After spending much of the offseason searching for a rotation upgrade, the Cardinals on Tuesday added a much-needed arm to the equation, announcing the signing of right-hander Mike Leake to a five-year deal. Leake, a client of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, will reportedly take home a guarantee of $80MM. His contract also includes a mutual option that can escalate the deal to $93MM and a full no-trade clause. Via CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman (on Twitter), Leake’s contract has a somewhat unusual sloped structure — he will receive $12MM in 2016, $15MM in 2017, $17MM in 2018, $16MM in 2019, $15MM in 2020, then an $18MM option or a $5MM buyout in 2021.
Having lost right-hander John Lackey to free agency — specifically, to the division-rival Cubs — and right-hander Lance Lynn to Tommy John surgery, St. Louis’ need for starting pitching was clear. The Cardinals began their search with a high-profile pursuit of David Price and even made the second-best offer to ace left-hander. But, while their seven-year offer edged out the rival Cubs, it was still worth $30MM less than that of the Red Sox.
Over the last few weeks, the Cardinals have continued to scan the market, though they were known to be averse to signing any player who had rejected the qualifying offer. Quality pitchers like Yovani Gallardo, Ian Kennedy, and Wei-Yin Chen are still available as of this writing, but the Cardinals were not terribly interested in sacrificing a draft pick in order to sign any of them. The Cardinals were also keeping an eye on Scott Kazmir, but he almost certainly will not be signing in St. Louis now.
In 2015, for the second consecutive year, Leake posted a 3.70 ERA, marking three straight seasons with a sub-3.75 ERA and at least 190 innings. All but two months of those three years came while pitching his home games at an extremely hitter-friendly home venue: Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. Leake was able to thrive in large part due to his excellent control (2.3 BB/9 for his career) and his strong ground-ball rate. Leake’s 50.2 percent career mark in that regard is impressive, and it’s ticked upwards over the past two seasons, now siting closer to 53 percent. And, though he has just one season of 200-plus innings, Leake has been virtually injury free throughout his career.
However, in an age where velocity and strikeouts are being emphasized more than ever, Leake doesn’t bring either to the table. His career-best K/9 rate is 2014’s 6.9, and he averaged just 5.6 K/9 in 2015. Leake has added some life to his fastball each year, but this season’s 90.9 mph average still rated below the 91.7 mph league average for starting pitchers.
Leake has owned right-handed hitters over the past two seasons, but he’s had less success against lefties, and that’s been a trend throughout his career. He’s yielded a .274/.324/.444 batting line to lefties throughout his big league tenure. Some of that should be taken with a grain of salt, as those numbers aren’t park-adjusted, but that’s still the rough equivalent of Evan Longoria’s 2015 batting line — hardly an ideal result.
Nevertheless, Leake’s addition to the rotation will give the Cardinals stability that they previously lacked. While young arms such as Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez and Marco Gonzales each possess undeniable upside — Martinez and Wacha have displayed much of that potential in the Majors already — each comes with some injury concerns. Another highly talented arm, Jaime Garcia, has proven to be injury prone. While the Cardinals exercised his $11.5MM club option for the 2016 season earlier this winter, the team still can’t rely on him for 200-plus innings. In Leake, the Cardinals will solidify one of the middle spots in their rotation by adding a pitcher that has proven to be a consistent source of 30-plus starts and 190-plus innings each season.
As an added means of value, Leake was a noted two-way player in college, and his experience as an infielder makes him a solid defender on the mound and an above-average bat, relative to his mound peers. In 411 career plate appearances, Leake is a .212/.235/.310 hitter. Those numbers are unsightly when compared to the rest of the league but dwarf the 2015 league-average batting line for pitchers: .131/.158/.168. Because Leake was traded from the Reds to the Giants midway through the 2015 season, he won’t cost the Cardinals a draft pick. St. Louis will preserve its first-rounder and, in fact, have three picks in the top 40 or so selections next year thanks to the picks acquired as compensation for losing Lackey and Jason Heyward to the Cubs.
Depending on the yearly breakdown, Leake’s contract — which is an exact match with MLBTR’s predictions on our Top 50 free agent list and Leake’s free agent profile — should bring the Cardinals’ Opening Day payroll to about $122MM, which would match last year’s Opening Day mark. The Cardinals are well-positioned to add a long-term commitment to the ledger, as the team has just three players — Adam Wainwright, Matt Carpenter and Jedd Gyorko — under guaranteed contracts beyond the 2017 season.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported the agreement and the financial details (links to Twitter).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Leake is a what the cards need. A #4 who throws innings and ground ball outs.
Nooooooooooooooooooooo. It’s better than absolutely nothing, but this isn’t terribly exciting. Would have preferred Kazmir.
I think STL needs innings certainty. Kazmir is a bit fragile and typically throws only 160-180 innings even in healthy years.
This is a good point. But if Kazmir could be had for a lower price, then why not Kazmir + Buerhle? Buerhle at one year gives time for Reyes et. al. to develop and Lynn to get healthy.
Buerhle isn’t a guarantee to play since he might retire.
Most SPs in MLB give you 160-180 innings, that’s normal.
Kazmir has reached the lower end of that just four times. He is coming off back-to-back 30 start seasons for the first time in his career at age 31. He is not what I would call an innings-eater.
Kazmir is fragile without hitting. Now got wanna put a bat in his hands and have him hit and run the field too? Probably better off with Leake.
