With free agency now open across Major League Baseball, it’s only a matter of time before we see a pair of players receive the richest contracts in the history of the sport. Outfielder Bryce Harper and shortstop/third baseman Manny Machado, two in-their-prime, Hall of Fame-level talents, figure to dominate headlines as long as they’re unsigned. It seems inevitable that both players will reel in contracts in excess of $300MM, and that may be a conservative estimate. Indeed, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Jeff Todd project Harper to land a 14-year, $420MM pact and Machado to sign a 13-year, $390MM deal. There would be substantial risk in either of those contracts, needless to say, but it’s not every winter that a couple 26-year-old superstars reach free agency.
For a little while longer, the richest free-agent contract in major league history will belong to now-retired third baseman Alex Rodriguez, whom the Yankees re-signed to a 10-year, $275MM accord after the 2007 season. However, a current Yankee, outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, owns the largest deal ever. He signed that contract – a 13-year, $325MM extension – in 2014 as a member of the typically small-spending Marlins, whose new ownership group felt it had no choice but to get Stanton’s money off the books last winter on the heels of an NL MVP-winning season.
It’s now conceivable that the Yankees will sign at least one of Harper or Machado to join Stanton in their lineup, but their interest in/need for either is unclear. Even if the Yankees do chase one or both of those players, they’ll face quite a bit of competition from other teams capable of handing out mega-deals.
Like Stanton, Harper already has an NL MVP on his resume, having won the award in 2015. That still easily ranks as Harper’s best season, but the longtime National has starred in nearly every campaign since he made his much-anticipated debut as a 19-year-old in 2012. Dating back to then, the lefty-swinging Harper ranks 10th in the majors in wRC+ (140, meaning he has been 40 percent better than the average offensive player) and 12th in position player fWAR (30.7, good for 4.6 per 600 plate appearance).
If there are any legitimate knocks on Harper, they may be his defense and injury history. Regarding the former, Harper ranked second to last among all major leaguers this past season in both Defensive Runs Saved (minus-26) and Ultimate Zone Rating (minus-14.4). The defensive struggles he displayed in 2018 may be a reason to worry or simply a fluke, as the metrics viewed Harper as a competent outfielder during his previous seasons. Although Harper didn’t hold his own with the glove in ’18, he did appear in a career-high 159 games. The durability he showed off last season couldn’t have come at a better time for Harper, who missed 51 games in 2017 and whom injuries have limited to fewer than 120 contests two other times.
With the exception of 2014, in which he only played 82 games, availability hasn’t been a problem for Machado. Since 2013, his first full season, Machado has racked up at least 156 appearances on five occasions. He played 162 games this past year, which he divided between the lowly Orioles and the NL-winning Dodgers, and turned in his third campaign with at least 6.0 fWAR.
Going back to ’13, Machado sits seventh among position players in fWAR (29.0, which equals 4.5 per 600 PA), though he hasn’t achieved his value in quite the same way as Harper. From 2013-18, 47 players combined for a higher wRC+ than the righty-hitting Machado’s 121, though that’s still an outstanding number. Furthermore, he happens to be coming off a personal-best offensive campaign (141 wRC+) in which he belted 30-plus home runs (37) for the fourth straight year.
There’s little doubt Machado will continue to be a formidable offensive player in the coming years, but whether he’ll serve as a defensive force could hinge on his position. Machado has been an all-world third baseman throughout his career, yet he prefers shortstop – his primary position in 2018, when he logged minus-13 DRS and minus-6.5 UZR.
The biggest concern with Machado, though, may come down to character. He didn’t leave teams or fans with the best impression during this fall’s postseason, in which he was accused of being a dirty player. He also came under fire in the playoffs for a lack of hustle, including during the Dodgers’ World Series loss to the Red Sox, and admitted to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic in mid-October: “Obviously I’m not going to change, I’m not the type of player that’s going to be ’Johnny Hustle,’ and run down the line and slide to first base and … you know, whatever can happen. That’s just not my personality, that’s not my cup of tea, that’s not who I am.”
That’s not the mindset a team wants from any of its players, let alone a face-of-the-franchise type. Nevertheless, it’s unlikely to deter some club from awarding the incredibly gifted Machado one of the two biggest pacts in baseball history. For better or worse, he and Harper are primed to occupy a massive chunk of their next teams’ payrolls for several years to come. The question is: Which of the two do you believe has a better chance to live up to his next contract?
