Quick Hits: Moyer, Oswalt, Phillies, Draft
Here's today's look around baseball..
- Jamie Moyer won't rule out a return to pitching, writes Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times, but he noted that "it's not a dog and pony show" if he does pitch again. Moyer turned 50 last November and would be the first Major Leaguer to pitch at that age. Moyer tossed 53 2/3 innings for the Rockies last year.
- When asked if he would like to return to the Phillies, Roy Oswalt (on Twitter) said that he would love to come back to Philadelphia, as he enjoyed his time there. The hurler added that he hasn't felt this good since 2010 (link). Oswalt's agent, Bob Garber, confirmed that the tweets were made by Oswalt and that his client wants to come back and pitch this year, writes Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Garber "has not been in contact with any teams and does not plan to sell his client until his arm is ready," writes Gelb.
- Five years later, Jim Callis of Baseball America did a re-do of the 2008 draft. Callis' new draft has Buster Posey going first overall to the Rays, Brett Lawrie second to the Pirates, Eric Hosmer third to the Royals, and Alex Avila fourth to the Orioles.
- Teams have received their preliminary bonus pools for the 2013-14 international signing period, which begins on July 2, writes Ben Badler of Baseball America. The Astros have the most to work with at $4.943MM, while the Nationals are last with $1.846MM. The pools are based on the reverse order of the 2012 Major League winning percentage.
Jered Weaver To Miss 4-6 Weeks
1:10pm: The Angels are not interested in Harang and will instead replace Weaver with Richards, tweets Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio and ESPN.
11:55am: Angels righty Jered Weaver is out four to six weeks with a broken left (non-pitching) elbow, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The injury was suffered Sunday night as Weaver dove away from a Mitch Moreland line drive. The Angels have since announced Weaver being placed on the DL, with righty reliever Dane De La Rosa being added and Andrew Taylor transferred to the 60-day DL.
There were already some concerns about the health of Weaver's right arm, noted Dave Cameron of FanGraphs yesterday, but losing him for a month or so will put their depth to the test.
The Angels could stretch Garrett Richards out to start, turn to Jerome Williams, or dip into Triple-A for someone like Barry Enright. Though April trades are rare, the Rockies' Aaron Harang is available and the Dodgers' Chris Capuano ought to be. The Dodgers' Ted Lilly, who has a rehab start tomorrow night, is not likely to join Capuano in the team's bullpen. He should also be on the market.
How Many Good Players Are Going Year-To-Year?
More than ever, baseball's best players are choosing the security of a multiyear deal as opposed to the higher risk and reward of going year-to-year. But exactly how many of the game's best players are currently on one-year deals?
In 2012, 115 players accumulated at least 3.0 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. 82 of them (71%) are on multi-year contracts. Some of these players have expiring multiyear deals, like Robinson Cano, and some are on short two-year deals covering just a pair of arbitration seasons, like Clayton Kershaw. But most of them are locked up, like Ryan Braun, Buster Posey, David Wright, Justin Verlander, Andrew McCutchen, and Adrian Beltre. Of these 82 good players on multiyear deals, only 26 of them (32%) signed as free agents (counting Yu Darvish but excluding Jake Peavy and C.C. Sabathia). Of the 25 players worth at least five wins in 2012, only four of them (Beltre, Michael Bourn, Aramis Ramirez, and Torii Hunter) are signed to free agent contracts.
Only 33 players who were worth three wins or more in 2012 are currently going year-to-year, including the two such free agents who signed one-year deals (Hiroki Kuroda and A.J. Pierzynski). Taking out the two free agents (but including Aroldis Chapman since he can opt for arbitration when he has the service time), we're left with 31 young, good players who are currently going year-to-year. The top 15 by 2012 WAR:
- Mike Trout
- Chase Headley
- Jason Heyward
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Austin Jackson
- Ian Desmond
- David Price
- Josh Reddick
- Bryce Harper
- Max Scherzer
- Wade Miley
- Stephen Strasburg
- David Freese
- Matt Wieters
- David Murphy
Why aren't these 31 players under multiyear contracts yet? Nine of them have less than two years of big league service. While players at that service level do sign multiyear deals, teams don't have a ton of urgency since arbitration is not looming. Also, nine of the 31 players (and five of the top 14) are clients of the Boras Corporation. Boras is playing a major role in advising top young players against signing multiyear deals before free agency. Arbitration and free agency are on the decline, but not if Boras can help it.
