While the relief market has been highly active over the past month, there’s been little activity at the top end of the market for free agent starters. Heading into the winter, Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta stood as the top two available starters, and neither has come to terms on a new contract for the 2018 campaign. Both seem like candidates to pull in nine-figure deals, even with fairly quiet market to date, though opinions vary as to which is the better investment.
Both Darvish and Arrieta are 31 years of age, though Arrieta will pitch all of the 2018 season at the age of 32, while Darvish won’t turn 32 until next August. Arrieta, though, doesn’t have a major arm injury on his recent track record, whereas Darvish missed all of the 2015 season and part of the 2016 campaign due to Tommy John surgery.
Darvish, of course, left a poor final impression on fans when he was tattooed by the Astros in a pair of postseason outings, though SI’s Tom Verducci was told by an anonymous Astros player that Darvish was tipping his pitches in both of those outings. Prior to that ugly finish, Darvish was trending up, pitching to a 3.10 ERA with a 75-to-14 K/BB ratio in 11 starts as a Dodger (between the regular season and the first two rounds of postseason play). Overall, he finished out the year with a 3.86 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9 and a 40.9 percent ground-ball rate.
Despite the recent Tommy John operation, Darvish averaged 94.2 mph on his heater — his best mark to date in the Majors — and cleared 200 innings when factoring in postseason play. Darvish has been an All-Star in each of his four full healthy MLB seasons, and he owns a 3.27 ERA with more than 11 strikeouts per nine innings over dating back to his second big league season. In 832 1/3 Major League innings, Darvish has been worth roughly 19 WAR per both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs.
Arrieta, meanwhile, had one of the great hot streaks in MLB history in 2015 when he rode a staggeringly dominant second half to National League Cy Young honors. In Arrieta’s final 147 innings of that 2015 campaign, Arrieta pitched to an unthinkable 0.86 ERA with 147 strikeouts against 27 walks issued. Darvish cannot lay claim to a run nearly that dominant at any point in his career. (Few pitchers can, of course.)
Certainly, though, Arrieta’s dominance has not been limited to that stretch of 20 starts. In parts of five seasons with the Cubs — a total of 803 big league innings — Arrieta logged a 2.73 ERA with 8.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and considerably above-average ground-ball tendencies. His innings total has declined in consecutive seasons, though, and Arrieta’s 92.1 mph average fastball in 2017 was the lowest of his career. Arrieta’s home-run and ground-ball rates trended in the wrong direction this past season, as was the case with his velocity.
Arrieta does come with more postseason experience and success than Darvish, though that may not carry as much weight with the game’s increasingly analytically-inclined front offices. He’ll also cost his new team a draft pick in 2018, whereas Darvish isn’t tied to compensation due to the fact that he was traded midseason.
MLBTR projected nine-figure commitments for each of the two in free agency this offseason, though Darvish topped our 2017-18 MLB free agent rankings, which were based on earning potential. There have been reports suggesting that Arrieta and agent Scott Boras are seeking upwards of $200MM, while others have suggested Stephen Strasburg’s seven-year, $175MM deal as a target for Darvish and his reps at Wasserman. Of course, all agents are going to aim high early in negotiations, and those early targets don’t necessarily line up with the dollar figures that the two stars will ultimately command.
Each pitcher has his merits, and there are various cases to be made in favor of one over the other. With all of that said, I’ll open this up to MLBTR readers to voice their opinions (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)…
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Darvish- Younger, No Draft Pick, Still looks like an ace
Arrieta- older, comp pick, declining,
Phillies2017 you summed it up very well
How did he look like an ace ? His era was 4 and he has had trouble pitching 150 or more innings 2 out of the last 3 years
Quite frankly giving both a longer term commitment isn’t an exciting thought to me
Darvish younger by 5 months, not 5 years.
not sure darvish has lived up to his ace potential. maybe his 2nd season but that’s about it
Exactly
He’s only like 4 months older right? How is that even a factor?
How does that work with the compensatory picks? Why does signing Arrieta come attached with losing one but not Darvish?
Darvish was traded midseason.
Makes sense now. Texas’ compensation was their return in the trade of him.
Davish was traded during the season and could not be offered as the article said and Arriesta was offered an QO and declined.
Darvish hasn’t looked like an ace in 2 years. They’re 2 different type pitchers,but similar values. The main difference is the draft pick.
Darvish also has 1200 innings from Japan that usually no one adds to his total. If I was a team I’d pass on both. Arrieta just seems to be heading the wrong way. Plus Boras wants 6 years.