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Who ever is cheaper
Some front office with an over-reliance of analytics will look at Machado’s WAR and use it to justify the type of contract that is being suggested. They won’t have a clue that his poor work ethic, immaturity, lack of drive and inconsistent offense will quickly turn his contract into a major hindrance for the team. The only guys that truly deserve such exorbitant money are Trout and Mookie. Can’t wait to see which team is foolish enough to sign Machado.
No one hands out a contract based on WAR lol
Jason Heyward.
Would you rather a guy hit .240 with 10 home runs and a great attitude and lots of hustle, or hit .285, with 35 homers, but fail to leg out some infield hits and maybe grouse to the press and rub his opponents the wrong way now and then?
All things being equal, I’ll take the better player. Unfortunately for Machado (or rather, whoever signs him) all things aren’t equal. A-Rod, attitude (and steroids) or not, put up FAR better numbers than either of these players when he signed his mega deal. He was regularizing hitting north of .300, topping 40 home runs, eclipsing 120 RBI, while also providing elite defense and swiping 20+ bases. He was a true 5-tool player, and pretty elite in all 5. Obviously steroids played a big part in the power numbers at least, but today’s top stars just don’t measure up to the stats that got him that deal with Texas (or his second with the Yankees).
Now, both Harper and Machado are young enough where there’s legitimately room to grow as they enter their prime, and this is a rare case where a team may actually end up paying for the player’s best years (as opposed to paying for past performance)– I’m just struggling to justify the contracts MLBTR is predicting. Is .280 with 30HR really worth 30M just because they’re young?
Someone will think so, and maybe for the right team that starved for offense, and has no star power and the financial ability, maybe it’ll be worth it.
If the Yankees sign either, I suppose I’ll live with it, and justify that it’ll at least be worth it for the first few years. And if it helps them win a title, than that’s all that matters.
Polls not working
Are you an app user? I am and the last two polls have not worked/did not have a link.
This one says:
[polldaddy poll=10155766]
Poll is not working for me on app or through browser on pc
Yea I have the app and it’s not working. The NFL one never works for the app lol.
Both of these deals have the potential to cripple an organization for a very long time. 420 or 390…
ATL, who some are mentioning as a suitor (oddly), was crippled by the largest free agent signing in their history: BJ Upton at $75.25MM – and then traded away Kimbrel to shed his salary. That deal crippled us for years…and Harper and Machado are talking about getting contracts between 5-6x larger than that. Needless to say how that could affect ATL if it doesn’t pan out.
Not advocating for signing either, but the Braves financial situation is much better with the new stadium and The Battery. Plus, the current team is headed in a much better direction than back when BJ Upton was signed.
Yes, but it is still the same owner and same perceived bad TV deal that lasts through 2028. Would be very interesting if they heavily backloaded that deal to when the TV deal runs out (and a new one is in place) where the financial floodgates should runneth over. You could make an argument that a high-profile athlete from now until the deal runs out could boost ratings that inflates the future price and could essentially pay for itself. Yes, that’s all speculation but is interesting to think about.
Most long term deals are crippling at some point, they rarely work out, some players are never the same again after receiving the giant contract, age always plays into it, and there is always the chance of injury.
But not to the point where the player does nothing, changes his name out of shame and is run out of town on a red eye. (It didn’t happen that way, but should have).
I like that
Would it really be crippling though? Every Team has the pockets to pony up for either of them, it’s just some owners are more frugal than others about how they balance their Team sheets.
Odds are, they are both going to big-market Teams, and big-market Teams can afford them comfortably. The back end of the deals aren’t going to look flash, but that’s the offset for underpaying them at the front end – it all balances out.
It may hinder future deals, but by no means will it be crippling. And if it is, that’s a reflection of Ownership using it as a reason not to spend, not because they fiscally can’t.
I think neither goes that high, and I’d argue Machado only gets $240-50. I think Harper is in $350 land.
Harper
Both guys supremely overrated, not just Bryce.
harper bad defense will only get worse and he gets hurt every year it seem like.
I like Harper. The guy is passionate and hustles. As a Dodgers fan I was disgusted watching Machado not hustle on ground balls or when he hit the ball to the wall and only got a single or when he had those lazy strikeouts because he had already checked out and figured the game was over. Good luck to whoever gets him dealing with that headache and the frustration of him giving up and not hustling
It looked like all that behavior was done, but I guess you cant hide your true self forever.
That’s the Dodgers in a nutshell. Expect to get everything handed to them. All the free agents and all the prospects. As a Giants fan I can tell you every WS title 2010, 2012, and 2014 were all built on hustle guys always trying their hardest. Every series we were the underdog each year. M
What free agents? Max Muncy, Justin Turner, Tom Koehler? I think your consfused with the Giants who spend a ton on free agents just to move up 1 spot in the standings. As for prospects, sorry the dodgers draft well?
