MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.
After surprising many by earning a wild card slot and advancing to the NLDS last season, the Diamondbacks will juggle a large arbitration class and several key free agent decisions while trying to return to the postseason.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Zack Greinke, SP: $126.5MM through 2021
- Yasmany Tomas, OF: $42.5MM through 2020 (final two seasons are player options)
- Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $11MM through 2018 (club option for $14.5MM in 2019, $2MM buyout)
- Jeff Mathis, C: $2MM through 2018
- Daniel Descalso, IF/OF: $2MM through 2018
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Patrick Corbin (5.105) – $8.3MM
- Randall Delgado (5.100) – $2.5MM
- A.J. Pollock (5.052) – $8.5MM
- Shelby Miller (4.166) – $4.9MM
- J.J. Hoover (4.153) – $1.6MM
- Chris Owings (4.027) – $3.8MM
- Chris Herrmann (4.001) – $1.4MM
- T.J. McFarland (3.165) – $1.0MM
- Taijuan Walker (3.142) – $5.0MM
- David Peralta (3.120) – $3.8MM
- Nick Ahmed (3.054) – $1.1MM
- Jake Lamb (3.053) – $4.7MM
- Andrew Chafin (3.020) – $1.2MM
- Robbie Ray (3.007) – $4.2MM
- Non-tender candidates: McFarland, Herrmann, Hoover
Free Agents
- J.D. Martinez, Fernando Rodney, Chris Iannetta, Jorge De La Rosa, David Hernandez, Gregor Blanco, Adam Rosales
[Arizona Diamondbacks Offseason Page | Arizona Diamondbacks Payroll Information]
It only took one offseason for first-year GM Mike Hazen to get his team back on the winning track, though in fairness to the former Tony La Russa/Dave Stewart-led front office, the 2017 D’Backs were blessed with much better health and far more breakout performances than the unfortunate 2016 squad. Since the team is now perhaps a bit ahead of schedule in terms of returning to contention, however, Hazen now faces an interesting offseason of trying to fill various roster holes while still keeping the payroll in check.
The Diamondbacks project to owe just over $114MM to 19 players next year (the five guaranteed deals and the whopping 14-player arbitration class), and that number rises to the $120MM range if you factor in the key pre-arb players who will certainly be on next year’s team. While some money could be saved via non-tenders, the D’Backs still project to have the largest Opening Day payroll in the franchise history. There isn’t going to be much, if any, of a payroll increase, according to team president Derrick Hall, who also recently stated that the D’Backs will “have to get creative in a few spots financially if we’re going to get aggressive in certain areas.”
With this in mind, it doesn’t seem like there’s much chance of a reunion with J.D. Martinez, especially given Martinez’s reported asking price of a staggering $210MM. Team management hasn’t closed the door on the chances of Martinez returning, though even if he and agent Scott Boras settle for “only” the six years and $150MM projected by MLBTR, that will leave the D’Backs committing well over half their payroll to just two players: Martinez and Zack Greinke. And that doesn’t even factor in possible extension talks with Paul Goldschmidt, as the star first baseman is only controlled through the 2019 season.
So, how could Hazen and company “get creative” in finding a way to bring Martinez back? The three cited non-tender candidates would account for $4MM, though more money could be saved in that department if Shelby Miller or Randall Delgado were also non-tendered. The D’Backs would have to be pessimistic about Miller’s recovery from Tommy John surgery or Delgado’s flexor strain to consider dumping either pitcher, though as Welington Castillo could tell you, Arizona isn’t shy about making surprising non-tender calls.
Other possibilities include shopping Patrick Corbin or A.J. Pollock, both of whom are free agents after the 2018 season. Pollock missed virtually all of 2016 due to a fractured elbow and was limited to only 112 games in 2017 due to groin and quad injuries, though he was still an above-average run creator and center field defender last season. Several teams looking for center field help would have interest in Pollock if he was made available, though given the superstar ceiling he exhibited in 2015, Arizona probably sees a healthy Pollock as a way to help fill the offensive hole left behind if Martinez departs.