Nice way to replace lynn
Wainwright
Leake
Wacha
Martinez
Garcia
Would have been nice to just get Buehrle on a one year deal and worry about rotation upgrades or promotion next year but hey, I’m glad they went out and did something. Can never have too much pitching.
I would have preferred to have kazmir for 3 or 4 years
As a Reds fan who hated to see Leake traded, he makes a nice addition for Cards. Not a power pitcher, but his consistency as a crafty starter continues to improve. Also, did not loose draft pick. Only issue for me is length of deal- 5 years maybe too long.
he is pretty young, early free agent. I think at around 16 mill per, you should get good value for the money
Chen must be worth 100mil now.
Wow, didn’t pick Leake as a guy who would get close to $100M, especially after how bad he was in SF.
Great sign, but again I do think the cardinals are gonna need another bat after this sign, I know it’s Leake who signed but Holliday is not the same as he was 3 years ago. I would love to see them sign Parra or Gordon, I think parra would be a nice lead off bat for them who is also lefty but Gordon has pop and a better defensive side to him. Although parra does have a great glove and speed.
I have to say that even though the Cardinals offseason has been pretty sad so far. At least they are making an effort to sign the right people and not panic by overpaying a Chris Davis. Silver lining for this offseason is Cards fans get to see Grichuk and Piscotty get a full years worth of at bats. Grichuk could easily be a 30+ HR guy and Piscotty is capable of hitting 20+ HR. Who knows maybe with Holiday playing on a contract year he can pull together some of that old power.
The Cards outfield has the same problem as their rotation – health. If Holliday is going to seriously be able to play some 1B, I think they need to add a reliable OF power bat to the mix. If they do that, for all the panicking that fans have undertaken, they’re rotation will be just as talented as last year’s, the bench will be stronger, and the offense should at least hold steady.
They are stronger in the OF than you think. With Pham in the mix, and Moss another option they have 5 guys to rotate and/or platoon.
Piscotty has shown the ability to play first base well, so against lefties, he can shift there. Holliday’s skill set just doesn’t fit well as a first baseman, so I doubt if he plays there except in a pinch, plus Pena is also an option there if necessary.
Only Pham has shown the propensity of injury. The others are no greater risk than other players. The Cards are set in the outfield, and much better there than most predict.
Cardinals already said Holiday would not be playing 1B and he did that on his own to see if he could stretch out his career in the future. Moss/Adams/Piscotty will be at 1B
You seem to be making a lot of assumptions. Rookies tend to see a dip in numbers their second year in the league. Even if one of these guys gets 30 HRs it doesn’t mean that will replace heywards value. HRs are great to see but it doesn’t always amount to a higher WAR
I was really hoping the Jays would have signed him.
His ground ball rate, and The Blue Jays infield would have been a good fit.
Im surprised by the amount of money and years given to him, but he is a good investment. They really needed an inning eater, and he doesn’t have a injury-filled career like Garcia. Good job Mo, now for a bat (hopefully)….
The only possible need is a right-handed hitting first baseman. But with Piscotty, Goryko, and Pena all capable of handing the position, I doubt if they look to sign anyone. If they carry 12 pitchers and plan on Diaz or Garcia to make the 25 man roster, they don’t have room for another player.
What with the current market trend on starting pitching, I’m not surprised at the money/years given.
Leake’s FIP is pretty ghastly over his career. Any thoughts on how it will trend when he moves away from a pretty solid infield defense?
Youre getting warm…
This might be the worst signing of this offseason. Leake should have barely sniffed 4/$60M. His FIP in his career is kind of bad and he doesnt strike anyone out. Kazmir for 4 years is a far superior option.
I disagree. FIP is grossly weighted to strikeout guys, and penalizes HR allowed. Leake walks few, Challenges hitters inside, and thus allows a fair amount of HR, many of which are solo shots. He won’t be hurling in the GAB bandbox, will benefit from Molina guiding him, and will be aided by the Cards DP capabilities.
He is a much better athlete than Kazmir, takes the ball everyday, something that Kazmir cannot be counted on doing, is 2 years younger, with many fewer innings taxing his arm.
A much better choice than Kazmir, all things considered.
Leake is is closer to four years younger. FIP isn’t meant to be perfect. It merely suggests a pitcher could be worse or better than what his actual ERA is. Leake performs better than his FIP regularly so it isn’t a good indicator for him.
It’s now recognized that pitchers do have some control over their BABIP. While FIP may help recognize a fluky season, over the course of his career, a pitcher’s actual ERA is a better indicator than his FIP.. Since Leake regularly outperforms his FIP, it probably means he has the actual skill to continue to do so.
He’s held righties to a .254 AVG in one of the most hitter friendly ballparks in the majors. He should be just fine in STL.
Why look at his FIP when you can look at his ERA?
Ignoring the fact that FIP is a pretty flawed indicator on its own that fails to account for line drive and ground ball rates, Leake’s numbers will probably improve with a more spacious ballpark and another very solid infield defense.
shark gets more then leake who would have thought
Everybody? Shark’s a lot better than Leake.
No he is not…
Lol yes he most definitely is..
If shark gets his SO/9 back around 8 I like his chances to have a better year than Leake.
So Shark and Leake have roughly the same WHIP over their careers. Shark has a little worse ERA but a little better FIP. Leake has shown a more consistent WHIP the last few years and Shark had his best season in 2014 and one of his worst in 2015. Overall Shark shows more glimpses of greatness as well as more of being just darn terrible but his consistency lies in pitching well over 200 innings for the past few years compared to Leakes just under 200. Essentially the Giants paid more for the more proven player with the higher upside at unfortunately 3 years older than Leake. The Cardinals out their money down on consistency, not on potential greatness. In 5 years Leake will probably look like the better pitcher, or he could fizzle out into a nobody through injuries and mediocrity. Shark likely won’t fizzle, he will either be good and a valuable pitcher or be a terrible pitcher who loses his stuff and he could be either of those toward the end of his contract.
