The Blue Jays and third baseman Josh Donaldson have avoided an arbitration hearing by agreeing to a $23MM salary for the 2018 season, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (via Twitter). That massive payday represents an all-time record payout for an arbitration-eligible player on a one-year contract. Donaldson, a client of MVP Sports Group, is entering his final year of team control and will be a free agent following the season.
Donaldson, 32, recovered from a slow (by his lofty standards) start to the 2017 season and closed out the year on a blistering hot streak, during which he was one of baseball’s best hitters (if not the very best). From Aug. 1 through season’s end, Donaldson batted a ridiculous .302/.410/.698 batting line with 22 homers in 227 plate appearances. That Herculean stretch took his season batting line from .243/.364/.442 on the morning of Aug. 1 all the way to his final slash of .270/.385/.559.
The record payday handily tops the projected arbitration salary from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, whose arbitration projection algorithm had pegged Donaldson at $20.7MM. Recognizing the unique nature of Donaldson’s case, Matt took a lengthier look at the factors that could’ve factored into negotiations in an Arbitration Breakdown piece on Donaldson, explaining the reasoning behind the $20.7MM figure as well as some ways in which the projection could’ve been off target.
That ultimately proved to be the case, as Donaldson now has his name in the arbitration record books. Prince Fielder’s $15.5MM contract was the largest one-year offseason payout for an arbitration-eligible position player, while David Price’s $19.75MM salary in his last year before free agency was the largest one-year, offseason payout on record to date. (The “offseason” distinction is of note, as the Nationals bought out Bryce Harper’s final year of arbitration eligibility for a hefty $21.65MM back in May, though Donaldson’s contract obviously tops that mark as well.)
Over the past three seasons in Toronto, Donaldson has been one of baseball’s elite players, posting a .285/.387/.559 slash (150 OPS+) while playing excellent defense at third base. Though he’ll hit the open market in advance of his age-33 season next winter, the 2015 American League MVP will have a strong case for a nine-figure contract in free agency, assuming good health and a characteristically excellent season in 2018.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
23M? Are you joking me? That’s insane.
No kidding! Wow. Did they think he would get more in an arbitration hearing?
That’s what I don’t get. Even if they got crushed in a hearing it probably would have been less. Maybe it’s in good faith to try and get extension done
An arbitrator can only decide between the numbers offered by the team, or the agent. The Blue Jays offered the low number. The agent had the high number. They settled in between.
I agree for the old way of things but if the game is changing where fewer large free agent deals are handed out then the players need to see their share in arbitration. So MVP caliber players should be making 20 million plus in arbitration.
I completely agree with you, pd14….as teams look to younger, more controllable players with less emphasis on large, long-term contracts, the elite players have a harder time earning what they’re due.
No they should not. This is a ridiculous amount of money for arbitration.
What old way are you talking about? This process has been in place for 30 years.
Can someone help me? I’ve tried to understand arbitration before and honestly I don’t get it. My big question: so will Donaldson still be a FA after 2018? Or is this like a year extension to 2019?
Also, what would happen if the Jays were like “we aren’t paying you this much my for one where we won’t compete.” Would he be FA?
They’d go to arbitration and then the arbitrator would decide the salary. If the jays didn’t want him they’d non tender him months ago, but that only happens with marginal players
He’s a free agent next year. This deal just means they don’t go into the arbitration process and instead avoid it.
Wow nice payday. I see him, given his age, getting a deal similar to Cespedes next offseason. 4 Years 110 mill., something like that. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the Yankees sign him next year.
He isn’t worth almost 30 million AAV, especially since he’s almost at the end of his prime years
I could see him being like Beltre and still be very productive when he’s in his late 30’s
He’s averaged over 7 WAR a season since he broke out, which includes his injury shortened year last year (which he showed no lingering effects). If he has a healthy, typical Donaldson season, he’s earning that $30m AAV without a problem.
I don’t want him on the Yankees. I think he’s overrated.
Overrated ? Absolutely not. I’m a fan of his. Still can’t believe the A’s gave him to Toronto for peanuts lol
The Cubs gave him to the A’s for even smaller peanuts.
If the Pirates were one of those earlier trades for peanuts, the Pirates fans would have been screaming their lungs out for years now about how bad of a FO the Pirates have more missing out on Donaldson. Just goes to show that some players take a while to mature to their potential. Glad for Donaldson that he is realizing that potential.
