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Arbitration Breakdown: Nolan Arenado

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Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Nolan Arenado broke out offensively in 2015 with 42 home runs, 130 runs batted in and a .287 batting average to go along with his third Gold Glove Award. Arenado was not a prolific power hitter before this year, so he only has 70 career home runs, including this year’s 42. This jump in power in his third year in the league is unique and makes it harder to find appropriate comparables for him when building an arbitration case. Our model has him at $6.6MM, but I could easily see this being either a big miss or a big win for the model.

Nolan Arenado

It has been eight years since the last time a hitter entered his first year of arbitration after clubbing at least 40 home runs in his platform year. That was when Ryan Howard beat the Phillies in an arbitration hearing to earn $10MM. However, Howard also had been a power hitter for over two seasons beforehand and had 129 career home runs, nearly twice as many as Arenado brings to the table. It seems very unlikely that Arenado could get $10MM.

Another case that is old enough that it might not be applicable is Ryan Ludwick from 2009, although his numbers are at least closer to Arenado in that he had a huge jump in power in his platform season. Ludwick’s 37 homers in his platform season were five fewer than Arenado his this season, but the two had identical marks of 28 homers combined in their careers prior their platform arbitration year. Ludwick also had a lower career batting average, 34 fewer career RBIs and 17 fewer RBIs in his platform season, although he did post a higher average in his platform (.299). All that said, Arenado should surpass Ludwick’s $3.7MM by a substantial margin.

Another thing that makes Arenado unique is his defense. No player in my dataset, which goes back nine years, has had three Gold Gloves before reaching arbitration eligibility. Only Matt Wieters had two, and he was a catcher. Wieters did earn $5.5MM, and while he’s a totally different position than Arenado at third base, the concept that he had such a high salary with one fewer gold glove and worse power numbers (23 HR, 83 RBI platform year; 65 and 249 career), could help Arenado argue that he deserves more. However, it is rare that a catcher would be a comparable player for a third baseman.

Few other players seem like reasonable comparables. Chris Carter hit .227 with 37 home runs and 88 RBIs in his platform year in 2014, and had a career average of .222 with 85 home runs and 216 RBIs. Carter got $4.175MM. Other than career home runs, Arenado clearly has bested Carter on all of these fronts. Pedro Alvarez had very similar numbers the year before that (.233/36/100 platform, .235/86/268 career) and got $4.25MM, making that $4.175-4.25MM range seem like something of a floor in Arenado’s case.

How much higher than $4.25MM we would expect Arenado to go is tricky. Dan Uggla got $5.35MM in 2009, with a worse platform year (.260/32/92) but decent career numbers (.262/90/270). However, the age of that case makes it a potentially stale comparison. Giancarlo Stanton had only 24 platform year home runs when he got $6.5MM, but he had 117 career home runs at that point. Mark Trumbo had 34 platform year home runs, but 95 career home runs, although his batting average was just .234 in his platform year. None of these players can boast the defense that Arenado can, either.

Another factor that could play into Arenado’s case is where Manny Machado lands. Machado is similar to Arenado in that he had an explosion of power in his platform year, hits for average, and plays third base very well. Both of these players are likely to earn similar amounts, although Arenado led the league in home runs and runs batted in, plus he has three Gold Gloves, which should give him a leg up on Machado. Both players will pay careful attention to where the other guy considers signing. Ultimately, I suspect both will fall short of their projected salaries (Machado’s projected $5.9MM is $700K less than Arenado’s $6.6MM projection). However, if one player does indeed reach his projection (which is certainly possible), the other is likely to have a better chance to do so as well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rays Avoid Arbitration With McGee, Cobb, Guyer

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The Rays have begun ticking through their long list of arb-eligible players in advance of Friday’s deadline to exchange filing figures. According to Jon Heyman, the “file-and-trial” organization struck deals to avoid a hearing with lefty reliever Jake McGee, righty Alex Cobb, and outfielder Brandon Guyer. (Links to Twitter.)

McGee leads the way with a $4.8MM contract for the coming season, per the report. He had been projected by MLBTR to earn $4.7MM through the arbitration process, so he landed just ahead of that figure. The 29-year-old has been lights out for Tampa Bay, racking up 259 2/3 innings of 2.77 ERA pitching in his six seasons there, with 11. K/9 and just 2.5 BB/9. He remains one of the most intriguing names on the trade market for pen arms.

Cobb was an easy case, unfortunately, because he missed all of 2015 with Tommy John surgery. As projected, he landed a repeat salary of $4MM. Tampa Bay will hope he’s able to return to the form that allowed him to compile a 2.82 ERA with 8.2 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 over the 2013-14 campaigns.

