Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Archives for November 2013

Carlos Beltran Receives Qualifying Offer

By | at

The Cardinals have extended a qualifying offer to right fielder Carlos Beltran, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter link). Should Beltran reject the qualifying offer, which is valued at one year and $14.1MM, the Cardinals will be eligible to receive a compensatory draft pick should he sign elsewhere.

Beltran saw a decline in his plate discipline, defense and offense from the right side of the dish in 2013, but he still slashed a robust .296/.339/.491 with 24 home runs in an even 600 plate appearances. In my free agent profile for Beltran last month, I predicted that he could sign a two-year, $30MM contract to cover his age 37-38 seasons. Beltran and the Yankees are rumored to have mutual interest.

You can keep track of Beltran and all of baseball's free agents this offseason by using MLBTR's Free Agent Tracker.

Yankees Make Qualifying Offers To Cano, Granderson, Kuroda

By | at

The Yankees made qualifying offers to Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, and Hiroki Kuroda, according to a team press release.

As the top free agent on the market, making the $14.1MM qualifying offer to Cano was a no-brainer and ensures the Yankees will at least receive a draft pick if he signs elsewhere.  Kuroda was considered likely to get a qualifying offer, after the 38-year-old posted a 3.31 ERA in 201 1/3 innings.  There is a chance he could accept, although that would be a mild pay cut from this year's $15MM.  

Granderson was the biggest question mark, after a couple of broken bones limited the slugger to 61 games this year.  Agent Matt Brown recently admitted to Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News there's "definitely a possibility" of his client accepting the offer.  I think Granderson will decline, however, as he can still do well in the free agent market with a draft pick attached.  Granderson has until 4pm central time on November 11th to decide whether to accept.

To keep track of all of today's qualifying offers, check out MLBTR's Free Agent Tracker and filter by Qualifying Offer Type.

Josh Johnson Not Getting Qualifying Offer

By | at

The Blue Jays will not be making a qualifying offer to righty Josh Johnson, MLBTR has learned.  Even after a lost season wrecked by injuries, there was a small chance that the Jays would overpay to get the 29-year-old under contract for 2014.  Had the Blue Jays made the $14.1MM qualifying offer, it's likely Johnson would have accepted, as he's not expected to reach that salary on the open market.

Johnson, profiled by MLBTR here, ranked 30th on our Top 50 Free Agents list.  He's expected to be ready for Spring Training after elbow surgery this month, and will be seeking a one-year deal to rebuild value.  A few days ago, agent Matt Sosnick told Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press, "If Toronto doesn't make a qualifying offer, we'll probably be looking for a good pitching atmosphere, a good defense behind him and a team with a good chance to win."

Arbitration Eligibles: Cleveland Indians

By | at

Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Indians are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Masterson will be entering his contract year in 2014 and projects to earn a strong salary his last time through arbitration.  He made his first All-Star team in 2013, and posted a 3.45 ERA in 193 innings overall.  His last start came on September 2nd, as he was knocked out by an oblique strain and assumed a relief role upon his return because he did not have time to build up his stamina.  Masterson had two sub-4.00 ERA seasons out of four in Cleveland, although he has not yet put together one with a strong strikeout rate and a walk rate below 3.0 per nine.  If the Indians are to extend the 28-year-old groundballer this offseason, a five-year deal between those of John Danks ($65MM) and Jered Weaver ($85MM) would make sense.

Tomlin had Tommy John surgery in August last year, and spent most of his season in the minors after finishing rehab.  The Indians may see fit to non-tender him.

Brantley had a decent year, although he hasn't done anything that would warrant a multiyear extension.  Stubbs seems stretched as more than a fourth outfielder, and with a $3.8MM projection, the Indians should consider non-tendering him.  Marson's season was ruined by an April collision, after which he battled a neck sprain and shoulder injury.  He appeared in only three games, and is a candidate to be cut loose.

In Rzepczynski, Pestano, Wood, and Herrmann, the Indians have four arbitration eligible relievers.  Rzepczynski joined the Indians in a July trade with the Cardinals and was excellent in 27 appearances for the Tribe.  He's penciled in to next year's bullpen.  Pestano, once the heir apparent to former closer Chris Perez, battled an elbow injury and lost velocity this year, and was optioned upon the Indians' acquisition of Rzepczynski.  Pestano still qualifies as a Super Two, and is still worth retaining for 2014.

