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Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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The Astros made a seventh straight appearance in the American League Championship Series. It ended on a sour note, as consecutive home losses to their in-state rivals left them a game shy of another pennant. Houston can bring back much the same roster in hope of returning to the Fall Classic in 2024. They may have a new voice leading the clubhouse.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • RHP Hector Neris holds $8.5MM player option with $1MM buyout**

2024 financial commitments (assuming Neris opts out): $154.533MM
Total future commitments (assuming Neris opts out): $366.533MM

* Mets are responsible for $31.3MM of Verlander’s $43.333MM salary for 2024
** Player option is conditional on Neris passing end-of-season physical

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-tender candidates: None

Free Agents

The Astros claimed a third consecutive division title on the final day of the regular season. They handled the Twins to move to another ALCS. They fell just shy of the World Series, dropping their fourth home game in the ALCS against their intra-state rivals last night.

Dusty Baker was unwilling to speculate about his future in the immediate aftermath of that loss. Britt Ghiroli and Chandler Rome of the Athletic reported that the veteran skipper has been telling people both within and outside the organization that he anticipated stepping away from managing after this year. Baker won’t technically have to resign — he was on a one-year contract anyhow — but the effect would be the same. If he moves on, Houston will need to kick off a managerial search for the first time in four years.

It’s far too early to identify any kind of favorites for that (potential) opening. Bench coach Joe Espada would presumably get a long look after interviewing for various jobs elsewhere. Houston checked in on the likes of Brad Ausmus, Buck Showalter and Jeff Banister during their surprising 2020 search that ultimately landed on Baker. Much has changed in the last four seasons, of course, and it’s unclear if ownership and second-year GM Dana Brown would prioritize previous managerial experience the same way the organization had in the immediate fallout of the sign-stealing punishment.

While the coaching situation is in a state of uncertainty, the front office can keep the roster mostly intact. None of their core players are headed to free agency. Houston will see middle relievers Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek hit the market. Hector Neris could join them by declining an $8.5MM player option — assuming he passes a postseason physical, as expected — in search of another two-year deal.

Maton and Neris were solid pieces in a typically strong bullpen, which finished sixth in the majors in ERA and led MLB with a 26.3% strikeout rate. Stanek didn’t have a great 2023 campaign, although the hard-throwing righty combined for a 2.41 ERA in 123 innings between 2021-22. Their impending free agencies put some pressure on the front office to replenish the bullpen depth.

That could come by simply re-signing one or two of those pitchers. While each has a shot at a multi-year pact, none figures to land an exorbitant annual salary. If they let all three walk, they could identify a target or two in the lower tiers of free agency. Reacquiring Kendall Graveman at the deadline served as preemptive fortification of the 2024 setup core. The veteran joins Rafael Montero and Bryan Abreu as bridges to Ryan Pressly in the ninth inning.

The bullpen is light on left-handed options. That has been true for multiple seasons, though, with the Astros seemingly never placing much stock in building a relief corps they can leverage with traditional platoons. Given how effective the unit has been, they may again not care much about adding a lefty arm. If they did want to add a southpaw, someone like Andrew Chafin, Scott Alexander or Matt Moore could be available on a one-year deal.

Despite a few injuries, Houston doesn’t need to do a whole lot in the starting rotation. Justin Verlander is under contract for another season, with the Mets paying almost three-quarters of the salary to land Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford in the deadline blockbuster. Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier are locked into the second and third spots. Hunter Brown flashed big strikeout potential as a rookie. J.P. France tailed off in the second half but had a good enough rookie showing to compete for a spot at the back end.

This year was a complete loss for Lance McCullers Jr., who never made it past nagging forearm issues. He underwent a season-ending flexor tendon repair in June. The organization will have more clarity about McCullers’ status as the offseason progresses. When announcing the surgery, Dana Brown said the club envisioned the All-Star hurler returning in 2024, although he didn’t specify if McCullers is expected to be ready by Opening Day.

Luis Garcia underwent a Tommy John procedure in May. He’s unlikely to be a factor until the All-Star Break at the earliest. José Urquidy had some injury troubles of his own, missing a couple months with a shoulder strain. The righty didn’t require surgery and finished the season healthy. He had the worst numbers of his career, posting a 5.29 ERA in 63 innings after a sub-4.00 showing in each of his first four campaigns.

