Archives for January 2013

Cubs Sign Edwin Jackson

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 2, 2013 at 11:55am CDT

The Cubs have officially signed Edwin Jackson, the team announced. It's a four-year contract worth $52MM, and it does not include a no-trade clause. Jackson is a Legacy Sports Group client.

The Cubs have worked exceptionally aggressively to add free agent starting pitching this offseason. They already signed Scott Feldman, Scott Baker and Carlos Villanueva to join a rotation led by Matt Garza and Jeff Samardzija. Travis Wood also has considerable experience starting, but he might now project as a reliever.

None of the Cubs' additions will cost the team a future draft pick. The Nationals declined to make Jackson a qualifying offer after the season, which means he wasn’t linked to draft pick compensation. As MLBTR's Transaction Tracker shows, Jackson's deal represents the largest free agent contract the Cubs have agreed to under GM Jed Hoyer.

Jackson joins his eighth MLB team and his seventh club since 2008. The 29-year-old spent the 2012 season with the Nationals, posting a 4.03 ERA with 8.0 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 47.3% ground ball rate in 189 2/3 regular season innings. He reached the 180-inning plateau for the fifth consecutive season with an average fastball velocity of 93.5 mph.

Jackson joined Legacy Sports in July, leaving the Boras Corporation. Last winter Jackson obtained a one-year, $11MM contract to play in Washington. One year later, the Indians, Rangers and Padres were among the teams with interest in Jackson.

Jackson ranked seventh on MLBTR’s list of top 50 free agents. As MLBTR's Free Agent Tracker shows, Kyle Lohse and Shaun Marcum are among the top free agent starters remaining.

Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com first reported the agreement while Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com added details (Twitter links). Mike Axisa contributed to this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arbitration Breakdown: Buster Posey

By Matt Swartz | January 2, 2013 at 11:20am CDT

Buster Posey is eligible for arbitration for the first time in 2013, conveniently right after a successful MVP campaign. Posey also won the batting title in 2012, along with a Rookie of the Year Award in 2010. Despite the MVP, Posey is not the typical slugger who gets handsomely rewarded compared to other players in arbitration. He "only" had 24 home runs and 103 RBI in 2012, though he did hit .336 in 610 plate appearances. Due to an injury in 2011 and the fact that Posey reaches arbitration as a super two, he only had 645 plate appearances going into his platform season along with a .294 average, 22 home runs, and 88 runs batted in. What makes Posey’s situation unique is that he has a healthier trophy case than anyone else to reach arbitration in recent years, but fewer plate appearances going into his platform year than most others to get larger salaries. Even though the only other player in the last six years to have an MVP and a ROY before his first year of arbitration (Ryan Howard) earned $10MM, there was no player with as few career plate appearances as Posey to ever earn more than $3.75MM. My model has the CAA client well between these two extremes, projected to earn $5.9MM.

Posey figures to earn far less than Ryan Howard’s $10MM for several reasons. Not only did Howard have 1094 previous plate appearances, but he was also a power hitter coming off a 47 home run season. Power numbers matter to panels a lot more than other skills, so Posey will not be able to argue for more than Howard’s $10MM. There are two other players in the last six years to have MVP awards before reaching arbitration, Joey Votto (who got $8MM in 2011) and Justin Morneau ($4.5MM in 2007). Votto was coming off a .324 average, 37 home runs, and 113 runs batted in 648 plate appearances and also had 1222 PA before his platform season, in which he accumulated 53 HR, 185 RBIs, and hit .310. Votto also had 16 stolen bases in his platform year and 12 in previous seasons, while Posey is not a base stealer. This all combines to suggest Posey will fall short of Votto’s $8MM. Morneau’s $4.5MM seems low. Firstly, the fact that it is now a comparable that is over six years old makes it unlikely to be a fair comparison, but Morneau also only had a .248 average going into his platform year, making his .321/34/130 performance that year seem more anomalous. Posey, on the other hand, had won Rookie of the Year during his pre-platform tenure.

In more common cases, Posey would be more likely to be compared to other catchers. However, he has a clearly superior case than any of the catchers with whom he would be compared. The largest first-time arbitration award given to a catcher went to Russell Martin in 2009 at $3.9MM. Martin was only coming off a .280/13/69 platform season (though with 18 SB) in 650 plate appearances , although he did have 1088 PA prior to his platform season. The lack of an MVP award suggests that Martin’s salary is a very obvious floor for Posey. Joe Mauer’s 2007 case might be the most similar to Posey, although he did not have an MVP award. However, Mauer did have a batting title in 2006, hitting .347 in 608 plate appearances , and also has a pre-platform season injury in common with Posey. Mauer had just 676 plate appearances before his platform season, similar to Posey’s 645. Mauer ended up signing a multi-year deal in which he earned $3.75MM in 2007, but before that, Mauer and the Twins had exchanged figures of $3.3 and $4.5MM, so $3.75MM seems like they settled effectively in the middle and then added a few years on. Of course, this case is probably “stale” and isn’t a great comparison for Posey, but it also suggests that Posey should successfully finish with well over $4MM. No catchers other than Martin and Mauer have gotten more than $2.15MM in the last six years, so those two would be the only plausible comparisons.