Wood, who had Tommy John surgery in May 2012, was claimed off waivers by the Indians from the Royals last November.  He remained in the minors after his rehab stint ended, though he earned a September call-up due to solid work in Triple-A.  Though he has control issues, Wood is probably worth the roster spot.  Herrmann had Tommy John in March of this year, picking up service time in 2013 while spending the entire year on the DL.  He would also be cheap to retain.

Assuming the Indians tender contracts to Masterson, Brantley, Rzepczynski, Pestano, Wood, and Herrmann, they're looking at an estimated $17.5MM for six arbitration eligible players.  However, it is far from certain Stubbs, Tomlin, and Marson will be non-tendered, and they represent an additional potential $5.9MM.

Indians Extend Qualifying Offer To Ubaldo Jimenez

By | at

As expected, the Indians have extended a qualifying offer to free agent Ubaldo Jimenez, according to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com (via Twitter).  The one-year, $14.1MM QO ensures that the Indians will receive draft pick compensation if he goes elsewhere.

Jimenez could find a ripe market this winter given the lack of quality starting pitching available.  Many believe that the two-year, $35MM deal given to Giants hurler Tim Lincecum also boosts the value of the 29-year-old.  A long-term deal for Jimenez in Cleveland seems unlikely, but they'd happily take him back in 2014 for $14.1MM.

Jimenez, who turns 30 in January, posted a 3.30 ERA with 9.6 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a 43.9 percent ground-ball rate in 182 2/3 innings this season.  Things were rocky for Jimenez in 2011 and '12, but his turnaround in 2013 has completely altered his stock heading into free agency.

Free Agent Profile: Jacoby Ellsbury

By | at

A healthy 2013 season went a long way toward restoring Jacoby Ellsbury's free agent value.  He bounced back from a lost 2012 season to re-establish himself as one of the game's elite leadoff men and center fielders, and agent Scott Boras surely expects a contract well north of $100MM.

USATSI_7280413

Strengths/Pros

Ellsbury is known for his blazing speed, and he led all of baseball with 52 stolen bases this year.  He previously picked up the American League stolen base crown in '08 and topped MLB in '09.  He has a strong career stolen base success rate of 84%, and was up near 93% this year.  FanGraphs' baserunning stat, which includes steals and a bunch of other baserunning skills, suggests Ellsbury was worth 11.4 runs on the basepaths this year.  That figure was the best in baseball.

To make an impact on the bases, a player needs first to reach base, and Ellsbury does well there with a .350 career OBP.  He has a high contact rate and a .297 career batting average, and draws enough walks to supplement his hits.  

Ellsbury also has more pop than the typical center fielder, with a career slugging percentage of .439 and isolated power of .141.  While his power is more of the doubles and triples variety, which is aided by his speed, he did hit 32 home runs in 2011.  As Baseball HQ likes to say, once you display a skill, you own it, so it's fair to say Ellsbury has the potential for double digit home runs.  

That 2011 season looks amazing on a resume, as Ellsbury led all of baseball with 9.1 wins above replacement.  He finished second in the AL MVP voting, won a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove, and made the All-Star team.

Defense is another strong suit for Ellsbury.  He won a Gold Glove in 2011 and has consistently posted above average UZR and DRS numbers in center field.  Ellsbury adds value in every conceivable way.

This year FanGraphs had him at 5.8 wins above replacement, a level of production a team might value at $30MM or more.  Ellsbury's WAR ranked second only to Robinson Cano among free agents.  Ellsbury will play next year at age 30, which is considered young for a free agent.

Weaknesses/Cons

Ellsbury already has lost two seasons to injury in his career.  He played only 18 games in 2010, fracturing multiple ribs after colliding with Adrian Beltre in April.  Two years later, he collided with Reid Brignac while sliding into second base and ended up playing only 74 games due to a shoulder injury.  "Jacoby Ellsbury is a very durable player. He just has to make sure that people don’t run into him," Boras told reporters in July.  There may be an element of truth to that, but most people in the game would not use the word "durable" to describe Ellsbury.  Ellsbury didn't run into anyone this year, but he was still limited to 134 games due to a groin injury, a sore wrist, and a compression fracture in his right foot.  He was on the field for the postseason, playing in all 16 games despite a nagging hand injury first reported by Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.