Is there really anyone who thinks arrieta will get more money than Darvish?
Wouldn’t touch either with a 10 foot pole for anything close to 9 figures.
I’ll target someone via trade or sign a bottom rotation guy (Cashner, Chacin, Lackey etc) before I did that.
Best bet would be find that moneyball deal like HOU did with Charlie Morton last year
Lol, obviously finding the next Morton would be ideal, but there is a very small chance of finding a guy like that.
True. Morton was and is an analytic darling with the spin rates he generates on his pitches. So while the logistics have to line up, it’s not exactly pure luck in finding someone like him.
I think Chatwood could be that guy from this FA class. Another guy with elite spin rates and he’s leaving the pitcher hellhole known as Coors.
Agreed that if anyone sticks out as that guy it’s Chatwood, but he was expensive unlike Morton.
exactly and that Martin has done it everyone past him will cost
Finding that type of guy has major luck involved
Signing a bottom rotation guy doesn’t make much sense if you need a top of rotation guy. The price is the price, this is what it takes to get guys of that caliber whether you think they’re worth it or not.
Don’t you mean a 39 and a half foot pole?
lol
I don’t get it … :(
It’s a lyric from “You’re a Mean One, Mr. Grinch”
where’s your Christmas spirit, man?
I think that’s why the Cubs are taking there time on all obtions
7 years for a 32 yr old pitcher. Not a good idea. Best bet is they pitch well for 3-4 more years before they start to decline rapidly. No thanks.
Jake is a solid #2 or 3 on a staff, but wants David Price type contract. Anyone that gives him more than 4 years & $100M should have their head examined. Most of his stats are trending downwards so throw in some incentives worth another $20M+. I get this is his only chance of his career to land that big deal so you can’t fault the guy for wanting to cash in.
Well, exactly. But to land a decent starter above number 3 in your rotation there’s a lot more give than take these days. That’s just the market talking.
I think I’d honestly prefer Arrieta. Durability, more play time. Longevity over concerns versus overall cost. That draft pick would suck though and Borras – ugh.
Neither are worth long term commitments as both have red flags. At least arietta is more durable but his stuff is declining and his command is too. Darvish has trouble pitching 150+ innings a year (two of His last 3 seasons played). I think arietta is the better pitcher with a better mentality for pressure situations but like I said he’s declining
Would either except a 3 year deal ? They might have to. They sure aren’t getting as much money as their agents thought they would. Not to mention next years epic market is effecting this years
Accept*
He had trouble due to the inury. last year, he was under, but averaged 6 innings per start, which is more than Arietta. He made one more start, too.
They’re both going to dramatically underperform during their upcoming contracts.
How does Darvish get caught a second time tipping his pitches? If this is true what does that say about him and LA coaches?
That the Astros coaches are better.
Beltran was better than any coach at spotting tipping of pitches!
Agreed… this feels like a leaked story to explain away his playoff struggles in 2017 and maintain his free agent value. I’m not buying the tipping assertion.
Except the “leak” came from an Astros player. What motivation does an Astros player have to explain away an opponent’s playoff struggles and help him maintain value?
Because coming from an “Astros” player makes the leak that much more believable.
Yeah! Why would you leak it at all and lose your edge?
It’s one thing to tip your pitches. It’s another thing to not be able to locate. It’s also another thing that no pitcher could throw any type of slider. For a pitcher like Darvish who worked off his slider, hitters literally had the ability to axe it out of the mix. Then you add he couldn’t command his curveball. Then it truly doesn’t matter if he was tipping. Hitters sat dead red and crushed anything hanging, because they had no fear of his slider/cu. His inability to even command his fb presented an even greater issue. So you can tip pitches, but with Darvish’s movement it doesn’t necessarily mean you can hit them. What failed Darvish was his inability to command the strike zone.
Secondly whether or not he was tipping it’s not something you can change in between one start especially in the WS. It’s the same as trying to make a mechanical adjustment.
So what does it say about Darvish? He had poor command poor location. He found himself in a pattern. The game got tight and if he worked on anything it went out the window, because athletes devolve into patterns or movements that are familiar. What does it say about the coaches? Not really much at all. As a coach all you can really do is hope. Hope that Darvish can provide some length and compete. It’s not really more to read into that all people probably want to.
Isn’t a slider the roughest pitch to throw if you want to avoid re-injury?
Neither.
They are both still available so that should tell you something.