Expanding beyond catchers and MVPs, I looked through the last six years to find anyone who had 20 HR, 80 RBI, and a .300 average, regardless of whether they had won any awards or what position they played. Only one player had more than $4.84MM: Miguel Cabrera at $7.4MM in 2007. Obviously, that case is now stale but it does provide a useful comparison to Posey. Cabrera had just hit .339/26/114 in 676 plate appearances , while he had a .300 average entering his platform season in 1067 PA, along with 78 HR and 290 RBI. The platform season looks very similar season to Posey’s, while the previous seasons look much better. On top of that, Cabrera already had 3 years and 101 days of service time by his first year of arbitration, compared with Posey’s 2 years and 161 days. Further, even though Cabrera didn’t have an MVP award yet, he did have three all-star appearances already and had back-to-back fifth place finishes in MVP races. Posey will probably earn less than Cabrera’s $7.4MM. The other guys on the list of .300/20/80 first-time eligibles included Chase Utley who got $4.84MM in 2007 as part of a multi-year deal and Garrett Atkins who got $4.46MM in 2008. More recently, Shin-Soo Choo got $3.975MM in 2011. All three players seem to have inferior cases to Posey’s, which provides further reason to expect Posey to obtain at least $5MM.

Other elite players to get large deals in recent years include Prince Fielder’s $7.5MM, Hanley Ramirez’s $5.55MM in 2009 (both as part of multi-year deals), and Dan Uggla’s $5.35MM in 2009. Uggla had 1411 plate appearances prior to his platform season, but his .260/32/92 platform season suggests Posey should be able to top him. Getting even further from plausible comparables, we can at least look at pitchers who got big awards—the only pitchers to get over $5MM were Lincecum and Kershaw ($9 and $7.75MM as part of multi-year deals), and relievers Jonathan Papelbon and Bobby Jenks ($6.25 and $5.6MM as one-year deals in 2009). These pitchers won't come up as comps in Posey's case.

Posey’s case is clearly unique. It seems like anything between $4.5 and $7.4MM is possible, and my model coincidentally ends up splitting the difference almost exactly at $5.9MM. I think Uggla’s $5.35MM is too low, but not by much, so something in the $6MM range makes sense for Posey.

Mets Sign Andrew Brown

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 2, 2013 at 10:01am CDT

The Mets announced that they signed outfielder Andrew Brown to a minor league contract that includes an invitation to MLB Spring Training (Twitter link).

Brown made his MLB with the 2011 Cardinals before the Rockies claimed him off of waivers from St. Louis. The 28-year-old spent part of the 2012 season with the Rockies, appearing in 46 games as a corner outfielder. Brown, a right-handed hitter, posted a .232/.302/.429 batting line with five home runs in 126 plate appearances with the Rockies this past season. He also appeared in 100 games at Triple-A, posting a .308/.364/.597 batting line with 24 home runs and 33 doubles. However, Colorado granted him free agency in November.

Checking In On Teams In Need Of Pitching

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 2, 2013 at 9:34am CDT

MLBTR’s Zach Links recently checked in on some of baseball’s lowest scoring offenses, noting that clubs such as the Dodgers and Mariners could score more often in 2013 thanks to some of their recent moves. Let’s now turn from run scoring to run prevention and check in on the teams that allowed the most runs in 2012.

Seven teams — the Rockies, Indians, Twins, Red Sox, Astros, Blue Jays and Cubs — posted team ERAs of 4.50 or more this past season, and each club allowed at least 750 runs in total. We'll take a look at those bottom seven teams and see what they've done to improve their pitching and defense so far this offseason. Team name links go to a summary of the moves on MLBTR's Transaction Tracker and 2012 runs allowed totals are in parentheses. For reference, the average MLB team allowed 701 runs this past season.

Rockies (890 runs allowed, 5.22 team ERA) – Jeff Francis, who led the 2012 Rockies with 113 innings pitched, re-signed on a one-year deal. Jorge De La Rosa exercised his player option and Colorado traded for reliever Wilton Lopez. Dan O’Dowd and Bill Geivett must do more to address their run prevention issues in the coming months, or they’ll risk a similarly poor showing in 2013.

