, tossing 66 2/3 innings of 3.92 ERA/3.64 SIERA ball.
  • Brewers righty Freddy Peralta has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. The 25-year-old is among the league’s top fifteen hurlers in ERA (2.25), SIERA (3.11), and strikeout/walk rate differential (26.1 percentage points). Will Sammon of the Athletic looks back at the December 2015 trade that sent Peralta, then a low minors pitching prospect, from the Mariners to the Brewers as part of the return for first baseman Adam Lind. Matt Kleine, now the Brewers vice president of baseball operations, initially spotted Peralta on the Mariners back fields in 2013. Intrigued by his fastball shape and athleticism, Kleine pushed the Milwaukee higher-ups to bring in Peralta via trade, and the opportunity presented itself when the Mariners expressed interest in Lind. Sammon breaks down Peralta’s continued progression and evolution (including the development of a slider and changeup to diversify his once fastball-heavy repertoire) in a piece that’ll be of interest to Brewers fans.
  • Red Sox reliever Ryan Brasier, who has been rehabbing from a left calf strain, was hospitalized after being struck in the head by a comebacker during a simulated game in Fort Myers this week. He has since been released, although Brasier suffered a concussion and an ear laceration, notes Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe (Twitter link). That will halt his rehab process for the time being, although it’s certainly a relief he escaped more serious injury after the scary incident.

Rockies Place Jon Gray, Jordan Sheffield On 10-Day Injured List

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3:31PM: Gray has been placed on the 10-day IL with a right flexor strain, the Rockies announced.  Right-hander Jordan Sheffield is also headed to the 10-day injured list due to a right lat strain.  Left-handers Ben Bowden and Lucas Gilbreath have been called up from Triple-A to fill the roster spots.

8:29AM: Rockies right-hander Jon Gray left Friday’s game after 2 1/3 innings due to what manager Bud Black described as right elbow soreness and tightness in Gray’s forearm.  Gray was charged with five runs in the abbreviated outing, with the injury clearly a factor.

“When I spoke to Jon, he indicated that his soreness impacted his pitching,” Black told The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders and other reporters.  “I don’t think he felt it on every pitch.  It started to tighten as the game went on.  That’s when we noticed the variability with his pitch-making and with his mannerisms.”

In the bigger picture, any sort of forearm or elbow issue is naturally a major concern for a pitcher.  It seems likely that Gray will miss at least one start for precautionary reasons if nothing else due to the nature of the injury, and a trip to the injured list shouldn’t be ruled out until Gray undergoes further testing and medical examination.  Gray has generally avoided any major arm injuries over the years, apart from the shoulder inflammation that prematurely ended his 2020 season in early September.

While it’s too early to ring the alarm on a potential Tommy John surgery, an injury that sidelines Gray for any noteworthy amount of time will have some ramifications on both his future and the Rockies’ trade deadline plans.  In the opinion of MLBTR’s Steve Adams, Gray is nothing less than the top trade candidate in baseball at this point in the season, owing to Colorado’s spot near the bottom of the standings, Gray’s decent numbers through 63 innings, and the righty’s impending free agent status.

An IL stint of anything more than a month or so would throw a wrench into Gray’s trade value, or perhaps prevent a deal altogether if teams are concerned about Gray’s arm.  Similarly, Gray’s ability to score a lucrative multi-year deal in free agency this winter could be hampered, perhaps to the point where he’d have to settle for a one-year deal.

Gray had been inconsistent in the three starts prior to last night’s injury-shortened appearance, and for the season, he has posted a 4.29 ERA/4.72 SIERA over 63 innings.  His 18.5% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate are both below average, but Gray’s overall Statcast outlook is not bad, and his 52.4% grounder rate is a career high.  Though Gray has been much better at Coors Field than on the road this season, he has some value as a potential change-of-scenery candidate who could perhaps thrive in a more normal pitching environment than the thin air of Colorado.