This is the price you pay now for durability and consistency, even if its not overwhelming. With all the injuries to that rotation and the money he’s getting he’ll definitely the the #2 or #3 in the rotation. Even though his stuff doesn’t profile at the top of a rotation, he’s been good at limiting damage, With this addition they have a solid 1,2,3 that should be dependable. Garcia and Martinez probably can’t be counted on to pitch whole seasons(And i think this signing is proof they’re worried about that shoulder) and its possible the young guns aren’t quite ready. Lyon’s can handle some early games and gonzales maybe later. Solid signing for a dependable 28 year old.
Pretty scary deal. 5 years guaranteed with a Full no trade clause. Cards and their fans better hope he maintains at least where he is at now for 5 years.
This has Barry Zito 2.0 written all over it, but then again Zito won rings in spite of his terrible performance in SF, maybe Leake will too? Who knows. At least he still gets to show off his lumber in the NL.
Zito got 38 million more 9 years ago
Ten thumbs up.
Ok, that’s a bit if an overreaction. And I’m not a big fan of the signing. Liked Kazmir better.
No comparison. Zito was elite and slid down to horrible. Leake does not rely on extreme heat and strikeouts. Leake is a durable slight above avaergae pitcher and should stay that way. Cards pitching staff may even help him a little to offset an average defensive infield behind him. Leake may not have the best makeup (e.g., shoplifting), but he will be surrounded by solid players. I think this is a solid but not spectacular signing. Cards will have the tools to win 95 games in 2016, which will at least get them a wild card berth and a spirited race with the Cubbies.
He’s really bad against lefties. So look at the Cubs lineups … Rizzo (lefty), Schwarber (lefty), Heyward (lefty), Zobrist (switchy), Montero (lefty).
I hope Cubs match up with Leake 3 or 4 times next year!
Why do we not pitch lefty starters?! With the exception of the constantly hurt Garcia, the Cards seem to never place any value in them. Yet they tear us up year after year!
Maybe because you never actually need a lefty in your rotation. The Cardinals know this from experience, seeing as how they won 105 games and the NL Pennant in 2004, marched through the 2006 playoffs to a World Series Championship, and won back-to-back division titles (as well as another NL Pennant) in 2013 & 2014 without any lefty starters.
Leake is a solid addition to the Cardinals lineup, and the losses of both Lackey and Lynn made this a necessary signing – despite the return of Wainwright. Still, I don’t think this really closes the gap between the Cubs and Cardinals all that much. It basically gets their pitching staff back to a similar spot they were in last year, but they still need to replace Heyward (not necessarily by signing an outfielder, but they need another bat somewhere in that lineup.) And even if the Cardinals find that bat to bring their offense back to where it was a year ago, the Cubs improvements this off-season can’t go ignored. The Cardinals need to improve from 2015, not just get back to where they were…
Grichuk is Heywards replacement has just as much potential and way more power for a fraction of the $$ J-Hey is making.
And a fraction of the WAR Heyward will generate in 2016. Let’s hope Grichuk doesn’t fall down as much as Steamer projects.
Yeah because Heyward played 160 games. Grichuk played half a season last year and hit 17HR (6 more HR than J-Hey). He has shown to be an above average defender as well. Ill be interested to see Grichuks WAR after a full year.
“… will generate in 2016.” I am not talking about 2015 and I am assuming both players will play 150-155 games.
RedFeather, you’re forgetting the defense. Heyward’s incredible defense and above average offense has put him in the top ten most valuable players over the last few years.
I think Grichuk will be very good offensively if he can stay healthy. I have my concerns on whether he can post better than average defense.
Time will tell but I do know that Heyward is not worth the contract he got. Im for one am happy the Cardinals missed on that signing. I really think we dodged a bullet.. and good luck with the Cubs signing their young talent with Heyward and Lester’s contracts.
The Cubs get out frm underneath the rules placed on them by the debt from the tribune ompany and they will get the billion dollar TV deal before the rooks become free agents.But I agere,they wont be able to keep all of them.
I like some friendly conversation among rivals.
I was expecting Heyward to command 10 years and 225 mm given that he’s just entering his prime. Speculation on how defense projects probably kept his price tag lower. Not too long ago Fangraphs wrote a Heyward Valuation and argued he’d be worth more than 300 mm.
Chances are Heyward will opt out. Even if he doesn’t, the Cubs get a new TV deal around 2019, before Bryant and others become a free agent.
The problem with this is that the Cubs signed him to be a CF thus actually diminishing his defensive value. He is an average defender in center while a plus plus defender in right.
Albeit a small sample size, Heyward has been quite nearly as good in center field. In fact, given the positional adjustment, Heyward’s bat in center field more than makes up for the slight difference in defensive value.
What do you mean? Grichuk did play above-average defense before his injury, and he very well could hit 30 HRs along with a ton of doubles and triples over a full season of at bats. Then you’ve got a full year of Piscotty, a healthy Holliday and Adams, and another year of experience for Wong, and the offense is already much better than it was last year without doing a single thing!
An aging Holliday and Molina probably won’t hit too well.
