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Archives for January 2014

Olney On Kimbrel, Rumors, Morales, Ryan

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In his latest ESPN Insider piece (subscription required and recommended), Buster Olney covered some interesting topics. Among them:

  • It makes sense for the Braves to roll the dice on winning their upcoming arbitration hearing with closer Craig Kimbrel, says Olney, who notes that Kimbrel could otherwise earn more through arbitration than he might get on the open market. The stakes are high for both sides: Kimbrel's $9MM demand would set him up for perhaps a $14-15MM payday next year, while the Braves' $6.55MM counter could hold him to the $10-11MM range in 2015. That could make the difference between whether he is kept in Atlanta or is instead dealt to free up payroll space. And, as Olney notes, the return on Kimbrel in a trade might not be quite what fans would hope for if he is going to be paid like a starter.
  • In spite of the MLB rules prohibiting team officials and agents from dispensing certain types of information regarding free agents, says Olney, a "tsunami of disinformation" has hit the rumor mill this offseason. 
  • Some MLB team executives have told Olney that Kendrys Morales may need to wait to sign until after the June 5-7 amateur draft if he hopes to beat the $14.1MM qualifying offer rate that he previously declined. By rule, a signing team would no longer be required to sacrifice draft pick compensation for Morales at that point. And, Olney notes, injuries and other happenings could increase demand.
  • One major issue (among others) with this hypothetical strategy, I would suggest, is that Morales would only be able to earn a prorated portion of whatever 2014 salary he arrives at. For a player who was never really expected to land more than a two-year deal, giving up half-a-year of playing time might be more costly than just signing with the compensation attached. 
  • If Nolan Ryan joins the Astros organization, reports Olney, he will not be interested in serving as a figurehead and will want to have a voice in player personnel decisions. 

Quick Hits: Yoon, Hardy, Arroyo, Wells

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After nine seasons with the Tigers, Kirk Gibson left Detroit for free agency, signing a three-year, $4.5MM deal with the Dodgers on this day 26 years ago.  The Dodgers immediately got a return on their investment as Gibson won the 1988 NL MVP Award (hitting .290/.377/.483 with 25 homers and 106 runs) as he and Orel Hershiser led Los Angeles to the pennant.  Knee and hamstring injuries left Gibson questionable for the World Series, however, and Gibson made just one plate appearance in the 1988 Fall Classic…but it was certainly a big one.  Ironically, Gibson is today firmly aligned against the Dodgers in his current role as the Diamondbacks' manager.

Here are some items from around baseball…

  • Scott Boras, Suk-min Yoon's agent, said that "many teams," including the Red Sox, were interested in his client, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports (Twitter link).  The Sox were linked to Yoon earlier this month though it's unknown if Boston is one of the four clubs who have made contract offers to the Korean righty.  Boras said that "we'll know more in 10 days," which would seemingly give credence to rumors that Yoon will soon sign with a team.
  • The Orioles were rumored to be considering a contract extenson for J.J. Hardy this winter, though there has been a lack of movement on this front.  CSNBaltimore.com's Rich Dubroff wonders if the O's are waiting for Stephen Drew's free agent situation to be resolved since the two shortstops have comparable career numbers.  Hardy is scheduled for free agency next winter and his long-term future in Baltimore is in some question given that shortstop is Manny Machado's natural position.
  • A source with direct knowledge of Bronson Arroyo's negotiations tells MLB Daily Dish's Chris Cotillo (Twitter link) to "don't believe everything you read" in regards to Arroyo's claim that he hasn't received a firm contract offer this winter.
  • Vernon Wells is guaranteed $21MM for the 2014 season after being released by the Yankees, and since Wells lives in a state (Texas) with no income tax, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal notes that Wells could actually end up losing money if he plays for another team this season.  Of course, losing a little more than $1MM in taxes may not be a major concern for Wells (who has banked over $110MM for his career, according to Baseball Reference) if he wants to continue his career.
  • For the first time, MLB teams could sign more free agents to multiyear contracts than one-year deals, Fangraphs' Dave Cameron writes.  With more money (particularly from TV deals) coming into the game, Cameron theorizes that teams are more willing to make longer commitments to players.

Blue Jays Pursued Trades For Kinsler, Anderson

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The Blue Jays almost finalized trades that would've seen them acquire Ian Kinsler from the Rangers and Brett Anderson from the Athletics earlier this winter, but both deals ended up as "near-misses," Sportsnet's Shi Davidi reports.