There is a belief around baseball that speed doesn't age well, and Ellsbury's game could suffer if he loses a step.  While Ellsbury is not as reliant on infield hits as he used to be, they still comprised about 14% of his total this year, according to Baseball-Reference.  His 7.4% walk rate this year, while a career best, is nothing special.  Ellsbury's OBP could come down as he loses speed, more so than with the average player.  And of course, speed is a big factor in center field defense.

A left-handed batter, Ellsbury wasn't much of a threat against southpaws this year, posting a .246/.323/.318 line in 237 plate appearances.

Ellsbury is a lock to receive and turn down a qualifying offer from the Red Sox, so signing him will require a team to forfeit its highest available pick in the 2014 draft.

Personal

Ellsbury was born and raised in Madras, Oregon, and the town threw a parade for him in 2007.  He met his future wife Kelsey while they were attending college at Oregon State.  According to the Red Sox media guide, Ellsbury is believed to be the first Native American of Navajo descent to play in MLB, and he's proud of his heritage.  This year he conducted the Second Annual N7 Jacoby Ellsbury Baseball Camp at the Salt River Fields at Talking Stick in January, with 130 kids in attendance.

Ellsbury loves basketball and played in high school, along with football and of course baseball.  He played on travel teams and became friends with current Athletics infielder Jed Lowrie.  The two players were drafted 22 picks apart in 2005 and were teammates for many years in the minors and Majors. 

Market

The Red Sox have made efforts to sign Ellsbury in the past, and will at least have conversations with Boras.  Otherwise, any team with some payroll space that doesn't have an elite center fielder in place will be approached, including the Rangers, Mariners, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Nationals, and Cubs.  I'd throw the Tigers in that mix, but that could be tricky for Boras since center fielder Austin Jackson is another one of his clients.

Ellsbury is an ownership level discussion, and Boras has those connections, so it doesn't necessarily matter if the GM approves.

Expected Contract

In September, Boras explained at length to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports why Ellsbury is better than fellow speedy outfielder Carl Crawford.  Boras generally has huge expectations for contracts for his elite free agents, and I think he expects to top Crawford's seven-year, $142MM contract from three years ago.  Boras has secured eight, nine, and ten-year deals before, and he's probably thinking eight or nine years for Ellsbury as a starting point.  I think there's a chance a team springs for eight, especially if that knocks down the average annual value a bit.  Crawford fell short of $21MM a year, and I think Boras can get $20-23MM per year for Ellsbury.  Ultimately, I predict a seven-year, $150MM deal.  

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Originals

By | at

A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR last week as the Boston Red Sox celebrated their third World Championship in the last ten years.

Tigers To Hire Ausmus As Manager

By | at

TODAY: Ausmus was given a three-year deal that includes a club option for a fourth season, tweets Chris Iott of MLive.com. 

YESTERDAY, 10:36pm: The Tigers will hire Brad Ausmus as manager, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. The news was first reported via Twitter by Adam Spolane of SportsRadio 610.

Ausmus, 44, is currently a special assistant with the Padres. He was previously connected with the Cubs, and also interviewed with the Mariners and Nationals. Over the course of his impressive 18-year playing career, Ausmus caught nearly 16,000 innings, appearing in an All-Star game and winning three Gold Gloves.

Ausmus becomes the third manager to be hired so far this offseason who lacks experience helming a club at the major league level, joining Bryan Price of the Reds and Matt Williams of the Nationals. We've recently seen Mike Matheny guide the Cardinals to back-to-back playoff appearances in his first two seasons as a manager, and his success may have boosted MLB executives' confidence in such candidates.

The move comes as a surprise from Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski, who noted prior to Ausmus' hiring that every skipper he's ever chosen has had managerial experience in pro ball. Dombrowski had also indicated that he had no plans to "change the culture" of the Tigers after the club's recent success, suggesting that team would opt for an internal candidate such as Lloyd McClendon, the former Pirates manager and current hitting coach in Detroit. Other names linked with the Tigers' top dugout job included Dodgers third base coach Tim Wallach and Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo.