Also, Grichuk posted just about average defense according to Fangraphs, and is projected for slightly below average defense next season.
That could definitely change, but the projectilns constitute the best information we have at this point.
Seems like the Cardinals were getting desperate to regain some of what they lost and instead made perhaps a poor decisions (a mediocre one at best). In any event they improved their offense.
I’m tired of the term, innings eater. go sign a winner. st louis pitching philosophy is, go give me a 100 pitches and get me through the 5th inning.
100 wins last year and consistently top of the division, I’d say whatever philosophy they have works!
Innings eaters win lots of games over the course of the season. Take Rosenthal out of the equation and nobody in the Cards’ pen scares anyone. Getting a reliable starter that can get you through 6 innings every 5th day regardless if his “stuff” isnt overwhelming saves at least 20-30 innings from your bullpen over the year and gives the team a chance to have save situations and use Rosenthal more frequently.
So a power lefty setup man with a 2.17 ERA and over a strikeout an inning is no longer scary?
The good thing for the Cards is that he is an innings eater.He wont win games by himself but wont lose them either.The bad thing is the money invested I think will take them out of the running for one of the premiere bats on the market.
Leake really wanted to pitch on the west side, so Mo likely had to overpay to extract him from that region. He’s reliable, non injury-prone, and doesn’t cost a draft pick. He is what the rotation needs right now. He’ll also serve as a bridge to the next generation of starters within STL’s system.
I don’t understand all the whining? If it is an overpay, it’s not by very much.
You could have had Kazmir for half that money and less years aka a truer “bridge” than youre talking about.
Just Another Fan:
I agree with all of your comments. Kazmir would have been the better move.
So the pitcher who is 31 yrs old (3 years older), has a higher career ERA and WHIP, and is more injury prone is a better option??? In what universe?
No kidding
He’s also reportedly cheaper, would be signed to a shorter contract (Cards need a year or two, not 5) ,threw 180 innings in 2014 and 190 in 2015, is a lefty, and is a legitimate 3 WAR pitcher.
But yeah, let’s just look at ERA and call it a day.
Kazmir is the better pitcher and, more importantly, would have signed for $40-45M instead of $80M.
It’s actually 4 years. Leake just turned 28 – Kazmir is about to turn 32. Someone suggested Leake’s contract will look bad in 3 years….hate to tell that guy – in 3 years he’ll be younger than Kazmir is now – so Kazmir’s contract must look bad immediately IHHO.
Cards don’t need 5 years? Are they going to turn off the lights after 2017? I’m pretty sure they will still b playing in 4 years and will need starting pitching. What exactly are you trying to say?
I am saying that the Cardinals have Reyes in the near pipeline and I hope they can spend their money on better FAs than Leake. They also have Cooney/Gonzales who may improve with more time, and Weaver and Flaherty a bit further off. This is a guy who will be okay, not good, not great, once every five days, for the next five years.
I might throw up. Give me some hope.
Lackey leaves for 16 million a year and we get a draft pick. Cards get this guy that is young for 16 million without giving up a draft pick. He is in the prime of his career and should give them innings.
Difference is the Cubs only have to put up with Lackey’s mediocrity for 2 years, whereas the Cards have to put up with Leake’s mediocrity for the next half decade. And if, hopefully, Lackey has another year in him like he had in 2015 the Cubs made out like bandits. Hijacking the 2 best players on the Cards team from last year. I call that a win.
As for Leake though. One would think he’d do better in STL since he’s played his whole career in the little league park that is Great American Ballpark. But then again in his 9 starts in the VERY pitcher friendly ATT Park he was actually worse, so who knows. His career 4.21 FIP is pretty god awful though….. so maybe he is as mediocre as he appears to be.
I don’t understand everyone bashing leake. Sure, he isn’t David Price or Cueto, but he’s a solid #3-4 that’s going to throw 190+ innings for the Birds, and he should slightly be better moving into a pitchers park at Busch. With the rest of the rotation being a complete question mark (Waino is in decline, needs to prove healthy again, Wacha has all the potential in the world but still needs to put it all together, Martinez needs to show he can throw 180 innings, and Garcia is held together with bubble gum and wishes) the Cards need exactly what Leake offers. With the going rate of SPs, I think this is a great signing and doesn’t break the bank in the future either
Agreed. Love his bat too. Moving into Busch can only help his HR problem. Cincy wasn’t known as the Great American Launching Pad without a reason. At worst this guy is a #4 pitcher, at best a # 2.
And here I was hoping that it would turn out to be less than $75 over 5 and it is actually $80 over 5 with an unknown option (could be player) for $18mm.
Holy wow this is bad.
Kind of a delayed knee jerk reaction to losing on Heyward and Price. But they spent money!!!! – that will be the line from the FO.
Would have rather given Price $250mm to beat out Boston, though I think he would have taken Cards over Boston if St. Louis straight up matched Boston’s offer.
So the Cardinals just signed a pitcher with a career 3.88 ERA depite pitching the majority of his career in a little league park. The cards give up 16 million a year, and don’t lose any draft picks. This was a good signing. It also allows the Cards to keep resources they can use to try to acquire a big time bat. I would still look for Cargo or Prince in a Cardinals uniform next season.
Couldn’t agree more with your comments about the signing. People just love to 2nd guess and complain about every signing. If they had signed Price those same people would be complaining about the 200 mil.
as a Cards fan who lives in Dallas, I would hope they would NOT try to get Prince. Although he had a good season in 2015 rebounding from injury, his power numbers have clearly declined the last few years even when healthy. Only 22 HR’s in a park like Texas isn’t nothing to get excited about. He’s a slug in the field which is why he is the Rangers DH. He’ll turn 32 in May and this was the age his dad started to fade. In fact, Cecil was out of baseball by age 35 and even though the Tigers are picking up a lot of his paycheck, he’s still making a huge amount of money.