Kinsler, of course, was part of the offseason's biggest blockbuster to date, when he was traded to the Tigers in exchange for Prince Fielder and $30MM.  Before that deal occurred, however, the Jays' proposed swap for the second baseman fell through due to Kinsler's partial no-trade clause that allowed him to block deals to up to 10 teams.  It's unknown what the Jays would have given up for Kinsler, though I would guess it would've been on a much lesser scale than Fielder; it wouldn't have made much sense for Toronto create another hole in the lineup by dealing the likes of Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion.

The Jays had long been rumored to be suitors for Anderson and they discussed a trade with the A's that would've sent Sergio Santos to Oakland in return for the southpaw.  Anderson's extensive injury history, however, ended up dimming Toronto's interest and Anderson was instead traded to the Rockies in December.  Interestingly, the Jays also had Santos tabbed to go to the Rangers as part of a potential three-team deal in November that was scuttled when another player in the deal failed his physical.

Second base and the starting rotation were the Blue Jays' two biggest areas of need going into the offseason, so had these two would-be deals gone through, GM Alex Anthopoulos' winter shopping could have essentially been complete.  With January almost over, however, the Jays are still looking for rotation upgrades and a Ryan Goins/Maicer Izturis platoon is still penciled into the keystone position.

Blue Jays Notes: Jimenez, Santana, Anthopoulos

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The Blue Jays haven't made any offers to free agent starters but that could change in the near future, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports.  The Jays have considered such options as Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana, A.J. Burnett and Bronson Arroyo, and have also looked at adding starting pitching (such as the Rays' David Price and the Cubs' Jeff Samardzija) in trades.  While Jimenez might not be Toronto's top choice, the team has nevertheless looked into his medical records and other "extensive background work" on the right-hander.

Here's some more from general manager Alex Anthopoulos, who spoke to reporters at the Jays' state of the franchise event tonight.  All of Anthopoulos' comments are from the Twitter feeds of Sportsnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi…

  • Anthopoulos noted that any of four free agent starters (Santana, Jimenez, Burnett, Arroyo) could "all be a significant improvement" to the Jays' rotation.
  • The idea of pursuing a free agent is becoming more appealing to the club, Anthopoulos said, since prices are beginning to drop.
  • In terms of internal pitching prospects, Anthopoulos praised Marcus Stroman, comparing the 22-year-old righty to Athletics right-hander Sonny Gray.  While ideally Stroman would spend 2014 in the minors, Anthopoulos believes Stroman is ready for the majors now.  Stroman made solid showing in recent top 100 prospects lists from Baseball Prospectus (ranked 27th), MLB.com (r55th) and ESPN's Keith Law (58th), and Baseball America considers Stroman to be the second-best prospect in Toronto's system, behind only Aaron Sanchez.
  • Pitching seems to be Toronto's focus, as Anthopoulos said the club isn't actively pursuing position players.  We heard yesterday that the Jays were "in the mix" for Stephen Drew to fill their hole at second base.
  • Anthopoulos said the team has had dialogue with most of the top free agents and continues to talk with both free agents and with other teams about trades, though "I don't know that I'd say were close on anything."

AL Central Links: Martinez, Yoon, Royals

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Here's the latest from around the AL Central…

  • Victor Martinez wants to remain with the Tigers beyond this season, the veteran slugger told reporters (including Tom Gage of the Detroit News), though he realizes the club may have other payroll priorities to be addressed, such as new deals for Max Scherzer and Miguel Cabrera.  Martinez, who turned 35 last month, is entering the final year of his four-year, $50MM deal with the Tigers.  After missing all of 2012 with a torn ACL, Martinez returned to hit .301/.355/.430 with 14 home runs in 668 PA in 2013.
  • The Indians looked at Korean right-hander Suk-min Yoon earlier this offseason but weren't willing to meet Yoon's price, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports (Twitter link).  Yoon has reportedly received offers from four MLB teams and he is in talking to two of them.  The Twins have long been linked to Yoon and they continue to "monitor" him, though there haven't been any meetings between the two sides. 
  • The Royals' wealth of upcoming minor league talent is cited by Fangraphs' Jeff Sullivan as a counter to the oft-stated belief that the club's only "window of contention" is only open for as long as James Shields is in Kansas City.  Shields is entering his last year under contract and since it is believed the Royals won't be able to afford him, the team has been criticized for acquiring Shields in the deal that sent Wil Myers and others to Tampa Bay.
  • In AL Central news from earlier today, the Twins signed righty Matt Guerrier to a minor league deal and the Royals both acquired outfielder Carlos Peguero from the Mariners for cash and designated southpaw Everett Teaford for assignment. 