Rockies Notes: Story, Joe, Trejo, Bowden

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The Rockies can breathe a sigh of relief: There is no structural damage to Trevor Story’s elbow, per the Athletic’s Nick Groke (via Twitter). The star shortstop’s MRI came back clean, so the Rockies can now look forward to his return as early as next Tuesday.

While the biggest news out of Colorado was no doubt results of that MRI, they also completed a couple of roster moves. The Rockies recalled infielder Alan Trejo from Triple-A and optioned Connor Joe.

Joe has done a nice job in 52 plate appearances, particularly getting on base with a .365 OBP, but the 25-year-old Trejo brings the ability to play up the middle. At least while Story is out, Trejo provides the Rockies with more defensive insurance, especially as they run with a four-man bench. Trejo made his Major League debut earlier this season, slashing .216/.268/.270 in 41 plate appearances.

Yesterday, southpaw Ben Bowden was reinstated from the injured list and optioned to Triple-A, per the team. The 26-year-old Vanderbilt product posted a 6.39 ERA/4.54 FIP in 15 appearances prior to the left shoulder strain that landed him on the injured list.

Rockies Place Trevor Story On 10-Day Injured List, Reinstate Matt Adams

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The Rockies have placed shortstop Trevor Story on the 10-day injured list with right elbow inflammation, retroactive to yesterday. Matt Adams has been reinstated from the injured list to take his roster spot, per the team.

Story’s health will now be a top article for the Rockies moving forward. This is an injury he dealt with back in 2018, notes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. There’s plenty of time to get him back into the lineup to prove his health before peak trade season, however. The Rockies, of course, have to consider their trade options for Story, a free agent at the end of the season. His numbers are down a touch thus far with a triple slash line of .255/.322/.424 through 205 plate appearances, though there would still be plenty of interest should the Rockies ultimately decide to deal their franchise player. In the meantime, Brendan Rodgers steps in at short in what could prove to be an audition for the role in the long-term.

Adams, 32, returns to his role primarily as a bopper off the bench. “Big City” hasn’t had much opportunity since slugging 20 home runs for the World Champion Nationals in 2019. He has stepped to the plate just 72 times between this year and last for the Braves and Rockies, respectively. In total, Adams has just two long balls in that span with a .162/.208/.279 slash line.

Lucas Gilbreath has also been recalled to serve as the 27th man for today’s doubleheader, notes Fangraphs’ Roster Resource architect Jason Martinez. The 25-year-old southpaw has an 8.59 ERA over 7 1/3 innings this season, the first Major League action of his career.

The Best Minor League Deals Of 2021 (So Far): Pitchers

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We took a look last week at some of the minor league pacts that have paid the most dividends, focusing in on position players in both leagues. Unsurprisingly, given the lack of offense throughout baseball as a whole at the moment, there are even more success stories on the pitching side of the coin. Some of these are products of small sample size, particularly for the many relievers on the list, but at least for our initial check-in on this subject, the early returns have been strong.