Paul_25 – don’t act like the Giants don’t spend. They had one of the highest payrolls in the game this year, and project to spend at least $200m over each of the next two seasons.
The Dodgers haven’t bought up everyone – contrary to your uninformed opinion.
Growing up I saw plenty players go through LA. Gary Sheffield, Rafael Furcal, Manny Ramirez, Kevin Brown, Hanley Ramirez, and Adrian Gonzalez. Plenty more, tell me how many caliber players the Giants have brought in through free agency. Barry Bonds and that’s it no one else was ever as good as any of those guys. Dodgers team now was drafted and linternational signings. They are a good team. Turner is great player worked hard to get where he is at and plays hard every inning. He deserves all the money he is getting. Just saying when I think Dodgers I think of guys who are arrogant and think they don’t have to hustle and run out anything. Machado and Puig types.
Every Team has players that others dislike with a passion. For every Puig, there’s a Bumgarner – who acts like a child throwing a petty tantrum when someone offends him on a day he woke up grumpy.
For every Machado, there’s a Hunter Strickland, who beans a guy a year after giving up a home run. Literally, plunked him because he came off second best once upon a time.
It’s difficult to throw stones at the character of someone else’s beloved team, when your own has examples of poor behavior and immaturity.
It’s kinda weird to criticize the Dodgers FA acquisitions when:
1. Four of the six Dodgers you listed were acquired via trade
2. The Giants best all-time player was a FA acquisition (Bonds)
3. The Giants had a higher payroll last year than the Dodgers and traded for players based on name recognition rather than true talent (McCutchen, Longoria)
4. In 2010 and 2012 the Giants had a higher payroll than the Dodgers. So yeah, the whole “trying to buy a championship” thing rings hollow
Paul_25: I’m a Giant’s fan and I couldn’t disagree with you more. I’ll root like hell against them, but they’ve been very good at finding talent that any team could also have had. Sure, they’ve also been a little bit lucky but there isn’t a team out there that won anything that wasn’t a little bit lucky. I resent it when bitter Giants-hating fans say the Giants won their 3 titles on luck. No team wins even one WS on luck alone, let alone 3, and no team wins 6 consecutive division titles, (with 2 trips to the WS) on luck alone either.
‘10 Giants had the 9th highest payroll in MLB.
‘12 Giants had the 7th highest payroll in MLB.
‘14 Giants had the 5th highest payroll in baseball.
Back in the day they signed Zito to the largest contract ever for a pitcher, that was about 15 years after making Bonds the highest paid player in the game. On average they had the 7th highest payroll during their 3 championship seasons – top 25%. Why are you making it sound like they don’t spend? They spend. They spent over $100M more than their three WS competitors. You’re talking like they’re the A’s or Rays.
The Dodgers were slight favorites last year and heavy underdogs this year. Giants were dogs all three years – so? You think they were built on hustle and not kick-ass pitching?
Tell me Machado is a complete jerk – that’s 100% correct. He’s the biggest reason I rooted for the Red Sox. But don’t go down that bizarre Dodger rabbit hole. Not when you have Strickland on your roster (how’d that Harper thing go?) and had rostered for fifteen years one of the biggest cheaters of his generation. Dodgers had Machado for a few months, the Giants had Bonds for fifteen years.
What crap! Giant fans are all crybabies and tired of all ur bullshit crybaby comments!
Not according to Papelbon lol
Harper puts the exact same amount of hustle in as Machado. Both have had horrific injuries running into 1B so you cant fault either of them. Without Machado the Dodgers would not have been playing in the world series plain and simple
“Harper puts the exact same amount of hustle in as Machado.“
You couldn’t be more wrong.
Harper also gets benefit of not being “dirty” player
Harper has been benched for not hustling and is often lethargic going down the lone. I really dont care what he does, but he sure isn’t “johnny hustle”
Some people have very selective memories. Wasn’t Harper choked out by Papelbon(sp?) for lack of hustle?
For the record I think its Johnny wad, and Charlie Hustle…lol
“Some people have very selective memories. Wasn’t Harper choked out by Papelbon(sp?) for lack of hustle?”
We’re talking about the here and now. Mannys lack of hustle in the WS was weeks ago and is a cause for concern.
And in what world is choking someone ok? Are you justifying choking someone, if they display lack of hustle? No wonder your boy, Jonathon Papelbum is out of the league. The Irony… Your boy Manny choked in the WS.
