Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.
Jake Arrieta enters his third and final year of arbitration this winter with a hefty $10.7MM base salary following his 2015 Cy Young Award season. While his 2016 campaign was less stellar, Arrieta still posted a very respectable 3.10 ERA in 197.1 innings, along with an 18-8 record and 190 strikeouts. As a result, my model projects him to get a $6.1MM raise and earn $16.8MM for 2017.
Finding comparable pitchers to Arrieta’s platform season is tricky. His $6.1MM raise would be the second-highest ever for a third-year eligible starting pitcher — Max Scherzer got an $8.8MM raise after his Cy Young Award-winning season three years ago. Scherzer’s 21-3 record, 2.90 ERA, 214.1 innings and 240 strikeouts (plus the Cy Young Award itself) combine to put an obvious ceiling above Arrieta. There is no way Arrieta is going to get anywhere near Scherzer’s $8.8MM raise, but where the Cubs ace falls below that number is difficult to discern.
Aside from Scherzer, the next highest raise in this service class (excluding the anomalous and stale case of Carlos Zambrano in 2007) belongs to Jeff Samardzija, who got a $4.46MM raise in 2015. Samardzija posted just a 7-13 record that season, but with a 2.99 ERA in 219.2 innings to go along with 202 strikeouts. While Arrieta’s 2016 season fell twenty innings short of Samardzija’s 2014, Arrieta’s 11 extra wins suggest he should easily top Samardzija’s raise.
Doug Fister in the 2014-15 offseason could be an interesting comparable because his win total is more applicable to Arrieta’s case. Fister received a $4.2MM raise after winning 16 games in 2014. Fister’s 2.41 ERA bested Arrieta’s mark from this past season, though Arrieta significantly outpaced Fister in innings (197.1 to 164) and strikeouts (190 to 98). Alfredo Simon got a $4.05MM raise that same year with 15 wins and 196.1 innings, but his 3.44 ERA is less impressive than Arrieta’s, and his 127 strikeouts are far weaker too.
One plausible comparable could be Justin Masterson, who got a $4.07MM raise after a strong 2013 campaign — 14-10 record, 3.45 ERA, and 195 strikeouts in 193 IP. While the innings and strikeouts are a reasonable comparison, the record and ERA are clearly a step behind Arrieta.
Overall, we see a very obvious ceiling at $8.8MM with Scherzer way above Arrieta, and a series of pitchers in the low $4MM-raise range that clearly represent a floor. Where Arrieta lands is a mystery, but it would surprise me if he achieved the $6.1MM raise as projected by the model. I think a $5MM raise makes a lot of sense based on these comparables, and maybe $5.5MM since he clearly has a much better case than all of the $4MM-raise pitchers, though $6.1 million seems a little too high. Look for Arrieta to land somewhere closer to $16MM in 2017 than the nearly $17MM the model expects.
Less than stellar 2016 campaign? Huh?
I guess you can’t argue with the numbers: 3.10 era over 197.1 innings. 18-8 with 197 strikeouts.
Less stellar… maybe.
Read this without my glasses the first time.
2-0 World Series 2.38 E.R.A. both wins on road. Should get 8.8 raise or more.
Should but won’t happen. The club is ripe with pitching depth and in the position of power here. In the interest of not souring a possible extension deal that they’d love to have (but do not need), they’ll probably come out with a $5MM raise offer hoping to settle right around $6MM.
Jake’s beard, alone, should be paid $1MM.
He shaved it….guess thats money lost.
less stellar than his cy young season is what they meant
Arb is based strictly on bottom line results, so his world series wins won’t really come into play too much, that said, Scherzer had a much better year prior to his 8.8M raise, 3 more wins, .20 ERA lower, like 30 more IP, 50 more K’s, 5 less losses.
He won’t touch Scherzer’s raise.
Regular season for flash World Series rings for cash
Regular season for show World Series rings for dough
Overall, he had a pretty solid season. However, if people didn’t watch him all season, it’s easy to overlook how pedestrian his 2nd half was. He lost his control and was lucky to make it through 5 or 6 innings. June ERA-3.54, July ERA-4.88, August ERA-3.21, September/October ERA-4.60. By no means terrible, but he definitely was inconsistent and tailed off in the 2nd half. Solid pitcher, but not an “ace” at this point.
Let him walk next offseason…someone else can pay the freight.
I know arbitration is mostly based on “traditional” numbers but is any consideration given to their relation to the league environment? Especially strikeouts which are trending up league-wide recently.
So 2014 Samardzija was slightly better than 2016 Arrieta, yet Arrieta’s better but meaningless W-L record puts him in line for a greater salary increase? I understand it’s part of your very accurate model, but does that mean teams are still using W-L record as a major point in valuing pitchers?
Not to speak for our great author, but I believe, since arb hearings are heard by people who are not necessarily baseball experts, they tend to stick to the “easier to understand for the average person” stats. With that in mind, this is how both sides prepare their cases (since we are talking court/legal cases here). When it comes to teams pursuing free agents, they use their own metrics, which I believe, would not consider W-L records as much.
It seems fair and fitting that playoff stats would also be considered. Is this ever the case? Certainly, winning a WS MVP would be factored in, right? I understand that the thinking is that you use last year’s stats to predict next year, so would you also consider “the Cubs are still pretty good…he’ll likely be pitching in the playoffs again, so those stats are in play.”
Just give him 15.6mil. Not unreasonable. That will be his aav for the next 5 years. Hopefully its will the cubs. Scott Boras is greedy he’ll want 18-20mil aav for 7 years. He’s not getting more than 5 years unless its incentives and options
I hope they ride Jake hard this season, win another ring, then let him walk. I hope they dont give him the 7 year deal he will likely get on the open market. Sucks that they will only get s 3rd round pick for losing him though.
He will get 7/210 from some team. Look at what is out there in free agency next year. Maybe cueto , Tanaka
You think 7/200 starting in his age 31 season? The Angels are heading for the phone booth to change into their “Superstupid” costume right now.
Can explain why they’ll only get a 3rd pick if he walks next year? Is this specified in the new CBA? Serious question, I haven’t kept up on how future compensation is going to work.
There is no longer 1st round pick compensation so if a team that signs him is over threshold they’ll forfeit 2nd and 5th and under threshold equals 3rd. Although it’s going to be interesting now that players can only be QO’d once. So hypothetically if a player has a decent not stellar season will they accept the QO only to enter the market without draft pick comp attached to them?
What’s the threshold? Total dollars signed for or AAV? I got to think whoever would sign him would go over said threshold and in turn be worth a 2nd and 5th, no?