The Nationals have announced that they’ve agreed to terms with Bryce Harper on a deal for the 2018 season. Harper will receive $21.625MM, making his 2018 salary the largest ever for a player who would have been eligible for arbitration, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag writes (Twitter links). Harper can also receive up to a maximum of $1M in bonuses, according to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links) — he can receive the full $1M for winning the NL MVP, $500K for second, $250K for third, $150K for fourth and $100K for fifth, and he can also receive $100K each for winning an All-Star berth, a Gold Glove or a Silver Slugger. Harper was already under team control through 2018, so he can still become a free agent following the 2018 campaign.
Harper’s massive 2018 salary surely provides a bit of satisfaction for his agent Scott Boras, whose love of precedent-shattering contracts is well known. Harper is making $13.625MM in 2017, his second to last season before hitting the market. His $21.625MM salary next season gives him a big raise that’s difficult to evaluate, since so few players have come anywhere near that figure during their arbitration-eligible seasons. Jake Arrieta was the highest paid arbitration-eligible player last offseason, at $15.637MM; the year before that, Aroldis Chapman made the most, at $11.325MM. That year, Josh Donaldson agreed to a two-year extension that bought out two seasons of arbitration eligibility at $11.65MM and $17MM. In 2014-15, David Price received $19.75MM from the Tigers for his last arbitration season. The year before that, Clayton Kershaw received a salary of $4MM plus an $18MM signing bonus in agreeing to a long-term deal that bought out his last year of arbitration eligibility.
Of those, the Price and Kershaw salaries stand out as the clearest precedents for Harper’s current deal. Another is Mike Trout’s current long-term contract with the Angels. That deal is, of course, significantly different in structure and purpose than Harper’s 2018 deal, but it pays him $19.25MM for this season, which he entered with five-plus years of service time.
Harper’s $5MM 2016 salary was relatively low in part because he agreed to it following the 2014 season as part of a two-year extension that settled a grievance between with the Nats about a clause in the contract he signed upon being drafted. But Harper got a huge $8.625MM raise for 2017 (shattering MLBTR’s projection) that probably came thanks largely to his monstrous 2015 season, in which he batted .330/.460/.649 while hitting 42 home runs and winning the NL MVP award. That big 2017 salary established a baseline that led to his record-breaking deal for 2018. After somewhat of a down year in 2016 that might have been partially due to shoulder troubles, Harper has begun the 2017 season on an MVP-caliber pace yet again, hitting a ridiculous .372/.496/.717 so far.
In the past, Harper and Boras have shown intense interest in testing the free agent market rather than signing a long-term deal, and Harper’s new contract for 2018 does nothing to change that. He’ll still be eligible in the 2018-19 offseason, joining a headline-grabbing free agent class that also includes Donaldson and Manny Machado. Harper will still be just 26 at that point and could yet again set a contract record, particularly if anything resembling his current 2017 pace continues until then. Following the 2015 season, Harper suggested to a reporter that he thought he could make over $400MM on the open market.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Yankees soon
Maybe not, with that facial hair policy. Mattingly! Cut those sideburns!
Nah, he’ll be a Phillie.
Have you ever read his many Yankee quotes in interviews. Do yourself a favor and go back and read some and then come back to earth!
Do yourself a favor and don’t believe everything you read on the internet
I actually always thought he would end up a Yankee too, until recently. The way the Yankees have operated in the last few years under Hal Steinbrenner, I don’t see them making the commitment that Harper will command. I think they’re more likely to put together a package to get Mike Trout—and they’re one of the few teams with the resources to legitimately do it—than they are to sign Harper for $400M. The Phillies, meanwhile, have made no secret of their intent to go big in free agency soon. My guess is they’ll land either Harper or Machado, and while Machado might be a better all-around player right now (due to his defensive prowess at a demanding position), Harper is likely a better long-term investment (10+ years, which either will command).
Some of those interviews were on this new fangled invention..the Television!
More likely the Dodgers. He is from Las Vegas and LA is the nearest team that can afford Harper.
He’s going to whoever gives him the most money. It’s not rocket science.
That’s the way Boros usually plays it. But at the numbers Harper will receive, he will get huge offers anyway so he doesn’t have to go for the highest.
I was gonna say bombshell. Not huge news though since he’s under control anyways
I was fixing to freak out but then I saw 2018 lol
Going to the Yankees would be a dream come true for him
Where would he play though
Isn’t Aaron judge racking them and playing the same position ?
I don’t think Brett Gardner is gonna block Bryce Harper
I’m a big Judge fan but it’s no guarantee he will still be a success. Sure hope so though.
If the Yankees keep Judge and sign Harper , I wouldn’t rule out Judge being moved to LF. Gardners a FA after 2018 also.
Yeah and Aaron Hicks is making it hard to remove him from the lineup too…
I think it’s safe to say that they’d make room for him without Judge being benched.
You really think Harper can handle anything other than the corner outfield ?
