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Jake Arrieta, Cubs To Discuss Extension Next Month

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Jake Arrieta’s agent, Scott Boras, says he will discuss an extension with the Cubs next month when the two sides exchange arbitration figures, ESPN’s Jesse Rogers tweets. There have been rumblings of extension talk for over a year between Arrieta and the Cubs, but the two sides haven’t reached a deal, and reportedly hadn’t come close to one as of last April.

After his brilliant Cy Young season in 2015, the 30-year-old Arrieta was modestly — but only modestly — disappointing in 2016, posting a 3.10 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 over 197 1/3 innings. He’s had three straight strong seasons in Chicago, though, and still appears likely to cash in if he waits until he’s eligible for free agency at the end of next season. He’s currently set to make a projected $16.8MM next season through the arbitration process.

There’s ample precedent for extensions for star pitchers with five-plus years of service time — Boras negotiated a $175MM deal for Stephen Strasburg last May, and he would probably aim in that direction for Arrieta, who has had more recent success than Strasburg but is also two years older than Strasburg was at the time of his deal. Clayton Kershaw, Cole Hamels and Homer Bailey have also signed nine-figure deals with five-plus years of service time.

Yankees To Sign Aroldis Chapman

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Aroldis Chapman and the Yankees have agreed on a five-year deal worth $86MM, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal writes (Twitter links). Chapman will receive an $11MM signing bonus and $15MM per season, FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets. He can opt out of the contract after three years, and he has a full no-trade clause through the first three years of the deal and a limited no-trade clause for the last two. He also cannot be traded to a West Coast-based team, ESPN’s Marly Rivera tweets. Since the Yankees traded Chapman last season, he was not extended a qualifying offer and thus will not cost the Yankees a draft pick. Chapman is a client of Magnus Sports.

"<strong[Related: Updated New York Yankees Depth Chart]

Chapman’s enormous $86MM guarantee destroys the previous record for the largest contract ever given to a free agent relief pitcher, topping Mark Melancon’s recent deal with the Giants by a remarkable $24MM. The $17.2MM average annual value of Chapman’s deal also easily tops the previous high for a relief pitcher, set by Melancon ($15.5MM). Chapman’s deal is also the second largest for a free agent this winter, behind only Yoenis Cespedes’ $110MM pact.

Still, the dollar figures of Chapman’s contract aren’t surprising — it had already been reported that Chapman had received a $92MM deal, a number that hardly seemed surprising given his talent. (It’s possible he elected to take a deal with a slightly smaller guarantee due to the opt-out.) We here at MLBTR predicted Chapman would head back to the Yankees on a $90MM contract. The 28-year-old Chapman has a well-earned reputation as the game’s most dominating relief pitcher, piling up strikeout after strikeout with ridiculous three-digit heat from the left side, as well as a slider that frequently touches 90 MPH. In his seven-year career in the big leagues, Chapman has struck out 636 batters just in 377 innings for an absurd 15.2 K/9, with a brilliant 2.08 lifetime ERA.

The Yankees and Marlins had each made five-year offers to Chapman, whose decision had turned into a linchpin of each team’s Winter Meetings activity.  The Marlins had also been connected to Kenley Jansen, the other elite closer remaining, who will now likely head to Miami or back to the Dodgers.

The Marlins were, in fact, the runners-up to acquire Chapman, Rivera confirms, but Chapman says he wanted to return to the Yankees organization. “Every player dreams of being a Yankee, and if they don’t it’s because they never got the chance,” he says.

In the end, Chapman opted to return to the Yankees, for whom he posted a 2.01 ERA, 12.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and 20 saves in 31 1/3 brilliant innings before heading to the Cubs in a trade last summer. Chapman, Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances had combined to form the back end of what had been a devastating Yankees bullpen. Miller, of course, has moved on, but Chapman appears set to join Betances yet again in what should be one of the game’s best late-inning combos, with Chapman closing and Betances pitching in a setup role.

The Yankees spent the last half of the 2016 season retooling, shipping out Chapman, Miller, Carlos Beltran and Ivan Nova while attempting to transition from a veteran team to a much more youthful one. The 2017 Yankees will also be without veterans Brian McCann (who was traded to the Astros) and Mark Teixeira (who has retired). With the additions of Chapman and Matt Holliday, however, the Yankees have plainly announced their intention to compete in 2017, and of course there will also be the expectation that Chapman can help well beyond that. In fact, the Yankees specifically targeted DH and closer as areas to upgrade because young players would not be blocked at those positions, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets.