A.J. Burnett Rumors: Wednesday

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The free agent pitching market was given a jolt by yesterday's news that A.J. Burnett will return in 2014 and that he's open to pitching for a team other than the Pirates.  Here's the latest batch of news and opinions about the veteran right-hander…

  • With the Phillies having checked in on Burnett earlier this offseason, Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News notes that the Phillies could be aided by the fact that assistant GM Scott Proefrock is friends with Burnett and they live in the same neighborhood.  Burnett and Cliff Lee share an agent in Darek Braunecker.
  • Signing Burnett would put the Phillies over their stated payroll limit for 2014, though Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com wonders if the team would spend extra to help attract the fans back to Citizens Bank Park.  Trade protection could also be a factor; Burnett would definitely want some type of no-trade protection in his next contract since he wants to be near his Maryland home, and the Phillies only give out partial no-trade clauses. 
  • In order to fit Burnett into the Pirates' budget, MLB.com's Tom Singer proposes that the Bucs should offer Burnett a one-year, $17MM contract for 2014.  Of that sum, $10MM would be deferred, which Singer feels is a win-win for both sides — the Pirates can keep their payroll in check, while Burnett gets to remain in a comfortable situation while still accepting a market-value contract.  
  • "Burnett might suddenly be the best free-agent starter left," writes Jeff Sullivan for Fangraphs.  Burnett has had a better WAR over the last two seasons than Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana and Bronson Arroyo, and teams would be more amenable to signing Burnett to a short-term deal than taking a chance on a longer-term commitment to Jimenez or Santana.

Quick Hits: Prospects, Cruz, Yoon, Madson, Baker

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MLB.com's Jim Callis has an interesting breakdown of the dollars committed to the game's top prospects. Over $228MM has already been committed by teams to the prospects listed among MLB.com's top 100. Meanwhile, ESPN.com's Keith Law has released his own prospect rankings (Insider links), naming the Astros' system as the game's best and tabbing Byron Buxton of the Twins as the best overall prospect. In his own top 101 prospects list, Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus agrees with Buxton as the top choice, which certainly appears to be the consensus. And Baseball America has completed its listing of the ten best prospects by team.

Here are some more links from around the game:

  • The Twins are keeping tabs on free agent outfielder Nelson Cruz, tweets Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN, but are a long shot to land him. Minnesota is probably only interested if Cruz drops his price fairly significantly, Wolfson adds, guessing that the club would probably only be involved at two years with an average annual value at or below the $10MM mark.
  • Likewise, the Twins are waiting for the price to fall on South Korean hurler Suk-min Yoon, Wolfson reports (Twitter links). When Wolfson floated the number of two years and $10MM total to his source, he was told that cost was likely too steep for Minnesota.
  • Free agent reliever Ryan Madson plans to hold a full public workout on February 7th, reports Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com (Twitter links). The 33-year-old threw yesterday for an unknown club that is reportedly a leading candidate to land him, Crasnick adds. 
  • Starter Scott Baker chose the Mariners over offers from the Indians, Rangers, and Royals, reports Wolfson (via Twitter). The Twins never had interest in a reunion, Wolfson adds.
  • Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers were discussing a deal in the range of $200MM to $205MM over the summer, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. By waiting until he wrapped up a Cy Young campaign, Kershaw was able to secure a deal with a $215MM guarantee.

David Ortiz Seeking One-Year Extension With Red Sox

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WEDNESDAY: Ortiz said today that he is only looking to add an additional year to his deal, telling WEEI.com's Rob Bradford (writeup courtesy of WEEI.com's Alex Speier) that discussions had been productive and pleasant. Ortiz said that the club would "come back to me with their answer at some point," and that "everything is going well." 

The club has indicated that it does want to get a deal done, according to the slugger. "[CEO and president Larry Lucchino] was telling me you are the priority for us, so we want to do whatever it takes to do the right thing," said Ortiz. "I believe in them. I hope this doesn't have to be something that gets to be a distraction. I hope that we get to where we want to be, where we need to be, before the season has started. I was expecting that before spring training started, to be honest with you … ." Be sure to check out the piece for more comments from Ortiz.

MONDAY: Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz said yesterday that he wants to retire with the club, but indicated in a television interview with Steve Burton of Boston's CBS4 (quotes via Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com) that a new deal may be necessary for that to occur. When asked what would happen if the Sox were not willing to offer him multiple years, Ortiz responded: "Time to move on."

