The Padres have announced an extension with lefty Clayton Richard, who had been slated to return to free agency. It’s a two-year deal with a $6MM guarantee and “minor” incentives, MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell reports on Twitter.
Since signing a one-year, $1.75MM deal over the winter, the 34-year-old Richard has operated as a full-time starter for the first time since 2012. While he carries only a 4.82 ERA, some underlying metrics suggest he has deserved better. Richard has recorded 6.6 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 to go with a stellar 59.1% groundball rate. He has likely been at least a bit unfortunate to surrender a .348 batting average on balls put in play against him. And while Richard has been hurt by the long ball — he’s coughing up dingers on 19.7% of the flyballs hit against him — he has typically fared much better in that regard.
It’s uncertain whether Richard can sustain his promising showing, but he seems like a pretty reasonable pitcher to take a slight risk on. Richard’s two-seamer has averaged 90.7 mph, not far off his career average. And he has maintained last year’s surge in swinging-strike rate despite becoming a full-time starter; his 8.3% mark sits well above his 7.2% career level. Richard was quite productive while working mostly as a reliever in 2016 and certainly has shown an ability to succeed as a starter in the past; he posted sub-4.00 earned run averages for the Pads in that role in the 2010-12 seasons. Of course, Richard also has a history of shoulder problems that required surgical treatment.
For the Pads, locking up Richard now accounts for another rotation spot heading into the 2018 season. Youngsters Luis Perdomo and Dinelson Lamet seem quite likely to remain in the MLB staff and Travis Wood could still be an option despite his struggles. But with Jhoulys Chacin heading back to free agency, the Pads were looking at filling at least two openings.
Even with today’s move, the team could still add two rotation pieces over the offseason. Last year’s pursuit of budget-friendly veterans could be reprised; really, the Friars did quite well with Richard, Chacin, and Trevor Cahill, even if Jered Weaver proved to be a miss.
Whether or not it’ll make sense for the Padres to keep Richard in the rotation throughout the life of the deal will have to be seen. But he could have plenty of function regardless. The veteran southpaw could always slide back into a long relief or situational lefty role if others ultimately prove to be better starting options.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
just who you wanna extend! a pitcher with 14 losses and an almost 5.00 era
Get that “14 losses” out of here partyatnapolis! PItcher wins and losses aren’t real stats!
Yes they are, just like team wins/loses. Is that not important in Fantasyland?
Exactly. Wins and losses are a team stat. Not an individual stat.
it’s an individual stat. everyone praises a guy who wins 20 games then condemns the guy who loses 20? Can’t have it both ways. if you condemn a guy for losing 20 then don’t praise a guy who wins 20
Nope because it is more dependent on the offense than the pitcher himself. If I am praising a guy with 20 wins or condemning a guy with 20 losses it will be because his stats such as ERA and WHIP suggest he deserves his record.
Yea guy……just like those 83 L’s next to Pads name don’t mean nothing ! We just need sum tasty buds n sum cool waves…..Go Chargers !
Even if we ignore the W/L record, look at the ERA. 4.82 ERA. 1.5 WHIP, 343 BABIP. Plus he’s homer prone, and has given up the most hits in The NL. At least when you have a guy like 2015 Shelby Miller, who was 6-17, had a 3.04 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, and didn’t give up very many homers.
Exactly. You actually have a pretty good case for Richard not being a very good pitcher. But no one is going to take you seriously if you cite wins and losses.
The 343 BABIP might have something to do with the atrocious infield defense the Padres have behind him, right?
I know he hasn’t been all that good. Citing wins and losses just ruins your comment and every comment you will ever make after that tho.
Richard does stink but its not because of his 14 losses. Signing him for 2 years is crazy
Wow, losses and ERA? 1986 called, they want their stats back. There’s reasons not to extend Richard, but citing archaic and meaningless statistics isn’t one of them.
ERA is meaningless? Gtfo.
ERA is meaningless since FIP, xfip, era+, etc. are all better indicators of how well a pitcher is pitching.
2 years 6 mill for a guy thats gonna give you 4.5 ish and 180-200 innings? The braves paid 12.5 and 8 mill for that last off season on colon and dickey for that exact production. Padres are getting it for 3 mill.
No reason to argue will novice fans
ERA + and FIP sure i can buy that. But if you want to tell me SIERRA is a better stat then regular ERA thats kind of out there
Siera is worse than era. Idk who came up with it tbh or why it still exists. Ill accept era over siera. Its too subjective with “balls in play” which is why we have babip to tell is oh a pitcher has unusually high average of balls in play so some bad luck cause of defense etc.