Perhaps the Astros are discouraged enough by Urquidy’s performance to put him on the trade market. His projected $3.5MM salary is relatively modest, so they’d find some interest. It may not be compelling enough to subtract a potential back-end arm given the uncertainties regarding Garcia and McCullers. If they deal Urquidy, they could look for a lower-variance veteran free agent in the Kyle Gibson mold to lock in a few innings.

The position player group is mostly established. Martín Maldonado and Michael Brantley are the only free agents. Multiple front office groups and coaching staffs have stuck by Maldonado despite consistently poor offense, pointing to his game-calling ability and work handling the pitching staff. It seems time for the organization to move on, however, as they have a talented younger backstop ready to take a larger role.

Yainer Diaz connected on 23 home runs while hitting .282/.308/.538 in 104 games as a rookie. The 25-year-old had been an excellent offensive player in the minors as well. Prospect evaluators have questioned how effective he’ll be defensively, but he already looks like one of the better bat-first catchers in the majors. Giving him the majority of the reps deepens the lineup.

Korey Lee was sent out in the Graveman deal, leaving the club without much catching depth beyond Diaz. Adding a veteran backup via free agency or small trade seems likely. Maldonado is a solid fit for this kind of role in isolation, although it may be tough for Houston to sell him on a true #2 job after years as their starter. If they want to go in another direction, Yasmani Grandal and Austin Hedges are impending free agents. Jacob Stallings and Christian Bethancourt could be available for a minimal trade return or non-tendered altogether.

Giving Diaz more time behind the plate clears a few at-bats in the designated hitter mix. The Astros have resisted making Yordan Alvarez a full-time DH, continuing to get him some left field reps. With Brantley heading back to free agency, they could bring in a Tommy Pham or Robbie Grossman type to play a rotational role.

Kyle Tucker is locked into right field. Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers and Mauricio Dubón are options in center field. Houston has kicked around the idea of upgrading in center field in the past, potentially moving McCormick to left while using Alvarez more heavily at DH. If they again consider that kind of move, Kevin Kiermaier and Michael A. Taylor are among the free agent options.

The infield is set. José Abreu, Jose Altuve, Jeremy Peña and Alex Bregman are locked in around the dirt. Abreu had a tough start to his three-year free agent deal, as he was one of the game’s worst players in the first two months. The veteran slugger showed signs of life in the second half and had an excellent postseason. While it wasn’t the year that Houston had envisioned, Abreu likely did enough from June onward to solidify his hold on the first base job going into 2024. Dubón and Grae Kessinger are on hand as utility options.

There doesn’t appear to be a ton of short-term payroll room for a marquee free agent pickup. If Neris opts out, Houston still has nearly $155MM in guaranteed commitments for next season. The arbitration class is projected for a combined $38.5MM salary. Aside from arguably Urquidy, everyone in that group is a key part of the roster. That puts them at roughly $193MM before considering outside additions.

That already projects as a franchise-record Opening Day outlay. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Houston has never opened the season with a player payroll higher than $188MM; they entered this year in the $180MM range.

Barring a major spending hike, Houston probably isn’t going to make many headline-grabbing acquisitions. That’s not the worst thing in the world. They’re returning all the main contributors to what was arguably a top five roster. With just modest additions to the bullpen and at catcher, they should project alongside or above the Rangers and Mariners for the lead in the AL West.

The organization has greater longer-term payroll flexibility. Houston has only $75MM on the books for the 2025 season; if Verlander (140 innings) and Pressly (50 appearances) each hit vesting provisions next year, that could tack on another $29.5MM.

That could be important this offseason, as it seems likely the front office will engage key players on extension talks. Altuve is entering the final season of his most recent five-year deal. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggested over the weekend that a new contract for the star second baseman was a priority. Agreeing to a four- or five-year pact running from his age-35 season wouldn’t be without risk but would more or less ensure he spends his entire career in Houston.