After a bullpen demotion in 2016, Corbin re-established himself as a starter with a solid 3.0 fWAR season, posting a 4.03 ERA over 189 2/3 innings. He’d be a good trade chip to teams looking to add pitching, and the Diamondbacks can potentially afford to part with Corbin given how the rest of their rotation emerged as a strength last year. Even without Corbin, the Snakes would still have a nice core of Greinke, Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, and Zack Godley, with Miller scheduled for a midseason return and prospects Anthony Banda and Taylor Clarke knocking on the door to battle for the fifth starter’s job. A low-cost veteran could also be brought in if the D’Backs prefer Banda and Clarke as Triple-A depth to start the year.
Of course, the boldest move would be to trade Greinke, who just turned 34 in October and is still owed $138.5MM over the next four years. Greinke rebounded from a disappointing 2016 to display his usual excellent form last season. While the D’Backs are certainly more comfortable paying Greinke that much if he pitches like an ace, the fact that he accounts for such a significant portion of the payroll means that the team has to at least keep an eye out for trade possibilities. (Greinke has some control over his destiny in the form of a 15-team no-trade clause.) The D’Backs were reportedly trying to unload all of Greinke’s contract during trade talks in the summer of 2016; this still seems like a long shot now, though Greinke’s strong year will aid in getting more of his salary off Arizona’s books.
Losing Greinke rather than Corbin is obviously a much bigger blow to the rotation, though if a Greinke trade did become a reality, the D’Backs could still shop for more pitching. Consider that MLBTR projects Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb to find free agent deals this winter that combined won’t match what Greinke will earn over the next four seasons. Dealing Greinke and then signing Lynn or Cobb would be a downgrade at the front of the rotation but a major dose of payroll relief.
(Obligatory Shohei Ohtani mention: the D’Backs will certainly join every other team in baseball in trying to gain the attention of the Japanese superstar if and when the bidding begins on Ohtani’s services. It’s probably safe to categorize the Diamondbacks as a less-likely candidate to sign Ohtani, though they have been in the mix for high-profile Japanese players in the past.)
Turning to the relief side of the pitching equation, Arizona has some holes to fill with closer Fernando Rodney, Jorge De La Rosa and David Hernandez all hitting free agency. None of this trio would be particularly expensive to re-sign if the D’Backs simply wanted to get the band back together, though some upgrading will be necessary depending on what happens with the likes of Hoover or McFarland in arbitration. Archie Bradley could potentially take over the closer’s job from the somewhat shaky Rodney, though the team may feel he is more valuable as a multi-inning pitcher who can be deployed at any point in a game. Given their other needs and lack of payroll flexibility, expect the D’Backs to again target low-cost relief signings in the hopes of succeeding as they did with Rodney, De La Rosa, and Hoover last offseason.
Speaking of winning signings, Chris Iannetta more than delivered on his one-year, $1.5MM deal from a winter ago, as he hit .254/.354/.511 with 17 homers over 316 plate appearances. Arizona could try to re-sign Iannetta, or perhaps look to take advantage of what could be a somewhat quiet free agent catching market. The Rockies are the only contender with a clear need behind the plate, with the Nationals, Athletics, and White Sox all speculative candidates to look for catching help. With Jonathan Lucroy, Alex Avila, and Castillo as the big names on the market, a relative lack of suitors could bring one of these catchers into the Diamondbacks’ price range, or at least allow Iannetta to be re-signed on another relatively inexpensive deal. Castillo probably isn’t a candidate given that the D’Backs just parted ways with him last offseason, though Lucroy or Avila could add more pop from the catcher position if the Snakes don’t feel Iannetta can replicate his 2017 numbers.
Looking elsewhere around the diamond, the D’Backs are set at first base (Goldschmidt), third base (Jake Lamb), center field (Pollock), and right field (David Peralta). Yasmany Tomas is still penciled in as the left fielder, though he was plagued by injuries in 2017 and he has yet to show much consistency at the plate over his three-year MLB career. Socrates Brito looks like an interesting fourth outfielder candidate who could earn more playing time as Tomas’ late-game defensive replacement or even platoon partner. A Pollock trade would obviously shake things up considerably in the outfield; depending on the return in that deal, the D’Backs would then be in the market for center field help, perhaps a veteran like Cameron Maybin or Jarrod Dyson.