He has had great success against the Pirates including recent success, can not really say he has faced this incarnation of the Cubs that much but he also has a track record of success against them, he obviously is comfortable in the division.
Isit an overpay?Sure it is,but thats the going rate now for #4’s and 5’s.This signing will be bad in three years like the Shark,Price,Grienke deals will be..Just the way baseball contracts are now.I personaly would rather pay the big money to everyday players than one’s that play every 5th day.I know ppl use the Mets beating the Cubs as you need great pitching to win,but to be fair who has pitching like the Mets do and it was against a bunch of rookies batters basicaly.Leake is what he is,a descent pitcherthat wont hurt you but wont carry you either.
Leake is only 28, so a 5 year deal isn’t as much of a risk with him.
Also, you’d be surprised to learn that the average starting position player has a pretty similar number of plate appearances over a full season as the number of batters faced by the average starting pitcher. They only play every five days, but when they do play they’re much more important towards determining the outcome of the game.
I wouldn’t use the Mets to say you need to pay big money to pitchers. Actually the opposite. They were using guys that came up through the farm system.
None of DeGrom, Harvey, Syndergaard, or Matz are getting big money. Now they will at some point in their career but I think that young controllable pitchers can lead to the same success as proven starters at a much more affordable cost. The Blue Jays were suckered into giving up Syndergaard and D’Arnaud and I’m sure they wish they could take it back.
Leake is comparable to Jon Niese if you check their fWAR since 2011. The Pirates got Niese at 3/30 essentially. Cards get Leake at 5/80. This is a bit of an overpay but it filled a need and Leake is reliable so it isn’t that egregious of a signing.
Let’s not forget it’s 3 year at 30 million and one year of Neil Walker.
Hmmmm…..very interesting stat/article:
m.stltoday.com/sports/columns/benjamin-hochman/hoc…
To me the most interesting part of the deal is the no trade clause not the money. This leads me to believe we are fixing to see a deal that includes one of the young arms in the system. It might be Marco, Weaver, or Reyes including an Adams or a similar player for prolific bat. I don’t see why Mozeliak guaranteed at least 5 years of Mike Leake if he wasn’t going to trade an arm.
Lyons and Cooney haven’t shown a lot of consistency. I think one (or both?) are trade chips at this point. Marco has to stay healthy, and, if so, he’s their lefty-lefty matchup/long man or just starter depth.
Presumably he gave the no-trade clause because Leake demanded it, not because it means anything regarding other players on the team.
There’s no need to trade an arm. The Cardinals now have 5 starters for 2016 and will probably need the depth behind them with how fragile the other four guys are. If there’s a logjam in 2017, they’ll deal with it then. They could always decline Garcia’s second option year or trade him, and Lynn will likely leave as a free agent after 2017, as well as Garcia if that second option is picked up..
I don’t think it’s a need as much as it is an indication of a plan. When they locked up a pitcher to a 5 year deal it does create the surplus that would lead me to believe they are fixing to ship one or two of the prospects to Colorado. I think we see Marco and Adams in a package for Cargo. The fact you now have Wacha, Carlos, and Leake in the fold for the future we don’t have too many spots remaining for other SPs. You have Reyes, Weaver, and Flaherty to fill the voids of Lynn and Garcia if they aren’t retained. That doesn’t even take Lyons or Cooney in consideration. The length and the no trade just leads me to believe that is in the plans. Morosi’s statement that the we’re engaged in talks with Colorado today only reinforces that belief.
15 million a year! Not to many shoplifters make that kind of money!!
Maybe Winona Ryder.
In 4 years Leake will be the same age Kazmir is now, he can hit and has no injury history.
This is market value, good for the Cards, and good for Leake. As a Reds fan I won’t enjoy seeing him in a Cards uniform but the best of luck to him.
Giants fan here. You guys don’t yet know how good leak is until he plays for you, we definitely did not have them at his best but 80M for 5 years is a bargain. To plug him in at 4th in the rotation is a real luxury. He’s a ground ball and double play machine, hardly ever walks anyone. Very athletic and can hit. Giants really missed the boat not signing him and paid more for a 4.50 era pitcher. Makes no sense. So he doesn’t throw hard? So what, Much less likely to develop serious arm issues. Cardinals fans who are whining now let’s see what you think after he’s played half a season.
Leake is a good young pitcher. He never played in minors. Molina will drop him ERA to at least 3.25 in his time with us. I would love Davis. But how many guys do we have now to play 1st and RF? Looks like we will go into another season with a team that is on the edge with a possible trade at mid season if needed to add power. Problem is Cubs are not playing anymore and we are spoiled fans with spoiled ownership too and money to burn. It’s all about getting the Pirates out of the way. Their young guys are about to be free agents. Then the division will be 2 teams again. But Cubs will be a problem for next 10 years at least.
Good signing. On paper Leake is probably the Cards no.4 guy. With injuries he will probably be their no.3 though. If anyone is expecting Garcia to be as dominant AND healthy in 2016..well, I’m pretty sure this means you sold your soul to Crowley. >=}
Who’s behind him? On paper, Leake is the Cards’ #5 starter. If everyone stays healthy (which is a huge “if”), this is probably the deepest rotation in baseball.
