Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. Last night, we kicked off the series with Manny Machado’s arbitration breakdown. Full 2018 projected arbitration salaries for every player are also available here at MLBTR.
Mookie Betts brings a rare combination of speed and power to his first year of arbitration eligibility, making his case a tricky one to project. The model places him at $8.2 million, which seems likely to be too high. The model tends to notice that having solid numbers in multiple statistical categories can aggregate up to a larger effect than the sum of its parts, but this can also lead to overly aggressive projections in some cases. With Betts entering arbitration with the rare combination of 78 career home runs and 80 stolen bases thus far in his young career, the arbitration model may exaggerate that combined effect.
The last time a player entered arbitration with both 60 homers and 60 steals in his career was 2010, when Matt Kemp did it. Hanley Ramirez also did in 2009. However, both signed multi-year deals without exchanging arbitration figures, so they may not be relevant comparables when examining Betts. For what it’s worth, they got $4MM and $5.55MM, respectively, in their first years as part of their multi-year deals. However, this is of limited value, especially given how stale these salaries are.
No one in the past five years with 70 career home runs going into arbitration has had more than 32 stolen bases, and no one in the past five years with 70 career stolen bases going into arbitration has had more than 59 home runs. The latter player was Drew Stubbs, but his .213 platform average and .241 career average, along with just 14 of those home runs coming in his platform season, combine to make him a poor comparable. His $2.83MM salary is well short of where Betts will end up.
If we want to look only at platform year stats, when Betts had 24 home runs and 26 stolen bases, Manny Machado seems like a plausible comparable. He had 35 homers and swiped 20 bases when entering arbitration for the first time two years ago, leading to a $5MM salary. However, he only had 10 stolen bases in his career prior to his platform season, so Betts could argue that he should top this. He also has 10 more career home runs than Machado had at the time and a higher career average (.292 versus .281). Of course, his platform year average of .264 is well short of Machado’s .286. I could see the Red Sox pushing down on his Betts’ salary by suggesting Machado as a comparable.
To get anywhere near the $8.2MM projection, Betts’ agents will need to hit on the fact that Betts’ 2016 performance nearly won him an MVP Award. Players with that type of hardware, such as Buster Posey ($8MM in 2013) and Ryan Howard ($10MM in 2008) stand atop the list of highest first year arbitration salaries. Betts did get 9 of 28 first place votes, with the other 19 and the award itself going to Mike Trout. Admittedly, however, I think such an argument would be a tough sell.
In all likelihood, Betts end up closer to Machado’s $5MM, but somewhat extra for the stronger career totals. I would guess the model falls a couple million short in this instance, as Betts ends up with a first-time arbitration salary around $6MM.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Hopefully the Red Sox play this one smart and the club and Betts don’t need to go to arbitration. The organization needs to buy back a little good will after Betts refused to sign last year. And the Red Sox don’t have the best track record of treating their start players with much respect during long term contract extensions (remember the Jon Lester debacle?)
Good will was spent last year when they gave him $1M,
Matt Kemp and Hanley comparisons would make me queasy, longer term. Probably just a coincidence
Red Sox should offer him a 5 year 70 mill deal to buyout his arb years at higher prices and buy out two free agent years at little below market value.
1st year 7 mill
2nd year 11 mill
3rd year 13 mill
FA1 19.5 mill
FA2 19.5 mil
Hits the market at 29 for another big lay day.
Interesting that you mentioned his age at the end of your proposed extension. It’s actually 30 tho. His bday is in October so following the end of that 5th season and headed into FA he will be 30. Now he will play the entire 2023 season at the age of 29 but he definitely will be 30 that October. If Betts is till a 5 WAR player each year then the Sox are getting him well below market value when they buyout his 3 remaining arbitration years. If I’m his agent, I don’t give them 2 FA years too. If he’s elite defensively and is still a good offensive player than marketing him as a 28 year old sounds a lot better than a 30 year old. He can probably get a deal as good if not better than what Heyward signed at the age of 26 (8/$184 or avg of $23 per)..
5 years $70 millions for Mookie?? If he hits free agency at age 27 he will make $300 million+
His agent should be fired for accepting that. Any extension that’s short of $250,000 and 10 years at this point shouldn’t even be considered. Unless you want to do a 3 year deal with an opt out at the 4th which would be the first free agent year. But only upside for the team would be cost certainty so I’m not sure they would do it
Short of $250,000,000* not $250,000
Exactly. After next year free agent signings a new bar will be set for his big payday. He would be crazy to sell any free agent years. I’m sure Boston will fight him for less $$$ and sour him. They won’t spend money on him in free agency.
What about a 4 year 56 million dollar deal?
Mookie and Xander both decided they wouldn’t sign deals after last year. Why would Mookie sign a deal after he had a worse year than the previous year anyway? They will get a power hitter (probably JDM), providing Mookie more protection in the lineup and he’ll rebound statistically. It’d be foolish for him to sign before that happened. I think it’s good for both sides to wait it out at least one more year.
Betts is soooooo overrated….. a good player, no doubt, but nothing all that special
I was going to post a bunch of stats to show you how wrong you are but I decided my time was better spent laughing at your comment.
Except that Betts over the last three years has been one of the top 10 players in all of baseball so yeah way overrated.
“Best”
If he’s not careful, John Henry will banish him to Pawtucket;)
If he doesn’t perform you’re probably right
And the clown speaks actually it looks like to clowns today realhalsteinclown is also inline for the clown award that Mikeyank has a hold of. The funny thing is if the Cashman has signed Rusney he would be doing the same thing as Boston get real its a business and at the end of the day Rusney Still gets paid.
He’s a Scott Boras guy. No hometown discount there….
Boras is not Mookies agent.