How do you equate what he said to “Are you justifying choking someone, if they display lack of hustle?” BTW Harper hasn’t exactly torn it up in the post season either 19 games 89 PA .211/.315/.487.
As for lack of hustle “here and now” does July of this year qualify? That was the last time it was made public that he was called aside by his manager for not hustling.
cbssports.com/mlb/news/nats-manager-dave-martinez-…
Both have a history of being lackadaisical at times.
Johnny Hustle, medium hustle, whatever, Harper is not quite in the same bush league as Manny “I don’t want to run” Machado. I’ve never quite heard a star player like Machado admit to not wanting to run to first on a ground ball.
Harper’s character issues are more of the personal type: he’s a hothead to gets into fights with opposing–and even friendly– players. The aforementioned Papelbon incident had as much to do with Harper’s jawing at his own teammate as it did with Papelbon’s going too far in trying to hold him accountable.
I don’t want Harper (or Machado) on the Yankees if he causes the other team to throw at Aaron Judge, or worse, cause a brawl that gets Severino injured…
He doesn’t “hustle” most of the time, not sure which Harper you’ve been watching
Machado isn’t going to have the advantage of playing in Camden Yards 81 times a year. Throw his lack of hustle, poor attitude and tantrums into the mix and you have a true recipe for disaster.
Due to the position and glove, on a straight performance basis, Machado. That said, I’d be wary of giving record money to a dirty player who loafs it, even in the World Series, at the end of his walk year.
Agreed
Harper by a mile. While I wouldn’t pay $400 mil for him, he has a skill set and personality that make him much more likely to sustain at least decent production. I think Machado could be one of the worst contracts in the history of the sport almost immediately after its signed. He’s a headcase, and he posted a .310 obp in ’17 which is a prime year. Wait until he declines.
interesting….I see it exactly the opposite. Harper’s poor 2018 season wasn’t a fluke. It is the continuation of a decline. He has peaked. His swing mechanics are so effed up, he looks very tentative and awkward at the plate. Manny has that fluid, effortless swing and the ball flies off his bat. Head case, sure. both of them.
Decline? He got on base at the 9th highest clip in all of mlb. Last 4 years combined, he’s 4th in obp and 5th in ops. Guys ranked higher are Martinez (age 27-30), Votto (31-34), and Goldschmidt obp (27-30). Pretty good names and he’s still coming into those age brackets.
Honestly, maybe I’m just a cynic, or spoiled watching Trout.
I don’t think either of these guys is worth the hype.
Machado proved his character this playoffs and it’s long been mentioned about his game. He has amazing talent, but will not be a plus to many clubhouses. Doesn’t seem particularly marketable either.
Harper is a different story. He is definitely marketable, sure. He has had basically one and a half amazing years. Sure, he hits the long ball, but is he really among the best in the game if you ignore the hype and marketing?
I suspect both contracts will look Pujolsian before even half way through the deals if they both get into the 10+ year’s end of this.
100% agree
The fact trout isn’t getting paid more than either of these guys is ridiculous, trout is so overrated it boggles my mind people are so enamored with a guy who is a .250 hitter and only hits hrs and walks. Not to mention he has only played at a level even remotely close to trout 1 year.
Think you meant Harper is overrated.
Or he might have meant Trout is underrated.
Let’s face it, these two guys are being hyped because they are free agents. Same thing with foreign stars who come to MLB, there’s lots of hype until they sign with a team and then they tend to quietly fizzle out.
Most of us agree the best position players in the game are Trout, Betts and probably Judge. All three are worth quite a bit more on the open market than Harper or Machado.
Trout and Betts, sure. Too early on Judge (if we’re pointing at 1.5 good years for Harper, so too for Judge).
Trout, Betts, Arenado, Altuve for my money as top-drawer position players. A few others are poised to make a case soon, too (Judge potentially included if he can stay in a position for a while despite his stature).
Trout signed an extension pal. The day he hits FA he’ll make a whole lot more than either one of these jokers.
Trout will never be paid unless he get away from LA Angles , they suck and have for years and will for years to come with or without Trout
Trout will never be paid unless he get away from LA Angles , they suck and have for years and will for years to come with or without Trout
Their record is irrelevant to how many dollars they’ll spend. Pujols brings in cash every year.
Nailed it
I doubt they end up “Pujolsian” – Pujols was 32 in the first year of his LAA deal. And that’s 32 by the book – it’s believed by many that he’s older than he claims. He could very well have been 34+ when that contract began.
Both Harper and Machado will still be 26 when next season kicks off.
Yep.
Harper= A Cardinal
Machado just because harper has been inconsistent over his career
Harper all day everyday.