The hidden numbers that matter with Mike Leake:
Career vs. Cubs
19 starts 9-2 W/L 3.15 ERA 1.13 WHIP
Career vs. Pirates
24 starts 8-3 W/L 3.01 ERA 1.20 WHIP
*They surrender no draft pick compensation
That’s it, end of story, it was a good signing
The Cubs numbers don’t mean anything though. They were awful the last 6 years
Numbers are not hidden in baseball. If you look at what he did against this Cub team last year, I wouldn’t be too excited. One really good outing. One average outing. Two horrible outings.
If we put aside all the emotion, this was an ok signing for the Cardinals. Not great, not terrible.
Actually, that Cardinal fan SHOULD be excited if he looks at Leake’s numbers against the Cubs in 2015. They batted .198 and their OBP was .229.
Along with a 4.60 FIP, thanks to five homeruns allowed in his 27 innings against the Cubs last season.
And if you realize that it’s foolish to play around with small sample sizes (since the Cubs have been good for one of the past six seasons), then you should understand that Leake is an average pitcher going up against a juggernaut of a lineup in the Cubs.
Wow hmmm – since you went through all that homework. Make sure you check what “YEARS” that was. Compare apples to apples. Who played for the CuBs then? Yeah I guess you can just go by the name of the team. Lol
The 2015 Cardinals stats for their current Rotation is as follows:
1) Wainwright – (2-1 / 1.44 ERA) – 4 starts
2) Wacha – (17-7 / 3.38 ERA) – 30 starts
3) Martinez ( 14-6 / 3.04 ERA) – 29 starts
4) Leake (11-10 / 3.70 ERA) – 30 starts
5) Garcia – (10-6 / 2.43 ERA) – 20 starts
6) Lyons – (3-1 / 4.10 ERA) – 8 starts
7) Cooney – (1-0 / 3.16 ERA) – 6 starts
8) Gonzales – (0-0 / 13.50 ERA) – 1 start
That’s 58-31 with a combined 3.19 ERA in 128 starts.
34 starts short of 162. (28 would go to Wainwright / 2 to Martinez / 4 split among the rest)
If a rotation stays healthy, the #1 and #2 Pitchers get 32 starts.= #3 gets 31 = #4 gets 30 – #5 gets 25 – The remaining 12 games will go to the likes of Cooney / Lyons and Gonzales.
In short – The Cardinals still have a top 3 starting rotation in MLB)
And when you look at the Cubs signing Lackey, who went 13-10 (3 games over .500) vs the guys he’ll be replacing their starts…
Haren, Wada, Wood, and Richard went 9-5 / 4,13 ERA in 30 starts. – 4 games over .500
The fact that the Cubs starting 5 come 2016 started 161 of 162 games is unheard of.
The Cubs used 11 starters last year, and Arrieta’s 22-6 / 1.77 ERA won’t be repeated.
Heyward’s greatest asset is his DEFENSIVE numbers in RF. Not as a CF.
Losing Fowler and replacing him with Heyward to me is a step backwards.
Fowler as a lead-off hitter had 102 runs, 17 HR, 20 SB and a .757 OPS
Heyward’s numbers with 79 runs, 13 HR, 23 SB and a .798 OPS isn’t impressive over who he’s replacing.
Zobrist, while a good player (great when used as a multi-position player) is now going to be playing 90% at 2B – basically blocking the much younger and promising Javier Baez.
Again, I see that as a step backwards… not to mention losing Castro in the deal as well.
Lose Castro, blocking Baez for a super utility player now going to be used wrong as the primary 2B as well as using the best RF in the game as a mere mostly average CF.
Sorry Cubs fans… while you have a very good team, I don’t really see how you got much better if any… and then to think that Arrieta can repeat last year’s numbers and that you’ll have no injuries is just not realistic.
Fact is, 2015 was the Cubs best chance to have gotten to the WS – and didn’t do it.
I think the Cubs are still just a Wild-Card team, and 2015 was the best shot at winning than it will have in the near future just based on the fact that there will be injuries, there will be “down” years…. and that the Cards and Pirates are due to a healthier team and over-producing seasons by a few of their players.
What can change the Cubs fortunes? Trade Soler for 1 more starter – Re-sign Fowler and put Heyward in RF where he belongs… THEN we can talk about the Cubs being favorites.
The Cubs have the best collection of young talent in the division. That’s not to say the Pirates and Cardinals don’t have good young talent as well, it’s just the Cubs have more of it and it’s of higher quality. Arrieta won’t repeat his 2015, but he’ll still be a 2.50/3 ERA guy, Lester will be Lester, Lackey is a definite improvement over Jason Hammel, and Kyle Hendricks is a really nice 4. Zobrist and Heyward give the Cubs OBP and contact, something they didn’t have last year and the lack of it it stalled their offense last year against the Mets in the NLCS. With young impact talent like Rizzo, Bryant, Russell, Heyward, Schwarb, and even Soler and Baez they are set up for 4-5 years of title contention. To say 2015 was their best shot to win a title I think will prove to be foolish.
My guess is the Cubs aren’t done. I expect them to add another arm. But if they don’t add a center fielder, they diminish Heyward’s WAR considerably. It is possible that he goes off offensively, And if it is Swarber in left and Soler in right, the outfield defense will be seriously challenged.
Maybe they will be able to out slug the competition, but as of today, there are still questions in the back of the rotation, and the pen is a bit iffy.