Chapman does come with significant baggage — he was suspended for 30 games at the beginning of the 2016 season due to violation of the league’s domestic violence policy. In October 2015, he allegedly choked his girlfriend, then went to his garage and fired his handgun eight times.

His contract also raises questions about how well he’ll likely perform over its duration. Long-term contracts for relievers infamously frequently turn out poorly. Still, Chapman is such a unique talent that it seems unwise to judge him based on the past troubles of significantly lesser pitchers. Also, the recent successes of pitchers like Chapman and Miller, as well as the 2014-15 Royals bullpen, demonstrate the impact terrific relievers can have on contending teams. Chapman’s new deal will only cover his age-29 through age-33 seasons, and if he can stay healthy, it’s easy to imagine him having success throughout its duration.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On The Red Sox’ Starting Pitchers

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The Red Sox had a busy Winter Meetings, trading for Chris Sale and Tyler Thornburg and signing Mitch Moreland. Here are a few notes on the Red Sox, specifically focusing on their rotation, as their front office heads home to Boston.

  • With Sale in the fold, the Red Sox have a surplus of starting pitching, leading to a flurry of calls from rival executives. The Red Sox are more interested in trading Clay Buchholz than Drew Pomeranz, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford writes, noting that according to one source, the Red Sox have shown no interest at all in sending Pomeranz packing. Buchholz could generate some interest due to his strong finish in 2016, although his $13.5MM salary could be an obstacle.
  • The Marlins spoke to the Red Sox about Buchholz but balked at his salary, Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller tweets. The Marlins recently acquired Jeff Locke at significantly less to fill out their rotation; they also signed Edinson Volquez earlier this winter.
  • Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski says the Sox have received calls about their starting pitchers, likely Pomeranz, Buchholz and Steven Wright, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes. Dombrowski adds, however, that he’s in no rush to make a deal. “We had a lot of phone calls on our pitchers today, and different ones,” he says. “But we’re just kind of sitting back at this point and kind of collecting thought processes. I can’t say we’re aggressively looking to doing something.” Mastrodonato notes that if Pomeranz stays, the Red Sox will have four lefties in their rotation, also including Sale, David Price and Eduardo Rodriguez, plus an abundance of lefty depth in Henry Owens, Brian Johnson and Roenis Elias. The Red Sox, though, say they’re not concerned about that. “I have no driving force to make any trades just because four of the guys are lefties,” Dombrowski says.

Brewers Trade Caleb Smith To Cubs

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The Brewers have traded Rule 5 Draft pick and left-handed pitcher Caleb Smith to the Cubs, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel writes (Twitter links). The Brewers will receive a player to be named or cash.

The Brewers had selected the 25-year-old Smith out of the Yankees system. He pitched 63 2/3 innings for Double-A Trenton in 2016, making seven starts and 20 relief appearances, and posted a 3.96 ERA, 9.9 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. The Yankees selected him in the 14th round of the 2013 draft. He seems unlikely to stick on a stacked Cubs roster, but the Cubs had been looking for left-handed relief help.

Rule 5 Pick Justin Haley Traded To Twins

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The Angels have agreed to trade Rule 5 Draft pick and right-handed pitcher Justin Haley for cash, Pedro Moura of the Los Angeles Times tweets. His ultimate destination will be the Twins, as Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press and others tweeted. When the Angels announced the deal, however, they announced that they had traded Haley to the Padres. The Padres also acquired first overall Rule 5 pick Miguel Diaz from the Twins, so it seems that Haley was part of that deal as well.

Haley was the eighth pick in the draft from the Red Sox system, and the Twins had already selected a player, Miguel Diaz, by that point. (Diaz is also a candidate to be traded at some point today.) The 25-year-old Haley pitched 146 2/3 innings between Double-A Portland and Triple-A Pawtucket and posted a solid 3.01 ERA, 7.7 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. He was a sixth-round pick of the Red Sox in 2012.