Machado blowing bubbles, while trying to beat a hit, that happened to be the final out in a WS game tells you all you need to know.
mobile.twitter.com/barstoolsports/status/105639773…
Good luck spending on Machado. If the dude’s this nonchalant in WS, one can only imagine how he does after $200M…+ (Supposedly, lower end of what he’ll get)
Harper all day regardless of greater “need”
I’d pay top dollar and years for Harper. I’d pay Manny but the absolute max I’d give him is 10 years.
I don’t like anything about Machado I hope he gets half of what he wants and deserves.
Neither will be a Dodger and I don’t think either should be. The front office doesn’t do the obvious. I could see a trade for another top of the rotation starter and a couple of pieces for the bullpen. With Seager back the offense should be fine.
And manny choked in the world series too.
Guy named Bryzzo talking about choking in the playoffs. I see the irony
Completely agree. I don’t ever foresee this FO offering anyone a record-setting type deal.
If you were to list the best 6 seasons of the two combined, you would see this
Bruce – 9.3 in 2015
Manny – 6.6 in 2015
Manny – 6.3 in 2016
Manny – 6.2 in 2018
Manny – 5.0 in 2013
Bruce – 4.8 in 2017
If not for that 1 season 4 years ago, I doubt this question would seriously even be asked. Without it, there is no comparison between the two
*Bryce – a name my phone apparently doesn’t want me to type
Camden Yards is hitter friendly, when Machado played in LA his offensive stats slightly regressed.
WAR doesn’t work like that. It is park adjusted.
Specifically in 2018, Manny was worth 3.8 in 96 games in Baltimore, 2.4 in 66 games with Los Angeles – and that is a very similar pace in both locations (2.4 in 66 put over 96 is 3.5, just slightly under the 3.8 from Baltimore)
Why is it not showing vote counts anymore? Someone hijacking poll information for there own publications?
If effort’s being questioned in World Series of all places…!!! Pity any franchise that gives you anywhere close to $300MM
Phillies should pass on both and wait for Trout. 12 years 500K. Worth every penny.
500 K would be a steal for trout lol
Sorry, 500M.
I wouldn’t want either one.
13 or 14 years neither,Harper for Eight Guaranteed,two Options Max 350 Mil.Don’t care about Manny being Manny
Neither one will live up to the contract. Both will carry several dead salary years at the end of 13 or 14 years.
If either of them get 13 or 14 year contracts at 30/per, that salary will no longer seem so high when the new superstars are getting 45-50 million or more per year.
Guys like Arrieta and Darvish got 25 million per year last offseason, when that was probably the high end of ace money less than a decade before.
So you would not mind paying out approx $150 mill for nothing when each hits 35 and most likely neither will be worth anything near $30 mil a season?
Pitching is needed bad.
If Angels get serious about trading Trout I would take him over both Harper & Machado anyday. Hands down
Well Trout is one of the best to ever play the game so I don’t think you’d be in the minority
Harper hit .249 last year…both of these players remind me of the Angels blowing their load on Pujols.
As a Dodger fan, Manny should sign with the Phillies and Harper should go to the Mets.
His BA was .249, but he lead the league in walks and had a .496slg% leading to a 133ops+. Even when his BA is low he is still a force at the plate.
I guess I just don’t see enough bidders in the league that will fight to run the final number up over $400m for either of them.
It only takes 2 eager teams or in the case of Texas with A-Rod, only 1 since they dealt with a lying agent who got them to outbid themselves.
That was in the middle of the golden age of contracts that all of baseball now uses to talk themselves out of overdoing it on FA.
Two winters from now, Trout and Betts will both be Free Agents…..now THAT is a contest……these two guys? Harper, but only because he can get better with age….Manny won’t even bother…..
Agreed on both counts!
Bryce will make Hall of Fame. He’s that good
I see Harper wanting to justify his payday a lot more than Machado.
Who will age better. Who do you think at age 32 will be more of a threat at bat. Machado is not long for SS. But at third he’s one of the best defensively. Harper is not long for cf and he’s average defensively. Machado plays the more premiere position but Harper left handed bat should put up better overall offensive numbers. The Mets should be all in on Machado and the Angels should be all in on Harper. Harper and Trout could be such a destructive force that the Angels should be all in. If the Yanks didn’t trade for Stanton last year I would have said Harper to the Yanks is a no brainer. Same with Andujar pure potential lessons the need to spend heavily on Machado.
Harper hasn’t been a regular in CF since 2012. Only about 1/3 of his starts in 2018 were in CF, which was the most since 2012. He’ll be in RF wherever he signs.