You’re talking about a catcher that became an outfielder. He is fast yes but do you really think he can handle center ?
I’m being serious here
Think of all those other bats coming up. I really think the heavy spending days of the Yankees are done. They might do a little hear and there but I seriously doubt they will pay a 400 mil dollar contract to have Bryce
They could just move Judge to DH. He isn’t the best fielder. Not terrible, but Bryce is better, and it wouldn’t force either of them to play out of their position by making one of them play LF
Not terrible..watch some games and see wow athletic Judge is..omg!
they’ll find room 🙂
I think with a player like Harper there’s not going to be any pause because of positional stuff. The Yankees have Ellsbury for 4 more years and he can probably handle center, and they have Clint Frazier in the minors, who is also an outfielder although it seems they’re moving him away from center. Regardless, Frazier or Judge or Gardner aren’t going to block Harper. He’l play a corner, the Yanks will live with Ellsbury in center for as long as they can, Judge will play the other corner or move to first if Bird is as bad as he’s shown this season. And of course, the DH.
New Yankee stadium doesn’t play quite as well for LHB as the old one did, but it would still be a great place for Harper. I would guess Nationals are the odds-on favorite but the Yankees are easily second. The team that could *really* use Harper is the Giants. But it’s not clear what their plans are.
As far as Machado, that’s a tough one. I would have said the Red Sox until a few weeks ago. He’s going to age out of his position faster than Harper, but Machado might be a good outfielder or second baseman.
Nationals would have to defer waaaaaay too much $ to be the favorites
If I was a player wouldn’t I want deferred money? Not like Harper will be wanting for cash or anything, but if you can get the Bonilla deal don’t you take it? The spigot stays open long after you aren’t hitting homers anymore.
Not necessarily. Depending on the fluctuation of inflation rates, that sum of deferred money could be – and I’d say is likely to be – discernibly less valuable 10 or 20 years down the road.
Except I believe deferred money gets put in interest-earning accounts or low-risk bonds? Bonilla’s was/is.
Just a pay raise before he leaves the nats
Go Yankees overpaid for Harper. Just forget what happened with Arod
yeah 2 mvp awards and 55 or so wins across 12 years. to say nothing of the merchandise money that he brought in. what a shame that would be indeed.
a ring!!
Way to totally decide to ignore how his tenure ended up
While the Yankees were stupid to give A-Rod the contract they did—they were essentially bidding against themselves like the Rangers had, only this time the Yankees knew that—but I doubt they’d ask for do-over if it meant not keeping A-Rod. yes, the end was bad, and all the PED issues weren’t pretty, but the Yankees are about ticket sales and titles, and with A-Rod they achieved both, and likely would not have won in ’09 without him.
Well all long contracts end up bad because of normal aging curves, But Arod was a tremendous player for the Yankees. That’s the one caveat about Machado, though – a shortstop who doesn’t run well and the aging curve isn’t a great combo. At the end, even when ARod could still hit, he had zero value defensively or on the basepaths, and Machado has already stopped running. And his rapidly declining walk rates are troublesome.
I don’t know why people are assuming Harper will become a Yankee when there are 29 other teams who will undoubtedly inquire about him
Agree, but with the amount of $ he’s likely going to get, I think you can make that go from 29 teams down to about 3-5.
Money and his favorite team dating back to childhood days playing with Bryant in Las Vegas
There is a quote somewhere saying he’d love to be a yankee
Yanks usually spend the most money and they have a lot of big contracts coming off the books the next couple years to open up room.
Neil Huntingdon: “Hi Scott. Does Bryce want to play in Pittsburgh for way less money than other teams are offering by any chance? No? OK. Thanks.”
Looks like the Nationals are trying to persuade Harper to sign a long term deal with them, following 2018. Why else voluntarily give that much money to A player already under your control? All things being equal, I imagine Harper would stick with the Nationals, but in this day and age, I’d call the Nats delusional if they think he’ll give them a hometown discount…especially with Scott “Shark” Boris as Harper’s agent.
If it went to arbitration, it’s possible he could have ended up with even more. Control means no one else can sign him; it doesn’t mean his 6th year arb salary will be a screaming bargain. Plus, arbitration is ugly, and they’ve already had conflicts. It might be better to just have it done now, with no ill will heading towards his free agency.
He will end up signing a huge 5 or 6 year deal with an opt out after 2 years. That seems to be all the rage in contracts these days
I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s an 8 to 10 year deal with several opt outs along the way.
They need to stop that
Why?
Opt outs ?
So they can resign with the same organization and get more when they already have 10x more than they’d ever need for life to live comfortably forever ?
Why shouldn’t they maximize their earning potential? Also, if they end up not liking the city, they can re-enter the market and go somewhere they prefer. Why is this such a problem?
Why do any of us care about how much money baseball players make? The teams and owners (and commissioner) make way more than the players do.
I agree, opt-outs are just player leverage.
If they play poorly, they can stay and earn big bucks, if they do well they can opt-out and start the bidding all over again.