The D’Backs are also more than set in the middle infield in terms of sheer numbers, though they’ll be hoping for more production at the plate. Ketel Marte and Brandon Drury are the respective favorites at shortstop and second base, with Nick Ahmed also in the mix at short and Chris Owings available at both positions in his multi-position utility role. Veteran Daniel Descalso, whose 2018 option has already been exercised by the D’Backs, will also be back in a utilityman role.
This surplus of infielders capable of playing multiple positions makes the D’Backs a good trade partner for teams looking for infield help, such as the Blue Jays, Angels, Brewers, Red Sox, Rays, Mets, and Giants. No trade is likely to approach the scope of the Jean Segura deal from a year ago unless an infielder is included as part of a larger trade package, though the Snakes can certainly address at least one need depending on which infielder is traded. Drury and Owings have the most trade value but are also the two the D’Backs would probably most like to keep, particularly since Lamb still needs to be spelled against left-handed pitching.
This is just my speculation, but Lamb could also be a trade chip if Arizona is looking for players that could bring back a decent return. The 27-year-old has delivered a lot of pop over the last two seasons, though he also has some significant flaws — an inability to hit southpaws, below-average third base defense, and a tendency to fade after the All-Star break. Lamb is arb-eligible for the first time this winter and is controllable through 2020, so while the Snakes would miss his power, they could deal Lamb to address another need and then look for a third base alternative (or move Drury to the hot corner). Speculating further, the D’Backs could also try packaging Lamb and Tomas as a way of getting at least some of Tomas’ contract off the books.
Hazen decided against cleaning house in his first offseason as Arizona’s GM, and his relatively quiet winter was rewarded by a postseason trip. A busier offseason seems to be on the horizon now, however, as while Hazen is still looking to better position the team for the future, there is more pressure to win in the aftermath of 2017’s good results.
Great article. Excellent point that AZ should explore trading Greinke this winter. Teams who don’t land Arrieta or Darvish could see him as a viable option even though he’s not the elite SP he was 3 or 4 years ago, still an ace. Hard to tell if the Dodgers would still have interest, but I could see the Cubs offering a major leaguer and a prospect for Greinke and taking on the remainder of his salary.
Stop drinking the Koop-aid, who is going to take on Greinke’s contract, at best 2/3 on the dollar and forget a ML and prospect, maybe a mid-range prospect?
I think greinke is still valuable in a trade. He won’t get a teams top prospect but he’d get a fair sized package
It depends on how much money the D-backs are willing to eat. If they’re willing to pay the deferred money ($50MM/4 years) and the signing bonus payments ($3MM in each of the next 4 years) I think top prospects can and should be returned. Greinke at $21MM/year is a fantastic deal.
This assumes the D’Backs are tearing down and aren’t interested in competing in the NLW next year. Is that a safe assumption for a team that was in postseason last year, and figures to be competitive next year if they don’t sell off?
A Greinke sale does not at all rule out being competitive in 2018 although I completely agree that it knocks down their chances. Ray’s looking very ace-like, Bradley could move back to the rotation, and the D-backs could add a player like Cobb or Lynn as this article suggests.
The fact is that Kendrick is one of MLB’s cheapest owners and Derrick Hall, who does all of the talking for him, has come out and said not to expect much, if any, of a salary increase. As this article points out there are a ton of players getting arbitration raises and non-tendering alone will not free up enough to fill the vacant holes. The money has to come from somewhere. Trading Pollock would free up some cash but he’ll need replacing and any respectable replacement will likely cost more in free-agency than Pollock in arbitration. Santa could come along and agree to take Tomas off their hands but that is extremely wishful. The money issue is not going to go away for this team. I’d love to see Kendrick raise payroll to actually be inline with both team revenue and where they stand in market size, but I’ve come to know this is a hope in vain. Trading Greinke remains the most likely way for the D-backs to get the financial flexibility they’ll need. I’m a D-backs fan and think this sucks, but it’s a reality.
Don’t forgot $2M Assignment Bonus Greinke’s owed, if he gets traded.