We may need to look at their mothers.
You gotta do that before you marry the girl…
true…
Let’s be honest everyone can question Machados work ethic all they want but the reality is Harper has been the one who has been incredibly inconsistent and quite frankly downright average some years during his tenure in the league
Not sure how this is really a question because even a lazy Machado seems to produce at a greater level than a passionate Harper
I’m confused: where’s the poll….?
….out getting the kielbasa??????
Boom
I think Harper get 7 years $220 million
Machado gets 5 years $190
5 years at 190? Then he will be a Yankee. He will be around 300! Fact.
Both Machado and Harper to the Yankees. Yankees use extra people for trades. Lineup for the ages.
To me, it’s clear that it’s Harper, but I’m not going to minimize Machado to make that case. Both are now just entering their prime, should get better, and either one will be a boost to his new team. But Harper just has better career numbers. Among active players Harper has the 7th highest OPS+ with a 139, Machado is tied for 35th with a 121. For career wRC+, Harper has a 140, and Machado has a 120.
And yet over the last 3 seasons, Manny has been the 13th most valuable position player in the game with 15.2 WAR
Bryce? 34th most valuable at just 11.2
That’s because hitting is only 1/2 of the game. It’s also the reason Lorenzo Cain has been more valuable than Bryce Harper the last 5 years, even with Harpers fluke 2015 – as I showed you in the other thread.
Despite the bat, the overall value of Harper on a yearly basis is much closer to Average than it is Elite. On the other hand, Machado has been in Elite territory in 4 of his last 6 seasons.
And if you expand this to 4 years, they are basically equal.
Why make arbitrary end points if the data changes dramatically if you make it 2 or 4 years?
That’s what we call a cherry pick
10, 5 year or 3 year time frames are generally the normal and accepted periods people look at when evaluating past production. Sometimes 2 is used. 4? Almost never
Now te only reason you want to use the dramaticly more arbitrary 4 years is to get to include Harper”s fluke 2015, but also not have to include the year prior. That is called attempting to cherry-pick to include that fluke Harper has never shown an ability to replicate at all.
You are desperate to include that fluke though because the last 3 seasons just haven’t been all that impressive at all
But as you saw in the last thread, Lorenzo Cain has been better than Harper in the last 5 seasons, last 3 seasons, last 2 seasons and last season, while over the last 4 seasons to include the 2015 fluke for you, he was still almost as good.
Machado? Well he’s been better than Harper on any breakdown you want. 5 years, 4 years, 3 years, 2 years, 1 years. Harper, even when including the fluke 2015, just hasn’t been as valuable as Manny, period.
I’m not desperate about anything, I just find your outline cherry picked.
Harper is the superior hitter, if you want to pick arbitrary end points, go for it, but this year and 2016 are the only years Machado has topped Harper in wRC+, while he still loses to Harper in xwOBA.
Machado can be good offensively, but he’s truly a .370 wOBA guy (based on running xwOBA numbers) and Harper is more of a .385-.390 (same criteria)
Machado is better defensively, but neither are very good at center/short. Machado is a stud at third.
I’m gonna bank on the superior offensive player for the next decade, not the guy that needs his legs and range to create his WAR
And if you are worried about the numbers being cherry picked, Harper has a career 140 wRC+, Manny a 120 and they are equal in WAR
Oh, and Griffey from the other thread? 131
You have intentionally manipulated stats throughout both threads. I’m not sure why (Machado fan, maybe hate Harper?) for some reason. But if you remove any bias, Harper is the obvious guy to choose moving forward.
And 63% of poll users agree, despite Harper likely recieving a larger contract and still costing his acquiring team a draft pick.
That should tell you the difference from the two.
Why not both?
Harp
Neither should really be an option.
The poll should have a “neither” option.
These speculative Machado/Harper contracts won’t look too bad once Trout hits FA.
they are both punks who think they are bigger than the game they both can go to a hot place
Honestly it’s mannys attitude that is probably influencing this poll. He’s a more consistent performer than Harper and has been over his career. He had a poor 17 but his xwoba far outpaced the number he actually put up. I watched him frequently that year and he was hitting the ball hard. His attitude is very offputting and his lack of hustle makes you hate him but I don’t think he doesn’t put the work in. He’s in the cage working on things like everyone else and to this point he’s been much more consistent.
People like to drill him for not taking walks but he doesn’t strike out very much either. Some guys are up there to hit the ball not just stand on first. I think we get too caught up on drawing walks. You certainly need some guys up there who aren’t afraid to draw a walk by not everyone on your team needs to be a walk machine. Some guys are going to be up there to hit and he generally does that quite well.
