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Extension Candidate: Josh Harrison

By Steve Adams | September 11, 2014 at 8:36pm CDT

Asked to create a list of candidates for the 2014 NL batting title five months ago, few would have seriously suggested Pirates utilityman Josh Harrison. However, it’s September 11th, and the .318 mark that Harrison carried into the day paced the National League. A decline in performance for Pedro Alvarez and an eventual season-ending injury for the slugging third baseman have opened the door for Harrison to serve as the club’s everyday option at the hot corner down the stretch — an opportunity on which he has capitalized. Though the 27-year-old Harrison had never even topped 276 plate appearances prior to this season, he’s tallied 472 and should finish the season well north of 500.

"<strongThe Pirates acquired Harrison with little fanfare in the 2009 trade that sent Tom Gorzelanny and John Grabow to the Cubs and watched him produce steady batting average and on-base percentage marks as he ascended the minor league ranks. However, while his glovework graded out favorably heading into the season, he also carried a career slash line of just .250/.282/.367 into 2014.

Harrison hasn’t drastically changed his approach at the plate — his swing and contact rates are similar to his previous marks — but he’s slightly increased his walk rate, cut down on his pop-ups and laced line drives at a career-high rate. On top of that, Harrison has found some power despite never hitting more than six homers in a minor league season. He’s swatted 13 long balls and posted a .196 isolated power mark even though he plays at PNC Park, which is known to significantly diminish right-handed pop. The end result has been an outstanding .318/.351/.514 batting line to go along with those 13 homers, 17 steals and strong defensive marks.

Harrison has cleared three years of Major League service time now and will be eligible for arbitration this offseason. Clearly, an NL batting title, 15 or so homers and 20 or so steals will help his agents at Millennium Sports Management make a strong case. However, first-time arb salaries are based on a player’s entire career to that point, unlike second- and third-time arb salaries which are based more on a player’s most recent season. With the agents likely touting an elite platform season and the team likely pointing to earlier seasons to drive the cost down, a multi-year contract might be worth examining. Pittsburgh would get cost certainty, while Harrison would receive financial security in the event that he does not replicate his brilliant 2014.

Of course, from the Pirates’ point of view, they may look at Harrison as a player whose most consistent attributes are defense and baserunning — two aspects that, while valuable, are not highly rewarded in arbitration. While he does have a career-high in homers, the Pirates could also look to Harrison’s average fly-ball distance of 279.98 feet — 136th in the Majors according to BaseballHeatMaps.com — and the fact that seven of his 13 homers fall into the “just enough” category on ESPN’s Hit Tracker. Those two stats suggest that he may have difficulty sustaining this level of power, which would subsequently deflate his arb prices in future cases. A low-payroll team like the Pirates may express hesitancy at over-committing in the event that his power numbers won’t stay this high.

As such, Harrison and the Pirates may have trouble reaching common ground should either side look to pursue a long-term deal that buys out free agent years. The Pirates will cite Harrison’s short track record and reliance on defense and baserunning to provide value. Harrison’s agents, meanwhile, will likely position him as a breakout player and could point to five- or six-year pacts signed by other infielders in the past year or so. However, even a similar late bloomer like Matt Carpenter had an excellent 2012 season and a fourth-place MVP finish in 2013 before signing his six-year, $52MM contract. Harrison has just one elite season.

While Harrison isn’t the first player to jump from utility player to All-Star (though the feat certainly isn’t common), few, if any players have found themselves in his situation and his service bracket and ultimately inked a long-term deal. A look at extensions for infielders with three to four years of service time shows few deals that serve as comparables. Pablo Sandoval signed a three-year, $17.5MM to buy out his arb years at the same stage of his career, but he had a much better offensive profile at that point. Elvis Andrus’ original three-year, $14.4MM extension was signed when he had an even three years of Major League service. He lacked an offensive season in the vein of Harrison’s excellent 2014, but he had a longer track record of providing value.