  1. Ian Kennedy, RHP, Rangers: We’re nearing Memorial Day weekend, and Kennedy is tied for the American League lead in saves — just as everyone expected! The 36-year-old righty isn’t just scraping by and narrowly escaping in a bunch of three-run leads, though. He’s tallied 19 1/3 innings and allowed just four runs, all while recording a terrific 31.1 percent strikeout rate and a tiny 5.4 percent walk rate. If Texas remains near the bottom of the AL West standings, he’ll be an appealing trade target for bullpen-needy clubs.
  2. Drew Steckenrider, RHP, Mariners: A quality setup man with the 2017-18 Marlins, Steckenrider’s time in Miami was derailed by injuries — most notably a 2019 flexor strain. He looks to be back on track in his new surroundings, however, having tossed 18 1/3 innings of 2.45 ERA ball with a 29.2 percent strikeout rate and an 11.1 percent walk rate. The walks are a bit elevated, but he’s helped to combat that with a career-best 54 percent ground-ball mark. The Mariners (or another club) could control Steckenrider through 2023 via arbitration as well, which only adds to the value.
  3. Jimmy Nelson, RHP, Dodgers:  The Dodgers just placed Nelson on the injured list due to a forearm issue, so there are (once again) some obvious health question marks with Nelson. There’s no ignoring how effective he’s been thus far, however. Nelson’s 39.1 percent strikeout rate is the ninth-best among all MLB relievers, and he’s paired that with a pristine 2.41 ERA. Like Shaw, he’s walked too many batters (13 percent), but the former Brewers ace has shown high-leverage, late-inning potential with L.A.
  4. Bryan Shaw, RHP, Indians: Shaw was an iron man in the Cleveland ’pen but flopped in Colorado after signing a three-year, $27MM contract going into 2018. Back in his old stomping grounds, he’s tallied 19 innings with a pristine 1.42 ERA. The 33-year-old has issued 13 walks, so he’ll need to cut back on the free passes if he hopes to continue this success, but Shaw’s strikeout and ground-ball percentages are among the best of his career (29.3 percent, 57.5 percent, respectively).
  5. Lucas Luetge, LHP, Yankees: Luetge’s last MLB appearance prior to his Yankees debut came with the 2015 Mariners. The now-34-year-old southpaw signed minor league deals with five organizations before making it back to the show, which is remarkable in and of itself. That he’s been one of the Yankees’ best relievers, however, makes his story all the more incredible. Luetge, who entered 2021 with all of 89 MLB frames under his belt, has a 2.95 ERA and a 19-to-3 K/BB ratio in 21 1/3 innings for the Yankees thus far. Considering the injuries to Zack Britton and Darren O’Day, Luetge’s unexpected contributions have been a godsend. If he can keep this up, he’ll be arbitration-eligible this winter and controllable through the 2024 season.
  6. Hyeon-jong Yang, LHP, Rangers: Yang, a former KBO MVP, could’ve returned to that league on a guaranteed deal but refused to give up on his aspirations of playing in the Majors, even if it meant taking a non-guaranteed pact. He’s 21 1/3 innings into the realization of that lifelong goal, and the Rangers are no doubt pleased with their decision. Yang, 33, opened the season with the Rangers’ alternate site group but had his contract selected in late April. He now owns a 3.38 ERA, and while his pedestrian strikeout and walk rates might point to some possible regression, he’s induced plenty of weak contact (average 87.4 mph exit velocity, just a 13.1 percent line-drive rate). An 11.2 percent swinging-strike rate suggests there could be more K’s to come, as well.
  7. Chi Chi Gonzalez, RHP, Rockies: Gonzalez’s numbers don’t stand out that much, but he’s eating innings and delivering roughly league-average run-prevention numbers when adjusting for his home park (102 ERA+, 99 ERA-). Through nine appearances, seven of them starts, Gonzalez is carrying a 4.54 ERA. He’s totaled 41 2/3 innings for a Rockies club that has gone the whole season without lefty Kyle Freeland. Gonzalez has rattled off consecutive quality starts and helped the Rox get through the first two months of the season. The secondary marks aren’t great, but average innings have value — especially in 2021 when teams are so conscientious about their pitchers’ workloads.
  8. Nabil Crismatt, RHP, Padres: Crismatt had just 8 1/3 innings of MLB experience (all with the 2020 Cardinals) when he arrived in Padres camp this spring. He’s more than doubled that total in 2021 already, pitching 17 2/3 innings of 2.55 ERA ball with a hefty 52.2 percent grounder rate. Crismatt is an oddity in today’s game, sitting under 89 mph with a fastball that is only seldom used due to the fact that he throws his changeup at a whopping 46.5 percent clip. It’s weird, but so far — it’s worked.