Indians (845 runs allowed, 4.78 team ERA) – The Indians started the offseason by exercising Ubaldo Jimenez's 2013 option, and they haven't stopped there. GM Chris Antonetti acquired pitching prospect Trevor Bauer from Arizona along with relievers Matt Albers and Bryan Shaw. They have since agreed to terms with Brett Myers, who projects as a starter in Cleveland.

Twins (832 runs allowed, 4.77 team ERA) – GM Terry Ryan has re-worked his team's pitching staff, trading for Alex Meyer and Vance Worley and signing Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey and Rich Harden. The Twins also re-signed a number of pitchers to minor league deals, creating depth. However, the Twins parted with Ben Revere and Denard Span to upgrade their pitching, which creates questions about Minnesota's outfield defense.

Red Sox (806 runs allowed, 4.70 team ERA) – The Red Sox upgraded their rotation by signing Ryan Dempster to a two-year contract. They've also addressed their bullpen, trading for Joel Hanrahan and signing Koji Uehara to a one-year contract. On defense, Shane Victorino will play right field, but defensive standout Jose Iglesias no longer projects as a starter and it looks as though Mike Napoli will replace the sure-handed combination of Adrian Gonzalez and James Loney at first base.

Astros (794 runs allowed, 4.56 team ERA) – The Astros have made some relatively low-profile changes to their pitching staff as they prepare for their first season in the American League. The club acquired Alex White for Wilton Lopez, claimed Philip Humber off of waivers, traded for John Ely, and signed reliever Jose Veras to a one-year deal. At this point it looks as though Houston will have trouble preventing runs again in 2013.

Blue Jays (784 runs allowed, 4.64 team ERA) – The Toronto front office overhauled a starting rotation that lacked depth in 2012. Defending Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey joins newcomers Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle in a rotation that now looks like a strength instead of a major weakness. GM Alex Anthopoulos also traded for Esmil Rogers and added numerous others via waiver claims and minor league signings. The future of Darren Oliver still has to be determined, but other than that Toronto's pitching staff seems essentially set.

Cubs (759 runs allowed, 4.51 team ERA) - The Cubs have upgraded their rotation in a meaningful way, adding Edwin Jackson, Scott Feldman, Carlos Villanueva and Scott Baker on free agent contracts. They also retained free agent Shawn Camp and signed right-hander Kyuji Fujikawa and left-hander Hisanori Takahashi. Chicago’s pitching staff could be much stronger in 2013.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Saunders, Reds, Yankees, Hamilton

By Zachary Links | January 1, 2013 at 10:34pm CDT

Congratulations to our own Ben Nicholson-Smith on being named one of the 100 most influential Canadians in baseball by Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun for the second year in a row. In addition to BN-S, fellow MLBTR writers Luke Adams (also of HoopsRumors) and Mark Polishuk earned honorable mention for their stellar work. Here’s tonight’s look around baseball..

Even though many seem to feel getting a hitter is the bigger priority for the Orioles right now, Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com would like to see the O’s continue their pursuit of Joe Saunders and get involved with Shaun Marcum.
Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (Insider sub. req’d) looked at the biggest risks taken by MLB teams this offseason. The Reds made the list for their decision to put the newly-acquired Shin-Soo Choo in center field and so did the Yankees for letting Russell Martin and Nick Swisher go elsewhere while signing Ichiro Suzuki and Kevin Youkilis who are well past their primes. Bowden also suggests that the Tigers should get a closer with experience like Brian Wilson to support rookie Bruce Rondon.
Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com looks at ten questions facing the Angels in 2013, including the issue of whether Josh Hamilton is worth the $125MM contract he received this winter. It’ll take longer than one year to fully answer that question, but in the short-term the Halos would like to see the slugger stay healthy.
The Dodgers are full of promise in 2013 but an awful lot happened in the last year and change to put them in that position, notes Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com. The ball started rolling in November of 2011 when Frank McCourt finally agreed to sell the team.

Indians Have Talked With Shaun Marcum

By Zachary Links | January 1, 2013 at 9:44pm CDT

The Indians have had dialogue with free agent starter Shaun Marcum, a source tells Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (on Twitter). However, it’s not yet clear how today’s signing of Brett Myers will impact their pursuit of Marcum (Twitter link).

Marcum, ranked No. 19 on Tim Dierkes’ list of Top 50 Free Agents, has also received interest from the Mets, Twins, Padres, and Cubs. The 32-year-old missed a good chunk of last season thanks to shoulder stiffness at the beginning of the year and later on had elbow tightness which cost him more than two months. In 21 starts, Marcum posted a 3.70 ERA with 7.9 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 for the Brewers.