NL Notes: Stanton, Ruiz, Kershaw, Cardinals, Phillies

By | at

Here are some National League notes to round out the evening …

  • The Marlins are not going to trade star outfielder Giancarlo Stanton in the offseason, newly minted GM Dan Jennings emphatically asserted. As ESPN's Jim Bowden reports (via Twitter), Jennings said that "Mr. Stanton is not available" and that the team is "building around him."
  • The Rockies are making a run at free agent catcher Carlos Ruiz, reports Troy Renck of the Denver Post. Incumbent Wilin Rosario would presumably get some or all of his playing time at first or in the outfield if Colorado were to land Ruiz. The soon-to-be 35-year-old backstop landed at number 29 on the list of MLB's top fifty free agents compiled by MLBTR's Tim Dierkes, who sees a return to Philadelphia as the most likely scenario.
  • Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers said yesterday that he was "curious" about free agency but "open-minded going into the off-season," Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reported. He also expressed some frustration with the recent reports that he turned down a $300MM deal from the club. Now, says Hernandez's colleague Steve Dilbeck, the team may be facing something of a catch-22: the team surely must sign him at some hard-to-fathom rate, but the risks are enormous.
  • Though the Cardinals' future remains unquestionably bright given the organization's array of young talent, says Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the club faces some significant questions. If Carlos Beltran can be brought back on a reasonable deal, Miklasz writes, it is possible that the club will use super-prospect Oscar Taveras in center with a combination of Beltran, Allen Craig, Matt Adams, and Matt Holliday at first base and the corner outfield. But if Beltran leaves, he says, it is not unrealistic to think the club might pursue Jacoby Ellsbury. 
  • The club's greatest hole, of course, is at shortstop. GM John Mozeliak needs to make a proactive move at this point, says Miklasz, either by signing a player like Stephen Drew or Jhonny Peralta or by trading from the team's pitching depth. Fellow Post-Dispatch writer Rick Hummel looks at some possible trade targets for the team.
  • For the Phillies to return to contention, writes Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer, the club must spend big in free agency. Gelb says the club has ample room to increase spending above the $189MM luxury tax line if it wants, though GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has expressed hesitation. "Obviously, we had a lot less people coming to the ballpark this year," Amaro said at season's end. "We have to be cognizant of that. We have been greatly supported – our payroll was, what, $165MM? That should be enough to put a contender on the field." Dierkes sees the Phils as the front-runners for Nelson Cruz, Ricky Nolasco, Ruiz, and Edward Mujica, though he notes that it all depends whether the team is willing to tack on $40MM+ to its 2014 obligations.

Rays Exercise Club Option On David DeJesus, Discussing Extension

By | at

The Rays have exercised the club's $6.5MM option on outfielder David DeJesus, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. (With a $1.5MM buyout, this was effectively a $5MM decision.) Meanwhile, the sides are also discussing a multi-year extension, Topkin further tweets.

This news rates as at least a mild surprise, largely due to Tampa's historically lean payroll, which has landed just over $60MM at opening day the last two years. Looking ahead, the Rays owe $23.6MM to five players in 2014, and could spend right around $30MM on arbitration-eligible players. MLBTR's Mark Polishuk was among those who expected the option to be too pricey for GM Andrew Friedman to exercise it. Of course, if ace David Price finds a new home, his projected $13.1MM salary would open a lot of room.

DeJesus, who turns 34 in December, has been a solid-if-unspectacular contributor for some time now. He was exactly league average at the plate in terms of OPS last year, and he's never posted an OPS+ of under 91 or over 118 in a full season of action. (He played in just 91 games in 2010, when he managed a 127 OPS+ for the Royals.) Of course, the lefty has historically struggled against southpaws, with a .252/.321/.342 slash line that is dwarfed by his .289/.365/.447 line against righties. Even worse, that split has significantly worsened over the course of his career. Formerly just slightly below average against lefties, DeJesus has put up three straight wRC+ marks of 32 or lower when facing same-armed hurlers. DeJesus has divided his time about evenly between center field and the corner outfield, and is generally viewed as acceptable at the former and good at the latter.

The $6.5MM that DeJesus will earn next year becomes the largest annual payroll he's pulled down. He joined Tampa through the August non-revocable waiver trade market, after spending much of the season with the Cubs and then getting three at-bats with the Nationals on his way south.

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

hide arrows scroll to top