Braves Release Williams Perez

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The Braves have announced that they’ve released starting pitcher Williams Perez. The move clears a spot on their 40-man roster for the Rule 5 Draft, which is about to start.

The 25-year-old Perez has made 31 starts for the Braves over the past two seasons but has mostly struggled, with a 5.18 ERA, 5.3 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 over 170 1/3 innings. Last season, he pitched 53 2/3 innings in the big leagues and posted a 6.04 ERA, also fighting through shoulder and elbow troubles. The Braves now have ample starting pitching depth of the type Perez provides and therefore could afford to lose him.

2016 Rule 5 Draft Results

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The Rule 5 draft begins at 9.a.m ET as this year’s Winter Meetings in National Harbor, Md., draw to a close. Those unfamiliar with how the draft works can check out MLBTR’s full primer on the event here, but the short version is that teams with open 40-man roster spots can select players with four to five years of pro experience from other organizations if said player hasn’t been protected on the 40-man roster. Players who signed at 18 years of age or younger but have five years of experience can be selected, as can players signed at 19 or older who have four years of experience. Each selection costs $100K, but it’s not mandatory for teams to make picks. Clubs must carry chosen players on their active rosters (or the major league disabled list) throughout the entire 2016 season. Doing otherwise would expose them to waivers, and they’d then be offered back to their original club. Teams can also work out trades with the original organization to keep the selected player in the organization but send him to the minors.

The Rule 5 order is based on the reverse order of last season’s standings. The Twins own the No.1  overall pick, but they’re set to trade it to the Padres – who hold the No. 3 choice – according to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com (Twitter links). Minnesota will still make its selection at No. 1 and San Diego will do the same at No. 3. The teams will then make their trade, likely with money changing hands, as Mayo notes.

Courtesy of Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper, here’s a rundown of the players garnering attention entering the draft. And here, via Mayo, is the draft order and the number of players on the teams’ 40-man rosters:

1. Twins (39) – RHP Miguel Diaz, Brewers
2. Reds (38) – C Luis Torrens, Yankees
3. Padres (33) – IF Allen Cordoba, Cardinals
4. Rays (39) – RHP Kevin Gadea, Mariners
5. Braves (39) – RHP Armando Rivero, Cubs
6. A’s (40) – No selection
7. D-backs (38) – RHP Tyler Jones, Yankees
8. Phillies (40) – No selection
9. Brewers (39) – LHP Caleb Smith, Yankees
10. Angels (39) – RHP Justin Haley, Red Sox
11. Rockies (37) – No selection
12. White Sox (38) – RHP Dylan Covey, Athletics
13. Pirates (38) – LHP Tyler Webb, Yankees
14. Marlins (37) – No selection
15. Royals (39) – No selection
16. Astros (39) – No selection
17. Yankees (39) – No selection
18. Mariners (40) – No selection
19. Cardinals (39) – No selection
20. Tigers (39) – LHP Daniel Stumpf, Royals
21. Giants (40) – No selection
22. Mets (40) – No selection
23. Orioles (36) – OF Aneury Tavarez, Red Sox
24. Blue Jays (38) – RHP Glenn Sparkman, Royals
25. Dodgers (40) – No selection
26. Red Sox (39) – IF Josh Rutledge, Rockies
27. Indians (38) – LHP Hoby Milner, Phillies
28. Nationals (38) – No selection
29. Rangers (39) – LHP Mike Hauschild, Astros
30. Cubs (35) – No selection

SECOND ROUND

Reds – C Stuart Turner, Twins
Orioles – OF Anthony Santander, Indians

Latest On Shohei Otani

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There was hope last weekend that two-way Japanese superstar Shohei Otani would be on his way to the major leagues after next season, but it may be time to pump the brakes on that optimism. Major league officials met with international scouting directors Tuesday and informed them that there will be no special treatment for Otani under the new collective bargaining agreement, reports FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links). Thus, if the right-handed ace/left-handed hitter’s current team – the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters – does make him available to major league clubs after next season, the international rules included in the CBA will significantly limit his earning power.

As the CBA stipulates – and as Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan details – teams only have between $4.75MM to $5.75MM per year to spend on international free agents who are under 25. They can trade for up to 75 percent more spending room, meaning $8.3MM to $10MM is the most any club would be able to allocate to Otani. Moreover, Otani wouldn’t have the ability to become a major league free agent until he has six years of service time. That further takes away incentive for him to immigrate to the majors until at least after the 2019 season, when he’ll be 25.