ERA isn’t meaningless but it does have its faults. But pitcher wins and losses are meaningless
There is no “perfect” pitching stat. Sabremetrics junkies love FIP and xFIP but they have their flaws too (such as underrating groundball specialists). Wins and losses aren’t pitcher stats, they are team stats.
I don’t think wins and losses are a completely meaningless stat. It’s still a game, you can’t control the run support but you can pitch better in a tight spot. I’d say it’s way less important than your typical guy would say but if you’ve ever played baseball it does take something to go out there and get the W. Keep going out there and getting guys out despite the lack of run support etc. You can say high leverage % or QS or insert another advanced metric here is better. And it is, I’d agree with that, but a win is worth something. I’m not ready to completely devalue the W for a starter.
Yeah it takes something alright. A f**kton of run support. Just ask Rick Porcello.
Imo there’s no difference between a guy going 9-15 or 15-9. You have to take into account all the other factors, like peripherals, run support, ballpark, and counting stats. Guys fluke their way to 14-16 wins all the time like Trevor Bauer this year. I’m pretty sure Drew Hutchison went something like 14-5 in 2014 or 2015 with an ERA over 5.
Anthony young went something like 1-19 one season, but he really wasn’t that bad. Willie Blair won 18 games one season and stunk. There’s thousands of examples like that. The 1939 Yanks – probably the best team of all time – had a guy named steve sundra who went 11-1 in relief. He walked twice as many batters as he struck out.
Considering the braves paid 12.5 and 8 mill for this exact kind of production last off season padres got a steal at 3 mill a year.
4.5 ish era/periphials, 180-200 innings, the padres got him way below market value considering teams do need guys just to eat innings.
Wins and losses dont mean much to a pitcher regarding how good or bad they actually are performing.
Hence why Aaron Sele posted 18 and 19 wins for the rangers in 98 and 99 and 17 for the mariners in 00 sporting a 4.23, 4.79, and 4.53 respectively.
baseball-reference.com/players/s/seleaa01.shtml
Good record+Bad ERA= Good offense
Rick Porcello leading the Majors in losses a year after he won the CY and it was generally accepted that his win total was the reason for it is more than enough proof that wins and losses are irrelevant.
Porcello had double the run support last year. 6.8 of run support compared to 3.9 this season.
Yep and he leads the Majors in losses this year. Really does a lot to expose how irrelevant of a stat a pitcher’s record is.
Anyway, they want Richard to be an innings eater. They don’t expect him to be extremely good. They expect 6-7 innings out of him every 5 days.
No wonder they haven’t made the playoffs in forever.
Actually, this is probably so that they can have an innings eater in the rotation over the next couple of years as they begin to call up their young pitching prospects.
Bingo
Not just an inning eater, although that is super important with a young staff. They are probably looking at him as a veteran example for those young pitchers to follow in how he gets things done on and off the field.
Probably no more than $10M. My guess would be $8.75M or so
Even better for the Pads. Just $6M
This organization continues to amaze me. They give Myers his big contract when he basically hadn’t done anything for more than half a season. Now they extend a picture that has almost a 5.00ERA and is 7 and 14.
They also wasted a draft pick on Johnny Manziel. LOL
lmao!!! true
it was in the 40th something round…
Yes but it is still a wasted draft pick. Teams as bad as the Padres can’t waste one pick no matter what round it is.
Actually they have to. There are 40 rounds but with returning players and players graduating from the Dominican League teams can’t fit all 40 on their rookie league rosters. Teams typically sign 25-30 of their 40 picks. If you know you won’t sign 10 picks it doesn’t matter who those players are.
That is all on Josh Byrnes.. Has nothing to do with the current group.
Yeah, they coulda drafted Tim Tebow instead.
Wasted a 28th round pick drafting manziel. At the time there had only been 2 or 3 players in the last 15 something years to even make it to the big leagues after being drafted in the 28th round.
But yeah. That 28th rounder really was the franchise savior back then. Sooo much talent taken in the 28th round of the 2014 mlb draft. Look for yourselves. Powerhouse talent. mymlbdraft.com/2014/mlb-draft-results-round-28/
Kevin pillar, rajai Davis, Kevin keirmeier, Kevin seigrist were all taken round 30 or later. I get what you’re saying but there’s still no use in wasting a draft pick
Also, some guy named Piazza…..62nd round.