Bregman is one year from the open market as well. Tucker and Valdez have two more seasons of arbitration eligibility. Shortly after his hiring, Dana Brown went on record about his desire to get long-term deals done with much of the core. Thus far, only Javier has put pen to paper. There’s likely to be more conversations with all those players, although none of the deals would be cheap. Each should command nine figures, with Tucker and Bregman likely to beat Altuve’s $151MM extension that stands as the largest contract in franchise history.

The course of extension talks is probably more notable than any players the Astros will add this winter. There’s not going to be much turnover outside the manager’s office in the coming months. They’ll get another run with this core group. How much of this team remains after 2024 and ’25 is less certain. The front office should try to continue locking in their top players as they prepare for the second half of the decade.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held an Astros-centric chat. Click here to view the transcript.

Dusty Baker Has Indicated Plan To Step Away From Managing

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The Astros’ season came to an end in disappointing fashion, as Houston dropped an 11-4 contest to the Rangers in Game 7 of the ALCS. That may also be Dusty Baker’s final game as a major league manager.

Britt Ghiroli and Chandler Rome of the Athletic report that Baker has recently told people within and outside the Houston organization that this would be his final season. The 74-year-old has not publicly announced his retirement. Asked about his plans postgame, Baker said he “doesn’t know” and “(hasn’t) had time to think about (his) future” (relayed by Mark Berman of Fox 26).

Baker has been at the helm in Houston for four seasons. The Astros hired him going into 2020 in the wake of the sign-stealing scandal which led to A.J. Hinch’s dismissal. His stint in Houston has consisted of a series of one-year contracts. Baker first signed a one-year deal with a team option, which the club exercised. He subsequently inked one-year deals in the immediate aftermath of each of the past two seasons. Baker will be out of contract again this winter.

That run hasn’t been without controversy, particularly in 2022. Baker reportedly clashed with former general manager James Click, part of some organizational discord that led owner Jim Crane to move on from Click despite incredible on-field results. Reports indicated that Baker and Crane weren’t without their own disagreements, although the owner stuck with the longtime manager.

While one can quibble with any manager’s lineup or bullpen decisions, Houston’s results under Baker have been excellent. The team has advanced at least as far as the ALCS in all four seasons. While they were below .500 in the shortened 2020 regular season, they topped 90 wins while winning the AL West in all three full campaigns. The highlight, of course, was a 106-win showing in 2022 that culminated in the franchise’s second World Series title.

The Astros have gone 320-226 (58.6% win percentage) since the start of 2020. Baker’s clubs have won 54% of their regular season contests over his 26-year career. He has also been at the helm of the Giants, Cubs, Reds and Nationals since landing his first managerial job at age 44 in 1993. His 2,183 victories rank seventh in major league history, tops among active managers. Aside from Baker, Bruce Bochy and Terry Francona — all of whom have remained active through this year — everyone in the top 14 on the wins leaderboard has been enshrined in the Hall of Fame. It seems only a matter of time before Baker joins that class, particularly since last year’s title (and third career pennant) checked the final box on his résumé.

Ghiroli and Rome suggest that Baker could look to stay involved in MLB while taking on a less demanding position, potentially in an advisory or special assistant capacity. If he steps away from managing, the Astros will become the fifth team with a vacancy.

Houston bench coach Joe Espada has gotten plenty of attention in managerial searches around the league over the past few years and has yet to land his first opportunity. While it’s far too early in the process for the Astros to have identified any kind of frontrunner, it stands to reason the club would consider Espada if they need to embark on a hiring process of their own.

Bryan Abreu To Serve Two-Game Suspension In 2024

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Major League Baseball announced the ruling of the appellate hearing for Astros reliever Bryan Abreu. While the two-game suspension for hitting Adolis García with a pitch has been upheld, the right-hander is allowed to postpone the ban until the start of the 2024 regular season.

Former big leaguer Adam Jones first reported that Abreu’s suspension would be delayed on Foul Territory this afternoon. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 reports that the right-hander’s fine was also reduced (X link).