He plays a scarcer position and provides premium defense. (At 3rd) But his D At SS wasn’t bad after moving to LA either. I don’t like the guy either but at this point he’s the better value.
Machado is supreme villain #1, so I hope he goes to NYY to torture their fans for 13/390.
Honestly, I think 5/165 is more likely than those 13 or 14 year deals. Long term deals are always astronomically bad.
Giants will Bryce 8 year for 340 mill.
8 years 340?! You are predicting he signs a 42.5 million a year contract? I actually do hope the Giants make that offer because it will essentially eliminate you as a contender for the next decade
Harper
It depends how long the contracts are. Both players are 26. If a team signs either of them to 13 or 14 years, the contract will be bad at the end. Neither player is likely to be very productive at 39 or 40. I can see a team like the Phillies giving Harper 10 or 11 years. He would live up to that contract for most of that contract, but who knows how productive he will be at 36 or 37. As for Machado, he has the ability to be productive offensively until he is 36 or 37, but his character questions could be an issue. He will get ripped to shreds by the fans & media for not hustling and dirty plays if he plays in cities like Philadelphia or New York. I wonder what Machado would do if the Yankees offered him a contract for like 6 years at $45 million a season. Would he take less years at a high value?
The game will evolve so that big corner bats who only hit for 3 true outcomes become obsolete, and Harper will be a dinosaur by the time his contract is up. Power/HR totals are already being devalued, just ask Moustakas and Chris Carter. Manny may be a bum but his value on defense is undeniable, and he provides more tangible value while being a harder player to replace.
See Puljos…..
who/what is Puljos?
As an owner/player/fan, I “play” the game to, hopefully, win Championships.
Imo, this debate can be boiled down to how you answer this:
Do I want you on my team …if you can’t play with passion, enthusiasm, and effort during the World Series, at least?
Before the playoffs I would have said Machado but I was just to turned off by the guy.
Just stop on the Harper business. At minus 26 runs last season, Bryce was the second worst defensive player in all of baseball. Think about that! At age 26, he’s a broken down old man.
JD Martinez is far more fit at 31 than Harper is at 26. He’s also a far more productive hitter who just enjoyed his best season after signing a 5-year deal for $110M. Why would any team give Harper even as much? Awful contracts stem from paying a player for what they used to be instead of where they are headed (hello Howard and Pujols and Cabrera). Age is only a number. In Harper’s case, his baseball age is more like 36 than 26.
Nothing you said here is technically “wrong” but Harper has always passed the ultimate eyeball test. His swing and mechanics were near perfect coming into the league. The injuries have taken a toll, but the eyeball test still tells you Harper the one with the higher ceiling.
But I think because of what you said, its safe to say Machado has a much higher floor in the early years of the deal.
Why do you think harper’s DRS was that bad? Spouting that number is irrelevant unless you plan to play him in center field. He’s not a CF plain and simple. Stick him in a corner and he’s +/- league average.
Harper played twice as many innings in RF, than he did in CF this season. He isn’t a good defensive player regardless of position.
They both are incredibly good players, they both have some flaws (particularly between their ears), they both will make a lot of money. You can make a believable case for either one depending on which one you decided you liked more before looking at their stats.
If you take out 2015 for Harper, how do you make the case?
No one seems to be able to do that, instead relying on it almost exclusively to make their argument.
Without that single season he has shown no ability to even get close to producing again, he’s a pretty good player in his prime. Merely pretty good in his prime is no where near the contract being talked about though.
Going Harper is a hope that he gets much better than he has been over his last few years and that maybe he can become that 2015 player again. What you do not want to see is the production he has put up in 4 of the last 6 seasons
Going Manny is just hoping he continues to produce as he has in 4 of the last 6 seasons
You’re paying Haper solely for potential; your paying Manny for his results shown
If one were to go up and down a thread trying to sell Machado over Harper over and over again, that would be one decent point to keep repeating.
I think Machado cost himself $100 million by not being “Johnny hustle” in the playoffs as he put it. Harper’s intensity and hustle will make him a guy you want on your team even after his skills start to diminish.
Machado seems to me like the next Manny Ramirez. We’re gonna have Manny being Manny moments.
In his book, Omar Vizquel addressed “Manny being Manny.” He said that while he has a bad reputation and certainly frustrates his teammates, that he’s actually really nice and fun to be around. While he didn’t say this outright, Vizquel seemed to be suggesting that Manny Ramirez is just a little dumb or slow. LOL…
MACHADO, on the other hand, is just a selfish jerk.