How? The market is moving the slowest it has in recent memory. You can try and make something out of nothing, but good luck.
Left out of the article is that Darvish has something like 900+ more professional innings on his arm despite being a few months younger than Arrieta.
1200 in Japan
Arrieta’s struggle with not only velocity but command would make me wary. His throwing mechanics make it hard to repeat, and adds strain to his arm. There’s no doubt the stuff is there.
That said, he seems to keep his body in great condition, and has managed to be dominant at times despite his mechanics.
Darvish still has the velocity but has already had the arm injury. If his WS blowup was only about tipping pitches, he seems like a safer pick. I think Arrieta has the higher upside, however. Especially if he regains velocity.
Obviously, one feels better giving more years to the “safer” pitcher and giving a higher AAV to the higher upside. All else equal, I’m going with the guy willing to sign the shortest deal. That probably ends up being Darvish. But if both were somehow willing to take a 3 or 4 yr deal with the same AAV, I’m probably picking Arrieta.
But the contract matters. Can’t just go on talent alone.
How does a 32 year old pitcher regain velocity? Arrieta is not regaining velocity and he is not a better bet. Arrieta is getting worse ever season the past two seasons and losing velocity and walk rate increasing. He barely gets past the 5th inning. Sometimes he does not get out of the 5th on a regular basis
That is not ace material. That is not number 2 material. He is not an ace and never will be an ace again. He is not a better bet. He is what he is. A pitcher two years past his career year and on the decline. Take the draft pick and let him walk.
I don’t know about anyone else but Arrieta reminds me of James Shields when he hit free agency.. We all know how that turned out.. When workhorse pitchers lose velocity they decline rapidly.. The only way Arrieta will see 200 million is if he signs for Yen with a Japanese team..
Agreed. I believe he didn’t even make it to the 8th inning in any of his starts the past year. No thanks
JKB I don’t know other than guessing healing or strength. Didn’t Verlander gain more velocity last year?
GM’s are going to be wary giving either one of these guys more than five years. Look at what the Greinke contract has done to the Diamondbacks.
I agree. I think 5 years would be the max I would go if I was a GM. If that far.
One of the 7 super-rich teams will sign Darvish.
One of the 7 Super-rich team will sign Arrieta.
Let’s move on. This isn’t a mystery.
Ok which ones sign which one?
Arrieta will land in the AL West. Astros or Rangers possibly, but I see the M’s going hard after him also.
Pretty sure Houston has zero interest in Arrieta. Both Texas teams have had meetings with Darvish though.
I can see Blue Jays showing interest but there’s no way they’ll compete with the money, even though Rogers has more than enough. Astros is my bet. I can see maybe the Sox swooping in to claim one of them now the AL East is even more one-sided than ever.
I’ll take Arrieta all day. Less risk. He’s rarely been hurt. Only his hammy this past August.
Better have a deep bullpen then. You’re going to get about 5 innings and 3-runs per outing for your money.
That’s not what Arrieta’s Cubs stats say at all.
Stats mean little without context. The people who watch a lot of baseball and have caught at least 70% of his outings the past two seasons know what I’m talking about. He’s regressing rapidly, and is not worth a Strasbourg-type contract.
11 starts out o 30 where he did not get through the 5th. 12 non quaity starts. 7 starts where he did not even GET to the 5th inning.
Troll
One pitcher single handily pitched his team into playoffs winning wildcard in 2015. Won 2 road games in World Series to break teams 108 year World Series curse. The other pitcher is Yu Darvish.
And the other one did it in 2015.
Jesus talk about living in the past. Next season is 2018. That will be 3 seasons removed from his career year in 2015. His cy young year and two years removed from helping win the world series.
So you want to pay him $200 million for what he did in the past? That is a surefire way to get fired.
Theo pays on what you can do in future. That is the proper way.
Mikel Grady is the same guy who wanted the Bears to retain Jim McMahon in 1988 because of what he did in his “magical year” in 85 lol
it wasn’t a curse. It was bad teams. that didn’t deserve to win or teams that were beaten by better teams or better Field Managers.
I would take Arrieta over Darvish based upon rumors that Arrieta could be had on a 4 year deal vs 6 for Darvish. If Darvish could be had on the same contract? That would make it a tougher decision.
@docmilio5
That sure changes things. You are right. It comes down to “how much” for “how long”. All things equal I would take Darvish. But at a 4 year deal for Jake v 6 year deal for Yu, you need to take that into consideration for sure
4 years for a Scott Boras client? Yeah, don’t see that happening. Boras will be asking for something totally ridiculous like 10 and $300 knowing how he works. My guess is they’ll wait out until Darvish signs and try to top that by a year at least.