Abreu hit García with a 99 MPH fastball in the bottom of the eighth inning of Game 5. García had hit a go-ahead, three-run homer in his previous at-bat. After being plunked, the Rangers slugger confronted Houston catcher Martín Maldonado, leading both dugouts to empty. Abreu was ejected for what the umpiring crew (and subsequently MLB) determined was an intentional hit-by-pitch. García was thrown out of the game for arguing with Maldonado, while Houston skipper Dusty Baker was also tossed after he vehemently argued Abreu’s ejection. Houston came back to win the game on Jose Altuve’s homer in the ninth.

The pitcher was the only player suspended for the incident. Abreu’s appeal allowed him to pitch last night. Baker called upon him for one inning in an eventual 9-2 loss. Since he only tossed 20 pitches, he’ll be available for tonight’s Game 7. Abreu pitched to a 1.75 ERA in 72 regular season innings. He has tossed 7 1/3 frames of two-run ball this October.

Astros Hoping To Sign Jose Altuve To New Extension

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With Jose Altuve again starring in a deep Astros postseason run, it isn’t any surprise that the club wants to retain its longtime star.  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that Houston wants to keep Altuve in the fold for the rest of his career, and the time for negotiating is nearing, as 2024 is the final year of the second baseman’s current contract.

“The Astros privately say their focus is squarely on Altuve,” Nightengale writes, which is perhaps notable simply because Altuve isn’t the only prominent Houston player approaching the end of his deal.  Alex Bregman will also be a free agent after the 2024 season, and Ryan Pressly might also hit the open market since he and the Astros share a $14MM mutual option for 2025 (though this option vests if Pressly makes at least 50 appearances in 2024).  Justin Verlander could also be a free agent if he doesn’t pitch at least 140 innings next season, but if he does hit that threshold, he’ll gain a $35MM player option for 2025 that he might well choose to exercise for what would be his age-42 season.

Of course, nothing is stopping the Astros from also exploring extensions with any of these other players.  However, it could be that Altuve is seen as a particular priority given his status as a franchise icon.  The story of Altuve’s rise from obscure international prospect to cornerstone player has been well-documented, and there isn’t much indication that Altuve is slowing down in his age-33 season.  Though he was limited to 90 games in 2023 due to a broken thumb and an oblique strain, Altuve still hit .311/.393/.522 over 410 plate appearances during the regular season, and he has a .970 OPS over 24 PA in the first five games of the ALCS.

Altuve’s current deal overwrote the last two years of his previous extension with the Astros, and guaranteed him $151MM over the course of the 2020-24 seasons.  Another five-year extension that began with the 2025 season would therefore run through Altuve’s age-39 season, and quite possibly the end of his career.

Estimating a dollar figure for a hypothetical Altuve extension is an interesting exercise, considering that Altuve is represented by the Boras Corporation (who also handled the second baseman’s previous deal).  The majority of Scott Boras clients generally head to free agency to let the open market determine their earnings, and Altuve’s performance certainly would seem to still merit a hefty salary even through his mid-to-late 30’s.  That said, it also seems plausible that Altuve might at least consider some level of hometown discount, thus freeing some more money for the Astros to keep the core together.  Besides Bregman, Pressly, and Verlander, there is also the trio of Framber Valdez, Kyle Tucker, and Jose Urquidy all nearing free agency once their arbitration eligibility is up following the 2025 campaign.

The Astros have surpassed the luxury tax threshold only once (in 2020) in franchise history, as Houston has been able to sustain its run of success while keeping their payroll in relative check.  While frequently landing within the top 10 of Opening Day payrolls, Houston ranked only 14th in spending at the start of this season.  The Astros have been willing to let some stars walk, such as Carlos Correa after the 2021 season or Verlander last winter (before Verlander was re-acquired from the Mets at the trade deadline).

Other extensions have also played a role in the Astros’ budget management, as the team was proactive in locking up some young stars relatively early in their careers.  Bregman was signed to a five-year/$100MM extension, Yordan Alvarez to a six-year/$118MM extension, and Cristian Javier to a five-year/$64MM long-term pact.  Alvarez, Javier, and Lance McCullers Jr. are the only Astros players on the books beyond the 2025 season.

Bryan Abreu Suspended Following Benches-Clearing Incident

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6:16PM: Abreu has officially appealed his suspension, and will thus be available to pitch in Game 6 tonight, as per The Athletic’s Chandler Rome and other reporters.  The appeal hearing will take place tomorrow in advance of a possible Game 7.