Machado dirty plays. youtube.com/watch?v=AnKn67tgFRQ
Neither of these guys can or will live up to $400M. I think Machado comes closer than Harper, though, partly due to his excellent defense at 3B. The other reason would be that his hitting style seems to have more longevity. I don’t expect “3 outcomes” types to age as well. Harper relies on the homers (though he has often shown an ability to do more than just that) while Machado a little more on any solid contact.
Harper to Giants because they are willing to spend the money. Machado to Phils because they need help on the left side of the infield.
The Giants have kind of already had Harper for the last few years – they just call him Brandon Belt
Sure, his raw offensive numbers haven’t looked quite as impressive, but he plays in the park which suppresses LH power more than any another.
Would be an interesting experiment seeing just what it does to Harper’s though (as opposed to the hitters stadium that is National’s Park)
Edit to say Harper has had just 19 games there, but the .164/.305/.284/.588 line in them is not encouraging
They’re both great players but with ones character in question, and his lack of hustle vs the others passion which will land him on the DL more than not, Plus the monster contacts they’re going to command, I’d stay clear of both of them.
*End of run-on sentence.
Neither. Bryce breaks down by age 35, and Machado attitude gets worse once he gets paid.
So…. 10 years of Harper takes him to 35….
I’ll start by changing the narrative a bit. If both were always healthy players(Harper is not) and both played hard and fast( Machado does not) I think these guys are a coin flip and you couldn’t pick the wrong one. That being said, things as they stand I don’t think either gets the length that’s predicted. Harper can and probably will spend time on the shelf and Machado learned some very bad habits in Baltimore. Which in itself still falls back on the player because he should know better. He seems to feel entitled. If I’m picking I take Harper. Give me hustle and grit any day. My best guess…. Harper resigns with the Nationals and Machado ends up with the Yankees. Both on shorter deals for less $ than projected.
Machado didn’t learn his bad habits in Baltimore. They were always there. There’s not a more old school manager than Buck Showalter out there. Might be the reason you’ve seen him act up more frequently in LA or it’s just the spotlight on him.
Maybe i’m letting the last year or of FA influence my thinking too much, but i think there is almost zero chance either of them get 13+ year deals. those days are over, the GMs are no longer THAT stupid.
the last excessively long contract (Stanton) was put to ink by an owner who knew he would not be seeing it through.
I wouldn’t be surprised if both of them max out at 8 years. No one is still dumb enough to sign guys until they are 40 (i hope..)
These guys max out at about 10 years and about $300M. Even then, those teams will regret the signings sooner rather than later.
I still think Dierkes and Co. were just trying to make waves/gain recognition for their proposed contracts.
An X-factor could always be an egotistical owner trying to show off the size of his… “stack of cash” in which the “value” of the deal won’t be measured in outcomes on the field.
I’m a huge Nats fan. Watch almost every game. Harper has had plenty of issues with not running out ground balls. He also has a bit of a temper, which tends to get him tossed from time to time.
Machado is a more consistent hitter, better defensively, and much more durable.
If you watch Harper play every day, he changes his stance, leg kick, hand position, and/or bat angle, ALL the time, often during a single game. He’s constantly losing his mechanics. The last six years, he’s had one great season, one good season (cut short by another injury) and four marginal seasons.
IMO he will never be consistent enough to justify a long term mega contract.
albert pujols
barry zito
freddie freeman
if you are asking if which player will live up to their deal the insinuation is one of them wont, so why even promote at 13yr 400 mil contract? i just literally googled bad sf oakland contract and zitos name came up. freeman was exemplary of the 3.
must be an agent run site.
My god I hate the obsession with advanced stats on this page.
Why isn’t ‘Neither’ a voting option?
I don’t think people are thinking the Machado situation through in a rational way. He appeared to be a guy who would hit 3,000 hits with 450 to 500 HRs. He has won a platinum glove. Guys who have played that well and are projected to do that well on the left side of the infield are rare and maybe once in a lifetime. Based on that he was projected to get 300M to 400M. Then he kicked a guy. Does not change the projections or hurt your teams chances if your player kicks someone. Maybe not your type of guy but that is it. Then he admits he does not hustle. Which we already know. Which still allowed him to put up great numbers. Which should not prevent great numbers. It’s just his speaking of the obvious that has the masses feeling he is now not employable. Maybe he is a jerk. Maybe he is too honest. But he is a generational talent. Nothing has changed that would impact his performance and that matters a lot.
Yeah, give me the one with a more consistent history of production and the gold gloves. The heck if he doesn’t hustle out a ground ball. Wake up baseball fans. There is more to the game then just “hustle.”