Yeah but in the end, 3B worked out okay for the Cubs.
That’s for sure.
We all knew he would be traded eventually, but not with 4 years of team control left! The first half of 2014 was so much fun to watch. Then the second half was a miserable collapse. And then guys started getting shipped elsewhere.
Waaaay more than ok lol
Overrated? Get a clue.
Wow, that’s a lot of coin! Jays must believe the 2nd wild card spot is obtainable.
not really like they have a choice. That is pretty my h the going rate. This really makes no difference to the Jays as if they trade him the contract is about as expected and if the keep him they would already have budgeted for about that salary- not like it is a huge surprise number.
Should have been for 4 years, pick up JD Martinez, trade for Domingo Santana and sign one of Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb or Jeremy Hellickson then the jays would be well on their way to contend this season… imo
hahaha thanks. needed a good laugh
He said be on the road, at least they’d be closer to a wild card spot if they did half of that. They need minimum 2 starters, 2 realivers, 2 OF, and a first basemen.
Why do you need a 1b? Don’t you have smoak?
My lord for a soon to be declining third baseman ??????? What in the world are the jays thinking ? Charlie Blackmon must be shaking his head now. Imagine what Springer will get in arbitration, yikes
Lol, declining? Is that a joke?
I said soon to be declining
Why does “soon to be declining” matter on a one year contract?
Like your logic skills? Oops to late
Declining 3rd baseman? Donaldson is arguably one of, if not the best third baseman in the game right now. I see the AAV to be fair for him, I just wish the length would be 4 years
I said “soon to be”. He will be 32 by next off season so if an extension is worked out I wonder how long the jays will go ? And arenado imo is the best third baseman in baseball but josh is up there
Its one year, not a multi year extension, don’t know why its so hard to believe. Anyone would pay for one year of Donaldson at that price or raise
I don’t doubt there are plenty of teams that would happily pay twice that price or even more for Donaldson on a 1-year contract. The Cards for sure would.
Donaldson can carry a team on his back for a stretch and very few players can do that. Teams will pay big money for this guy even with the injuries.
Declining? That’s just not true. And he’s got an MVP under his belt which would have surely factored into negotiations. While I agree it seems like they may have overpaid by 2-3 million let’s not act like this was blasphemy here.
I wonder what Springer will get and also how does Blackmon feel as he got peanuts
I don’t think you understand how arbitration works
Blackmon is not on the same level as Donaldson and wasn’t making anywhere close to what he was making last year. Guys don’t just randomly get 10 million arbitration raises
Neither does Toronto apparently
nothing “random” about Donaldson’s contract either- which by the way was not arbitrated.
It’s his final trip through and he made around $18 million last year. This is exactly what he should be making based on the process. Hell, he quite possibly could have filed for $25+ and gotten it based on his resume and counting stats.
…he’s arb. eligible and this deal covers nothing but his age 32 year. It’s a fine deal.
Blackmon’s numbers are inflated because of where he plays, and Springer is not close to FA.
I believe arbitration figures ($$$) are based on days of professional service at MLB level and performance -Not affected by age. At least, that is what writers make me understand when they said the agent or team can compare a player with a previous arbitration hearing of a player with similar days of service and performance.
since josh made around 18 million last season if I’m not mistaken could that have set the bench mark for this big raise ? I’ve never fully understood this process to be honest
Methinks a contract extension is in the works.
He will be 32 by next off season. Is a long term extension a good idea at this point ?
You damn right it is! Look at his numbers even after his injury-plagued start!? You take the same production of every other hitter from the time he came back to the end of the season and he was the overall best in the bigs! Imagine if he’d produced all year like that?! He’d be the mvp again and the jays would’ve made the postseason!
I agree with everything you just said except the postseason.
Me too.
Definitely a good pick up when you consider that JD Martinez is going to get something between $25-28 million. Donaldson is better both offensively and defensively and plays a premium position. As others mentioned, I would have preferred to see an extension, 4 years, $100 million, something like that, but can’t complain.
I think it is justified. For a guy who has been worth over 300M over the length of his current contract. JD has already stated he wants to stay in TO. Extend him with a 5/125. I have seen writeups where Vladdy may be at 1B when he gets up the the majors so why not. Not sure why anybody would think he is in decline though either. Over 20HR’s in 200AB’s with a .300 average? What kind of upside down world do you live in?