Might as well list all of them, Right? 😛
I’d expect them to find salary space in less dramatic fashion, in line with the strategies suggested by this article. After 2018 it gets to be tough sledding for the D’backs but I think they know they have another year in their completion window before needing to tear it down.
Why is it a given that the D’backs have to reduce payroll? Seems they are committed to actually allowing it to rise somewhat.
It’s a given because that’s what the people running the team have come out and said.
No, what they actually said is they don’t expect payroll to climb significantly.
(Derrick) Hall said the Diamondbacks’ payroll will be “close to where we’ve been the last couple of years.” The club ended last season somewhere above $105 million and next year’s roster projects north of $115 million.
In any case, there’s no room for any significant roster upgrades unless they’re able to shed current payroll.
Reading further, “the club’s target 2018 payroll could rise as the offseason progresses depending on whether the club’s anticipated revenues increase, but he said that wouldn’t be a significant jump.”
azcentral.com/story/sports/mlb/diamondbacks/2017/1…
“Not a significant jump” is a far cry from the assumption that it will decline. Aside from that, it’s clear the D’backs have some other options for making payroll space without dramatically downgrading their roster.
You are mis reading it. The team started with a 100M payroll last year and ended up about 105 after adding JD and David Hernandez.. The Starting point this year will be no higher than 105, and although they may add during the season, it will certainly be less than 10M. So where they will really be is starting about 105, and if contending and buying at the deadline could go up to 110. , give or take. The Guaranteed contracts and the arb elgible players , plus pre arb players total roughly 120M. So they need to shed 15M. in payroll. .So in addition to the 3 non tenders saving 4M, they will need to decide how save at least another 10M somehow, and then STILL have not addressed the holes they have. Don’t forget that the above numbers are without resigning ANY of their free agents, several of whom made key contributions during 2017. If they don’t resign Iannetta, they will have to spend elsewhere for a catcher, there is no one in the system to fill that hole. They can slide Bradley to Rodney’s closer role, but then will need to back fill setup and middle relief roles. Will they do that from all in house ? Maybe….converting shipley to full time relief might not be a bad idea.. If Mike Hazen manages to IMPROVE this roster on paper, while managing to stay within ownerships self imposed salary Cap of 105-110 Million,, he should win a Nobel prize in economics.
I say the D’backs should stick it out heading into 2018. Corbin, Pollock, and Delgado will be free agents after the season, so if they want to shift as an organization, they might as well wait until mid-2018 and see where they are in the standings. If they’re out of it, ship those 3 guys out for prospects and gauge the market for Grienke.
I have the D’Backs as a dark horse for Zack Cozart. His market might drag with a lack of suitors and a team that doesn’t *really* need a shortstop won’t be able to pass up a small upgrade at a discounted price, especially after losing a guy like JDM.
they need to try corbin in the bullpen and if that doesn’t work trade him. and they need to unload greinkes contract to sign jd martinez and then sign goldy to a massive extension. if hey can get a decent return for pollock i say trade him and sign maybe a cameron maybin to a one or two year deal then try to get relief pitchers and more prospects
The last thing the D-backs need to do is sign JD. They don’t have that kind of money. Swapping out Greinke for Martinez just exchanges one too big for their budget contract for another.
I highly doubt they would trade lamb. He’s still young and his defense isn’t as bad as many think is he machado no but he’s not bad.
The reason trading Lamb makes sense is he saves the team almost $5MM, would return decent assets, and has a cheaper albeit right-handed replacement in Drury. Losing his power from the left side of the plate is the big issue.
Lamb is being exposed as a player who can’t hit left handed pitching (.144/.269/.288/.577 in 2017, .566 OPS career)
Unfortunately this is true. His defense at 3B also leaves a bit to be desired. I think he has more value on a team where playing both corner infield positions would be an option.
Shelby Miller should be non tenured. Hazen has no attachment of that deal to him.
For what they gave up to acquire him his rope should be longer than just about any other pitcher.. In his few games last year he wasn’t terrible and if he is able to replicate that for the first half of the season he will re-establish some value and the D-Backs could get something in return for him.. They did pick up another year of control and he is still very affordable for a starting pitcher..
What they paid for Miller doesn’t matter, that’s just a classic example of the sunk cost fallacy. Either he has a place on the roster, or he doesn’t.