Regardless of who was pitching and how much you’d like to downplay the Cubs staff, they led the NL in ERA. The bullpen was very shaky near the end, but with the additions towards the end of the year, the bullpen has become one of the best in the game. Another thing, cubs faced some pretty major injury last year that no one likes to mention such as montero being gone for about a month, soler being gone for about two to three, and Motte being gone for the better part of the second half when he was the arguably the best arm in the pen when he went down. Fowler was no where near stellar before coming to the Cubs. He had a career last year because of the team he was playing on, It is more then safe to say that Heyward will do at least close to the same. Arrieta won’t have the same year as last year thats obvious, but in the two full years he’s been in Chicago he’s posted sub 3 era seasons. Lester’s numbers will improve and Lackey will do just fine as the three. Granted, every thing you say is very possible, but thats just thinking negatively
Hmmm, I don’t think Chicago led the NL. I think it was STL.
Definitely was my bad on that, Pit ahead too, but still 3rd best in MLB is better than most people describing the whole team as a bunch of pitching degenerates
Yes, I think people underestimate Chicago’s pitching. However, Arrieta is unlikely to repeat his amazing 2015. Lackey is also likely to see ERA regression. Even if both allow an extra run per 9, which is fairly likely, they are still good pitchers.
Winning a division n 100 games don’t mean much does it. Maybe makes you sleep better. To me it was a complete failure if St L n u lost. Don’t bring up the Mets because we shouldn’t have even been there. Maybe your team should have done their job. Mad Bro?
Meant to post that under donnie b
Fowler was still a below average defender last year. All Heyward has to do is break even to be a fairly substantial upgrade in that department, and he was already a bit better offensively at 50-60% of his potential than Fowler was in what was, in most facets, a career year.
This dude on drugs lol. But I admire a cards spirit. First off do you think the cubs are done. We will add another pitcher either before the season or durning. Two who says Theo still won’t go after a lower CF. You think Leak going to get you back to 100 wins. You crack me up. U lost one of ur starting pitchers for the season. wainwright going to be rusty for awhile u be lucky if he hits 14 wins maybe 15. U lost Hayward u lost Lackey don’t say both going to the cubs don’t hit a sore spot u be lying. You guys really crack me up. Try to justify everything maybe it makes u sleep at night. First thing cards fans said after Hayward signed we over paid. Funny cards offered him 200mil n he took 184. Castro was nothing we saved 40 mil so Zorb cost us 16 mil. Can StL pull that off. Holiday n Wainwright n ur boy Leak are not getting you to the WS or the Div so the sooner you come to terms with reality probably the better. Then again I’m sure will hear all the excuses come next summer n fall.
“And when you look at the Cubs signing Lackey, who went 13-10 (3 games over .500) vs the guys he’ll be replacing their starts…
Haren, Wada, Wood, and Richard went 9-5 / 4,13 ERA in 30 starts. – 4 games over .500”
Are you seriously comparing pitchers using their Win-Loss records? Join the 21st century of baseball and start using analytics that actually reveal the quality of a player. W/L means NOTHING.
“The fact that the Cubs starting 5 come 2016 started 161 of 162 games is unheard of.
The Cubs used 11 starters last year, and Arrieta’s 22-6 / 1.77 ERA won’t be repeated.”
That’s why the Cubs have chosen to invest in depth. Arrieta, Lester, Lackey, Hendricks, Hammel, Warren, Wood, Cahill, Edwards are all capable pitchers.
“Heyward’s greatest asset is his DEFENSIVE numbers in RF. Not as a CF.”
Heyward has been worse defensively in CF than when playing RF, but is still well above average, with a UZR/150 of 11.1 in CF and a UZR/150 of 18.4 in RF. The positional adjustment between RF and CF is +10 runs, so actually, Heyward would be more valuable in CF despite it not being his primary position.
“Losing Fowler and replacing him with Heyward to me is a step backwards.”
Right, cause Fowler posted a 3 fWAR in 2015 and Heyward posted a 6 fWAR. Further, that was Fowler’s best season and the third time Heyward has posted better than 5 fWAR.
“Fowler as a lead-off hitter had 102 runs, 17 HR, 20 SB and a .757 OPS
Heyward’s numbers with 79 runs, 13 HR, 23 SB and a .798 OPS isn’t impressive over who he’s replacing.:
Ridiculous evaluation. You don’t know where value comes from. You know why Fowler scored many more runs? Because he was a lead off hitter, and also because he played for a better offense.
“Zobrist, while a good player (great when used as a multi-position player) is now going to be playing 90% at 2B – basically blocking the much younger and promising Javier Baez.”
Your first point that has some logic to it. Still, Baez will serve as a utility player. Baez has been given ample opportunity and has yet to break out.
“Again, I see that as a step backwards… not to mention losing Castro in the deal as well.
Lose Castro, blocking Baez for a super utility player now going to be used wrong as the primary 2B as well as using the best RF in the game as a mere mostly average CF.”
Losing Castro was a great thing for the Cubs. Though I love his personality, Castro has a below average bat and a below average glove. And Baez will become that super utility player.
“Sorry Cubs fans… while you have a very good team, I don’t really see how you got much better if any… and then to think that Arrieta can repeat last year’s numbers and that you’ll have no injuries is just not realistic.”
Well, Heyward is a three win improvement over Fowler. Lackey will provide a two win improvement to our rotation. Zobrist will provide a two win improvement over Castro. So there’s seven wins right there to a team that already won 97 last season.
Finally, nobody expects Arrieta to repeat last year’s numbers. He’ll still be very good, projected for 5.5 fWAR.