Of course, it is not clear just what kind of multi-year guarantee Ortiz has in mind. He has previously made clear that he wanted to avoid a lame duck contract season, which could mean that he simply hopes to tack another season onto the back of his present deal. Ortiz will earn $15MM in 2014 as part of the two-year contract he inked back in November of 2012.

Ortiz also said that he is happy with the Red Sox and has every intention of staying put. "As long as they keep offering me a job an I keep doing what I'm supposed to do and the relationship keeps building up," said Ortiz, "I'm going to be there. Hopefully, I won't have to go and wear another uniform."

But the 11-year Fenway resident also made clear that he will continue playing so long as he is performing, and certainly did not rule out the possibility of continuing his career with another club. When asked whether he could envision wearing another uniform, Ortiz responded: "I haven't seen it but if I have to, I've got no choice, I'm not going to quit. As long as I keep hitting the ball the way I have, I've got to keep on giving it a try."

At 38 years of age, Big Papi is still a force at the plate. Last year, in 600 regular season plate appearances, Ortiz posted a 309/.395/.564 triple-slash and 30 home runs. Then, he topped the year off with a ridiculous .688/.760/1.188 line in 25 World Series plate appearances, making him an easy choice for series MVP. Boston GM Ben Cherington recently indicated that the club has interest in working on a new deal and ultimately hopes to keep Ortiz in town until the end of his playing days.

Lance Berkman To Retire

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Lance Berkman has confirmed that his playing career is over and that he will retire, reports MLB.com's Richard Justice (Twitter links). The 37-year-old had been expected to hang up his spikes.

Berkman has seen action in fifteen MLB seasons, posting an outstanding .943 OPS over his 7,814 big league plate appearances. He stands at 47th all-time with a 144 wRC+, nestled amongst a group of Hall-of-Fame caliber players. The switch-hitter swung well from the right side, but was devastating from the left. Over his career, Berkman put up a .304/.420/.575 triple-slash against righties, including 316 of his 366 total home runs.

Berkman ended his career with a disappointing 2013 run with the Rangers. He got on base at a .340 clip, but struggled to a career-low .359 slugging percentage over his 294 plate appearances. Hampered by injuries, including hip and knee issues, Berkman can retire comfortable in the knowledge that he was still an excellent player in his last full season of work. In 2011 with the Cardinals, Berkman was good for a .301/.412/.547 triple-slash with 31 home runs while still playing the outfield on a daily basis. 

Berkman did most of his damage, of course, for an Astros team that was among the best in baseball during much of his peak. In the aggregate, Baseball-Reference pegs Berkman's career value at 52.8 WAR, while Fangraphs puts it at 55.8 WAR. The Big Puma earned a total of just over $124MM during his time in the bigs.

Bronson Arroyo Says He Has Yet To Receive An Offer

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In spite of interest from twelve clubs, free agent starter Bronson Arroyo says that he has yet to receive an actual hard offer from a club, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reports. "I am a guy who's performed for the last 10 years as consistently as anybody in the game," said Arroyo. "And for some reason, nobody's thrown me an offer yet."

Approaching his age-37 season, Arroyo is represented by Terry Bross. He has posted an earned run average of less than four runs per nine innings in four of his last five seasons, and has made at least 32 starts in every season since 2005. Last year, in 202 innings, Arroyo posted a 3.79 ERA and 5.5 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9.

The pitcher's statements are somewhat surprising in light of the widespread interest he has reportedly received. The veteran's name has been amongst the most-mentioned on MLBTR, in large part due to his outstanding record of durability. 

Most recently, Arroyo was said to have fielded two-year offers from no fewer than four clubs, with the market slowly coming around to the idea of giving him a third. The widespread perception on Arroyo has been that he was simply waiting to find another guaranteed year.

Indeed, it is not clear whether Arroyo's claim — he said that he does not "even have an offer to turn down" – is impacted by his stance on what kinds of offers he would be open to receiving. Stark reports that Arroyo spent most of the offseason asking for three years with a guarantee exceeding $30MM. Though Stark does not name the current asking price on Arroyo, an executive predicts that he'll get around $10MM per year over a two-year term, with an option year on the end.

Of course, in his profile of Arroyo's free agent case, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes predicted that the veteran would land a two year deal at $12MM per season. As Dierkes argued back in September, a two year deal was likely the most that could be expected, given Arroyo's age.

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