The Pirates are one of baseball’s most cost-conscious teams, and as such there would seem to be some benefit to securing Harrison’s arbitration paydays, and for a player with no track record prior to 2014, I’d think that holds some appeal to him as well. Perhaps the two sides could work out a three-year deal in the $15-16MM range to provide Harrison with a lifetime of financial security but still position him to hit free agency at a relatively young age in search of a significant payday. While Pittsburgh would undoubtedly have interest in adding a club option that could push the total value of the contract into the Michael Brantley range (four years, $25MM) if exercised, that doesn’t seem to be a worthwhile trade-off for player and agent, even if the buyout was fairly significant.

Beyond Harrison’s three arbitration years, the situation feels to this writer like one in which the team’s lack of margin for error (due to payroll constraints) makes betting on Harrison’s surprise breakout a bit too risky to pay him like the late-blooming star he could very well be. Of course, there’s risk for the team to pass on a long-term deal as well; if Harrison is capable of sustaining something close to this level of production, his price tag on a long-term deal a year from now could exceed that of Carpenter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Extension Candidates Josh Harrison MLBTR Originals Newsstand Pittsburgh Pirates

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Comments

  1. Nathan Boley

    7 years ago

    I can’t speak highly enough of Harrison this season. If you haven’t gotten the chance to watch him yet, try to. He’s an excellent defender at third, gets huge hits on a nightly basis and is insanely aggressive on the basepaths. He really deserves some love in the MVP voting. I hope he finishes top 5.

    Like
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    • LazerTown

      7 years ago

      He doesn’t really deserve to be top 5, and he won’t. McCutchen rightfully will take the votes.

      Like
      Reply
      • Nathan Boley

        7 years ago

        If I had a ballot for MVP, my top 5 would be Kershaw, Stanton, Cutch, Lucroy and Harrison.

        Like
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        • vtadave

          7 years ago

          I’d probably put Posey in there instead of Harrison, but wouldn’t argue either way.

          Like
          Reply
  2. Bob George

    7 years ago

    I’m glad to see him succeeding. I was a fan of his when he was in the Cubs minor league system. With his glove he should be a solid everyday 3b for someone even if his hitting comes back down a bit. I always viewed him as a Vance Law type with better contact.

    Like
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  3. LazerTown

    7 years ago

    I don’t see it. He has had a fantastic year, but I would be pretty confident there is at least some regression. He is also 27 already, sometimes it’s better going year to year, it’s not like a player you hoping breaks out. He is in his prime, this is it.

    Like
    Reply
    • jb226

      7 years ago

      I agree, go AT LEAST one year into arbitration before you consider an extension. His performance is strangely dominating for a guy whose peripherals haven’t really changed, and the Pirates aren’t a team that can easily afford mistakes in who they give contracts to.

      If he has a performance like this again next year, that’s fantastic. It gives the Pirates all kinds of options. He’s still an extension candidate (admittedly for more money); they can continue going year-to-year for at least two more years; or they have a great trade chip if other options emerge.

      Like
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    • $21621694

      7 years ago

      Exactly, great year. Remember he wasn’t valued higher than a bench player

      Like
      Reply
  4. Randy Hebert

    7 years ago

    I think it would be a mistake to extend him. This is probably as good as it gets.

    Like
    Reply
  5. bucsws2014

    7 years ago

    The Bucs need every dime they can send in Russell Martin’s direction. And they’ll need at least one starting pitcher, maybe two if both Liriano and Volquez leave.
    Josh is having a tremendous year, but there’s no reason to do an extension at this time.
    That said, he does deserve some down ballot consideration for MVP. I’d say he’s top 5 behind Kershaw, Stanton, Cutch and Lucroy. Bucs aren’t in WC spot without him.

    Like
    Reply
  6. 108 stitches

    7 years ago

    I hope the Pirates do give him a three year extension at least. He has been extremely fun to watch and more importantly provided great value to the Bucs this year. It would sure seem he has earned some security going forward. Plus I think it’s in the Pirates best interest.

    Like
    Reply
  7. Luke Levi

    7 years ago

    If the pirates make the playoffs, Harrison for mvp…..Yes, Cutch, Kershaw, and Posey have better numbers, but Josh was a shot in the arm when the bucs where anemic….he wasn’t even a full time starter and produced….this guy is what Marte should of been this year. In a short amount of time he’s been the most valuable….

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