“Fact is, 2015 was the Cubs best chance to have gotten to the WS – and didn’t do it.
I think the Cubs are still just a Wild-Card team, and 2015 was the best shot at winning than it will have in the near future just based on the fact that there will be injuries, there will be “down” years…. and that the Cards and Pirates are due to a healthier team and over-producing seasons by a few of their players.”
The Cubs are projected to be far and away the best team in baseball. Their median projection over 1000 samples was 100 wins. That’s unheard of.
“What can change the Cubs fortunes? Trade Soler for 1 more starter – Re-sign Fowler and put Heyward in RF where he belongs… THEN we can talk about the Cubs being favorites.”
Again, the Cubs are already, BY FAR, the favorites to win the World Series. Still, it’s baseball, and the playoffs are random. So even though they are the best team, that only gives them about a 15% shot at winning the WS. But given the Cubs youth, intelligence, and willingness to spend, they should win the division consistently over the next decade.
Have you Cards fans read the reports out. There are 5 by 5 different sources. All the same believe it or not. RN the Cubs have the best WAR rotation starting the Spring. Believe it or not. Look it up. Those reports are from the top 5 MLB reporting agency’s. Also u don’t see an up grade? Are you stupid or in denial cause your a Card fan. We were #3 in ERA last year. #1 in something else I forgot the stat. We got 97 wins with a basic 4 man rotation. N a revolving door at 5. Lackey replaces Harden remember that dude. Think that’s pretty good up grade. Our problem wasn’t pitching. Everyone got so wrapped up in Price. It was obp, defence. Think that is improved this Winter. Harden replaced. The million dollar question is can u win 100 games with a rusty Wainright, a pitcher gone for the season a loss of Lackey n Hayward n just add Leak as your move of the winter. To add the Cubs will ad another pitcher sometime this year before it all said n done in July. If you answered yes your only fooling yourself. Good luck w that. If you answered no at least your honest. Pick one.
they have the best WAR rotation in december? LOL! How will Lackey do at age 37? Arrieta had a career year and if he can repeat that—great. But so far, he’s a one shot wonder. Is he for real or another Steve Stone? Hayward may well finally develop into the superstar people have been touting him to be and if so, the Cubs hit the jackpot. But the harsh reality is this is a guy who, the last three years, has averaged about 12-60 .280.
I kind of like the signing. It was an obvious area of need that strengthens the rotation without giving up a draft pick.
I agree with a previous comment, it looks like this is a precursor to a trade involving a young arm and probably adams for another bat. That’s what the no trade clause screams out to me, but what do I know? Time will tell.
I kind of like the signing. I also think that Yadi will help keep Leake below the .375 ERA number again this year and possibly improve on that number further. No, its not like signing Cy Young, but it is a definite positive step after losing Lynn and Lackey. And he’s young/in his prime.
cardinals fill hole in rotation with a Leake
Well you guys have fun. No sense if battling out here. May the best team win. We might both suck next Spring n Milw win the Division. Lol o^o
How the flock do they already have an image of Mike Leake in a Cardinals uniform in front of a crowd during a game!?!?!??
Cardinals always seem to fill the gaps. They usually don’t make a big splash, but they fill gaps where they need to fill gaps, and that’s why they’re so successful.
Well said Lance. Except no best WAR going into Spring 2016 look it up. The 5 reporting agencies posted that a week ago. It could change. Funny all that stuff you say about Hayward. But yet the Cards offered him 200 million. Your tune would change had they signed him hu. Just like card fans saying Cubs over spent. Yet cards offered him 200 million. So we pay him 23 million a year. That’s over spent. What did pay for Leak? Lol. Lackey replaces Harden. At age 40 he’s better. Let’s see who does better this year Leak or Lackey. Till then please remain silent you making yourself sound stupid. Only time will tell. But had the cards signed both their players we wouldn’t be talking about this and cards fans would have the best of best to say about them. Topical fans. I can’t wait to hear all the excuses, resins, and bull sh$t this spring n summer. Have fun with Leak, broken Wainright n your roster. Make those picks count your going to need it in the next 5 to 7 years.
michaelw…..several things amusing about your post: 1. WAR is a useless made up stat. 2. what their war is right now is meaningless…..same for any other MLB team. This time last year, Arrietta was a mediocre pitcher. I’m not putting down Lackey. He did a great job for STL in a trade that was one of the greatest in Cards history. Thanks to John. But I’d rather have Leake who is 9 years younger. He’s not brought in to be the Cards ace. 3. As for Heywood, I’d glad STL did NOT sign him. As I said, maybe he’ll become the superstar people have predicted—but the Cubs are paying superstar money for a guy who has averaged 12-60 for the last three years. 4. your attempt at trolling is rather humorous because as Bill Parcells said, “you are what your record says your are.” For the Cards: 11 World Series wins, 19 pennants, 28 trips to the playoffs. for the Cubs: 2 – 10-17. So yeah, I will enjoy Leake’s 10-13 wins….(a helluva lot cheaper than the 25 million the cubs paid for Lester’s 11 wins this year…TWICE what the Birds are paying for Leake! As for Wainright….we’ll see. He bounced back quite well after missing an entire season. The Birds also had success with Cris Carpenter bouncing back and Garcia did well this past season. It’s a crapshoot with injuries and who knows who will get hurt this year for all the teams. Injuries are a part of the game. 🙂
Why can’t all of yas be happy for each others accomplishments.
No need to fight to make the rivalry better.
Perfect signing