The deal with Guyer also lands right along the expected amount, as he’ll earn just a shade less ($1.185MM) than his projection ($1.3MM). Now 29, Guyer has turned into a useful piece over the last two years. In his 679 plate appearances dating back to the start of 2014, he’s slashed a solid .266/.348/.393 with 11 home runs and 16 steals.

Scott Atchison Retires, Joins Indians’ Staff

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Veteran righty Scott Atchison has joined the Indians organization in a non-playing role, the team announced today. As MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian explains, Atchison took the gig after deciding to put an end to his playing career.

Atchison only worked in parts of three big league seasons before his age-34 season, but earned new opportunities after a nice run with Japan’s Hanshin Tigers. He ultimately racked up another 278 2/3 innings of 3.52 ERA ball in the bigs from 2010 onward, with a 3.55 SIERA to support the results.

There were some sterling campaigns mixed in along the way. In 2012, he worked to a 1.58 ERA in a 51 1/3-inning effort for the Red Sox. And in his strong 2014 season with the Indians, Atchison logged a 2.75 earned run average in 72 frames.

Never a big strikeout pitcher, Atchison nevertheless limited the free passes (especially in his second run through the majors) and generated a lot of grounders. For his career, he averaged 6.6 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 to go with a 49.7% groundball rate. In addition to his time in Cleveland and Boston, Atchison appeared in the majors with the Mariners, Giants, and Mets.

According to Bastian, Atchison will function in a variety of roles as a “Major League advance coach and staff assistant.” He is expected to assist in advanced scouting as well as to work with the club’s pitching coach (Mickey Callaway) and bullpen coach (Jason Bere).

MLBTR congratulates Atchison on his productive career and wishes him the best of luck in his new position.

Padres Close To Signing Shortstop; Alexei Ramirez Believed Favorite

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12:24pm: San Diego is indeed “focused” on Ramirez and is “getting closer” to reaching agreement with him, Jon Heyman adds on Twitter.

11:46am: The Padres are close to locking up a free agent shortstop, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. While the report does not make clear who’ll be added, it provides that Ian Desmond is not heading to San Diego.

As Rosenthal says, then, it appears Alexei Ramirez will be joining the Friars “barring a surprise.” A recent report from Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune had suggested that the club was about to strike a deal and had seemingly whittled its options down to Desmond and Ramirez.

San Diego has long seemed in need of a full-time option up the middle. Last year’s pairing of Clint Barmes and Alexi Amarista was serviceable at best. While the organization added a promising young talent in Javier Guerra to a system that already featured up-the-middle defenders in Jose Rondon and Ruddy Giron, none of those players appears likely to break into the majors in the immediate future.

With some possible future pieces moving up, perhaps, a lengthier deal with Desmond held less appeal for San Diego. Ramirez doesn’t present the same upside, but also has long been expected to command far less on the open market — both in dollars and years.

Diamondbacks To Sign Sam LeCure To Minors Pact

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The Diamondbacks have agreed to terms with 31-year-old righty Sam LeCure on a minor league deal, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation reports on Twitter. LeCure, a client of BHSC, had spent his entire career in the Reds organization.

Cincinnati had leaned heavily on LeCure over the 2010 through 2014 campaigns, running him out for 300 2/3 innings in that span. He was a solid option, on the whole, putting up a 3.53 ERA with 8.5 K/9 versus 3.5 BB/9.

Last year, though, LeCure lost his roster spot and opened the year in Triple-A. Over sixty innings there, he worked to a sub-par 5.25 earned run average. LeCure was able to put up twenty frames of 3.15 ERA ball upon moving back onto the major league roster late in the season. But he also continued a trend of falling strikeout totals and fastball velocity.

Miguel Sano Hires Roc Nation Sports

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Young Twins slugger Miguel Sano has announced that he’s hired Roc Nation Sports as his new agency. Roc Nation represents several other high-profile baseball players, including Robinson Cano and Yoenis Cespedes.

Sano, 22, had an impressive debut last year for Minnesota after long occupying prime real estate on top-prospect charts. In 335 trips to the plate, he slashed a robust .269/.385/.530 with 18 long balls. While his 119 strikeouts are certainly cause for some concern, and Sano benefited from a sky-high .396 BABIP, there’s no denying his huge talent and remarkable power with the bat.

Of course, Sano accumulated most of those numbers while slotting in as Minnesota’s DH. There’s some uncertainty as to how the team will utilize him moving forward. He has spent most of his minor league career at third base, but all indications are that the towering youngster is going to be tried in the corner outfield for the 2016 season.

Because he was held down for much of last season, Sano is still controllable through 2021 and does not project to qualify for Super Two status. That means he won’t even be arb-eligible until 2019, though if he continues to drive the ball as he has then he could get expensive very quickly once he reaches eligibility.