Also, the 10/300 comment was sarcasm before the trolls show up in their TrollMobile.
Oh boy a Cardinals fan is really making sense here
Jake hasn’t been a dominating ace since 2015. Darvish simply has better stuff right now, which makes him the most valuable FA this year.
Bingo.
Darvish may be most valuable free agent pitcher, but I don’t see him getting more money than JD Martinez.
But JD Martinez doesn’t pitch as well as Darvish. Not even close. That said, Darvish plays terrible outfield. You may be right.
Red Sox need an extra bat to put in cleanup spot, the bulk of their resources will and should go to Martinez, who will clear 200 mil. Darvish will get under that, but he will lead all pitchers this offseason.
Not sure on the outfield defense. I’ve seen JD play in the OF, and my bet is on Yu being better!
David C that may be the case but I do not see how one has anything to do with the other.
@chisoxcity
Well said. Most people just see the cy young season and do not understand next season will be 3 years since then.
Jake dominated the first few months of 2016 as well. But since the second half of 2016 he has not been even close to the career year guy.
In fact it was only his good first half of 2016 that made his overall 2016 look good with the overall 3.10 ERA but he has been trending he wrong way since mid 2016. He is just not an ace but wants ace money.
At the price these guys want, I vote for neither.
I’d almost rather be more interested in Alex Cobb as a free agent option than either of these two, depending on Cobb’s asking price..4 yrs, 50-55 mil. for Cobb sounds right.
eh…Mike Leake somehow earned 5/80 two winters ago, so I almost have to believe that Cobb lands closer to this territory than 4/55.
No doubt
I’d take Cobb over Darvish. Ah heck, take em both.
Not happening to much money. Lux tax and with 2019 coming will never happen.
I agree David but Cobb wants 4/20 @ 80 m total which why the Cubs haven’t signed him (yet).
What we all think and want and the players n agents are two different things sadly to say.
CObb wants 20 m per year. If he could be had or 4.at 55 he’d be a CUb.
David C I agree with you on Cobb and I think the Cubs do as well. But he is allegedly seeking $20M per year.
A better poll would be if both pitchers were to get the same contract of either 4yr 100mil or say 5yr 115mil who would you sign if you could sign one.
Good luck signing either of them with those terms.
The Cubs already popped an offer of 150 so who ever signs him that will have to be beat.
I like Darvish to preform better over the next five years. I see him signing with the Twins shortly after New Year’s for a 5/$120m deal. Or something on that line. Buying his talents until age 35. Hoping it works out.
The Twins will sign Darvish.
Probably but at no less than 5-6 years at 155-175. Not worth it.
5/125 for Darvish to the Red Sox
4/100 for Arrieta to the Mariners
Neither of this will happen.
If either one took 4 years they be a Cub by now. Your looking at 6-7 years which is why they aren’t signed. At 160-180 at least. JA n Scott B have said 190-200 Mil
We can say 4-3 100-120. If any if those were true they be signed by now.
I agree they would be signed by now if they would take 4 years. However they are not signed so though they have not agreed to 4 years they still may come around. If anyone offered 6-7 years they would be signed by now as well.
I would not be surprised at a 4 year deal. I would be surprised if either gets 6 years. I will be shocked if anyone gets 7 years.
Yeah, I agree with the Sox. They have to shore up decent pitching now the AL East is even scarier.
Do the Red Sox need to shore up starting pitching that badly? Sale, Pomeranz, Price, EdRod, Porcello (With Wright as a spot 6th) doesn’t make you feel it?
As a Yankee fan my perspective is that the AL East is returning to the early 2000’s where it’s the Yankees and Red Sox battling for the division. The rays are in rebuild mode (but always pesky), the o’s are going to take massive losses with jones, machado and Britton walking along with their horrid pitching staff and the jays already took a major step back last season. Donaldson is gone, Bautista is done and parrot boy walked last off season. Sanchez may never be the same pitcher again too. Stroman is one of my fav pitchers though
All things being equal, I’d take Darvish. But if you’re talking 6/160 for Yu vs. 4/100 for Jake…I dunno.
Pass on both at that rate.
Neither player will produce a return at those numbers. If the team they pitched for last year won’t pay them why should anyone else? Which team is one SP from a WS? They both are high risk/age/breakdown players.