Under the prior CBA, international restrictions would have only applied to Otani until he turned 23. His 23rd birthday is next July, meaning he could have been in position to sign a mega-deal a year from now had the previous rules stayed in place.

“Just when Otani was about to come over, they changed the rules” a major league scout who works in Japan told Jim Allen of Kyodo News.

Otani has garnered significant hype as a pitcher, even generating Noah Syndergaard comparisons, thanks in part to a fastball that can touch 102 mph on the radar gun. He dominated in Nippon Professional Baseball last season with a four-pitch mix, recording a 1.86 ERA, 11.2 K/9 and 3.87 K/BB in 140 innings. Otani broke out as a hitter, too, with a stellar .322/.416/.588 line and 22 home runs across 382 plate appearances. As a result, the NPB named him both the best pitcher and top hitter of the 2016 season. Now, to the chagrin of MLB fans, it seems Otani will remain a member of the NPB for at least three more seasons.

Free Agency Notes: Giants, Dodgers, Chapman, Wieters, Alvarez

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It appears that closer Mark Melancon will be the only major pickup the Giants make this offseason. The club has all but reached its payroll limit as a result of adding Melancon on a four-year, $62MM deal Monday, and it’s unlikely to make any significant dollar-for-dollar trades, general manager Bobby Evans told John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle.  “I don’t think there’s anything more to ask of ownership,” Evans said. “It’s more what I can do with what we have.” The Giants logged opening-day payrolls upward of $172MM in the previous two seasons, and Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource estimates they’ll start 2017 at $183MM-plus.

More free agency-related news:

  • The Dodgers made an attempt to sign closer Aroldis Chapman, but they didn’t come particularly close to succeeding, tweets FanRag’s Jon Heyman. It doesn’t seem as if Chapman was actually receptive to playing in Los Angeles, as the agreement he reached with the Yankees late Wednesday includes the ability to block trades to all West Coast teams.
  • Free agent catcher Matt Wieters might not sign until late in the offseason, in part because the market is slow for catchers, agent Scott Boras informed Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun on Wednesday. As he’s known to do, Boras talked up his client, saying, “Look, he threw out over 35 percent of his runners. When Matt Wieters is behind the plate, the Orioles are in the playoffs. He’s won Gold Gloves … and his ERA of the pitching staff is one run lower than when other catchers catch. I think Baltimore has a real commodity there. He’s performed at high levels there.” Wieters – who’s coming off a poor year from both offensive and pitch–framing standpoints – remains a possibility for the catcher-needy Orioles, according to both Boras and O’s general manager Dan Duquette. The 30-year-old Wieters has been a member of the Baltimore organization since it drafted him fifth overall in 2007.
  • Corner infielder/designated hitter Pedro Alvarez, another Baltimore free agent and Boras client, has drawn interest from “a number of teams,” the agent told Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com. Interestingly, in an effort to improve his earning power, Alvarez could try to market himself as a part-time outfielder. “Pedro is actually going to start playing the outfield, as well,” Boras said. “He’s obviously working at first base and we’re going to try and get his defensive acumen more in the field as his career goes forward.” The big-bodied Alvarez has struggled at first and third during his career (and played DH almost exclusively in 2016), so it’s difficult to imagine him faring well in the grass.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/8/16

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The latest minor moves from around baseball:

  • The Yankees have re-signed left-hander Joe Mantiply to a minor league contract, tweets Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. New York released the 25-year-old Nov. 28, just under three weeks after claiming him off waivers from the Tigers, but he’ll now return to the Yankees organization. A 27th-round pick in 2013, Mantiply made his major league debut with Detroit last season and yielded five runs, seven hits and walks in just 2 2/3 innings. He was far more successful in the minors, where he registered a 2.73 ERA with 10.9 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 in a combined 59 1/3 frames between the Double-A and Triple-A levels.
  • Right-hander Parker Markel’s previously reported contract in Asia is with the Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization, according to Zach Links of Pro Football Rumors and MLBTR (Twitter link). The former Rays farmhand will receive a $525K base salary and could land up to $135K in incentives.

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