Citing Piazza for excelling after being taken in the 62nd round is like citing Mark Zuckerberg after dropping school. These guys are the exceptions, not the rules.
saavedra: Never said otherwise. Put the responses in the context of a reply to relief pitcher’s statement, to which it was written.
I agree with jlmini10 that teams shouldn’t waste draft picks on guys they know 100% won’t sign or that don’t even play baseball
Well at least they didn’t waste 100K and actually signed him like the Mets with Tim Tebow.
Once you get later in the draft, teams start doing favor picks or on some occasions, publicity picks. The Seattle Mariners took Trey Griffey, who doesn’t even play baseball anymore, in the 24th round. The Oakland Athletics took Jacob Hoffman, who was a student at Stanford this past year. Think about it. You have 40+ guys from the draft coming into your organization. Do you have 40+ spots opening up?
That’s cute.
What? I haven’t seen the dollar figure yet but unless it’s an overpay this is a very very VERY stupid move on Richard’s part! I thought he’d be smarter than that being a former HS valedictorian.
Here we go again…. it’s like groundhog with you, dude. Are there ANY moves around MLB that would satisfy you??
As a Padres fan this move satisfies me quite a lot actually. But I don’t get it from Richard’s perspective. A player has next to no incentive to take an extension this close to free agency unless it’s an overpay.
He was never getting 2 years anywhere else.
“If you can see the future you should probably devote your talents towards something more practical than commenting on Internet message boards.”
O the Irony !
I never claimed to know what kind of contract Richard would or wouldn’t get had he not extended so try again
Alright man, I’m sick of everyone bagging on you about this. Their point, his incentive could be that he doesn’t want to go through the BS of free agency. He’s taking a deal that maybe he likes and is good enough for him and his family. You have to realize not all players are money hungry people who don’t care where they play. That have financial security and knowing they don’t have to move their family anywhere is incentive enough for them. Oh and then add in the fact that if he pitches well, he knows there’s a solid chance he’ll get traded at next years, or 2019’s deadline.
You know, a very wise man once said “Good enough is neither.” Richard doesn’t get any financial security from his deal, or at least he doesn’t get any financial security that he wasn’t going to get anyway. And just because he took an extension doesn’t mean he won’t have to move his family. Preller can still trade him and this contract probably makes him a tradeable asset. If he took this contract because he wants to stay in San Diego then it could very well end up being counterproductive.
At the end of the day, his agent works for him. His agent might have told him that he was being crazy, but he might’ve not cared. I’m not disagreeing with your point that he would’ve gotten more in Free Agency, probably would’ve gotten per year what the entirely of this deal is. But he made the decision. Can’t knock a guy for that.
Sure you can. He took a discount when he didn’t have to and this contract won’t necessarily keep him in San Diego because if Preller can get a halfway decent prospect for him he’s GONE. Seeing how he is a former HS valedictorian I thought he’d be smarter than that.
You can, but you’re wrong. Nice having a civil conversation with you. Actually hope he does well and does get traded
This is an opinion matter so it’s impossible for me to be wrong about it. And if he wanted to be traded he wouldn’t have extended he would have just waited out free agency so he could get more money and actually choose who he plays for.
Lol you beat me to it!
Sounds good to me. He’s apparently a good role model for the young guys, and he’s been dependable getting out there every five days. A couple of reliable innings eaters are exactly who they should be going for in the next couple of years. It’s not like they’re an ace away from contention.
Great Role Model for the kid Ps !!! “This is how I prepare to steal millions of dollars from mid-level MLB organization with an ERA a shade under 5, getting hit like a piñata at a gang initiation party, 40 more hits than innings pitched, allowing 23 bombs even though I pitch in a Ps park, YEA…..give me the rock ! Beats having a real job !” Surfs Up !!!
dude wtf are you saying… richard is a good innings eater and mentor for a young team for the next 2 years. 3 mill is chump change in today’s market
Extending an innings eater during a rebuild is the way to go and if Richards is happy playing in San Diego it’s all good. That’s 2 starters off the FA list before the season even ends.
I’m not going to join the debate on traditional stats vs. advanced sabremetrics. In all honesty, they are both important stats that serve a purpose.
Back to the Clayton Richard extension, I am a bit surprised that he got extended before the Padres could see what the free agent market would bare. His stats suggest he’s in the lower 3rd of league starters that qualify for the ERA title.