I don’t think 5/125 gets it done. Not when Hosmer is turning down 7/147 deals
Hosmer is younger. You’re comparing apples to oranges.
I agree they should have went longer with Donaldson, and as for Vlad jr, I may be wrong, but can’t he play a corner outfield position as well? so not like he would get blocked by an extension.
Did Toronto really perceive a risk in going to arbitration and losing for more than $23M? Or is this a ‘feel-good-get-it-out-of-the-way” deal. It does seem a little rich.
It’s possible that they don’t really have much intention to spend on this years free agent pool they just gave it to him. Could be wrong though
That would be a poor allocation of resources
That’s not how the jays management works. They’re often right up against Rogers’ internal cap which makes even small in season deals hard. They aren’t just giving out money for the sake of giving it out. They might have given out an extra 1 million dollars now, but in the long run it could help work out an extension or simply just avoided arbitration
It’s a very real possibility Donaldson could have filed for well over $23 million and won. He made $18 million last year, it would have been his final trip through the process(aka most expensive), he has an MVP award, he’s a 3 time All Star, has a Silver Slugger and a Hank Aaron award. Add in his counting stats and top tier defensive ability and I don’t see how loses if they go to a hearing.
more than likely they are negotiating a longer term deal and knew it would take at least an AAV of $25 million. This was simply taken as the first year of several or hopefully to close his career as a Jay
23 million lol.. if I was an owner once a player made a salary over a million dollars I’d get rid of them quick. I mean I can see a ball player making a decent wage maybe 100k or so but anything more is absurd.
So you’d just run out a team of pre-arb and replacement level guys then, What a strange comment
Good thing you aren’t an owner
$100K? That’s 20% of MLB minimum. I’m not crying for the owners. Talent gets paid.
Derek Jeter, is that you?
Why should the owners get to keep all the revenue generated by MLB? Can’t recall the last time I ran out and bought tickets to watch some owner own. Your POV would be out of place during the last quarter of the last century and it’s certainly useless now.
You do realize that the owners are still getting seriously paid AFTER these contracts for the players are handed out right?
Great move. He’s deserved the money so give him a fair offer and get ready for the season. JD wants to be in Toronto and Toronto wants him to be in Toronto so why mess around? Hopefully this sets the ground work for an extension at a similar 23-25MM AAV.
From what I see even if He were to regress a little bit year over year something like a 4 year 92MM-100MM extension makes perfect sense.
If Donaldson gets that what does Manny Machado get? projection was around $17mil
Machado will at least match this I would imagine
Machado was only making 11.5 million last year. How on earth would he match this?
Machado doesn’t have the same case as Donaldson. This is actually where age doesn’t help Manny’s case. Manny doesn’t have the Hardware JD does, JD’s offensive numbers are better and Manny only made $11.5 million last year vs Donaldson’s $17 million. I really doubt Manny gets more than $15 or $16 million, especially with his relatively down year last year.
I don’t fully understand how arbitration works
Read mlbtraderumors primer on their arbitration model on how it works. Arbitration is complicated but they do a good on breaking it down.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/10/mlb-trade-rumors-arbitration-model.html
Arb is basically just being judged and paid based upon you comps, players who put up similar stats. Super 2 guys get 4 trips through and everyone else gets three trips. Instead of a making a close to min salary, as a majority of guys do after 2 years, super 2s see a significant salary bump before their third year. That extra salary bump is important as the arb years add up.
@ Yankeepatriot
You’re being foolish. You’ve thrown shade at this deal, yet you openly admit that you don’t understand how arbitration works.
Comparing Donaldson to Blackmon, Arenado, Machado are bad as they’re not super two players.
If you’re going to look for comparisons Donaldson matches up nicely with Harper (both were super two players, both are former MVPs, SS, etc.). On top of that, arbitration doesn’t care for age. It only considers the traditional stats (HR, RBI, BA, etc.)
The Nats bought out Harper’s final year of arbitration for $21.65mm. so $23mm for Donaldson is very much justified.
Well I just read about it and I fully understand the process now. I can see why he got 23 million. I wonder if sabermetrics will be taken into account in the future for arbitration as they are really prevalent in today’s game
Donaldson up until now has been a better baseball player than Machado. No he never had the top prospect shine and he can’t play SS but in terms of their output as third basemen leading up to this season JD has better stats and an MVP to his name.