TODAY, 11:42am: Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Abreu has not yet officially appealed his two-game suspension. If appealed, the suspension would begin immediately following a settlement with the players’ union or the decision being upheld during a hearing. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale had previously reported that Abreu had officially appealed his suspension, and that a hearing would be scheduled for tomorrow prior to a hypothetical Game 7.

Oct 21, 5:31pm: As noted by Alden Gonzalez of ESPN, the current CBA stipulates that all appeals of postseason suspensions must be settled within 48 hours. That clause would appear to indicate that Abreu will be forced to serve the suspension during the postseason unless the suspension is overturned on appeal.

Oct 21, 5:00pm: Major League Baseball announced this evening that Astros right-hander Bryan Abreu has been suspended for two games and fined an undisclosed amount for his role in last night’s benches-clearing skirmish between the Astros and the Rangers last night. Astros right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. and manager Dusty Baker were both fined for their roles in the incident, as was Rangers outfielder Adolis Garcia and right-hander Matt Bush. Both McCullers and Bush will be prohibited from sitting on their club’s bench for the remainder of the ALCS.

Garcia, 30, walked out of the batter’s box slowly after hitting a go-ahead, three-run homer off of Houston ace Justin Verlander. When Garcia returned to the plate during the eighth inning, he was struck on the shoulder by a fastball from Abreu. Garcia dropped his bat and confronted Astros catcher Martin Maldonado about the hit-by-pitch, leading the benches to clear. Abreu, Garcia, and Baker were all ejected during the incident, and the Astros went on to the the game 5-4 after second baseman Jose Altuve hit a go-ahead, three-run homer of his own in the ninth inning.

As discussed by MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, neither side was pleased with the handling of the situation following the game. Abreu and other Astros players believing a warning should have been issued rather than an ejection, while Rangers manager Bruce Bochy was displeased with the twelve-minute delay following the incident. Bochy believes the delay could have impacted Texas righty Jose Leclerc, who surrendered the aforementioned game-winning homer to Altuve following the incident.

If Abreu elects not to appeal, he would miss the remainder of the ALCS, and potentially the first game of the World Series if the Astros win Game 6 tomorrow night. Should Abreu appeal, the suspension would be put on hold until the appeal is resolved. It’s not yet clear if Abreu intends to appeal the commissioner’s office’s decision, though ESPN’s Jeff Passan indicates that Abreu is “expected” to appeal and that if he does so, any suspension would likely be postponed until the 2024 campaign.

Abreu has been a key reliever for the Astros all season, with a 1.75 ERA and a 34.8% strikeout rate in 72 innings of work this year. That dominance has carried over to the postseason, where Abreu has 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball across seven appearances, striking out eleven while walking just two.

Pete Ladd Passes Away

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Former big leaguer Pete Ladd has passed away following a battle with cancer, per an announcement by the Brewers. The Portland, Maine resident was 67 years old.

“We learned today of the passing of Pete Ladd, a key member of the great Brewers teams of the early 1980s,” a statement from the club read, “Pete was a man with a big personality and an even bigger heart. Our thoughts and condolences go to his family.”

A 25th-round pick in the 1977 draft, Ladd was selected by the Red Sox as a relief pitcher and worked through the minors in that role for two seasons before making his big league with the Astros in 1979. Though his initial cup of coffee lasted just 12 1/3 innings of work, Ladd impressed in his limited time with a 2.92 ERA that was 25% better than league average at the time. Ladd wouldn’t appear again in the majors until the 1982 season, when he pitched in 16 regular season games for the Brewers, with a 4.00 ERA in 18 innings of work.

Ladd was tapped to serve as Milwaukee’s closer during the 1982 season due to an injury sustained by Hall of Fame relief arm Rollie Fingers. The right-hander was excellent while filling in for Fingers, pitching 3 1/3 scoreless innings against the Angels during the ALCS and striking out five en route to the Brewers’ first and to this point only World Series appearance in franchise history. Ladd also recorded two outs in the World Series against the Cardinals, working around a hit and two walks to avoid giving up a run during the appearance.