Arbitration Breakdown: David Price

By Matt Swartz | January 1, 2013 at 5:28pm CDT

Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors (read more about it here), but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. To see projected salaries for all arbitration eligible players, click here. To follow all the deals in advance of the January 18th exchange of figures, bookmark our arbitration tracker.

I’ll start by looking at the reigning American League Cy Young, David Price. This post was written before Price's agreement was announced today, so we decided to publish before his salary is announced. My model predicts that Price will earn $9.5MM in arbitration in 2013, a $5.15MM raise over his 2012 salary. Price earned $4.35MM last season while compiling a 20-5 record, thanks to a 2.56 ERA in 211 innings. Price and the Rays presumably were looking for comparable players in the pitcher’s service class—second-time arbitration eligible starting pitchers. There are very few players like Price, so they needed to stretch the criteria to find eligible players. Cy Young Awards are very important in arbitration cases, but pitchers who win them rarely reach a hearing or even settle for one-year deals. Even among players with the approximate three to six year service time window for arbitration, many elite pitchers who win Cy Youngs had already been signed to multi-year deals before winning (e.g. Zack Greinke, Felix Hernandez). The last time a reigning Cy Young Award winner became eligible for his second year of arbitration was eight years ago, when Johan Santana got a $3.9MM raise as part of a multi-year deal. Cases that old are rarely considered in hearings, especially if they were part of multi-year deals.

The only pitchers in recent years who have been eligible for arbitration after getting a Cy Young have been Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw, both of whom were only eligible for their first year of arbitration and both of whom signed multi-year deals in lieu of reaching an agreement. Neither is a good comparison for Price. However, it is worth noting that Lincecum’s and Kershaw’s first-year salaries of $9MM and $7.75MM are between $3.4 and $4.65 million more than the next two non-Cy Young winners in recent years (Cole Hamels in 2009 and Price himself in 2012). Since Lincecum’s larger raise was partly due to having two Cy Youngs already, this suggests that the extra value in winning a Cy Young is probably about a couple million dollars. Remember that Lincecum’s and Kershaw’s numbers were also much better than Hamels’ and Price’s, so not all of the salary gap can be explained by the Cys.

There have been no second-time arbitration eligible starting pitchers in the last several years to earn a raise like the $5.15MM that I have projected for Price, which makes sense because there have been no comparable pitchers. The largest single-season raise in the last six years for a second time arbitration eligible starter went to Jered Weaver in 2011, who got a $3.105MM raise. However, he only had a 13-12 record and a 3.01 ERA in 2010, making him clearly a poor match. Weaver was not the only pitcher who got a pretty big raise in his second year of arbitration on a one-year deal—slightly smaller raises went to Shaun Marcum ($3.1 million), Francisco Liriano ($2.7 million), and Jonathan Sanchez ($2.7 million).

Felix Hernandez might have been a better comparable in 2010, when he and the Mariners exchanged arbitration figures to follow up on his $3.85 million salary. Hernandez had just finished second in Cy Young voting, with a 19-5 record and a 2.49 ERA in 238.2 innings. The Mariners proposed a $3.4MM raise to $7.2MM, while he instead asked for a $7.7MM raise to $11.5MM. He ended up signing a five-year deal, which paid him just $6.5MM in 2010, but splitting his signing bonus between his two remaining arbitration eligible years, this can best be treated as an $8.25MM salary, a $4.4MM raise. Obviously, multi-year deals are different than one-year deals, so they are not ideal comparisons, but in the case of Price, this could be useful. The Mariners proposal of $3.4MM could be cited as a floor as well, since he did not have a Cy Young and Price does. Technically, if my assumption about how to distribute Hernadez’s signing bonus is correct, I could see an argument for a $4.4MM floor for a potential raise for Price.

Justin Verlander could also be a clue as to the floor for Price’s raise. He finished third in Cy Young voting in 2009, while receiving a $3.675MM salary in his first arbitration year. Verlander signed a multi-year deal in lieu of a one-year agreement, but beforehand he had proposed a $5.825MM raise and the Tigers had suggested a $3.215MM raise, which was pretty close to what he received in his multi-year deal.

It’s also worth noting that the largest salary raise for any arbitration eligible starting pitcher (other than first-time players) went to Cole Hamels in 2012, who got a $5.5MM raise. However, he was eligible for the fourth year, so he is definitely not a comparison. Raises grow over time. While hitters are not comparable either, it’s worth noting that the largest raise for a second-time eligible hitter was $5.65MM for Jacoby Ellsbury in 2012.