This is going to be very unpopular (perhaps setting a record for down votes) but I think Arizona should trade Goldschmidt to the Red Sox for pretty much their entire farm.. Something like Groome, Travis, Chavis, Scherff, and Chatham plus one of their young MLB core Benintindi, Devers, etc. They only have 2 years of control left on him and they are not going to be a championship caliber team in those 2 years.. Goldy is already 30 and will be 32 when he becomes a free agent.. He will command a contract that Arizona should shy away from when he does become a free agent (based on his age and position)..
I know even the mention of trading Goldschmidt is grounds for getting tarred and feathered in Arizona but think of the disaster Baltimore could have avoided by trading Chris Davis before he became a free agent. Also, look at the career path of Teixiera after he signed his big free agent deal.. Goldy has already had a few injuries and extending him into his late 30’s, combined with the last few years of Greinke’s contract will prevent Arizona from doing much else in 20-21.. Trading him now when he is at peak value will surely load their farm with some needed talent and should also bring back a solid everyday MLB player in return.. Someone like Bradley Jr would also allow them to trade Pollack which would generate another huge influx to their farm and in swapping Benintindi/Devers for Bradley they might have a chance in getting Boston to pick up the tab on most of the rest of Tomas’s horrible contract as well.. The Yankees re-tool/rebuild of the last couple of years would offer a prefect blueprint for Arizona.. They are not a championship caliber team right now but with a couple of smart trades they could bring in the young talent which would make them one..
Also, Pavin Smith will be ready in a year or 2.. The D-Backs would only need a short term stop-gap to bridge the way to him.. Sam Travis looks to be someone capable of that..
I won’t downvote you but I think your idea is a year ahead of schedule. Whether the D’backs are championship material as currently constituted is kind of besides the point. They have enough to complete for another season and I believe they will do whatever they are able to keep the core of the team together, and maybe add a bit, for another run. No matter how the season turns out they are probably looking at a fire-sale this time next year (when Goldschmidt will still be controllable), and perhaps midseason if 2018 goes badly. Now is just too soon.
From a pure, org-building, conceptual perspective this makes a ton of sense. As a D-backs fan I’d be upset to see Goldy go but completely understand the reasoning and look forward to 2020. Realistically, ownership can’t do that to the fans. Season ticket sales are up after this year’s success. For the first time in forever there’s something resembling excitement in the average fan. Trading the best position player in team history while dumping the team’s ace might result in a pitch-fork mob. I get your idea and think it’s a good one. It just can’t happen.
I’ll give you a down vote, not because I dismiss the idea of trading Goldy out of hand as heresy, but because I disagree with virtually every point you made in your post.
If you we’re a realtor, I’d laugh at your comps. Davis and Texeira are one dimensional, media created, HR glamor boys who were never worth their contracts. Those players make big money on the East (over hype) Coast., most of it undeserved. Neither is in the same league with Goldy. And what is left of the Red Sox prospects aren’t appealing as a return for Goldy either, including their over-hyped young major leaguers.
On the championship caliber issue, the D’backs had the 5th best record in baseball (ironically tied with Boston, who you seem to think are 1 superstar away from championship caliber). So the D’backs are infinitely closer to championship contention than they are to tear down and rebuild mode.
The whole idea of trading Goldy to rebuild the farm system smacks of desperation. I don’t see the D’backs as being even close to desperation mode. They have one bad contract hindering them from adding those last few pieces (Tomas’) and multiple, realistic ways to rid themselves of all or a significant portion of it.
There are exactly zero, realistic ways to part with Tomas’ contract. None. No team in baseball is going to take him of the D-backs hands without including legitimate prospects and cash. It just isn’t going to happen. The only GM that might remotely consider taking on a contract like this was fired…largely because he took on this exact contract.
This MLBTR article mentioned one option. The MLBTR articles in this series “OffSeason Outlook” White Sox and Phillies both suggested that their payrolls were so low they could afford to take on a bad contract as a way to get additional prospects. The White Sox article named Yasmany Tomas as one of those bad contract players. I believe we are now exactly above zero.
Has Pavin Smith hit his first homerun yet ?