Following the club’s World Series run in 1982, Ladd would remain with the Brewers for three more seasons. That included the 1983 campaign, which turned out to be the best of Ladd’s career. He posted a 2.55 ERA, 48% better than league average for the day by measure of ERA+, and a 2.92 FIP in 49 1/3 innings (44 appearances) while striking out 21.1% of batters faced, though Milwaukee unfortunately missed the postseason that year after winning 87 games and finishing fifth in the AL East.

Ladd, then 29, would wrap up his big league career in Seattle after departing the Brewers following the 1985 season. He pitched well for the Mariners in 1986, with a better-than-average 3.82 ERA in 70 2/3 innings of work across 52 appearances. While he continued his playing career with the Dodgers in 1987, he struggled at the Triple-A level and didn’t crack the club’s big league roster, leading him to retirement following the 1987 season. In all, Ladd appeared in 205 games during his six-year MLB career, recording 17 wins, 39 saves, and 209 strikeouts in 287 innings of work with a career ERA of 4.14.

We at MLB Trade Rumors extend our condolences to Ladd’s family, friends, fans and former teammates.

AL Notes: Abreu, DiPuglia, McKinstry

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A bad back might’ve saved Jose Abreu’s season, as the first baseman’s debut season in Houston didn’t start to turn around until a two-week stint on the injured list in August.  Abreu was batting only .234/.291/.343 in 464 plate appearances prior to the IL trip, yet as Astros hitting coach Alex Cinton told ESPN’s Buster Olney, Abreu “was a different guy” after returning to action.  Abreu improved to .248/.315/.530 with eight home runs over 130 PA in the rest of the regular season, and he has a .962 OPS and four homers over 39 PA during Houston’s postseason run.

Beyond just letting his back heal, the IL trip also seemed to serve as a mental reset for Abreu after the grind of his first four-plus months.  After signing a three-year, $58.5MM contract with Houston last winter, Abreu was perhaps too eager to contribute to his new team.  Olney writes that “Cintron began to view Abreu’s relentless diligence as a problem.  As Abreu relentlessly took batting practice, his coaches believed, he was sapping his energy day after day — and likely prolonging his slump.”  Fortunately for all parties, Abreu has found his form at the ideal time for an Astros team that is one victory away from a return trip the World Series.

More from around the American League….

  • Former Nationals assistant GM Johnny DiPuglia is interviewing with the Rays about a front office job, according to reporter Francys Romero (via X).  DiPuglia had been working as Washington’s international scouting director since 2009 and assistant GM since 2020 before he resigned from the organization in September, reportedly due to the Nationals’ desire to reduce his salary.  It isn’t surprising that the Rays (and presumably other teams) have interest in hiring DiPuglia, who has over 30 years of experience of scouting and front office experience, and a rich history of success in finding and developing Latin American talent.
  • Zach McKinstry is planning “to live in the weight room” this offseason to improve his core strength, the Tigers utilityman tells Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.  This represents a departure from last winter, when McKinstry was rehabbing from a torn groin suffered in August 2022, though he played through the injury without going on the IL.  The interruption to his usual offseason routine may have been a reason behind McKinstry’s underwhelming .231/.302/.351 slash line over 518 PA last season, not to mention the increased workload as a whole.  McKinstry had played in only 121 MLB games and received 364 PA from 2020-22 as a member of the Dodgers and Cubs before taking on a regular role with Detroit in a variety of different positions.  Petzold notes that McKinstry is out of minor league options, so there’s less of a margin for error as the uilityman will try to retain his spot as a multi-positional option.  “I’ll try to get my rotational strength a little bit stronger.  Hopefully, it can last me a little bit longer throughout the whole season, not just one month, two months or three months,” McKinstry said.

The Opener: NLCS, ALCS, Scherzer

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With a couple of postseason games on the docket, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball today:

1. NLCS Game 3:

After a rough couple of games at Citizens Bank Park, the Diamondbacks are headed home to Chase Field. The change of scenery could be just what they need to regain their momentum and slow down the red-hot Phillies. Across the regular season and the playoffs, Philadelphia has gone 55-32 (.632) at home this season. However, they’ve been far more vulnerable on the road, with a 42-41 (.506) record.