Manny will outperform him from this day forward looking at say the next 7 years total value wise but seeing as this is based on their production to date and awards and is a one year deal JD should rightfully make a decent amount more than Machado.
machado only made 11,5 million last year because he wasnt a super 2. a 17 Mill this year would be a 5.5 million arb raise which is substantial..
Donaldson was a super 2 and he made 17 mil last year so a 23 mil would mean a 6 mil raise as well.
If Donaldson gets $23mil what does Machado get? his projection was $17mil
About 17.
his last few months stats weren’t “ridiculous”. now if it was .450/.567/900, yes that’s ridiculous.
You know whats ridiculous, no one had a better wRC+ from aug 1 onwards.
If Donaldson could just play the Twins all the time, he’d have earned 40 in arbitration. He eats them alive every single Time
Donaldson and the Jays agreeing on a contract this year is a no brainer. He can still carry the team when healthy.
As far as moving forward, I scout him as 3 more good years, perhaps with injuries, then the bat goes south fast. He is paid based on decent glove, a great arm and a superstar bat.
The Jays know his bat isn’t going into his late 30’s. He is very injury prone. He is not David Ortiz. The Jays won’t give him 4 years on a contract and he likely will be asking for 5 years.
Unless the Jays surprise us, let’s be thankful we have him signed for one more year before he likely gets traded at the deadline. Sad but true. My bet is he’ll end up on the west coast at trade deadline time and free agency will take him to AA in Atlanta or the team that is in love with him. St louis.
Good for Donaldson, he’s a great player, I’m no expert and I’m sure there is some reasoning, but Blackmon get only 14 mil???
He doubled last years salary
Blackmon is not as good a Donaldson. His offensive numbers are inflated because he plays in Denver. And I believe, he is average defensively.
Nope
So by those metrics Manny should get 40mil.
You clearly don’t understand how the projection system works.
Donaldson was better last year
And in 2015 too.
I think it’s Toronto’s way of showing good will with Donaldson and hoping he remembers it when he hits Free Agency. Overpay now in hopes to retain him, all things be near equal he comes back at a little discount possibly
Much of the sabremetrics have minimal use, but the AgeYear does. JD will be in his 32 year. The figure does not match his age or his injured output. It does appear his power remains. Good luck to the team and the player.
It’s brilliant. Show him love and respect going into the walk year May cement a longer term relationship.
Not a chance this helps Donaldson stay with the Jays in 2019+. 99.9% of players will go for the moneyxterm. That won’t be the Jays offering big longterm dough. Shaprio and Atkins haven’t done a longterm contract yet and likely won’t with Donaldson. He will walk.
Thats not going to help the Orioles in their arb case against Machado. Angelos is not happy. It also means the Jays are probably not going after any top FA or they might have wanted to save a few dollars here
Insane for arbitration. All this will do is help raise all salaries in future to an even more ridiculous level.
So, he gets $6MM raise for having a down year?
A down year? Whose standards
Please explain how a guy who just put up a 5 fWAR season in 113 games had a down year?
Also arbitration doesn’t work like that, basically every player entering arbitration will get a raise.
I’d have gone to arbitration. He is not going to be a Blue Jay after this year anyhow, so what is the point about potentially causing hurt feelings? Having an extra 3 MM towards another player potentially could have been helpful to put towards another player or used internally with the organization.
This is not a very logical comment, if they felt they couldn’t resign him then the extra 3 mil is better off in the teams hands, teams don’t generally gift 3 mil to a player they don’t think will be with them next year. If anything the 3 Mil you seem to think he wouldn’t get through arbitration but did get in a settlement is more like a goodwill gesture it seem. There has been no indication that he wants to move on and there has been no indication that the Jays don’t want to keep him, if anything of all the big free agents next year he seems like the likeliest to remain with his current team.
This has got to be a good faith move by Toronto to try and retain Donaldson moving forward. Presumably they’d like him around this year and maybe next at 3rd then shift to 1B or DH when Vlad Jr. comes about (or shift Vlad Jr. back to OF.) He’s historically produced well as a DH outside of last year so that seems reasonable enough if his defense starts to slip.
While I think the deal is fair, for them to agree to it so simply has to be for a reason.
Maybe they agreed to the deal because he is a good player. Vlad Jr. Probably hasn’t proven himself as an everyday player. Why dump a good player that is still young.