Perhaps the organization is seriously missing organizational depth below. Maybe it is his veteran presence. All I know is that this organization seems to be in constant rebuilding mode.
The Padres haven’t been in constant rebuilding mode. Once you trade all your prospects and try to “make a run for it” as they did three offseasons ago you are back to square one of your rebuild. I personally date the start of the Padres’ current rebuild as June 4th, 2016. The day James Shields was traded to the White Sox.
They aren’t constantly rebuilding? Since 2000 they’ve had 13 losing seasons. That’s not the kind of consistency a fan base should come to support as “normal”.
That’s not rebuilding. A better definition for what the Padres were doing during that time is “sucking.”
They were the team of the west in 05,06,07 and 10’
To be fair, a lot of those years came with stingy ownership and incompetent scouting/front office (just look at their drafts). Like Lowtalker pointed out, there were a few years of contention, but I think they spent a lot of time trying to “retool” rather than doing a legitimate “rebuild” like right now.
Is he worth 3mil coming out of the bullpen? Ehhhhh probably not but he has pitched out of it before and lefties can typically find a roster spot. If the day comes in the next 2 years when they have enough pitching to take spots. I would think this makes chacin’s return questionable. Still highly possible but I don’t think preller is shooting for W’s next year and Richard is more cost effective.
The pitching depth isn’t in AAA but a lot in the lower levels, After Perdoma and Lamet their rotation is open with Richard now penciled in but at 3m a season he can give innings as starter or RP. Is locking him up at 3m a season to be the long guy a bad thing? Your Ace, obviously yes but Richard is a bullpen starter when injured Colin Rea and Robbie Erlin aren’t. Padres should go after SP in free agency..
How much?
Two years, $6m guaranteed plus incentives
Richard is replacement level but he also may hit 200 innings. The Padres don’t have that many young pitchers that they won’t need a guy to eat innings. The price is low. It’s not a deal that’ll lead to the Padres winning but it’s smart.
According to fangraphs he has a 1.9 WAR so that’s a bit over replacement level. FIP and xFIP are kinder to him than traditional metrics, but yeah I agree with your sentiment.
They’re spending 6M to for 2 years of a 4/5th starter. Hopefully one who eventually transitions to a swing man/long reliever role as prospects come up. Compared to what some other backend starters made this year its definitely smart.
Richard has proven to be an effective innings eater with uninspiring peripherals, and he’ll be paid accordingly.
This will likely be an alright deal for SD & CR. Cahill hasn’t done well with KC but the Cubs might look better with Cahill and Travis Wood, relatively cheap pitchers who were effective for them on whom they passed, on the roster now. Montgomery does best when he’s pulled in different directions. … my .0002.
I think it’s a good move for both parties. If Richards does well he could be trade fodder to a contender with his affordable contract. If he stinks, he stinks up 200 innings at least.
If he’s cheap enough to be trade fodder this isn’t a good deal for him. His goal at this point should be to make more than he’s worth.
Yea taking guaranteed $ and living in San Diego bad decision lol. Surely he would get Arrieta $. Ryan at his best
Slow on the driveway
What’s your goal pontificating what other people’s goals should be? What a tool.
The same as your goal from posting brain dead comments on this site
Very interesting thread, read all of it.
I never would’ve imagined to find this wealth of information.
Thanks guys
Why so much? He had no option to leave! Good guy…bad results. Another AJ boob job! He would have signed for $2M/yr. And why now? What is the hurry?
Look at all the teams that will be looking for #4-#5 starters who will eat innings and not crash the bullpen. The guy is 34 and a lefty with starting and relief experience on the youngest team in the majors. That has a positive effect on the kids in the clubhouse, and no stat can measure that.
The Padres have lot of young pitchers who will get their shot over the next two years, and Richard will be the grizzled veteran greeting them and helping them keep their heads screwed on straight, allowing the pitching coach to concentrate on technique.
Richards has about 15 quality starts, 2 Complete games, and a handful of really bad start that inflated his era. To argue a rebuilding team shouldnt be shelling out a whole $6 mil for 2 years is just absurd. Keep in mind the Padres defense has had Aybar, Cordoba and Solarte playing shortstop and CR has a 59% groundball rate. Even if he is worse next year, it’s not a big investment w the bloated contracts. I GUARANTEE you Richards has a better year than Cashner who will get a multi year $10+mil contract