All of this points to a number that is considerably larger than a $3.5MM raise for Price, while the floor is much less clear. The Cy Young Awards of Lincecum and Kershaw in their first year of eligibility seemed to add close to a couple million to their salaries, so it seems like Price could probably get something like a $5MM raise, but really anything in the $4.5-6MM range would not surprise me for a case as unique as his.

Red Sox Looking At Bobby Abreu

By Mark Polishuk | January 1, 2013 at 3:58pm CDT

TUESDAY, 3:58pm: A major league source somewhat dismissively labeled the trip as "background work" and "nothing more than a scouting assignment" in a conversation with Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. Abreu would be a possible fit as another left-handed-hitting outfielder to split time with Jonny Gomes in left field, but he turns 39 in March and hit just .242/.350/.342 in 257 PAs for the Angels and Dodgers.

The Red Sox also expressed some interest in fellow available veteran Lance Berkman, but they are not believed to still be considering him. Recently, a team official said the Sox would be "comfortable" with either Ryan Kalish or Daniel Nava splitting time with Gomes, but cautioned that a move for another outfielder couldn't be ruled out.

MONDAY, 4:07pm: The Red Sox have worked out Bobby Abreu in Venezuela, including putting the veteran outfielder through drills at first base, reports Rafael Tejera (WEEI.com's Alex Speier confirms it through a Major League source). Speier notes that the workout may have been a case of "due diligence" for both Abreu and the Sox as Abreu has no professional experience as a first baseman and may not even be interested in playing the position.

After being released by the Angels and designated for assignment by the Dodgers in 2012, however, Abreu may have little room to argue a position change if he wants another contract with a Major League team. Abreu hit three home runs and had a slash line of .242/.350/.342 in 257 PAs for the two Los Angeles teams last season, with the .693 OPS standing as a career-low for the 17-year veteran.

Abreu, 38, is a below-average defender in the outfield and wouldn't see much time at DH in Boston with David Ortiz in the fold, so first base might be his only opportunity for even semi-regular playing time as part of a platoon. The Red Sox still have a tentative agreement with Mike Napoli though that deal has been under renegotiation for weeks due to concerns about Napoli's hip, and the Sox have also talked to free agent Adam LaRoche about filling their hole at first base.

This Date In Transactions History: January 1st

By Zachary Links | January 1, 2013 at 2:01pm CDT

New Year's Day isn't typically a hotbed of activity in baseball, but we have seen a few significant moves go down on January 1st. The biggest 1/1 transaction happened just last year when the Blue Jays acquired Jason Frasor from the White Sox in exchange for right-handed pitchers Myles Jaye and Daniel Webb.

Beyond the fact that the White Sox and Blue Jays didn't take a holiday (much like MLBTR), it was an interesting deal for a number of reasons. For starters, Frasor returned to Toronto just five months after he was shipped to Chicago in a July deal. That trade saw him packaged with right-hander Zach Stewart in exchange for right-hander Edwin Jackson and utility man Mark Teahen. Of course, Jackson's tenure with the Blue Jays was short-lived as he was flipped to the Cardinals for center fielder Colby Rasmus later that day.

The deal was also notable because Frasor just had his $3.75MM club option exercised on Halloween of 2011. The White Sox's return on this trade wasn't spectacular – neither Jaye nor Webb were considered to be strong prospects and had yet to advance to Double-A. However, (then) General Manager Kenny Williams would have gotten absolutely nothing had he declined Frasor's 2012 option. It would appear that Chicago exercised Frasor's option year for the express purpose of trading him.

Frasor had a decent year in his second act north of the border, turning in a 4.12 ERA with 10.9 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 in 50 appearances. The right-hander is still on the open market and is said to be receiving interest from the Brewers. Meanwhile, the 6'3" pitchers sent to Chicago both spent 2012 in Single-A Kannapolis. Webb (23) and Jaye (21) didn't set the world on fire, but the youngsters still have plenty of baseball in front of them.

Orioles Interested In Matt Lindstrom

By Zachary Links | January 1, 2013 at 11:48am CDT

The Orioles are among several teams interested in Matt Lindstrom, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun (on Twitter). Lindstrom was a part of the O's bullpen until he was sent to Arizona for Joe Saunders in August.

The 32-year-old pitched to a 2.68 ERA in 47 innings for the two clubs in 2012. Lindstrom had a club option for 2013, but the D'Backs opted to pay a $200K buyout rather than his $4MM salary. The O's are also interested in bringing back Saunders but will have to compete with the Mariners, Padres, Mets, and Twins.

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