The rookie Brandon Pfaadt will start for Arizona, while Ranger Suárez takes the hill for Philadelphia. Pfaadt has looked capable in his first two postseason outings, pitching to a 3.86 ERA in seven innings of work. Suárez, however, is starting to look like a playoff legend in the making, with a career 1.16 ERA in 23 1/3 innings over the past two postseasons.

While D-backs manager Torey Lovullo has kept Pfaadt on a short leash thus far, he might have to ride his no. 3 starter a little harder this time around. The team is planning a bullpen game for Game 4, so Lovullo would surely like to give his relievers a little rest today. At the same time, he will need to be aggressive to avoid putting his team in a 3-0 hole. It will be a difficult balancing act for the longtime Diamondbacks skipper.

First pitch is set for 4:07 pm CT.

2. ALCS Game 4:

Following a momentum-shifting 8-5 victory in Game 3, the Astros will look to even up the series with the Rangers tonight at Globe Life Field. Meanwhile, the Rangers will look to bounce back after suffering their first loss of the postseason.

Andrew Heaney will take the mound for Texas against José Urquidy of Houston in a battle between two starters who have moved back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen this season. Neither looked as sharp in 2023 as he did the year before, but both pitched well in their first postseason outings. Heaney held the Orioles to one run in 3 2/3 innings in Game 1 of the ALDS, while Urquidy gave the Astros 5 2/3 innings of two-run ball in a series-clinching Game 4 victory over the Twins.

The game begins at 7:03 pm CT.

3. Scherzer struggles in his return:

Max Scherzer wasn’t exactly sharp in his return to the mound on Wednesday, giving up five runs in four innings against the Astros. The veteran starter had not pitched in over a month, and he made a remarkably speedy return from a teres major strain, so one can hardly blame him for looking a little rusty. Still, the Rangers need more from the eight-time All-Star if they’re going to hand him the ball in a potential ALCS Game 7.

On a positive note, manager Bruce Bochy had enough confidence in Scherzer to let him finish four innings despite his struggles. After the game, Scherzer told reporters (including Julia Kreuz of MLB.com) that his arm felt “really good” and that it “responded well.” However, the Rangers will surely keep close tabs on the future Hall of Famer in the coming days, before Bochy makes any decisions about his potential Game 7 starter.

Coaching Notes: Counsell, Astros, Rays

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Brewers manager Craig Counsell just wrapped up the final year of his contract in Milwaukee, prompting widespread speculation that he could depart his hometown team after nine years in the club’s dugout. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported this evening that the Mets have “a reasonable chance” of prying Counsell away from his longtime team, though Heyman added that a source connected to the Brewers indicated that the organization believes he’ll remain with the team as long as he gets paid “what he believes is fair.”

Heyman adds that negotiations between Counsell and the Brewers have seemingly not yet progressed at this point, though as previously reported, Counsell won’t have the option to speak to other teams until November. While Counsell, who lives year-round with his family in the suburbs of Milwaukee, has strong ties to both the are and the Brewers organization, Heyman notes that the Mets have potential advantages in newly-hired president of baseball operations David Stearns and, perhaps more importantly, the reported ability to offer Counsell a significant raise; Heyman relays that a source suggested the Mets could offer Counsell double his 2023 salary with Milwaukee of $3.5MM.

A consensus top-tier manager in today’s game, Counsell would surely attract interest from other clubs if he was willing to depart Milwaukee; the Guardians, Giants, and Angels all have managerial openings of their own. Whether Counsell eventually ends up staying with the Brewers, headed to the Mets, or somewhere else entirely, Heyman notes the Mets are still proceeding with their managerial search in order to ensure they have options outside of Counsell.