Roc Nation will presumably focus its initial efforts on marketing the budding star, although it’s not impossible to imagine some extension interest from the Twins coming sooner rather than later. Teams have increasingly broached the concept of long-term arrangements with rather raw and unproven talent over recent years. Of course, such arrangements require motivation on both sides. In this case, Sano still comes with his share of risk. And it’s worth bearing in mind, on the other side of the coin, that he already landed a big bonus as an amateur.

Orioles Avoid Arbitration With Mark Trumbo

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The Orioles have avoided arbitration with first baseman/outfielder/DH Mark Trumbo, according to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). Trumbo will earn $9.15MM for the coming season, per the report, before reaching free agency next winter.

That number comes in just north of the $9.1MM figure projected last fall by MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz. Trumbo’s big power numbers have always played well in arbitration, and he earned a solid raise over his $6.9MM salary from a year ago.

Of course, that rather expensive arb rate is a major reason that the O’s were able to acquire the 30-year-old at a palatable rate earlier in the offseason. He came to Baltimore from the Mariners along with C.J. Riefenhauser in exchange for catcher Steve Clevenger.

There’s no denying Trumbo’s pop. Though he’s tailed off a bit in the last two years, he averaged 32 long balls a year over 2011-13. Of course, that comes with a high whiff rate and low on-base numbers, as Trumbo owns a lifetime .250/.300/.458 slash line. After a down year in 2014, he put up a cumulative .262/.319/.449 batting line and 22 home runs with the M’s and the Diamondbacks.

It remains to be seen how Baltimore will deploy Trumbo, but he’s generally considered a poor defender in the corner outfield and at third. He has, however, posted positive metrics at first base, and that’s probably where he’d line up if the season began today. If the O’s re-sign Chris Davis, they could shift Trumbo into primary DH duty, but it’s worth noting that both players offer some positional flexibility.

Blue Jays Have Had Recent Contact With Gallardo’s Camp

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JAN. 15: Contact between the two sides has been “minimal” to this point, tweets SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo. There is, of course, the possibility that talks will pick up steam in the days/weeks to come.

JAN. 14: The Blue Jays have carried interest in right-hander Yovani Gallardo throughout free agency, according to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca (Twitter link), and the team has been in contact with Gallardo’s camp this week, he adds. As Nicholson-Smith further tweets, club president Mark Shapiro said just yesterday that Gallardo is “the kind of guy” that could help Toronto, although as Nicholson-Smith also notes, questions remain about the Jays’ willingness to spend and to part with the necessary draft pick to sign Gallardo.

For context, Shapiro’s exact words when asked about Gallardo (in an appearance with Bob McCown and Arash Madani on 590 The Fan) were as follows: “He’s the kind of guy that would make us better. He’s the kind of guy you’d like to have. Whether or not, from a resource perspective, we still have enough to make a move like that — that’s still a variable that exists, but we do have some flexibility still. Thinking about how we use those resources is still a question.” Asked about the draft pick attached to Gallardo, Shapiro said it is indeed a factor, but not one that would immediately close the door on a deal. Shapiro called the draft pick forfeiture a “premium you’re paying on top of the salary.”

While Shapiro is understandably vague when prompted about Gallardo specifically, it’s telling that the Jays have at least reached out to his representatives at Octagon quite recently. Toronto would seem to have a somewhat full rotation picture, on paper, though as Shapiro noted in the interview, a team is fortunate if it can get through a 162-game season only needing to rely on seven or eight starters, adding that often, more arms are necessary. So, while R.A. Dickey, Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, Jesse Chavez and Drew Hutchison are all in the mix– to say nothing of Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna, who spent 2015 in the bullpen but were starters in the minors — there’s certainly room for more.

The question, then, as both Nicholson-Smith and Shapiro implied, is where exactly Gallardo’s asking price lies at this juncture. Toronto already has $95.75MM committed to the 2016 payroll, and that doesn’t include what currently projects to be Major League Baseball’s third-most expensive class of arbitration eligible players. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz pegged the Blue Jays’ arb class at $36MM in combined salaries — much of that coming from Josh Donaldson and newly acquired Drew Storen. And, while the Jays are reportedly receiving some cash considerations in the Storen trade as a means to offset the difference between his salary and that of Ben Revere, that sum shouldn’t total much more than $2MM (by MLBTR projections, it’d be $2.1MM). Those sums alone would bring Toronto to around $129.6MM in total payroll, not including league-minimum players to round out the roster and other expenses. It’s not unreasonable, then, to envision a scenario where the roster, as currently constructed, approaches or equals last year’s end-of-season payroll of $135MM.

As a result, the Blue Jays might need to get a bit creative if they’re to bring Gallardo into the fold. A backloaded contract would be one means of limiting the strain on 2016 payroll, and trading away another piece with a guaranteed salary or a notable arbitration projection could be another means of fitting Gallardo into the 2016 budget.