Ranking Agencies By 2012 WAR
Which agency's players have the most MLB talent? One way of answering that question is to rank the agencies by 2012 wins above replacement (from FanGraphs). Here are the results for total 2012 WAR (please note that players with negative WAR were omitted):
- Boras Corporation: 104.4
- CAA Sports: 102.1.
- ACES: 78.8.
- SFX: 72.6.
- Wasserman Media Group: 66.5.
- Excel Sports Management: 62.4.
- The Legacy Agency: 56.0.
- Octagon: 52.1.
- MVP Sports Group: 34.3.
- LSW Baseball: 25.9.
- Beverly Hills Sports Council: 26.1.
- Frontline: 20.6.
- Reynolds Sports Management: 18.4.
- Sosnick/Cobbe: 18.1.
- Hendricks Sports: 17.4.
Some interesting information arises when we rank agencies by WAR per big league player, filtering to those with at least ten players. WAR per player:
- Excel Sports Management: 2.40.
- Boras Corporation: 2.09.
- Frontline: 2.06.
- CAA Sports: 2.04.
- LSW Baseball: 1.99.
- MVP Sports Group: 1.81.
- Octagon: 1.80.
- The Legacy Agency: 1.75.
- Moye Sports Associates: 1.68.
- Reynolds Sports Management: 1.67.
- Sosnick/Cobbe: 1.65.
- Hendricks Sports: 1.58.
- SFX: 1.51.
- ACES: 1.49.
- Wasserman Media Group: 1.41.
Beverly Hills Sports Council ranks outside the top 15, with 1.04. They had only two players who exceeded 2.0 WAR, Jason Kipnis and Ryan Ludwick. But perhaps in some cases WAR per player is deceiving, because a large agency like Boras gets dinged for having small contributions from players like Jacob Turner or Zach Britton. So, here's a listing of the number of four-win players by agency:
- Boras Corporation: 8 (Adrian Beltre, Michael Bourn, Austin Jackson, Prince Fielder, Matt Holliday, Bryce Harper, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg).
- CAA Sports: 7 (Robinson Cano, Ryan Braun, Buster Posey, Jake Peavy, Adam Jones, Ryan Zimmerman, David Freese). You'll note that CAA is credited for having Cano now, even though Boras had him in 2012.
- ACES, Excel Sports Management, The Legacy Agency: tied at 5.
Octagon and Wasserman Media Group had three each.
What have we learned? Boras still reigns supreme, in terms of depth of MLB talent and star power. CAA is very close on both fronts with the addition of Cano, though the second baseman's association with Roc Nation Sports muddies the waters a bit. ACES remains strong — in terms of three-win players, they rank behind only Boras and CAA, with nine.
MLBTR's agency database was used for this post; please email me at mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com with any corrections or omissions.
Extensions Down This Offseason
From the end of the 2012 season until present, 25 players with less than six years of Major League service time signed multiyear extensions. However, from the end of the 2011 season through April 30th, 2012, 37 such deals were signed. So, we've seen a notable decrease in extensions this offseason. During both offseasons, the average value of these arbitration year extensions has been around $28-29MM.
This offseason, arbitration eligible players signed deals later in their careers. The average service time of an extended player this offseason was right around four years, as opposed to three years and 126 days the previous winter. One notable difference is in the number of players extended with less than two years of big league service. So far this offseason we've had only one such player, Paul Goldschmidt, and he received $32MM. The previous offseason, six players signed with less than two years service: Jonathan Lucroy, Madison Bumgarner, Carlos Santana, Cory Luebke, Salvador Perez, and Matt Moore. Only Bumgarner topped $21MM. Some of those deals are among the most team-friendly in baseball, so perhaps agents have begun to dissuade these players from signing so quickly for $15MM or less.
One possible reason for the apparent decline in extensions: maybe we're not done this month. Santana, Bumgarner, and Erick Aybar signed after April 9th, back in 2012. Guys will certainly sign later during the season as well, but I thought it made sense to consider April 30th to be the end of the offseason, for the purposes of this post.