  9. Anthony Bender, RHP, Marlins: A 26-year-old rookie who never pitched above Double-A with the Royals or Brewers before joining the Marlins on a minor league deal this winter, Bender is sitting 97.4 mph with his heater and has tossed 8 2/3 shutout innings to open his career. He’s whiffed 36.7 percent of his opponents against a 3.3 percent walk rate. Small sample? Sure, but Bender also rattled off 8 1/3 shutout frames during Spring Training, too. Not bad for a guy who posted a 5.48 ERA with the independent American Association’s Milwaukee Milkmen in 2020.
  10. Heath Hembree, RHP, Reds:  After a rough 2020 season, Hembree has bounced back early in 2021. His 4.15 ERA through 13 frames is nothing special, but his strikeout rate is sitting at a career-high 33.3 percent after plummeting in 2020. His 6.3 percent walk rate is a career-best, and his 13.1 percent swinging-strike rate isn’t far off from his peak years in Boston. Hembree’s velocity is also up to 95.2 mph after dipping to 93.9 mph in 2019-20. It’s early, but those are some encouraging indicators.
  11. Zack Littell, RHP, Giants: Littell hasn’t spent much time with the Giants yet, but he’s chucked 10 2/3 innings and held opponents to just one run on eight hits and three walks with nine punchouts. His 94.8 mph average fastball velocity is a career-high, as is his 48.3 percent grounder rate. The former Twins righty only has a year of big league service and could be controllable for several years if he figures it out in San Francisco.
  12. Deolis Guerra, RHP, Athletics: It’s hard to believe Guerra just turned 32, given that he was one of the pieces traded from the Mets to the Twins way back in 2008’s Johan Santana trade. He’s bounced around the league in journeyman style but is enjoying a nice run with the A’s to kick off the ’21 season. In 20 2/3 frames, Guerra has a 3.92 ERA with a pedestrian K-BB% but intriguing levels of weak contact induced.
  13. JT Chargois, RHP, Mariners: Like Littell, Chargois hasn’t seen much time in the bigs yet, but he’s sporting a 9-to-1 K/BB ratio in 8 2/3 innings for Seattle. He’s had multiple chances with the Twins and Dodgers in recent years but never found much consistency. Chargois also mustered only a 5.81 ERA pitching for Japan’s Rakuten Golden Eagles in 2020. Still, it’s a nice start to his 2021 season.
  14. Brad Boxberger, RHP, Brewers: The right-hander, who’ll turn 33 this week, has hurled 17 1/3 innings so far in Milwaukee and pitched to a 4.15 ERA but with a more impressive 17-to-3 K/BB mark. As with many relievers early in a given season, the bulk of the damage against Boxberger came in one appearance (against the Cardinals). He’s been unscored upon in 16 of his 19 outings so far in 2021.
  15. Ervin Santana, RHP, Royals: The Royals love their reunions more than any team in baseball, and Santana is somewhat improbably back to “smelling baseball,” as he likes to say, for a second stint in Kansas City. He’s only allowed four runs in 15 1/3 innings (2.35 ERA), but he’s also only picked up eight strikeouts against four walks. His fastball is sitting 93 mph again after living at 89-90 in 2018-19, but the red flags are plentiful: 13.1 percent strikeout rate, 91 percent strand rate, .213 BABIP, 45 percent opponents’ hard-hit rate.
  16. Paolo Espino, RHP, Nationals: The Nats quietly re-signed the now 34-year-old Espino before the calendar even flipped to November last year. So far, it’s been a worthwhile reunion, as he’s held opponents to four runs on nine hits and a walk with eight strikeouts in 14 innings (2.57 ERA). Espino won’t keep this up if he can’t miss some more bats and/or induce far more grounders, however. He’s currently benefiting from a .175 BABIP and an 83.3 percent strand rate, while his 26.6 percent grounder rate will make it to limit home runs. Still, the Nats have 14 innings of decent results to show for the deal.

As with the position players, some of these strong starts will fade. There are a few at the back of the list that look particularly difficult to sustain, but there also look to be some genuine bargains unearthed among this group. Some will likely result in trades (Kennedy), but it’d make for a fun story to follow should any of the controllable arms (e.g. Bender, Crismatt) ultimately emerge as long-term pieces for the clubs who gave them their best career opportunities to date.

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