Of course, the Blue Jays will have competition for Gallardo’s services. The right-hander is one of the more desirable arms left on the free-agent market and has been connected to clubs such as the Royals, Orioles and Astros of late, although Jon Heyman reported yesterday (Twitter link) that the Astros were more focused on Ian Kennedy, leaving the Orioles and Royals as Gallardo’s primary suitors at the moment. While there’s no way to gauge the extent of Toronto’s interest, and the draft pick forfeiture/salary requirements do seem to make the Blue Jays a long shot, they seemingly must at least be considered on the periphery of the Gallardo market for the time being.

Gregory Polanco Open To Extension Talks With Pirates

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Pirates outfielder Gregory Polanco told reporters today that he’d be open once again to exploring an extension with the club, as MLB.com’s Adam Berry was among those to report (Twitter link). But the Bucs haven’t yet re-visited the subject since it was tabled last April, he added.

Notably, the Pirates and Polanco “came very close” to reaching an accord last year, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports on Twitter (and as Jon Heyman has previously suggested). Biertempfel indicates, though, that the sides are likely to open a new dialogue this spring, as he explains further in a post on the subject.

The new deal yesterday for Dee Gordon — like Polanco, a BHSC client — provides a reminder that extension season is upon us. Spring training has often proved a fertile venue for long-term negotiations, with many deals coming to fruition there — or, sometimes, gaining steam before completion early in the season.

Polanco certainly looks to be a candidate for a multi-year deal after turning in a full and productive big league season last year. He slashed just .256/.320/.381, but turned things on in the second half and also contributed 27 steals. Importantly, too, metrics credit him with big overall value on the bases (5.3 BsR) and with the glove (7.7 UZR, 12 DRS).

While other organizations might prefer to see a lengthier run of production, Pittsburgh has given every indication of being committed to the 24-year-old and would obviously also see some upside in locking him in now, when he’s accumulated only 1.103 years of service.

Prior talks were said to be in the seven or eight-year range, though it’s not clear where things might head now that there’s another season under Polanco’s belt. Certainly, the youngster’s leverage has risen due to his solid campaign and service accumulation, though he also hasn’t yet reached his potentially lofty ceiling.

According to Heyman’s prior reporting, the earlier negotiations did not result in a deal in large part because the parties could not come to an understanding over the option rights that the Pirates would acquire in the contract. While it seemed that a string of three option seasons was a settled element of the package being discussed, both the value (reportedly, $11MM to $13MM) and the timing of the decisions on those options were apparently never resolved.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/14/16

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Here are some of the most recent minor moves from around the game:

  • Japan’s Chiba Lotte Marines have signed infielder Yamaico Navarro for one year and $1.2MM, the team announced (via the Japan Times). The 28-year-old saw 199 MLB plate appearances over 2010-13, but has spent the past two seasons with the KBO’s Samsung Lions. Navarro earned his new deal with a .297/.404/.574 cumulative slash — and 79 home runs — over his 1,245 plate appearances in Korea.
  • Catcher Josmil Pinto has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A by the Brewers, the club announced (h/t to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel; Twitter link). Pinto will receive an invitation to major league camp this spring and will try to get his career back on track in the Milwaukee organization. Once a promising young big leaguer with the Twins, Pinto has suffered through a fall-off at the plate, concussion problems, and continued defensive question marks.
  • Also passing through waivers unclaimed were Nationals pitchers Erik Davis and Taylor Hill, per a team announcement. Davis, 29, struggled to get back on track last year after missing 2014 due to Tommy John surgery. He logged 48 2/3 minor-league innings of 3.88 ERA pitching with 8.7 K/9 but an uncharacteristic 5.0 BB/9. Hill had a strong campaign in 2014, but scuffled to a 5.23 ERA in 118 2/3 Triple-A frames last year.
  • The Rays have signed left Justin Marks, Jon Heyman tweets. Marks, who turned 28 just two days ago, made one appearance with the Royals in 2014. He pitched to a 5.63 ERA in 108 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level last year with the Diamondbacks organization.
  • Outfielder Donald Lutz has a minor league deal to return to the Reds, Alexis Brudnicki reports. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com adds on Twitter that Lutz won’t get a camp invite in the agreement. The first player to reach the majors after coming up in German baseball, Lutz was released by Cincinnati last summer after undergoing Tommy John surgery but has been playing recently in Australia. Brudnicki provides a full update on his recovery, as well of plenty of other interest insight, in the above-linked piece.
  • The Tigers inked catcher Rafael Lopez to a minors deal, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports on Twitter. Lopez briefly reached the majors with the Cubs in 2014. He has put up some solid years at the plate in the minors, though he slipped to a .266/.339/.335 batting line in 246 Triple-A plate appearances last year.

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