More coaching notes from around the game…

  • One candidate for the Mets Heyman floats is Astros manager Dusty Baker, though his connection of Baker and Queens appears to be purely speculative. That said, Heyman does suggest that Baker is “frustrated” over disputes with the front office regarding analytics. Baker’s decision to use Martin Maldonado as the club’s primary catcher rather than rookie Yainer Diaz as an example of a situation where GM Dana Brown’s front office has butted heads with the dugout. Baker, for his part, has managed in Houston for four seasons on a series of one-year pacts and was noncommittal regarding whether he planned to manage beyond 2023 when asked earlier this year. If the Astros do go in another direction for the manager’s chair after this season, Heyman speculates that bench coach and longtime managerial candidate Joe Espada would be a “logical replacement” for Baker in the Houston dugout.
  • The Rays announced today that first base coach Chris Prieto and assistant hitting coach Dan DeMent will not return to the club’s coaching staff for the 2024 season. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times adds that the Rays are expected to consider both internal and external candidates as they look to replace Prieto, though DeMent will not be replaced on the staff. Topkin notes that with hitting coach Chad Mottola and assistant hitting coach Brady North already in place, the Rays felt a third hitting coach “proved unwieldy.” The only other change in the club’s coaching staff Topkin relays as expected is the departure of process and analytics coach Jonathan Erlichman, who Topkin adds is moving to another position in the organization, though that position has not yet been disclosed.

Texas Notes: deGrom, Scherzer, Tucker, Verlander

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While the Rangers have gone 7-0 so far through the postseason, ace right-hander Jacob deGrom has been forced to watch his club’s success from home after undergoing Tommy John surgery back in June. The long time Mets righty sat down with Joel Sherman of the New York Post recently to discuss his recovery process four months removed from the surgery.

Fortunately, it appears that deGrom’s rehab process is going rather well. A typical timeline for a pitcher in deGrom’s situation would be somewhere between 14 and 18 months before returning to a big league mound but deGrom expressed optimism that he could return to the Rangers at the earlier end of that window, with August 2024 as a stated goal. Of course, there’s a long road ahead to reach that point, though Sherman notes that deGrom has regained full range of motion at this point and will be able to return to throwing shortly after the new year, with a mound in sight come Spring Training.

If deGrom is indeed healthy and effective come the stretch run in 2024, he’d surely provide a massive boost to a Rangers club that dominated for much of the 2023 regular season and has seemingly found a second wind during the postseason in spite of a difficult stretch run that saw the club slow to a 38-33 record in the second half this season. Ignoring any possible offseason additions, deGrom would return to a 2024 rotation group that projects to feature former Mets co-ace Max Scherzer, veterans Nathan Eovaldi and Jon Gray, southpaw Andrew Heaney, and right-hander Dane Dunning. When on the mound for the Rangers this year, deGrom was nothing short of excellent with a 2.67 ERA and 1.54 FIP across six starts. His current contract runs through the end of the 2027 season, with a 2028 club option that triggered as a result of him undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier this year.

More from around the state of Texas…

  • Sticking with the Rangers, manager Bruce Bochy spoke to reporters this afternoon regarding tomorrow’s Game 3 of the ALCS, where Scherzer is expected to take the mound in a competitive setting for the first time in over a month due to a teres major strain. While Bochy didn’t specify whether or not Scherzer would have any sort of limitations on him headed into tomorrow’s game, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic relayed that Bochy referred to 70 pitches as a “baseline” for Scherzer. That’s in line with his previously reported 68-pitch simulated game prior to the ALCS. If Scherzer is indeed limited in some capacity during tomorrow’s game, the Rangers have plenty of long relief options available to them, including Cody Bradford and Martin Perez.
  • Meanwhile, Astros manager Dusty Baker spoke to reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) this afternoon regarding the club’s plans for the remainder of the ALCS, in which they trail their division rival 0-2. Baker noted that he’s spoken to outfielder Kyle Tucker about a potential move down the batting order, though he emphasized that such a move would be temporary. It’s been a rough postseason for Tucker, as the 26-year-old has gone hitless in the ALCS so far after slashing just .143/.294/.214 in 17 trips to the plate against the Twins during the ALDS. Baker did not, however, indicate whether or not the club is considering turning to veteran ace and future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander on short rest for Game 4, saying that the club hasn’t discussed the possibility yet. Verlander would be on three days of rest for Game 4, a situation in which the Astros have used him in the playoffs before. As Rome notes, Verlander struggled against the Rays in Game 4 of the ALDS back in 2019 on three days of rest, allowing four runs in 3 2/3 innings of work.
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