MLBTR's Extension Tracker was used for this post; please check it out.
Transaction Retrospection: The First Hunter Pence Trade
The Astros entered 2013 with a shockingly low payroll by today's standards thanks to a number of offseason trades that were intended to boost their farm system. It's nothing new for Houston — a team that hasn't finished above .500 since the 2008 season. General manager Jeff Luhnow and his staff have done a terrific job of amassing young talent to build promise for the future, but the first step may have been taken by Luhnow's predecessor — Ed Wade.
In July 2011, the last-place Astros had a number of desireable pieces on their roster, but perhaps none more appealing than Hunter Pence. The 28-year-old right fielder was hitting .308/.356/.471 with 11 homers when the Astros traded him to the Phillies (along with $2MM) for a package of four prospects: first baseman Jonathan Singleton (19 years old at the time), right-hander Jarred Cosart (21), right-hander Josh Zeid (24) and right fielder Domingo Santana (18).
Let's look at all of the players involved…
The Major League Side
- Hunter Pence: The Phillies acquired a year-and-a-half of Pence's service in the deal. He slid into the Phillies' lineup and immediately provided a boost. Pence had homered 11 times in 100 games for the Astros but matched that total in just 54 games for the Phils. He closed out the season on a torrid pace, hitting .324/.394/.560 in 236 trips to the plate as the Phillies marched to a 102-win season and a first-place finish. Pence's second season with the Phillies
didn't go as well; his Musial-esque 159 OPS+ dropped to 108, and he was eventually traded to the Giants for a package of players highlighted by catcher Tommy Joseph (that trade could be a whole new post). All told, the Phillies parted with four prospects and were rewarded with 676 plate appearances worth of .289/.357/.486 production and average right field defense. Fangraphs pegs Pence's value in Phildelphia at 3.6 wins above replacement.
The Minor League Side
- Jonathan Singleton: Singleton has emerged as the best prospect in this deal (Cosart, at the time, was regarded slightly higher). Baseball America ranked him as the game's 39th-best prospect prior to 2011, and he now occupies the No. 27 spot on that list. MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo agrees with that ranking and places him first among Astros prospects. BA calls Singleton "the best first base prospect in baseball," noting his plus raw power and ability to hit to all fields. Mayo agrees that he's the best first base prospect in the game, and both think that Singleton could be in the Majors as soon as this season. He hit .284/.396/.497 with 21 homers as a 20-year-old at Double-A last season. Houston fans will have to wait, however, as Singleton is serving a 50-game suspension after testing positive for marijuana.
- Jarred Cosart: Cosart's stock has fallen after a 2012 season that was slowed by recurring blisters on his pitching hand. He still posted a solid 3.30 ERA, 7.2 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 in 114 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. He's fallen out of BA's Top 100 and ranks as Houston's No. 7 prospect in their eyes, but Mayo is more of a believer; he ranks Cosart No. 89 in the game and No. 4 in the Astros' system. Both feel that Cosart's stock would soar if he could improve his command of a plus curveball with 11-to-5 break, as it would complement what BA refers to an "electric" fastball that sits 96-97 mph. Some feel that Cosart could end up as a closer, but control of his curveball could have him sitting atop Houston's rotation in the near future.
- Domingo Santana: Santana, the youngest player in the trade, was included as a PTBNL and viewed a high-risk prospect. He's emerged as the team's No. 11 prospect per BA and No. 13 prospect per Mayo. BA writes that he has significant raw power and an advanced opposite-field approach to pair with enough athleticism to develop into a regular right fielder if things break right. Mayo concurs with that analysis and notes that he has "an outstanding arm that fits perfectly in right field, along with his offensive profile."
- Josh Zeid: Zeid doesn't rank among the Top 30 prospects in Houston's system per BA or the Top 20 per Mayo, but he ranked as Philadelphia's 23rd prospect at the time of the trade. BA credited Zeid with the best slider in Philly's farm system following the 2010 season, noting that his fastball can reach 97 mph when he's serving in a relief role. That's exactly what he's done since coming to Houston, but he posted an ugly 5.59 ERA in 56 1/3 innings at Double-A last season. However, his 10.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and strong 3.52 FIP suggest that there are better times ahead for the 26-year-old. He's pitching at Triple-A Oklahoma City to open this season.