I say sign a 2-year deal like they did not too long ago or go long-term. No fickle contracts.
who will end their career as a yankee? Harper or Trout? (or both??!!)
I think Machado is the Yankees big free agent choice (and I say this as a die hard O’s fan). They’re much deeper in the OF.
Machado being the Yankees’ choice doesn’t mean that they would be his. He and Harper will probably end up able to pick from any of most of the big market clubs.
That would make sense. Yanks are deep in outfield with prospects but need to replace Headley at 3rd
Replace headly ?
Ok we give you our third baseman for Torres
Trout will end up in Philly
Trout will be a phillie after 2020
Neither. Yankees need a 3B way more than another high-priced OF……and Machado will be their primary target.
Machado will be a cardinal no questions asked. He can be the next face of the franchise after yadi and fill a huge need that has been open for quite sometime. The cards have a new tv contract and are loading up with his friends. U heard it here first!
No questions asked? Are you stupid? I’ve got a ton of questions. Like, what are you smoking?
Gotta call someone stupid? Guess the “Boi” thing makes sense now
Lol
Doubt it
I see him going to Miami after the new ownership before I see him going to cardinals
Cardinals prefer to build from within
Miami… they won’t pay him to play, once his contract ends he will receive a 100% stake in ownership since that’s all the marlins are worth after you count debts.
Machado is the most logical to not be a Yankee IMO. Don’t they have Torres and someone else blocked in the infield already… I could see Harper go to the Yankees in a heartbeat. Depends on what the nats do this year. Trout is going to get paid to stay out West. I doubt the Angels let him leave.
Overpay!!! Just kidding. I think Boras forced them into that extension as a requirement to even consider a long term deal from the Nats.
There’s no forcing Boras works for him period!
And Harper is enough of a douche to sit on a couch cross legged wearing sunglasses indoors while Boras presents his demands.
So what is actually the point of this from the Nats perspective?
Get him under contract now to avoid any hassles like lingering negativity from arbitration. Also, might be a bit of a discount from what he’d have gotten. From an ownership perspective, a player like Harper, if this season is like his ’15, he could have possibly set an entirely new arbitration benchmark, and they don’t want that either.
But would his arb really have reached 20 mil? I could understand locking in a salary at 17 or 18 maybe. Seems more like a bonus or reward than anything.
In their first year of FA players see 40-50% jump in salary from their final year of arbitration. Puts Harper at $31-33 million. That makes a 10 year, $400 million contract for Harper a real possibility.
Machado both knees injury . Harper neck issues. They both can go to the Yankees. The Dodgers prefer Arenado , Trout.
How do you know the Dodgers prefer them?
Because you talking more than 750 m for 2 player that been injured too many times ( knee , neck ) arenado is the same level machado and trout is better than harper . he is the best player. .
He still not worth that money either. Maybe mike trout but he’s not in same category with trout and machado
Harper is a way better player than Machado. Obviously not as good as Trout. But Harpers skill set ages much better than Machado, and he’s actually older than Harper. (only by a few months, but still) . They’re all tremendous players, of course.
Harper has proven that he can have bad years already. I wouldn’t offer up longer than 4-years if I were a bidder.
Well, his one bad year was due to an injury he played through – he was still a 2-win player last year. There’s no way he’s taking a 4-year deal. Unless it’s like 4 years/160 million or something. (Which would actually be a smart idea for a team).
Based on feedback from my last thread, I’ve updated the future 2023 Yankees starting lineup:
C: G Sanchez
1B: S Otani/A Judge platoon
2B: C Correa
SS: G Torres
3B: M Machado
LF: E Thames
CF: M Trout
RF: B Harper
DH: P Goldschmidt
Bench: R Refsnyder, B Posey, J Mateo, C Frazier
Refsnyder on that team..guy can’t even stay with current team!
Lmao someone plays baseball video games too much and puts all their favorites on one squad.
They’ll definitely sign Lindor as soon as he hits he market with his buddy Correa. 😉
With Kris Bryant in Scranton for depth
I think he’ll go short term to Baltimore. I dont think he’ll ever win in Washington. Their window is closing.fast. adam Jones and harper 3-4 is scary. Not Schwarber Bryzzo scary but teams would pitch around to get to the other. They’ll see more pitches. Plus Davis and trumbo behind them. 2 years 45mil opt out after first year. Option for 3rd year. He wont get 400.mil if he does he’s going to L.A.
Kris Bryant is a cubs for life. They get him at at least 290/9. That won’t be til 2019 when hopefully he has a couple more mvps and ws wins
Bryce in Denver.
I’m not a Rox fan or anything but I think that would be hysterical if he got to hit there 81 games a year.
They’ll have to have the all star game there again sooner or later. I can’t wait to see harper trout Stanton and Schwarber (for the home town guy)among others go to the all star game at wrigley. Just imagine the countless broken windows on waveland and Sheffield. Probably some broken bulbs on the score board too