The Phillies gave up quite a bit of talent in order to land Pence, and the Astros are clearly better off for it. Twenty percent of the players in Houston's Top 15 prospects were acquired via this trade, and while there are question marks surrounding some of them, Singleton's future looks more certain. Philadelphia, meanwhile, received a boost to their lineup that helped cement a division championship. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. was able to flip Pence one year later to recoup some of the prospect value that he gave up in order to land Pence.
The Phillies got precisely what they were hoping for in Pence, but the Astros appear to be better positioned for the long-haul as a result. Scenarios like this are often the case when dealing prospects for short-term help at the Major League level. Had the Phillies won a World Series title in 2011, there wouldn't be much second-guessing the trade. As it stands, Houston picked up enough future upside that they could eventually make Philadelphia fans regret the deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
MLBTR Agency Database
Behind every multi-million dollar MLB contract, there's an agent. Ever wonder who represents your favorite players? Just check out MLBTR's agency database, which lists agencies for over 1,700 players. Agents: if you notice any errors or omissions, please email me at mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com. And if you'd really like to help, click below to see a list of 86 players for whom I still need agency information.
NL West Notes: Kershaw, Padres, Rockies
Earlier today, Tim Dierkes took a look at the Rockies' offseason as one of the final entries in MLBTR's Offseason In Review series. Here's a look around the rest of the division…
- One baseball official tells Jon Heyman of CBS Sports that talks between Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers have already surpassed the $200MM mark. Kershaw has "everything going for him" in the negotiations, writes Heyman.
- Chris Jenkins of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that formerly promising Padres Chris Young, Jason Bay and Kevin Kouzmanoff are now simply fighting to save their Major League careers.
- Within that same piece, Jenkins notes that Josh Rutledge is the 13th different Opening Day second baseman for the Rockies in 13 seasons. Not since Mike Lansing in 1999-2000 have the Rox had a second baseman open two straight seasons with the club.
- In his most recent Minor League report, Baseball America's Matt Eddy notes that the Rockies have signed GM Dan O'Dowd's son, Chris O'Dowd. The younger O'Dowd was released by the Padres in March after being a 23rd-round selection in the 2012 Draft.
East Links: Wheeler, Fernandez, Swisher, Red Sox
A collection of links pertaining to baseball's Eastern divisions…
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post praises the Mets for leaving top prospect in the minor leagues and questions why the Marlins have chosen to start Jose Fernandez's service clock early. Sherman argues that non-contenders should be more mindful of the financial rammifications — especially the Marlins, for whom money will likely continue to be an issue.
- Nick Swisher told reporters (including Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger) that "it hurt" when the Yankees didn't make him an offer to return (beyond the one-year, $13.3MM qualifying offer to receive draft pick compensation). Swisher said he's no longer thinking about the Yankees and is focused on winning with the Indians, who have treated him "like a king" thus far.
- Red Sox president and CEO Larry Lucchino told Jerry Spar of WEEI that baseball is "fun again" in Boston. Lucchino also praised general manager Ben Cherington's work in last summer's trade with the Dodgers, noting that they would have been happy to receive just one of Allen Webster or Rubby De La Rosa but wound up with both.
- In this week's Nationals mailbox, MLB.com's Bill Ladson writes that the team has given no thought to cutting ties with flamethrower Henry Rodriguez. Manager Davey Johnson loves Rodriguez's arm, according to Ladson, so the organization plans to stick with him.
Seeking Late-Night Assistance For @CloserNews
@CloserNews, as the name suggests, aims to keep followers up-to-date on all happenings involving closers and late-inning relievers, mainly to help you dominate the saves category in your fantasy league. This Twitter account, which is a side project of mine, has proven successful with over 16,000 followers to date.
We are currently looking for people interested in manning @CloserNews for certain late-night games, concluding after 11pm central time. This is an unpaid position, so please apply only if you would like it on your resume or simply would enjoy being involved. If you're interested, please email closernewshelp@gmail.com with your qualifications.